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Is Brazil’s cement industry ready to bounce back?
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
16 May 2018
Votorantim shone a glimmer of hope for the Brazilian cement industry with the release of its first quarter financial results this week. Increased sales volumes in Brazil, Turkey, India and Latin America led to an 11% rise in revenue to US$682m in the period. Admittedly back home in Brazil, most of this came from concrete and mortar sales, but after the slump Brazil’s had they’ll take whatever they can get. This compares to a 14% drop in sales revenue in the same period in 2017 due to falling cement consumption.
Graph 1: Accumulated 12 months local cement sales in Brazil. Source: SNIC.
SNIC, Brazil's national cement industry association, preliminary figures for April 2018 show a similar trend. Cement sales for April 2018 rose by 8.9% year-on-year to 4.35Mt from 4Mt. Sales for the first four months of the year dipped slightly by 0.2% to 16.9Mt although this is an improvement on the first quarter figures showing the benefit a strong April has had. Improvements are driven by growth in the central and southern parts of the country. SNIC’s graph of accumulated sales (Graph 1) definitely shows a slowing trend of decreasing cement sales with April 2018 being the only the second month in over two years where sales have risen.
Paulo Camillo Penna, the president of SNIC, even went as far as to speculate that the three months from April to June 2018 might see the first sustained period of improvement since 2015 and that sales could even grow by 1% for the year as a whole. This is a far cry from Penna’s description of his industry at the start of 2017 as, “One of the worst moments in its history.”
Votorantim reported that some regions of Brazil were starting to show a positive trend in the second half of 2017. Unfortunately it wasn’t enough to stop the cement producer’s overall sales falling for the year. LafargeHolcim didn’t release specific figures for its Brazilian operations in 2017 but it did say that its cost savings programme had, ‘provided for material improvement versus prior year both in recurring earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) and cash flow.’ It reckoned that despite the market contracting, it had managed to increase its market share. Meanwhile, on the supplier side RHI Magnesita said in a first quarter trading update that its cement and lime business was flat due to continuing low capacity utilisation rates in China and Brazil.
If this truly is the end of the Brazilian cement market slump then it seems surprising that there haven’t been more mergers or acquisitions. Mineração Belocal, a subsidiary of Belgium’s Lhoist, said this week that it had purchased L-Imerys, a lime producer that operates a plant at Doresópolis in Minas Gerais. Local refractory producer Magnesita merged with RHI in mid-2017.
The big deal that hasn’t happened is the sale of InterCement, the country’s second largest cement producer. Owner Camargo Corrêa was reportedly selling minority stakes in the company in 2015. Then in early 2017 local press said that it was aiming for a price of US$6.5bn for the whole company with Mexico’s Cemex as a potential bidder. Since then nothing has happened publicly although the initial public offering of InterCement’s Argentine subsidiary Loma Negra in November 2017 for US$954m may have bought Camargo Corrêa the time it needed to wait for the market to improve. Rumours of a public listing of InterCement’s European and African operations have followed.
In its World Economic Outlook in April 2018 the IMF forecast a 2.8% rise in gross domestic product (GDP) in Brazil in 2018. If SNIC’s forecast for 2018 is correct then Camargo Corrêa may have survived the worst of the slump to live to trade another day. The price for InterCement at this point can only rise, as should the prospects of the Brazilian industry.
LafargeHolcim’s reorganisation plan moves forward
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
09 May 2018
Along with most of the other multinational cement producers the weather and a shorter reporting period has given LafargeHolcim an easy target to blame its first quarter troubles on. Cement and overall sales both grew by over 3% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis but its earnings have fallen.
The problem appears to have arisen from falling earnings in Europe and its Middle East African regions. The decline in Europe was pinned on the weather, less working days and a disproportionate impact of maintenance shutdowns despite positive market trends in most countries. However, in Middle East Africa the finger was pointed squarely at ‘challenging’ conditions in key markets. If the trends from late 2017 continued then the hotspots causing LafargeHolcim trouble were likely to be Algeria, Egypt and Nigeria. That reliance on key markets is contrasted in Asia Pacific where markets in Indian and China have provided sufficient sales and profit growth to overcome problems in South East Asia. HeidelbergCement, its nearest multinational competitor with first quarter results out today, seemed to cope better with increased sales volumes of cement driven particularly by Indonesia and India.
Graphs 1: First quarter cement sales volumes and sales revenue for LafarageHolcim, 2015 – 2018. Source: Company reports.
The graph above doesn’t seem to show the benefits the merger between Lafarge and Holcim promised back in 2015. Remember though that LafargeHolcim has been steadily reducing in size. Like-for-like sales generally show a much better situation.
In the latest results chief executive Jan Jenisch was keen to move on and focus on the group’s reorganisation plan, Strategy 2022. It has targeted net sales growth of 3 – 5% and recurring earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of at least 5%. Both look achievable based on previous quarterly and annual reports although the switch to recurring EBITDA from operating EBITDA makes it harder compare the first quarter of 2018 with the one in 2017.
The other notable change in recent months has been the decision by Thomas Schmidheiny to leave the board of LafargeHolcim. He has been named as the group’s honorary chairman and he will remain as a major shareholder of the group. During the negotiations to merge Lafarge and Holcim in 2015, Schmidheiny held out to get a better deal leading to Lafarge’s Bruno Lafont losing out on the chief executive role. Instead, that position went to Lafarge’s Eric Olsen who was succeeded by Jenisch in October 2017. Lafont and Olsen have since been enveloped by the French legal investigation into Lafarge Syria’s conduct during the Syrian Civil War.
How much of a difference Schmidheiny’s departure from the board of LafargeHolcim will make remains to be seen. However, the sense that Jan Jenisch is making changes to the group is palpable with changes made to its corporate structure in December 2017 followed by the introduction of the wider Strategy 2022 initiative. With the bad weather hopefully ended for the year all eyes will be on the half-year results.
Cement highlights from the Global Slag Conference 2018
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
02 May 2018
There is lots to mull over for the cement industry from last week’s Global Slag Conference that took place in Prague.
One striking map from Michael Connolly, TMS International, showed the status of slag and steel products in the US. It was a multi-coloured patchwork of different regulatory statuses from approval to be used as a product to regulatory exclusion. This won’t come as a surprise to many readers but even within one country the way slag can be used legally varies.
As this column reported last year after the Euroslag Conference, the European Union can be presented in a similar way. The irony here is that increased use of slag and other secondary cementitious materials (SCM) is exactly the kind of change the cement and concrete industries need to make to decrease their carbon emissions. Constant quibbles over whether slag is a product or a waste undermine this. Happily then that Connolly was able to report progress in the US as lobbying by industry and the US National Slag Association have led to more states legally accepting slag as a product.
However, cement producers have other concerns in addition to environmental ones when it comes to slag usage as Doug Haynes from Smithers Apex explained. Haynes, a former UK steel industry worker turned consultant, spoke around a market report on the future of ferrous slag. His take on Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF) slag was that despite fuel savings, decreased CO2 emissions and the benefits of embodied iron when it is used as a raw material for clinker production, it is in the interests of cement producers for slag to be a waste because they then get it for free or at a reduced rate. It’s a similar story to the use of waste-derived fuels powering cement plant kilns where producers want lower fuel costs but waste collectors want value for their product. Unsurprisingly, Haynes wanted cement producers to accept the value embodied in BOF slag.
Charles Zeynel of ZAG International, an SCM trader, then laid out the situation where global SCM supplies are remaining static but cement demand is growing. Coal-fired power station closures are reducing supplies of fly ash, another SCM, placing pressure on existing granulated blast furnace slag (GBS) slag supplies. The message was very much in a slag trader’s favour but instructive nethertheless. If slag is in demand then the price will rise. Anecdotally, the increased number of cement producers at the conference seemed to indicate increased interest of the cement industry in the product.
Lots more speakers followed on topics such as slag beneficiation, grinding advances and new innovations. On grinding, one surprise that popped up was that Spain’s Cemengal has sold a Plug & Grind Vertical mill to CRH Tarmac’s cement plant at Dunbar in Scotland. It is the first such sale of this product in Europe. The last speaker, Jürgen Haunstetter of the German Aerospace Centre, stuck out particularly with his presentation on using slag as a thermal energy storage medium in a concentrated solar power (CSP) plant. This may not seem connected to the cement industry but it is along similar lines to Italcementi’s project at the Aït Baha cement plant in Morocco, which uses a CSP process that can be used with the plant’s waste heat recovery unit.
The Global Slag Conference will return in April 2019 in Aachen, Germany.
Read the full review of the 13th Global Slag Conference 2018
Update on Saudi Arabia
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
25 April 2018
No consolidation has happened yet in the Saudi Arabian cement industry but exports have started to be announced. Yanbu Cement signed an export deal in March 2018 to despatch 1Mt of clinker and 0.5Mt of cement from one year from 1 April 2018. Prior to that, Al Jouf Cement Company started a contract to export 72.000t/yr to Jordan from late February 2018. Earlier still, Bahrain was expected to benefit from a lifting of cement export tariffs at the end of January 2018.
Its early days yet but some of sort of action is starting to happen about the country’s falling cement sales. If export deals are in the early stages of being set following the lifting of the ban, then local movements of cement have intensified. As Al Rajhi Capital reports in its latest market update, that producers have been forced by low sales and high inventory levels to take action. It says that cement companies have started to sell products in different parts of the country than they do normally leading to a ‘price war’. The financial services and analytical company has pinpointed the central region as the key battleground as company market shares have fallen over the last six months as northern producers have moved in.
Graph 1: Cement sales (Mt) by quarter in Saudi Arabia, 2015 to March 2018. Source: Yamama Cement.
Cement sales fell by 15% year-on-year to 11.8Mt in the first quarter of 2018 from 13.7Mt in the same period in 2017. This is the first time in recent years that sales did not rise from the fourth quarter to the following first quarter. Not a good sign. Despite the bad news, a few producers did mange to increases their deliveries in the first quarter, including Saudi Cement, Hail Cement, Umm Al Qura Cement and United Cement.
Bizarrely, into this sales environment, plans for the long delayed Al Baha Cement cement plant project have re-emerged. The project previously has received coverage at various stages over the years. This time it has reportedly gained a licence to set up the company and it hopes to start tendering for the build in the second half of 2018. The investors may want to leave it a little longer given the current state of the Saudi cement industry.
Breedon goes international
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
18 April 2018
The rumours were confirmed yesterday when the UK’s Breedon Group announced its acquisition of Ireland’s Lagan Cement. The price was Euro527m, which Breedon will finance with a combination of a new loan, extended credit and an equity placing. The assets it will gain include a cement plant in Kinnegad, nine active quarries, 13 asphalt plants and nine ready-mixed concrete plants.
Breedon said that its strategy is to continue buying businesses in the heavyside construction materials market. At a stroke, once the deal completes on 20 April 2018, it becomes an international company. From the cement perspective it gains a new 0.7Mt/yr plant in central Ireland and a terminal in Belfast, UK. The UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) wasn’t mentioned in Breedon’s press release on the purchase but it seems unlikely that the competition body would have much to say on the transaction. Lagan Cement does hold ready-mix concrete (RMX) plants, aggregate and asphalt assets in Northern Ireland but these are far away from Breedon’s operations in mainland Britain. That said, the CMA did force Breedon to sell 14 RMX sites when it bought Hope Construction Materials in 2016. Generally speaking, Breedon’s enlargement reduces the diversity of the UK cement industry on the smaller end leaving only Quinn Cement, with operations on both sides of the border, as the country’s sole remaining single site clinker producer.
Aside from geographical expansion, becoming an international building materials company may offer Breedon Group some security from the UK’s exit from the European Union (EU) (so called Brexit). Breedon will join CRH as the only two cement producers with production facilities in both the UK and Ireland. The strategic significance of the position Breedon and CRH are in geographically may arise from whatever deal is reached between the EU and the UK and the significance of the UK’s only land border with the EU. LafargeHolcim is nearly in this club with its plants in England and Northern Ireland and plenty of the other local producers straddle the UK-EU border with terminals or production facilities elsewhere. Yet, in an uncertain Brexit negotiation, having kilns on both sides of the line might come in handy once (or if) the politicians make a decision.
Although, if Liam McCaffrey, the chief executive officer of Quinn Industrial Holding, is to be believed, then Brexit will have little impact at all other than (low) tariffs in a worst case scenario. He said to local press that although damage to the construction industry might arise in the UK from a prolonged recession, the UK’s housing shortage and reliance on imported building materials would probably see it through. That point about a possible financial downturn is important to Breedon Group, given the new debt it will be taking on to pay for acquisition. This is something that will be familiar to Breedon’s competitor Cemex. It is still paying off the debts from its acquisition of Rinker in 2007.
Breedon has decided to delay the release of its interim results from mid-July to September 2018 to allow time for the integration of Lagan into the group. Its sales and earnings may dwarf those from 2017 that it described as ‘one of the most productive years’ in its history. In the meantime congratulations are in order for Breedon Group for ensuring that the UK cement sector is never dull.