Displaying items by tag: Forecast

Spain: Consumption of cement in the first eight months of 2021 was 9.58Mt nationally, up by 13% year-on-year from 8.48Mt in the first eight months of 2020. The Spanish Cement Industry Association (Oficemen) says that consumption remains 2% below pre-Covid-19 outbreak levels in the corresponding period of 2019. The El Economista newspaper has reported that the association has forecast full-year cement consumption of 14.6Mt in 2020, slightly below the full-year 2019 figure of 14.7Mt.

President José Cascajero said "These levels put us on the path to have a growth in future years that is hopeful. The recovery of infrastructure, which has returned to being the primary source of demand, and residential building, has allowed both consumption and expectations to be substantially improved since April 2021.”

In 2022, he forecast year-on-year demand growth of 3 - 5%, due in part to the positive impacts of the EU post-Covid-19 outbreak recovery fund. Cascajero warned of the increasing burden of rising electricity prices and CO2 emissions fees and called for ‘structural reforms’ to mitigate their drag on growth.

India: Cement companies produced 82Mt of cement in the three-month period ending on 30 June 2021, the first quarter of the 2022 financial year, corresponding to growth of 54% year-on-year. Production in the quarter declined by 12% quarter-on-quarter, due to the proliferation of new state Covid-19 lockdowns from April 2021 onwards. The Hitavada newspaper has reported that ratings agency ICRA forecast that full-year production will rise by 12% in the 2022 financial year, on account of pent-up demand, growing rural housing demand and a pick-up in infrastructure activity. It nonetheless estimated that production will remain 2% below pre-Covid-19 outbreak 2020 financial year levels, with continuing high costs due to rising fuel prices. In the first quarter of the 2022 financial year, coal prices more than doubled and petcoke prices rose by 98% year-on-year.

Australia: Adbri’s first-half sales in 2021 were US$545m, up by 7% year-on-year from US$508m in the first half of 2020. The group’s cement and clinker volumes increased by 11%. It said that this was due to a rise in demand in the eastern states of Australia and the recommencement of regular supply to a customer in South Australia. The group increased its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to US$64.0m, up by 81% from US$35.3m. Its net profit increased by 95% to US$41.1m from US$21.1m.

CEO Nick Miller said “Adbri delivered a robust first half financial performance for 2021 recording solid growth in revenue and profits with improving margins as demand for construction materials rebounded, supported by increased residential housing activity and infrastructure spending.” He added that full-year 2021 earnings would increase less sharply year-on-year than first-half earnings have, due partly to the anticipated impacts of the opening of a rival cement terminal in New South Wales in the second half of the year.

Germany: Claudius Peters has reported strong order intake for the first half of 2021. Parent company Langley Holdings said that, “if the forecast to year end is met, [it] will be the highest since 2008.” It added that Claudius Peters’ France-based subsidiary was reorganised during the reporting period. Langley Holdings’ revenue fell by 2% year-on-year to Euro363m in the first half of 2021 from Euro370m in the same period in 2020. However, its operating profit increased significantly and it has forecast revenue growth of 15% for the year as a whole.

Brazil: Cement sales totalled 31.5Mt in the first half of 2021, up by 16% year-on-year. The National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) attributed the growth to home renovations and new construction projects. The association has forecast total sales for 2021 of 64.2Mt, corresponding to an increase of 6% compared to 2020 levels. It expects the same segments to drive growth in 2022, though at a lower rate.

India: JK Cement has targeted a 10% year-on-year sales growth in its 2022 financial year, which ends on 31 March 2022. The Economic Times has reported that the company foresees sales growth due to the on-going government infrastructure investment push, minimal monsoon disruptions and pent-up cement demand following Covid-19-led disruptions. Cement chief operating officer Rajnish Kapur said that growth momentum from the end of the 2021 financial year will likely continue throughout the coming nine months, despite a Covid-19 led sales drop in the first quarter of the 2021 financial year.

The cement producer also expects that its new cement plant project at Panna in Madhya Pradesh is likely to be completed in the 2023 financial year due to Covid-19 related delays. The plant will bring its total cement production capacity to around 20Mt/yr from nearly 15Mt/yr at present once it is finished. The company is also considering acquisitions to further increase its capacity to 25Mt/yr by the mid-2020s.

UK: Fitch Ratings says it does not expect the financial profiles of cement producers to be changed by decarbonisation efforts in its rating horizon. The credit rating agency expects that regulatory scrutiny, investor pressure and societal awareness are likely to accelerate the building materials sector’s decarbonisation drive. However, it predicts that producers will pass on costs to consumers as there are no substitutes for its products. In addition, demand for building materials will grow, supported by increasing needs for infrastructure to cope with the transition to a low-carbon economy and the physical effects of climate change.

It added that, since there are no low carbon solution readily available, such improvements will require ‘significant’ investment and research. Fitch Ratings expect this to arrive after 2030 to meet the tight 2050 sustainability targets by both governments and companies. The cost of this may be large especially as government incentives to support it are, as yet, uncertain.

Fitch Ratings noted that the industry had made significant progress with an 18% reduction in the global average CO₂ intensity of cement production since 1990. However, due to growing demand for cement, the sector’s gross emissions have increased by 50%. It pointed out the large role China and India have to play in emissions reductions as they are the largest concrete producers in the world. However, Europe is seen as the most demanding region for decarbonisation regulations at present.

Mexico: Cemex has forecast full-year earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of US$3.10bn in 2021, up by 26% year-on-year from US$2.46bn in 2020. The forecast figure is 7% higher than its previous prediction of US$2.90bn in its first quarter 2021 earnings call. The company said that it expects the double-digit growth to continue into 2022. It said that in 2023 and estimated US$400m of additional EBITDA will come from bolt-on investments and its on-going 10Mt/yr cement capacity expansion.

India: Ratings agency ICRA has forecast a 25% year-on-year decline in cement sales during the first quarter of the 2022 financial year to 30 June 2021. Domestic cement demand fell by 4% year-on-year and by 35% month-on-month in April 2021, according to the Press Trust of India. The agency said that this was due to the spread of the Covid-19 outbreak to rural areas and the imposition of numerous regional lockdowns. Pent-up demand is expected to drive a gradual recovery in the second quarter from July 2021. Costs for cement companies increased by 5% nationally year-on-year in April 2021. Increased fuel, power and transport costs all contributed to the rise.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) Market Intelligence Group has released its Spring 2021 Regional Forecasts for the Northeast, Central, West, and Southeast regions. Residential construction has been identified as the main driver of consumption growth in most regions.

The Pacific sub-region of the West is forecast to grow by 1.1% year-on-year in 2021, while the Mountain sub-region will drop by 0.7% following strong growth in 2020.

The West South Central sub-region is expected to rise by 2.3% and the West North Central by 1.2%. In the former this will be supported by residential demand and a recovery in the oil well cement market. The PCA added that he sub-region maintains very strong construction fundamentals given demand from strong in-migration and an expanding tax base.

The PCA noted that the Northeast had been hit ‘hard’ by the coronavirus pandemic but that cement consumption still grew by 0.6% in 2020. In 2021 the association has forecast growth of 0.1%. Although residential construction is expected to drive demand the association said that the region is expected to lag behind national trends in public cement consumption given, “state fiscal conditions and the characteristics of the region.”

Finally, the PCA forecasts that cement consumption in the South Atlantic sub-region will be ‘strong’ with growth of 6.8% in 2021 and 2.1% in 2022. Demand in the East South Central sub-region is also expected to be positive with consumption growth of 7.6% in 2021 and 1.9% in 2022.