Displaying items by tag: Forecast

Japan: Taiheiyo Cement's sales were US$1.35bn in the first quarter of the 2024 financial year, up by 9.6% year-on-year. Meanwhile, its profit before tax rose by 36% to US$20.8m.

Nikkei Financial Summary News has reported that Taiheiyo Cement has maintained its forecast of sales of US$6.43bn and profit before tax of US$392m for the full 2024 financial year, which ends on 31 March 2024.

Japan: Sumitomo Osaka Cement says that it expects sales to rise by 14% year-on-year to US$761m during the first half of the 2024 financial year. Nikkei Financial Summary News has reported that the producer expects a drop in its cement volumes, offset by price hikes. Currency effects will also impact its result. Meanwhile, coal prices remained lower than expected. The company expects to record a net profit of US$26.6m, compared to a loss of US$20.4m in the first half of the 2023 financial year. It previously forecast a US$13.3m loss.

Sumitomo Osaka Cement recorded US$52.8m in sales in the first quarter of the 2024 financial year (1 April - 30 June 2023). This corresponds to year-on-year growth of 16%. Nonetheless, it made a net loss of US$7.6m.

Throughout the first quarter of the 2024 financial year, Japanese cement despatches fell by 15% to 10.1Mt. Exports declined most sharply, by 43%, to 1.51Mt.

Vietnam: State-owned Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation (Vicem) has projected that national full-year cement production will rise by 1.7% to 118Mt. Meanwhile, the cement market leader believes that demand will rise by 5.4% to 68.3Mt in 2023. This corresponds to an oversupply of 73%, compared to 78% in 2022.

Việt Nam News has reported that the government recorded a 7% year-on-year decline in Vietnamese cement production to 43Mt and a 10% drop in demand to 39Mt in the first half of 2023.

Adani Group and JK Lakshmi Cement were reported to be leading the race to acquire Sanghi Cement this week. The Economic Times newspaper reported sources who said that both companies are about to start due diligence processes ahead of making formal offers in the next few months. The enterprise value of Gujarat-based Sanghi Cement is around US$730m. Shree Cement, Nirma Group and Dalmia Bharat were said to have been interested previously, but no longer at this stage. However, none of the companies involved have commented directly on any bidding process so far.

Coverage in the India-based press earlier in July 2023 suggested that Shree Cement had dropped out of the bidding process for a 40 - 70% stake in Sanghi Cement. Although the exact reasons for Shree Cement withdrawal were not expressed, it was noted that the enterprise value for Sanghi Cement included debts of around US$220m. In late 2022 the Kotak Mahindra Bank made an investment of around US$67m in Sanghi Cement to ‘help the company's liquidity profile and enhance its operations.’ The head of the bank’s Special Situations Fund added that the cement producer’s performance had been under pressure due to high energy costs and that this had been further exacerbated by impending debt repayments stemming from expansion capital expenditure.

Sanghi Cement had the misfortune of commissioning a new line at its integrated plant during the Covid-19 pandemic. The subsidiary of Sanghi Industries operates a 6.6Mt/yr unit at Kutch in Gujarat, with a 130MW captive power plant and a 13MW waste heat recovery (WHR) unit, making it one of the largest plants in the country. It also owns three cement terminals in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Goa. Its annual power and fuel costs rose by 79% year-on-year to US$49.9m in the year to March 2022. Then its finance costs tripled to US$29m in the year to March 2023. Some of the increased fuel costs may have been down to the new production line but its total income in the year to March 2023 was lower than in the year to March 2019.

Adani Group and JK Lakshmi Cement both operate plants in Gujarat. Adani Group runs one integrated and one grinding plant in the state via its Ambuja Cement subsidiary. JK Lakshmi Cement owns a grinding plant. A number of other companies additionally manufacture cement in the state. The biggest of these is the country’s largest cement producer, UltraTech Cement, with three integrated plants and two grinding ones in Gujarat. It would be a surprise if this company tried to buy a share of Sanghi Cement. One prominent India-based cement company that does not have a manufacturing presence in the state is Shree Cement. This made it a compelling candidate for the acquisition before it ruled itself out.

On the national stage, ratings agency ICRA’s June 2023 cement sector report forecast a ‘stable’ outlook for the sector, with cement volumes expected to grow by 7 - 8% in the 2024 financial year. This should be supported by the residential market and infrastructure projects. Crucially, it also noted that power and fuel costs, which peaked in the July - December 2022, eased in early 2023 and are anticipated to further soften in the 2024 financial year. The agency’s view was that this would help company earnings margins, but not to the levels seen in the five years prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This may be cold comfort for Sanghi Cement, but it may have implications for any bidding process.

Lastly, ICRA also warned of the weakening effects that El Niño could have on the monsoon season and, in turn, rural house building during this period. The weather has been a ‘hot’ topic globally this year, as various records have been broken. Yet on a day-to-day basis the weather can also affect the business of making and selling cement. ICRA’s concern was for the latter. An example of the former occurred in June 2023 when Cyclone Biporjoy caused disruption at Sanghi Cement’s Sanghipuram plant. The unit was shut down in mid-June 2023 to protect the staff. Some damage was reported and the plant reopened at the end of the month. Again, as with fuel prices, the weather may also play a part in the calculations of any company considering buying a stake in Sanghi Cement.

Malaysia: Malayan Cement expects its sales of cement to remain level at 8Mt/yr throughout the 2023 and 2024 financial years. The New Straits Times newspaper has reported that the producer forecast consistent declines in its cement prices over the period. Meanwhile, it expects the price of Indonesian coal, which it imports for use as fuel, to drop to US$285/t in the 2023 financial year, then by 42% to US$165/t in the 2024 financial year and by 12% to US$145/t in the 2025 financial year.

India: ICRA says that all-Indian cement production capacity will rise by 6% year-on-year to 610Mt/yr during the 2024 financial year. The ratings agency forecasts that the Indian cement industry will invest US$14.6bn over the four years up to the end of the 2027 financial year to expand its capacity by 26% to 725Mt/yr. The Financial Express newspaper has reported that costs of cement production fell in the second half of the 2023 financial year, which ended on 31 March 2023. The trend is expected to continue throughout the 2024 financial year. Meanwhile, ICRA has forecast domestic demand growth of 7 - 8% year-on-year in the 2024 financial year.

India: Birla Corporation says that it expects to sell 18.1Mt of cement during the 2024 financial year (1 April 2023 - 31 March 2024), up by 15% year-on-year from 15.7Mt in the 2023 financial year. That financial year, sales grew by 11% year-on-year. Looking ahead, the producer expects its new 3.9Mt/yr Mukutban cement plant in Maharashtra increase its sales. It said that it may also carry out future expansions at its Chanderia cement plant in Rajasthan.

The Hindu BusinessLine newspaper has reported that managing director and CEO Sandip Ghose said "Our strategy is based on prices not going up significantly. Volumes are going to move in a healthy manner unless there are any major dislocations, disruptions or hiccups going forward. I am very bullish on the India growth story." Regarding the company's Gujarat market in Western India, he said "Gujarat had gone through exponential growth in the past year, which boosted certain companies' profitability because of the bullet train, the expressway and other developments." Ghose forecast similar demand growth in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

World: Market Research Future has forecast a composite annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% between 2022 and 2030. This would result in a market value of US$505bn in 2030, compared with US$335bn in 2022. The report added that the rate of new construction projects is increasing across all regions.

Peru: Unacem recorded consolidated sales of US$380m during the first quarter of 2023, corresponding to year-on-year growth of 2.6%. Despite this, the producer's earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell by 7.4% to US$105m. Unacem attributed its sales growth to 'strong' cement sales volumes in the US, as well as increased prices across its markets. The domestic Peruvian market contributed US$247m (65%) of Unacem's sales, up by 0.5% year-on-year. Peruvian cement volumes fell by 8%, while high fuel costs there contributed to a local decline in earnings.

Looking ahead to the full 2023 financial year, Unacem CEO Pedro Lerner expects the group's consolidated sales to rise year-on-year. He forecast a 10% drop in Peruvian cement volumes to 6Mt. Lerner said that the company is 'monitoring events' in neighbouring Ecuador, but considers it inevitable that on-going political disturbances will 'affect economic conditions' in the market.

Vietnam: The Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA) expects members to record a 13% drop in their gross profit in 2023 due to a 3% rise in electricity prices. At the same time, it expects cement demand to fall due to the slowing of residential construction activity. During the first quarter of 2023, Vietnamese cement exports to China fell by 90% in value terms.

Việt Nam News has reported that electricity costs constitute 15% of operating expenses for the Vietnamese cement sector.