Displaying items by tag: Forecast

India: Ratings agency Crisil has forecast all-Indian cement consumption growth of 11% year-on-year to 440Mt during the current financial year, which ends on 31 March 2024. Crisil attributed this to a 51% year-on-year rise in infrastructure spending, to US$6.75bn throughout the year. Press Trust of India News has reported that infrastructure projects currently account for 30% of all cement consumption.

Peru: The Central Reserve Bank of Peru expects national cement consumption to fall by 3.7% in 2023. The Gestión newspaper has reported that demand declined month-on-month over seven successive months up to August 2023. It fell by a double-digit figure year-on-year in the first half of 2023. In August 2023, imports of cement declined by 95% month-on-month, to 2000t from 38,000t.

Peruvian Chamber of Construction executive director Guido Valdivia said "The first factor to consider is El Niño. If it starts in November 2023, it will affect construction output in 2023; if it is postponed to 2024, we expect a drop of only 3.3% in 2023.″ The Peruvian Property Developers’ Association (ASEI) forecast a 4% drop in construction output in 2023, followed by growth of 3.2% in 2024.

Grupo Gloria’s vice president, cement, concrete and lime, Luis Díaz told investors that the gap between Peruvian cement production and consumption will close ‘substantially’ during the remaining months of 2023, due to raised demand from infrastructure projects.

India: Ratings agency ICRA says that the cement industry in India will reach a renewable energy reliance of 40% across its operations in the 2025 financial year. The Hitavada newspaper has reported that this will involve the construction of 537MW-worth of new renewable power capacity. During the 2023 financial year, which ended on 31 March 2023, producers used 35% renewable energy. ICRA said that they can expect to make costs savings of US$240m/yr from 2025 through the scale-up of renewables, including solar, wind and waste heat recovery. This would correspond to a 15 – 18% reduction of estimated energy costs for the 2025 financial year.

Over the same two-year period, ICRA forecast blended cements to rise to 81% of cement sales in the 2025 financial year, from 78% in the 2023 financial year.

The big US news this week has been that Summit Materials and Argos USA are planning to merge their operations. The new organisation will operate six integrated cement plants with a production capacity of 8.4Mt/yr, based on Global Cement Directory 2023 data. The companies say that this will make them the fourth biggest cement producer in the country, at 11.8Mt/yr, based on grinding capacity, and the largest domestically-owned operator. Additionally, the combined entity will also hold just under 5Bnt of aggregate reserves, 224 ready-mixed concrete (RMX) plants and 32 asphalt plants.

The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2024 subject to the usual regulatory clearances and shareholder approval. At this point Argos should own approximately 31% of the new company and Summit Materials’ shareholders will be the majority owner. Although, if we remember anything from the Lafarge-Holcim merger from nearly a decade ago, it is that if the share prices between the two companies diverge too much in the next six months then that proportion may change. In simple terms that split for Argos USA is in the region of where one might expect it to be given that Argos USA made 39% of the combined revenue for both itself and Summit Materials in 2022 and 28% of the combined earnings.

The two companies complement each other well for the purposes of forming a new heavy building materials concern. Summit Materials reported revenue of US$2.41bn in 2022, with 30% deriving from its aggregates businesses, another 30% coming from RMX and about 20% from paving. Cement generated US$341m, or 14%, of total revenue. By contrast Argos USA reported revenue of US$1.57bn in 2022 from a business just concerning cement and concrete. Geographically, Summit Materials’ integrated plants are in the Midwest, in Iowa and Missouri respectively, and its cement terminals follow the Mississippi River from Minneapolis to New Orleans. Notably, it made the point in the merger announcement that the deal would reduce the seasonality of its cement business. Argos USA’s plants and terminals are mostly spaced out in the Southern states with its plants in Alabama, Florida, South Carolina and West Virginia.

It goes against recent trends for a US-based company to be increasing its share in the domestic cement market, although it has resorted to teaming up with a Colombia-based one to do so. Usually it is foreign-headquarted companies making moves in the US. For example, Ireland-based CRH is in the final stages of switching its primary listing to the New York Stock Exchange. Its head Albert Manifold described the US construction market as going through a “golden age” earlier in the year whilst trying to sell the stock market move at the company’s annual general meeting. Meanwhile, there have been various smaller acquisitions such as Peru-based UNACEMs’ agreement to buy the Tehachapi cement plant in California from Martin Marietta Materials in August 2023.

Given the ongoing importance of the North American market for the international cement producers it is not surprising that merger and acquisition activity has been taking place. Each of the four largest US-based cement producers performed well in the first six months of 2023, increasing both revenue and earnings significantly. However, the picture is mixed. The Portland Cement Association (PCA) forecast at the start of 2023 that cement consumption would decline in the second half of 2023 due to a worsening general economic outlook. The downturn was estimated to be brief though as interest rates were expected to dip and infrastructure spending to rise in 2024. Half-year data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) supported this view as shipments reached an estimated 51.0Mt, a slight decrease from the same period in 2022. The cement companies have made money so far in 2023 partly by raising their prices. Yet, some segments of the residential homebuilding market have also driven demand despite the general economic picture.

One last thing to consider is how much thought was given to the carbon risk of forming a new heavy building materials company in a developed economy in the 2020s. Sustainability receives a mention in Summit Materials’ investor presentation in the form of current achievements such as switching to blended cements or reducing fossil fuel usage but there is no suggestion that any serious investment to curtail process emissions is expected any time soon. However, one could make the case that the enlarged company might benefit from synergistic effects if it were forced to spend more on CO₂ emission reduction. This proposed merger concerns two existing organisations teaming up rather than new equity entering the arena. In this context it will be worth noting whether the next cement industry merger or acquisition in the US or Europe will involve existing companies or new entrants.

Japan: Taiheiyo Cement's sales were US$1.35bn in the first quarter of the 2024 financial year, up by 9.6% year-on-year. Meanwhile, its profit before tax rose by 36% to US$20.8m.

Nikkei Financial Summary News has reported that Taiheiyo Cement has maintained its forecast of sales of US$6.43bn and profit before tax of US$392m for the full 2024 financial year, which ends on 31 March 2024.

Japan: Sumitomo Osaka Cement says that it expects sales to rise by 14% year-on-year to US$761m during the first half of the 2024 financial year. Nikkei Financial Summary News has reported that the producer expects a drop in its cement volumes, offset by price hikes. Currency effects will also impact its result. Meanwhile, coal prices remained lower than expected. The company expects to record a net profit of US$26.6m, compared to a loss of US$20.4m in the first half of the 2023 financial year. It previously forecast a US$13.3m loss.

Sumitomo Osaka Cement recorded US$52.8m in sales in the first quarter of the 2024 financial year (1 April - 30 June 2023). This corresponds to year-on-year growth of 16%. Nonetheless, it made a net loss of US$7.6m.

Throughout the first quarter of the 2024 financial year, Japanese cement despatches fell by 15% to 10.1Mt. Exports declined most sharply, by 43%, to 1.51Mt.

Vietnam: State-owned Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation (Vicem) has projected that national full-year cement production will rise by 1.7% to 118Mt. Meanwhile, the cement market leader believes that demand will rise by 5.4% to 68.3Mt in 2023. This corresponds to an oversupply of 73%, compared to 78% in 2022.

Việt Nam News has reported that the government recorded a 7% year-on-year decline in Vietnamese cement production to 43Mt and a 10% drop in demand to 39Mt in the first half of 2023.

Adani Group and JK Lakshmi Cement were reported to be leading the race to acquire Sanghi Cement this week. The Economic Times newspaper reported sources who said that both companies are about to start due diligence processes ahead of making formal offers in the next few months. The enterprise value of Gujarat-based Sanghi Cement is around US$730m. Shree Cement, Nirma Group and Dalmia Bharat were said to have been interested previously, but no longer at this stage. However, none of the companies involved have commented directly on any bidding process so far.

Coverage in the India-based press earlier in July 2023 suggested that Shree Cement had dropped out of the bidding process for a 40 - 70% stake in Sanghi Cement. Although the exact reasons for Shree Cement withdrawal were not expressed, it was noted that the enterprise value for Sanghi Cement included debts of around US$220m. In late 2022 the Kotak Mahindra Bank made an investment of around US$67m in Sanghi Cement to ‘help the company's liquidity profile and enhance its operations.’ The head of the bank’s Special Situations Fund added that the cement producer’s performance had been under pressure due to high energy costs and that this had been further exacerbated by impending debt repayments stemming from expansion capital expenditure.

Sanghi Cement had the misfortune of commissioning a new line at its integrated plant during the Covid-19 pandemic. The subsidiary of Sanghi Industries operates a 6.6Mt/yr unit at Kutch in Gujarat, with a 130MW captive power plant and a 13MW waste heat recovery (WHR) unit, making it one of the largest plants in the country. It also owns three cement terminals in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Goa. Its annual power and fuel costs rose by 79% year-on-year to US$49.9m in the year to March 2022. Then its finance costs tripled to US$29m in the year to March 2023. Some of the increased fuel costs may have been down to the new production line but its total income in the year to March 2023 was lower than in the year to March 2019.

Adani Group and JK Lakshmi Cement both operate plants in Gujarat. Adani Group runs one integrated and one grinding plant in the state via its Ambuja Cement subsidiary. JK Lakshmi Cement owns a grinding plant. A number of other companies additionally manufacture cement in the state. The biggest of these is the country’s largest cement producer, UltraTech Cement, with three integrated plants and two grinding ones in Gujarat. It would be a surprise if this company tried to buy a share of Sanghi Cement. One prominent India-based cement company that does not have a manufacturing presence in the state is Shree Cement. This made it a compelling candidate for the acquisition before it ruled itself out.

On the national stage, ratings agency ICRA’s June 2023 cement sector report forecast a ‘stable’ outlook for the sector, with cement volumes expected to grow by 7 - 8% in the 2024 financial year. This should be supported by the residential market and infrastructure projects. Crucially, it also noted that power and fuel costs, which peaked in the July - December 2022, eased in early 2023 and are anticipated to further soften in the 2024 financial year. The agency’s view was that this would help company earnings margins, but not to the levels seen in the five years prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This may be cold comfort for Sanghi Cement, but it may have implications for any bidding process.

Lastly, ICRA also warned of the weakening effects that El Niño could have on the monsoon season and, in turn, rural house building during this period. The weather has been a ‘hot’ topic globally this year, as various records have been broken. Yet on a day-to-day basis the weather can also affect the business of making and selling cement. ICRA’s concern was for the latter. An example of the former occurred in June 2023 when Cyclone Biporjoy caused disruption at Sanghi Cement’s Sanghipuram plant. The unit was shut down in mid-June 2023 to protect the staff. Some damage was reported and the plant reopened at the end of the month. Again, as with fuel prices, the weather may also play a part in the calculations of any company considering buying a stake in Sanghi Cement.

Malaysia: Malayan Cement expects its sales of cement to remain level at 8Mt/yr throughout the 2023 and 2024 financial years. The New Straits Times newspaper has reported that the producer forecast consistent declines in its cement prices over the period. Meanwhile, it expects the price of Indonesian coal, which it imports for use as fuel, to drop to US$285/t in the 2023 financial year, then by 42% to US$165/t in the 2024 financial year and by 12% to US$145/t in the 2025 financial year.

India: ICRA says that all-Indian cement production capacity will rise by 6% year-on-year to 610Mt/yr during the 2024 financial year. The ratings agency forecasts that the Indian cement industry will invest US$14.6bn over the four years up to the end of the 2027 financial year to expand its capacity by 26% to 725Mt/yr. The Financial Express newspaper has reported that costs of cement production fell in the second half of the 2023 financial year, which ended on 31 March 2023. The trend is expected to continue throughout the 2024 financial year. Meanwhile, ICRA has forecast domestic demand growth of 7 - 8% year-on-year in the 2024 financial year.