Displaying items by tag: Forecast

India: The credit ratings agency ICRA has forecast that cement demand is likely to increase by 5% year-on-year in the 2017 – 2018 financial year due to increases in infrastructure and residential housing. In a report on the Indian cement sector it said that demand for cement fell by 1.2% to 280Mt in the 2016 – 2017 period, according to the Hindu newspaper. It added that the government’s demonetisation policy had decreased sales volumes by 9% between November 2016 and March 2017 as construction activity fell. However, in July 2016 ICRA failed to anticipate the negative effects of demonetisation predicting that cement demand would grow by 6% in the 2016 – 2017. Since then sales picked up by 17% in April 2017 leading to the current optimistic outlook.

India: The Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA) says that demand for cement is likely to grow in the second half of the Indian financial year due to the new Goods and Services Tax (GST) and increased infrastructure spending. The cement industry is also expected to benefit from a 30% reduction in logistic costs due to simplified state border checks, according to the Press Trust of India. The CMA’s forecast follows a fall in growth for the cement industry in the previous financial year.

Peru: The Association of Cement Producers (Asocem) has forecast that cement production will grow by 1 - 1.5% in 2017. This is based on predicted growth in the second half of 2017 following a decline in production of 5.5% over the last 12 months, according to the Gestión newspaper. Despite this production continued to fall in May 2017, by 6.4% year-on-year to 0.78Mt, although the rate has slowed since April. Cement demand is expected to rebound due to the reconstruction work after El Niño-related flooding and government infrastructure projects.

Philippines: The Board of Investments (BOI) is seeking investment in the cement sector as it expects demand to double to 40Mt/yr by 2020 due to a peak in government infrastructure spending. At the same time Department of Trade and Industry (TI) Undersecretary for industry promotions group Ceferino S Rodolfo confirmed that two companies are preparing to build new integrated plants, according to the Manila Bulletin newspaper. Both companies are obtaining permits for their projects but Rodolfo would not confirm their identifies. DMCI Holdings was reported in the local press as being interested in building a plant Antique's Semirara Island in early June 2017.

Saudi Arabia: Cement sales have fallen by 19% year-on-year to 22.6Mt/yr in the first five months of 2017. Clinker production decreased by 11.3%, according to a market report by Al Rajhi Capital. Northern Cement and Najran Cement recorded the highest declines in the period at 50% and 43% respectively. The report does not expect demand to pick up in the remainder of 2017. Overall it forecasts a 14% fall in sales volumes to around 47Mt in the year. Saudi Cement, Yamama Cement, Yanbu Cement and Najran Cement hold 50% of the total inventory in the sector at 4.9Mt, 4Mt, 3Mt and 2.8Mt respectively.

India: Sagar Cements, India Cements and Bharathi Cements have continued to defend public concerns over cement pricing due to economic trends beyond their control. In a press conference the producers blamed rising input costs, distribution costs, taxes and high margins by dealers, according to the Times of India newspaper. They added that the key demand drivers for the industry are residential house building and government projects.

S Srikanth Reddy, Executive Director of Sagar Cements forecast that cement demand will rise by 10 – 18% in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh over the next two to three years due to large government-run infrastructure projects. Tamil Nadu and Kerala are expected to rise by no more than 5% and Karnataka is expected to rise by 2 – 5%.

However, despite increases in the short term, the cement producers forecast problems for the industry in the south of the country, and in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana in particular, due to production overcapacity as producers increased their installed capacity in anticipation of high demand. At present they say that producers are forced to run plants at 60% production utilisation rates with high volatility in price rates in a highly fragmented market with over 50 brands.

France: The Syndicat Français de l'industrie Cimentière (SFIC) forecasts that cement consumption will grow faster in the second half of 2017 due to an increase in domestic house building. Association president Raoul de Parisot, said that he expected growth of 3 – 4% in the second half of the year, according to La Croix newspaper. Cement sales grew by 1 – 2% in the first quarter of 2017. The association expects cement consumption to reach 17.9 – 18.1Mt in 2017.

Ed Sullivan, the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) chief economist was in tub-thumbing mood last week at the IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Conference in Calgary, Canada. The headline figures that the PCA put out in a press release was a forecast of a 3.5% rise in cement consumption in 2018 and 2019. Yet behind this in a stirring speech given to a cement industry crowd craving growth was a tale of riches ahead. The audience lapped it up. There was only one problem: nothing has really happened yet to make any if this happen. It always seems to be riches ahead. As Sullivan freely put it, “Trump policies will impact cement… But we don’t know what they are!”

Sullivan broke down his forecast into three sections that hinged around President Trump’s desired policy changes kicking in from about the third quarter of 2019. At this point, owing to lack of information about what the Trump administration actually wants to do, Sullivan freely broke open the assumptions. These covered issues such as a tax reform, infrastructure budgeting, immigration reforms and more. As he explained it all of these issues interact, so that reducing taxes potentially pushes national debt up making infrastructure spending harder. Owing to the lack of specifics from the current administration though Sullivan was forced to resort to the more solid plans of Democratic presidential contenders Hillary Clinton and even Bernie Saunders for nuggets of information of how ‘a government’ might act. For example, he used a breakdown of Saunders’s intended infrastructure spend to try and predict how Trump’s policies could play out. Increases in highway building from the overall infrastructure spend in this context being good news for the cement industry. And as for Sullivan’s view on the impact of the Trump border wall: ‘overrated’.

The new forecasts for 2018 and 2019 appear to be retrenchment given that the PCA was predicting growth of 4% for 2016 in the middle of that year. It subsequently reduced its estimate to 2.7% for 2016 by December 2016 after the presidential election. However its figures for 2017 and 2018 have increased since the December forecast. Sullivan predicted that growth will start to surpass 5% in 2020 once Trump’s policies have time to make waves. The crescendo of his presentation at the IEEE-IAS/PCA was a prognostication of an extra requirement of 14Mt of cement in 2021 and 2022. Sullivan topped this off by saying that, “We have the supply infrastructure in place right now.” However, some delegates informally questioned afterwards where that cement might actually come from with mass international clinker capacity waiting in the wings from places like Vietnam and new cement plants such as the McInnis Cement plant in Quebec expressively targeted at the US import market about to come on line.

Sullivan has a tricky job trying to predict what will happen next in the US cement industry and sometimes his forecasts seems to change as much as the weather that cement company financial reports often blame their poor returns on. This column knows a little bit how he feels. As Sullivan’s biography points out he’s been cited by the Chicago Federal Reserve as the most accurate forecaster regarding economic growth among 30 top economists. In short he’s the best we’ve got. But Donald Trump’s approach to government so far has made his job exponentially harder. As we’ve said more than a few times when describing the US cement market, the basis are there for growth but something is holding back faster growth. Will Trump be the catalyst to break the 5% growth barrier? Looks like we’ll have to wait until late 2019 to find out.

Elsewhere, the conference brought together a large cross-section of the North American industry. Surprisingly perhaps given the change in leadership at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) several parts of the speaker and discussion programme focused on coping with National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP), carbon tax schemes in Canada and California and practical carbon capture methods at the plant level. The key here seemed to be a piecemeal approach that may not necessarily be at odds with less government environmental legislation. Next year’s outing in Nashville, Tennessee looks set to be an even more important event, especially if more on Trump's infrastructure plans become known.

US: The Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) Chief Economist Ed Sullivan has said that he expects US cement consumption to grow by 3.5% in the remainder if 2017 and 2018, based on analysis of data and policies likely to impact the industry in the coming years. Speaking before the IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Conference in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, Sullivan said that, while details on specific federal US policies are not yet fully available, the association is forecasting growth in the years ahead using conservative baseline estimates for factors such as infrastructure spending and tax reform.

“While fiscal stimulus will boost cement consumption, there are other economic indicators that will temper growth,” said Sullivan. “Infrastructure policies also take time to implement, so you could be looking at 11 - 22 months before new projects truly get underway.”

“Tax reform will also influence cement consumption because it drives consumer spending and confidence that play heavily with the housing sector,” noted Sullivan. “When you hire a worker, you hire a taxpayer,” Sullivan said, adding that additional funds generated from consumer taxes and spending will help drive moderate growth in public construction and housing markets. “The underlying fundamentals supporting economic growth are positive, though we’ll maintain a watch on how the US Government addresses possible inflation and immigration,” Sullivan said. “This confidence in stable, sustained growth in cement consumption is likely to be unchallenged through 2018.”

Poland: The Polish Cement Association (Stowarzyszenie Producentów Cementu) forecasts that local cement sales will rise by 2.5% to 16.1Mt in 2017 and to 17Mt in 2018 due to growing investment in residential housing and infrastructure. The association also warned that the future of the European Union's Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) could have major implications for the local industry. It supported the European Parliament’s amendments to the scheme in March 2017 and reinforced the high level of thermal substitution rates used in the local industry.