Displaying items by tag: Forecast

India: Dalmia Bharat sold 12Mt of cement during the first half of its 2023 financial year, up by 20% year-on-year from 10Mt in the first half of the 2022 financial year. Its income was US$757m, up by 21% year-on-year from US$624m. Meanwhile, the company's earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell by 28% to US$116m from US$161m. The company noted the growth effects of 'fuel price corrections' during the second quarter of 2022, which it expects to increase its profitability during the second half of year.

Managing director and CEO Punit Dalmia said “We are pleased with the performance of the first half of this year despite the intense inflationary environment, and are confident that we will be among the best in the industry, leaving the bad times behind. While the geopolitical turmoil continues, we are confident in the resilience of the Indian economy, which is further cementing its position at the centre of global growth and consumption.” Dalmia continued “In view of the government's continued momentum in the infrastructure sector, driven by the revitalisation of the housing sector, we expect the demand for cement to grow rapidly. Looking ahead, we will remain focused on our capacity expansion progress.”

Dalmia Bharat's 14 integrated cement and grinding plants span 10 Indian states and have a capacity of 37Mt/yr, India's fourth largest.

France: Vicat has revised its full-year 2022 earnings forecast. The group now expects to record a drop in its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). In France and Switzerland, rapidly rising energy costs have outstripped the producer's sales growth so far in 2022, while, in the US, its upgraded Ragland, Alabama, cement plant only entered production following a 'very gradual start-up' in mid-late 2022. Vicat also carried out debottlenecking work on its Kalburgi, India, cement plant during the year to date.

Vicat said that all other markets in which it operates are developing in line with the expectations detailed at the time of the publication of its first-half 2022 results in August 2022.

China: China National Building Material (CNBM) expects its profit to decline by 50% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2022. The group said that this will be due in part to reduced cement sales, increased costs resulting from high coal prices and a 'substantial' decline in the value of its financial assets.

China: China Resources Cement has issued a profit warning for the nine-month period ending on 30 September 2022. The producer said that it expects its profit to 'significantly' decline year-on-year on account of lower sales volumes and an increased cost of sales during the period, compared to the corresponding period in 2021.

Kazakhstan: Steppe Cement's sales were US$68.7m during the first nine months of 2022, up by 13% year-on-year from US$60.6m in the corresponding period in 2021. Its cement sales volumes were 1.36Mt, down by 1% year-on-year from 1.38Mt.

Kazakhstan's cement demand grew by 2% year-on-year to 9.4Mt in the first nine months of 2022. Steppe Cement expects the Kazakh cement market to grow by 2% year-on-year to 11.8Mt throughout 2022. Steppe Cement holds a 15% market share.

Peru: Grupo Gloria subsidiary Yura says that it is contemplating a cement production capacity expansion. The producer says that process optimisation across its Arequipa and Southern Peruvian cement footprint might go some way towards achieving the envisioned growth. It added that any such projects would go hand in hand with a reform of its customer service practices. Yura is also evaluating possible new limestone mining projects at Pampas del Pongo and Zafranal, and an expansion of its lime production.

DF Sud News has reported that Yura expects to increase its Peruvian cement deliveries by 8 – 10% year-on-year in 2022. Its cement, concrete and lime director for Peru, Chile and Bolivia, Julio Cáceres, forecasts that Peru’s construction demand will continue to grow at twice the rate of gross domestic product. He acknowledged that the company’s 2023 results will likely reflect the country’s expected muted growth compared to 2022. Cáceres said that US$700m-worth of private investment across 30 residential projects in Arequipa is currently suspended, pending the publication of the city’s revised metropolitan development plan.

India: Ratings agency Crisil forecasts that the operating profitability of cement producers will decline by around 15% year-on-year to around US$11/t in the 2023 financial year due to growing fuel costs. However, it added that a 17% growth in cement demand in the quarter from April to June 2022 would mitigate the impact of this. It expects that growth in the cement market in the 2023 year will be driven by non-residential sectors such as infrastructure development and commercial projects. By region, growth is anticipated to increase fastest in eastern regions, followed by central and southern regions but the northern and western regions could be more subdued. It added that any significant delay in the reduction of petcoke and coal prices or any company that was unable to increase its cement prices would add further pressure to the market.

South Africa: PPC says that the consumption of cement in South Africa will ‘remain subdued’ without new ‘significant’ infrastructure investments. The producer forecast demand growth of 2.5% year-on-year in 2022. It concluded that growth will likely not suffice to offset its cost inflation.

The company said “PPC will continue its efforts to counter input price inflation through price adjustments, operational efficiencies and improved industrial performance.”

Pakistan: Cherat Cement expects cement consumption in Pakistan to fall by 3 – 4% year-on-year in the 2023 financial year, which will end on 30 June 2023. Amid the general decline, the company foresees a slight rise in areas devastated by recent flooding with the onset of repair and rebuilding works during the second half of the financial year. Exports are expected to fall by 20%, with prices remaining level while costs increase due to the high price of imported coal.

Pakistan Business News has reported that Cherat Cement is reappraising the investment cost and planned commercial operation date of its upcoming 8000 – 9000t/day new cement plant. It previously valued the project at US$158 – 173m.

Vietnam: Cement producers and exporters will pay an additional 5 – 10% tariff on their exports of cement and clinker from 1 January 2023. Viet Nam News has reported that the move aims to bring down local cement prices by increasing supply in the country. These have risen over the past six months, while export prices have remained level.

The Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA) says that its members are struggling to increase exports in a highly competitive export market. In the six months up to the end of August 2022, China, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Taiwan all reduced their imports of Vietnamese cement. The decline included a ‘substantial’ reduction of imports by China and the Philippines. Exporters faced logistical difficulties in shipping cement to the Philippines, while China’s consumption dropped due to new Covid-19 restrictions and low residential construction activity there.

The VNCA forecasts cement production of 108Mt in 2022, against a national demand of 65Mt. It projected that a series of infrastructure projects will bolster domestic consumption between 2022 and 2025.