
Analysis
Search Cement News
Gunpoint negotiation
Written by Global Cement staff
01 February 2012
Spare a thought for your fellow cement workers this week as reports emerge of plant employees being forced back to work at gunpoint in Kenya and Chinese workers being kidnapped in Egypt.
The news that workers have been coerced with bullets is just one horror story from the ongoing soap opera that is the East African Portland Cement Company. Since the Kenyan government dismissed the directors in December 2011, over allegations of alleged mismanagement, progressively more murky disclosures have emerged. Although the latest reports suggest that all the 1200 permanent employees have now returned to work, the situation remains volatile. Anyone who thought that a judge could simply order the plant back to work because he said so has underestimated the situation.
On one side sit the directors who have already been sacked and reinstated by the government following accusations of non-competitive tenders and rampant expenses claims in December 2011. Running scared of their own employees, they now have to face the Maasai elders who supporting the directors by ordering the closure of the gypsum, limestone and pozzolana mines. On the other side is the Kenyan government which was legally forced to return the directors they dismissed. In the middle remain the workers, at work for now but for who knows how much longer.
By contrast the 25 mostly Chinese cement factory workers who have been kidnapped in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula may have had the best management in the world. Yet working internationally can bring risks such as political instability that are hard to predict.
Elsewhere in this issue of Global Cement Weekly, you can read about new plant plans in Indonesia, rampant overcapacity in Vietnam, soaring profits in Saudi Arabia and the news that Italcementi is likely to have to sack 7.5% of its workforce.
Indian cement industry sending out mixed signals
Written by Global Cement staff
25 January 2012
This week has seen the start of what is likely to become a string of positive financial results from the Indian cement industry. UltraTech Cement, Shree Cement and Hyderabad Industries have already seen massive improvements in their profits for the final quarter of 2011, up in one case by over 100% compared to 2010.
On the face of it such results do not chime with a recent report by Fitch Ratings, which predicts a 'negative outlook' for the Indian cement industry in 2012. Fitch's report says that based on expected growth of 2-5%, overcapacity and an increase in interest rates will prey on margins in 2012, making any mini-boom short-lived. The impressive profits may well evaporate come the end of March.
India's capacity utilisation rate dropped to just 65% in the last quarter of 2011. This is not a statistic indicative of a booming cement industry and, coupled to reports of increased profits from the sector, indicates that higher prices are being used to maintain margins.
With even more capacity being added every week and the prospect of increased input costs as the year develops, how long will this strategy work? Will the topic of cartelisation be raised again in India? The new head of the Cement Manufacturers' Association has a lot to consider as he takes up his role.
Elsewhere in this issue of Global Cement Weekly, we have the news that the German BDZ and VDZ are to fully merge, plant projects in Russia and Saudi Arabia and the latest on the developing situation in Kenya, where East Africa Portland Cement Company (EAPCC) is still in dispute with its workers. EAPCC and the government's expectation that work can resume on 26 January 2012 appears to be ill-founded considering continued resentment shown by the workforce.
Holcim profit shock - The tip of the iceberg?
Written by Global Cement staff
18 January 2012
Holcim announced yesterday a shock profits warning after it included Euro641m in one-off charges in its 2011 accounts. Over half of this amount, a massive Euro343m, came from writedowns at its former South African subsidiary AfriSam, which has been unable to deal with poor trading conditions there. Writedowns in the US and parts of Europe made up the rest of the one-off costs. The move has prompted fears from analysts that other cement manufacturers may follow suit, taking the sector into unknown territory. What other skeletons are hiding in the cupboards of the big multinationals?
Meanwhile, an old cement industry problem that is not unfamiliar to AfriSam, cartelisation, has reared its ugly head again. After five Spanish producers were ordered to pay a combined Euro11.1m over an alleged cartel in northern Spain, authorities in Pakistan searched the offices of its national cement association, the APCMA, on Monday. They were following a tip-off that cement companies have been monitoring each others' dispatches, a practice deemed illegal in previous investigations. A previous cartel case from 2009-2010 is still pending in Pakistan so any action against producers will likely to take years to be brought.
Elsewhere, the situation has gone from bad to worse at the East Africa Portland Cement Company in Kenya, with protests over the re-instatement of previously-fired board members turning violent on Monday. With one worker hospitalised after being shot by an over-zealous security guard, it is hard to see how the current situation can be resolved without the removal of the current management. The government has assured the workers that it is working on the problem.
At the same time in Kenya, National Cement Company's (NCC) plans to build a quarry and clinker plant south of Nairobi have been slammed by local Massai groups, environmental NGOs and even the state-owned Kenya Wildlife Service. NCC plans to 'buy-off' the Massai with a jobs scheme, but this doesn't address the conservation issues. Global Cement urges NCC to re-examine its plans and the location of its proposed plant, and to work closely with the Kenya Wildlife Service.
Holcim's hopes for New Zealand
Written by Global Cement staff
11 January 2012
Holcim seems to be back on track with its beleaguered Weston plant, with the news of a port deal for an undisclosed amount.
Since the plant was proposed in 2007 a string of delays have occurred. In July 2011 it had been asking contractors to register interest in the project. As reported in October 2011 Holcim put its New Zealand project on hold due to the 'global economic downturn'. Then in November 2011 Holcim reported a staggering 32% drop in income in the third quarter and blamed it on the strong Swiss franc: ideal for a little overseas spending. Even in the current global economic gloom there may be some benefits.
Back in Africa we have a third 'reality' from the local industry of a much more familiar nature: corruption.
With the former board of the East African Portland Cement Company (EAPCC) going to court against the Kenyan government over allegations of corruption and counter-allegations of government strong-arm tactics it puts into perspective why EAPCC might have changed its clinker supplier last week. With current price rises of 25% in Nigeria and even two positive stories from South Africa this week, the gains may be high but so are the risks.
African Industry Realities
Written by Global Cement staff
04 January 2012
The East Africa Portland Cement Company's (EAPCC) decision to change clinker supplier highlights two of the realities of the industry in Africa.
Firstly in the wake of the on-going East African production boom opportunity abounds. As reported in Global Cement Weekly #27, Kenya and Tanzania are leading an investment boom in East African capacity with surges in consumption of 12% and 18% respectively. Although it's not all good news as the on-going debacle with AfriSam's debts show.
Secondly, it exposes the hangover from state-ownership that much of the key players are still suffering. Certainly as our Vietnam story shows this week there is less room for uncompetitive legislation with producers outside the region lying in wait to secure sales. Indeed such is the growing optimism for cement in the continent as a whole that the Nigerian president described the cement industry as 'critical' to making his nation's economy more diverse.
Elsewhere this week we present some optimism with new contracts for FLSmidth in Brazil, expansion in Saudi Arabia and encouraging research on US infrastructure spending. Despite recent tough times the US retains its position as the third largest cement consumer globally. If Kenya, Tanzania or Nigeria ever overtake the US on consumption then we'll know that the world has changed.