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Give a plant a break - EPA Update
Written by Global Cement staff
16 May 2012
Given the legal scuffles over the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) emissions timetable it was nice to see this week how Ash Grove Cement is responding at its Midlothian plant in Texas. The plant is seeking tax breaks on potential upgrade work that it is planning to implement before the current 2013 deadline for the EPA legislation.
For those following the fight between the EPA and the US cement industry here is a recap on the story so far:
The EPA issued a national emission standard for hazardous air pollutants rule to reduce the sector's air toxics in September 2010, alongside a new source performance standard to cut criteria pollutant emissions. In May 2011 the EPA both partly granted and denied petitions from cement industry representatives and environmentalists. In December 2012 the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia remanded the cement air toxic rule back to the EPA, delaying the deadline for the cement industry to seek a rehearing or review. Then in April 2012 the cement industry agreed not to seek a rehearing if the EPA extended its deadline until September 2015. The EPA has now sent for the White House Office of Management & Budget (OMB) to review its proposed revisions to its emissions rules, ahead of a tentative 15 June 2012 deadline.
While the EPA and the cement sector continue to battle it out plants like Ash Grove can do little except keep an eye on the bottom line until the dust settles... in whatever legally mandated fashioned is eventually approved. The Global Cement Directory 2012 lists 22 wet and semi-wet kilns in the US. While some are mothballed, others are likely to be affected by the rules. While the arguments continue the upgrade timetables of these plants hangs in the balance.
Blame it on the weather - European results
Written by Global Cement staff
09 May 2012
Five of the big European producers posted their first quarter results this week and the figures were frosty.
Mirroring the north-south fault-line tearing Europe's economies apart, Germany's HeidelbergCement, Switzerland's Holcim and France's Lafarge showed improvements in overall sales volumes for the first quarter. Italy's Italcementi and Greece's Titan saw total sales volumes fall.
Looking closer, the results revealed that Western Europe was a dead zone for everybody. Despite its restructuring, Lafarge's sales fell by 11% in the region for the quarter. Similarly HeidelbergCement's sales fell by 6%, Holcim's sales fell by 13% and Italcementi's sales fell by 11%. Titan, by contrast, posted a 4% decline in sales in its heartland in Greece and Eastern Europe. Unsurprisingly it attributed the fall to the collapse of the construction sector in the wake of the Greek debt crisis. Even the weather seemed to be against European production, with more than one report blaming an unusually cold February 2012 for the poor results.
As is usual for European cement news in recent years the action in the first quarter of 2012 was all elsewhere, and this is where new profits have been found for these European producers, specifically in Asia and the Americas. It's in these places that Lafarge, Holcim and HeidelbergCement have reported sales increases of 10% and above for the quarter. Unfortunately 'elsewhere' for Italcementi and Titan has included Egypt with all its ongoing political and economic uncertainty, and the US where demand is in a sustained slump.
Bruno Lafont, CEO of Lafarge, summed it up nicely: "Emerging markets continue to be the main driver of demand and Lafarge benefits from its well balanced geographic spread of high quality assets." In a bid to capture some of that spread, it was also announced this week that the Italcementi subsidiary, Ciments Français, is striving to acquire a 6.25% stake in West China Cement. No wonder!
Each of the five producers are continuing to find savings in Western Europe through restructuring efforts but how painful will it become before the market revives? Unfortunately HeidelbergCement's outlook is the most candid. "In the Western and Northern Europe Group area, HeidelbergCement expects further economic growth but a slight overall dip in demand and falling sales volumes in cement and aggregates." Yes, it's going to get worse. Let's hope it's a warm winter in 2013.
Who would buy Hope?
Written by Global Cement staff
02 May 2012
UK: If Tarmac and Lafarge go through with their proposed JV tie-up in the UK, Lafarge will be obliged to sell its long-established Hope plant in Derbyshire, in the heart of the Peak District National Park, as well as its top-quality limestone quarry and rail depot connections. The Competition Commission has indicated that it would like an 'outsider' to buy the package, which also includes significant other assets in aggregates and readymix. The question is, who might be interested to buy it?
The UK is now a mature market, which has contracted significantly over the last decade, so that heady growth is not a possibility. The competition authorities will ensure that there is real competition in the UK building materials markets, so that only 'normal' margins of 5-10% can be expected - rather than inflated cartel-like or oligopolistic margins of 20% and beyond. Given that the return on capital invested is going to be quite low, why would anyone want to commit their cash (or their credit) to buying into the UK construction materials market? Why not put your money into bio-tech, or telecomms or even into a micro-development bank in the developing world?
I guess that it is largely down to a calculation of risk versus reward (as usual). The rewards of investing in a cement plant and integrated building materials business in the UK may be (relatively) low, but then the risks are also low: the UK is a fairly safe bet for long-term moderate growth, with strong population growth and robust GDP per capita.
Who would buy? A company that wants to balance its portfolio (perhaps a company with most of its eggs currently in the fast-growth/developing world basket), is cash rich (or has access to cheap credit), which is already in cement and aggregates and which might wish to carry home some of the technical knowledge from the deal might be interested. Perhaps some of the Chinese state-owned enterprises or ambitious mid-tier companies from the Middle East would be interested. As ever though, whether a deal is done depends on the price asked - and in the end, the price asked might be too high for anyone.
Too much cement in Nigeria?
Written by Global Cement Staff
25 April 2012
Nigeria: This week has seen a major development in the Nigerian cement industry, with a call from domestic manufacturers to ban cement imports, three months ahead of the government's schedule for the ban. The call has been presented in some quarters as proof that the country, long blighted by high cement imports, has achieved President Goodluck Jonathan's bold target of making Nigeria a net exporter of cement before 2013. In the face of steadily diminishing oil revenues the government would like Nigeria to be known as the regional cement exporter, but what else might happen?
According to the Cement Manufacturers' Association of Nigeria (CMAN), the country's total cement capacity now stands at 22.5Mt/yr. Domestic consumption is estimated at 18.5Mt/yr, translating into a required capacity utilisation rate of 82%. It is bizarre, therefore, that cement producers feel the need to call for an import ban. Perhaps:
a) The producers know that they can't compete with the low cost of imports from outside Nigeria,
b) The producers want to recoup their plant investment costs as quickly as possible,
c) The producers know that they can't export if the country continues to import.
With notoriously poor transport links within Nigeria, option c may be a small factor. If road and rail links are poor, transport costs increase and exports become less desirable for both the supplier and the end-user. What is more likely however, is a combination of a and b. Producers need to recoup their investments but can't if China and India can undercut them from thousands of miles away. If the desire to recoup investments goes unchecked when the import ban comes in, there is a high potential for cartel-like behaviour to surface again in the country.
One does not have to look back far to the last major incident of apparent cement market cartelisation in Nigeria. In mid-2011 President Jonathan had to step in and personally call for a 25% price reduction. His target was hit within three months, but since then prices have slowly started to rise again, even with Dangote's Ibese 6Mt/yr plant coming online just three months ago! With four producers committed to setting up a 3Mt/yr plant each by 2015 in exchange for 2011 import licences, the supply of cement in Nigeria will continue to rise, making the temptation to collaborate even stronger.
Indonesia – How high can you go?
Written by Global Cement staff
18 April 2012
Indonesia: It seems that not a week goes past without a forecast, announcement or other report about the continued boom in the Indonesian cement industry. Similarly, there is a steady stream of expansion announcements to accommodate the future demand. In light of another round of impressive cement statistics, what's the story for Indonesia in 2012 and beyond?
In the three months to 31 March 2012 Indonesia produced 12.5Mt of cement, an 18% rise on the first quarter of 2011. In the whole of that year, the cement industry turned out a massive 17% more cement than in 2010. These headline increases are certainly impressive and show that if the first quarter of 2012 was repeated three more times throughout the rest of the year, Indonesia would hit its 53Mt production forecast. This is more than double the cement production of 1998 (22Mt/yr in the midst of the Asian banking crisis) and, while from a low base, the values represent incredible sustained year-on-year demand growth.
But what is the potential of the Indonesian cement industry? This can be assessed by looking one of Indonesia's neighbours, namely Malaysia, and doing a quick thought-experiment. What would the Indonesian cement industry look like if the country were to suddenly develop demands and cement consumption patterns like Malaysia does today? Indonesia has a population 8.3 times higher than Malaysia1 and a cement consumption/capita rate approximately 2.4 times lower.2 Assuming current Indonesian cement consumption to be 50Mt, if all of the people in Indonesia were to suddenly start using cement like Malaysia does today, the country's cement industry would have to be nearly 1000Mt/yr to support demand!
While this is clearly not the case today and is unlikely to be fully realised, Indonesia will continue to develop economically. As it does, the world's fourth most populous nation will need more cement. How much is open to debate, but even if a small percentage of that hypothetical 1000Mt can be realised, it will certainly justify the current rush to add extra capacity. This is now especially likely in light of the December 2011 relaxation of land acquisition rules, which will make it easier to build both cement projects and the large construction projects that need cement.
Click here for much more on the cement industries of Indonesia and Malaysia (as well as Vietnam) from the April 2012 issue of Global Cement Magazine.
1. CIA World Factbook website, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook.
2. Cement consumption per capita data for Malaysia taken from Lafarge 2010 Annual Report. (http://www.lafarge.com/04112011-customers_activities-cement_market_2010-uk.pdf). Malaysia is a representative comparison for Indonesia based on its GDP to cement consumption ratio.