Displaying items by tag: Forecast

Vietnam: Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) has forecast a 16% year-on-year rise in Vietnam’s cement and clinker exports to 44.5Mt from 38.4Mt. 22.3Mt (50%) of the 2021 exports will be to China. Viet Nam News has reported that VCBS forecast a drop in Vietnam’s cement and clinker exports to China in 2022 due to a Chinese property market slowdown. From 2023, the Vietnam government plans to raise its clinker export tariff to 10% from 5%.

India: Ratings agency Crisil has forecast 11 – 13% year-on-year growth of cement sales volumes in the 2021 financial year. The Press Trust of India has reported that the agency predicted that high demand and increased fuel costs would precipitate a rise in cement prices to record levels before April 2022.

In December 2021, petcoke prices rose by 80% year-on-year, while the price of imported coal had more than doubled. This has increased cement producers’ costs by 40%.

Japan: Sumitomo Osaka Cement recorded consolidated first-half sales of US$790m in its 2022 financial year, down by 20% from US$993m in the first half of the 2021 financial year. Its cement sales were US$544m, down by 31% from US$784m. It exported 778Mt of cement, up by 33% from 594Mt in the first half of the 2021 financial year. Its domestic sales volume was 4.1Mt, up by 1.2% from 4.05Mt.

The group forecast full-year consolidated sales of US$1.65bn, down by 22% year-on-year from US$2.12bn.

Ireland: CRH’s consolidated sales rose by 11% year-on-year to US$22.8bn in the first nine months of 2021, according to the group’s nine-month trading update. The company recorded earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of US$3.9bn, up by 15% year-on-year. CRH forecast a full-year EBITDA of US$5.25bn.

CRH said that it invested US$1.4bn in new acquisitions in the first nine months of 2021. It added that there remains a strong pipeline of opportunities open to it. At the end of the third quarter of 2021, the company had completed US$800m-worth of its share buyback programme.

Chief executive officer Albert Manifold said “CRH continues to perform well, with good underlying demand and pricing progress across our key markets. Our uniquely integrated and solutions-focused business model has supported further margin expansion across our businesses, while our strong cash generation and disciplined approach to capital allocation provides further opportunities to create value for all of our stakeholders.” He added “Looking ahead to the remainder of the year, we expect to deliver another record performance for the group.”

Italy: Buzzi Unicem’s consolidated sales rose by 5.6% year-on-year to US$2.54bn in the first nine months of 2021 from US$2.41bn in the first nine months of 2020. It recorded consolidated cement sales of 23.4Mt, up by 7.5% from 21.7Mt in the corresponding period of 2020. Sales growth in Eastern Europe - especially the Czech Republic and Poland - and the US offset a partial slowdown in Italy, particularly in the third quarter of the year.

The group expects global construction activity to generally remain level into the fourth quarter of 2021. It forecast “favourable” volume and price effects in its full-year results for 2021. It nonetheless noted “growing concern” at rising energy, fuels, logistics, raw materials and services costs in various regions. It forecast group recurring earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) not in excess of 2020 levels.

Ukraine: The Ukrainian cement association Ukrcement has forecast a 17% year-on-year rise in domestic cement consumption in 2021 from 9Mt in 2020. Business World Magazine has reported that demand previously exceeded 10Mt in 2014.

Association head Pavlo Kachur said that the Ukrainian cement industry operated at 66% capacity utilisation in the first nine months of 2021. He added “Therefore, we have room to grow.”

Mexico: Cemex’s consolidated sales in the first nine months of 2021 were US$11bn, up by 5% year-on-year from US$9.4bn in the corresponding period of 2020. Its cement sales rose by 10% to 51.1Mt from 46.2Mt, while its ready-mix concrete volumes increased by 7% to 36.8Mm3 from 34Mm3. Its operating earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) totalled US$2.24bn, up by 24% from US$1.81bn. Its gross profit was US$3.63bn, up by 18% from US$3.07bn. During the period, the group reduced its debt by 33% to US$8.98bn from US$13.3bn.

Cement volumes grew in all regions in every quarter of the year except the third, when they fell by 3% in Mexico and remained level year-on-year in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. The quarter brought an end to five consecutive quarters of double-digit year-on-year growth in bagged cement sales in Mexico. Mexican bulk cement sales meanwhile ‘accelerated in line with the formal sector recovery.’ The sharpest nine-month cement volumes growth was in South, Central America and the Caribbean, where sales rose by 19% year-on-year, followed by Mexico, with a rise of 12%.

CEO Fernando González said “We are pleased to report strong top-line growth, reflecting continued growth in demand for our products, coupled with an acceleration in pricing momentum. We are confident that our pricing strategy will more than compensate for the sudden runup in input cost inflation we have experienced.” He added “We remain optimistic regarding outlook, as most of our markets are operating at high capacity utilisation and sustainable midcycle levels that will be supported by monetary and fiscal stimulus, while others are just beginning an upcycle. Regarding our Future in Action initiative, we continue to advance on our climate action goals. During the quarter, we received validation from SBTi of our 2030 decarbonisation roadmap and joined the Race to Zero initiative. Our climate action agenda is a fundamental element of our medium-term strategy not only because it creates value for stakeholders, but because it is the right thing to do for future generations.”

Finland: Wärtsilä’s sales fell by 6% year-on-year to Euro3.18bn in the first nine months of 2021 from Euro3.39bn in the corresponding period of 2020. It increased its order intake by 11% to Euro3.58bn from Euro3.24bn. The company’s cash flow from operating activities fell by 12% to Euro360m from Euro407m. It expects that demand for its offering will increase ‘considerably’ year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2021.

The supplier announced that it will aim to achieve carbon neutral operations and to provide a product portfolio which will be ready for zero carbon fuels by 2030. It published a report entitled Front Loading Net Zero on how production economies can make savings while managing the renewable energy transition. The report concludes that full decarbonisation before 2050 will be financially viable if properly supported by governments and energy companies.

President and CEO Håkan Agnevall said “These new targets demonstrate our commitment to a sustainable future. Our aim is to support our customers on their decarbonisation. Our products, solutions, and services will meet the stringent environmental requirements, and the fuel flexibility and fuel efficiency of the engines powering these sectors are key to enabling the transformation.” Agnevall added “Naturally, we also need to do our part as an organisation and minimise our own environmental footprint.”

Japan: Ube Industries has revised its profit forecast downwards for the 2022 financial year. It now expects a net profit of US$171m in the year to March 2022, a 15% fall year-on-year, compared to its previous forecast of US$184m. It has also forecast full-year consolidated sales of US$5.57bn, a rise of 3.4% year-on-year. The Nikkei newspaper has reported that the group attributed the lower figure for profit to increased costs of cement production, transport and its on-going integration of its cement businesses.

India: Ratings agency Emkay Global has forecast an 11% year-on-year rise in UltraTech Cement’s second-quarter sales in the 2022 financial year to US$1.5bn from US$1.36bn. It expects the producer’s cement sales to rise by 6% in the period to 20.4Mt, and its net profit to grow by 6.4% to US$174m from US$163m.

The Economic Times newspaper has reported that Emkay Global predicted that UltraTech Cement’s costs will rise by 7% and that its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation per tonne of cement will fall by 5% year-on-year.