Displaying items by tag: Forecast

US: Ed Sullivan, the Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Market Intelligence at the Portland Cement Association (PCA), expects that cement consumption will decline in the second half of 2023 due to a worsening general economic outlook. However, he noted that order books for the construction industry were ‘strong’ for at least the next six months and that this would cushion the sector. Sullivan made his comments at a presentation at the World of Concrete conference in Las Vegas.

Sullivan said, "When looking at the big picture of real construction spending and cement consumption this year, we should expect both volumes to soften throughout the year, with significant declines in the second half of 2023." He added, "The downturn is expected to be short-lived as interest rates ease slightly and stronger infrastructure volumes materialise in 2024 and beyond."

Sullivan predicts that the US economy is gradually weakening under the weight of high inflation, rising interest rates and geopolitical turmoil. However, he viewed the occurrence of a recession as unlikely. In the construction sector he forecasts that the private sector will continue decline in 2023 following a drop in 2022. Spending benefits from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law are likely to be muted in 2023 before registering a stronger effect in 2024.

China: Tangshang Jidong Cement expects to record a 46-52% year-on-year drop in its full-year net profit in 2022. Reuters has reported that the producer forecasts a profit of US$198-223m throughout the year, compared to US$413m in 2021.

Vietnam: Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) has forecast 6.1% three-year growth in national coal demand to 115Mt in 2025 from 108Mt in 2022. Four main industries – cement, fertilisers, metal and power generation – are expected to retain over 90% of the combined share of domestic consumption. Vinacomin expects national coal production to increase by 1.3Mt/yr over the period, retaining a 40 – 45% stake in the domestic market. Five-year consumption of imported lignite is forecast to rise to 70 – 75Mt throughout the period up to 2026.

Kenya: Bamburi Cement says that it expects its full-year earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to fall by 25% or more year-on-year during 2022. The Kenyan Wall Street newspaper has reported that the producer attributed the anticipated decline to increased energy costs and reduced cement demand.

During 2021, Bamburi Cement recorded a turnover of US$338m and a profit for the period of US$11.3m.

Ireland: CRH's consolidated sales were US$24.4bn during the first nine months of 2022, up by 13% year-on-year from nine-month 2021 levels. Regional sales grew by 18% in the group's America's Materials business, with a 12% rise in cement sales there, despite a drop in volumes. Elsewhere, for the Europe Materials business, sales remained level year-on-year, and higher pricing offset costs growths in all key markets except Asia and Europe West. The producer's consolidated earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose by 14% to US$4.2bn.

For the full year 2022, CRH expects to record a profit before tax greater than that of US$3.1bn recorded in 2021.

Chief executive officer Albert Manifold said ‘‘Notwithstanding a challenging and volatile cost environment, I am pleased to report further growth in sales, EBITDA and margin during the first nine months of the year. This performance reflects the resilience of our business and the benefits of our integrated and sustainable solutions strategy. The strength of our balance sheet, combined with our relentless focus on disciplined capital allocation, provides further opportunities to create value for all our stakeholders." Manifold added "Looking ahead to the remainder of 2022, we expect to deliver full-year EBITDA of approximately US$5.5bn."

Bangladesh: Crown Cement has estimated the total cost of cement capacity currently unused in Bangladesh at US$1.46bn. The figure is even higher when maintenance costs are included, according to Crown Cement's chief advisor Masud Khan. Over the past 15 years, national cement capacity has nearly quadrupled to 83.3Mt/yr from 22.4Mt/yr, while demand has merely doubled to 46.7Mt/yr from 22.8Mt/yr. Khan estimated the cost per 1Mt/yr of new Bangladeshi cement capacity over the period at US$40m.

Khan said that producers continue to anticipate an acceleration in local cement consumption growth in the medium-term future. Reflecting on the situation up to the end of 2022, he said "They thought if they were not prepared for the growing demand, they would lose their market share. That was why they continued expansion, bearing the burden of excess capacity." Khan forecast a further decline in the industry's capacity utilisation if gross domestic product undergoes a forecast drop during the 2023 financial year, impacting on producers' results for the year.

India: Dalmia Bharat sold 12Mt of cement during the first half of its 2023 financial year, up by 20% year-on-year from 10Mt in the first half of the 2022 financial year. Its income was US$757m, up by 21% year-on-year from US$624m. Meanwhile, the company's earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell by 28% to US$116m from US$161m. The company noted the growth effects of 'fuel price corrections' during the second quarter of 2022, which it expects to increase its profitability during the second half of year.

Managing director and CEO Punit Dalmia said “We are pleased with the performance of the first half of this year despite the intense inflationary environment, and are confident that we will be among the best in the industry, leaving the bad times behind. While the geopolitical turmoil continues, we are confident in the resilience of the Indian economy, which is further cementing its position at the centre of global growth and consumption.” Dalmia continued “In view of the government's continued momentum in the infrastructure sector, driven by the revitalisation of the housing sector, we expect the demand for cement to grow rapidly. Looking ahead, we will remain focused on our capacity expansion progress.”

Dalmia Bharat's 14 integrated cement and grinding plants span 10 Indian states and have a capacity of 37Mt/yr, India's fourth largest.

France: Vicat has revised its full-year 2022 earnings forecast. The group now expects to record a drop in its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). In France and Switzerland, rapidly rising energy costs have outstripped the producer's sales growth so far in 2022, while, in the US, its upgraded Ragland, Alabama, cement plant only entered production following a 'very gradual start-up' in mid-late 2022. Vicat also carried out debottlenecking work on its Kalburgi, India, cement plant during the year to date.

Vicat said that all other markets in which it operates are developing in line with the expectations detailed at the time of the publication of its first-half 2022 results in August 2022.

China: China National Building Material (CNBM) expects its profit to decline by 50% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2022. The group said that this will be due in part to reduced cement sales, increased costs resulting from high coal prices and a 'substantial' decline in the value of its financial assets.

China: China Resources Cement has issued a profit warning for the nine-month period ending on 30 September 2022. The producer said that it expects its profit to 'significantly' decline year-on-year on account of lower sales volumes and an increased cost of sales during the period, compared to the corresponding period in 2021.