Displaying items by tag: Anhui Conch

The first half of 2023 has continued to be a tough period for the major China-based cement producers, with revenue and profits down for many. As CNBM put it, the sector is facing production overcapacity, weak demand, high inventory, low prices and declining profits. However, not every company has followed this trend, with a few such as Anhui Conch, Huaxin Cement and Tapai Group managing to hold operating income up and the latter somehow even managing to increase its net profit. The China Cement Association (CCA) in its financial coverage has memorably described these companies that have bucked the national picture as ‘dark horses.’

Graph 1: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports. Note: For CNBM, cement revenue shown only.

Graph 1 above summarises the situation for a selected group of cement producers. Anhui Conch avoided the fate of CNBM by managing to grow its non-cement revenue, specifically from aggregates and concrete. Yet it too was unble to avoid its net profit falling by 32% year-on-year to US$928m in the first half of 2023 from US$1.37bn in the same period in 2022. Huaxin Cement pulled off the same trick by raising its concrete and aggregates revenue domestically and by growing its overseas revenue. As well as its subsidiaries in Africa, the company also added Oman Cement to its portfolio, completing the acquisition of a majority stake in April 2023. The CCA has a wider roundup of how well the local cement companies have done.

Graph 2: Cement output in China, 2019 to first half of 2023. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China suggests that the cement sector is stagnating rather than actively declining. This is an improvement of sorts from the decline in the first half of 2022, at least. Cement output in the first half of 2023 rose ever so slightly to 980Mt from 979Mt in the same period in 2022. On a rolling annual basis cement output has been gently falling below 1% each month since November 2022, although it rose by nearly 1% in March 2023.

The underlying problem for the Chinese cement sector remains the local real estate market. Developer Country Garden has been the latest company to warn of potential losses – of up to US$7.6bn – in the first half of 2023. It is also currently attempting to ask for more time to repay a bond. This follows the financial problems that Evergrande has faced since 2021. Financial analysts have been monitoring the situation for several years and warning of what a larger collapse in the sector could mean for the wider economy, such as the implications for the banks that hold the debts of the developers. Commentary by Goldman Sachs in August 2023, for example, suggested that the real estate sector needs to manage its inventory on a large scale, with over US$2Tn in liquidations, in order to restructure debts in the property sector. It estimated that the whole situation could reduce the country’s entire gross domestic product (GDP) by 1.5% in 2023, although this would be the trough of the downturn in its view.

Cement producers in China continue to be held hostage by the conditions in the real estate market and the effect this has in turn on demand for building materials. Yet all is not lost, as the examples of the CCA’s ‘dark horses’ show, buoyed by business diversification, overseas expansion or even regional differences. How much longer the rest of the other cement companies can cope in this environment remains to be seen. A less regulated market would certainly expect to see mergers and acquisitions taking place as the financial pressure mounts. China, for now at least, remains steadfastly different. With luck the real estate market may reach its lowest point in 2023 and a recovery could follow.

China: Anhui Conch grew its concrete and aggregate sales in the first half of 2023 to increase overall sales. Its revenue grew by 16% year-on-year to US$8.99bn in the first half of 2023 from US$7.73bn in the same period in 2022. However, its cement and clinker sales fell by 7% to US$6bn from US$6.46bn. Sales revenue fell in all of its domestic sales regions, although they rose overseas. By contrast, sales and trading of other products more than doubled to US$2.7bn. The group’s sales volumes of cement and clinker increased by 3% to 134Mt. Its total profit fell by 32% to US$928m from US$1.37bn.

In its interim results the company said that it had “actively responded to the complicated and difficult industry situation and strived to overcome the impact of unfavourable factors such as declining real estate investment, sluggish market demand and intensified industry competition.”

Uzbekistan: Anhui Conch Cement inaugurated its new 2.3Mt/yr Tashkent cement plant at Kiziloy on 21 August 2023. The plant cost US$320m and will produce 30% of its cement for export. UzReport News has reported that the plant will directly employ 300 people.

China: Anhui Conch Cement is seeking coal suppliers for two of its subsidiaries. The producer has tendered for bids for contracts to supply 410,000t of bituminous coal, high-sulphur coal and lignite to Naiman Banner Hongji Cement and 10,000t of lignite to Chifeng Conch. Online bidding will open on 25 August 2023 and close on 27 August 2023.

The government in Indonesia made building new cement capacity harder this week. The new rules are intended to strengthen the local sector in the face of a utilisation rate of only 53%. A moratorium policy and/or new investment arrangements have been placed on new cement plant projects. Instead, companies have been asked to focus on the regions of Papua, West Papua, Maluku and North Maluku instead, where demand for cement is higher than what the local production base can produce. Ignatius Warsito, the Director General of the Chemical, Pharmaceutical and Textile Industry at the Ministry of Industry, said that the new rules would be reconsidered once the capacity utilisation rate reaches 85%.

Other measures the government is also looking at include increasing exports of cement, changing regulations related to the coal Public Service Agency (BLU) and improving overland transport. On that last point the authorities and the cement producers are looking at how logistics costs can avoid rising in the face of the impending Zero Over Dimension Over Load (ODOL) policy. Proposals the sector has submitted include implementing a multi-axle policy for trucks and improving the quality of certain roads to allow for higher capacity vehicles.

As one of the government’s focus areas - coal - suggests, fuel prices have been a headache for the cement sector in recent years. Warsito noted that international coal prices started to rise in late 2020. This was likely due to the logistical mess that the coronavirus pandemic caused to the global economy. Higher coal prices caused a “significant” effect on the cement industry through both higher production costs and restrictions on supplies. One irony to note here is that Indonesia is one of the world’s leading coal producers. Donny Arsal, the head of Semen Indonesia, told the government in 2022 that the war in Ukraine had enticed local coal companies to export more coal due to the rising international price. At this time he lobbied the administration to use its local domestic market obligation (DMO) subsidy to better serve the cement sector by giving it more coal at a fixed price.

Graph 1: Cement demand and capacity in Indonesia. Source: Semen Indonesia and Indonesia Cement Association.

Overcapacity has been a recurring feature of the Indonesian cement market since at least the 1990s as the demand and capacity have grown sometimes out of step. The capacity utilisation rate reached 90% in the early 1990s only to fall to 50% by the end of that decade due to the Asian financial crisis. More recently Holcim left the market in 2019 when it sold its business to the Semen Indonesia. The state-owned company consolidated more than half of the country’s cement production capacity at the time. According to its data for the first quarter of 2023 it has a 51% market share and a 46% production capacity share. It also said that 92% of local demand was catered for from four of the country’s 14 producers, namely: Semen Indonesia; Indocement; Conch; and Merah Putih.

A recent study by the Jakarta Post newspaper suggested that after a poor first half in 2023, cement demand was expected to rebound and create modest overall annual growth by the end of the year. The key reasons for this outlook are increased government infrastructure spending, ongoing work on the new capital city Nusantara and anticipated price stability. The new city project, for example, is expected to require 1.6Mt of cement in the 2022 - 2024 period. Risk factors, of course, abound such as a global economic slowdown, financial problems at some of the government-owned construction companies like Waskita Karya and new capacity. A new 8Mt/yr (!) plant owned by local company Kobexindo and China-based Honshi Cement, for instance, is scheduled to start operation in the second half of 2023 in East Kalimantan. Even though the government says that the new unit will export 90% of its production, it will place pressure on other existing sites hoping to increase exports.

The country’s largest cement producer being majority owned by the government is a pertinent feature here given that the same government has also effectively banned new capacity. Semen Indonesia’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) have fallen each year consecutively since 2020. As mentioned above overcapacity has long been present in the local sector and recent events have made it worse. Yet, the companies that are likely to benefit the most from a block on newer, competitive cement plants are likely to be the established players. That said, though, with the utilisation just above 50% and new projects like the Kobexindo-Honshi plant on the way, the government likely feels it has to take some form of action. Other tools at its disposal include a national carbon exchange set to launch in September 2023. Power companies will participate from the start with cement producers anticipated to follow at a later stage. Despite the uncertain short-to-medium term outlook the cement sector in Indonesia remains one of the largest in the world with plenty of business to be done. Denmark-based FLSmidth was clearly mindful of this when it opened a new office in Jakarta in April 2023.

China: Anhui Conch and six partners have agreed to establish a partnership fund. The cement producer informed the Hong Kong Exchange that it will directly contribute US$211m into the fund. Securities firm Haitong Capital will provide fund management services as executive partner.

The Chinese cement sector had a tough time in 2022. This was confirmed this week as the large domestic cement producers released their financial results. Revenue was down, profits fell and cement sales volumes tumbled. The key causes included the continuation of the country’s zero-coronavirus policy, the declining real estate market and rising input costs for raw materials such as coal. Demand for cement withered and so did the fortunes of the cement companies.

Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2018 to 2022. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that cement output fell by 9.8% year-on-year to 2.13Bnt in 2022 from 2.36Bnt in 2021. The greater decrease was in the first half of the year rather than the second. The China Cement Association (CCA) said that this was nearly the lowest output in the last decade and the largest decline since 1969 ! The National Bureau of Statistics of China also pointed out in a release that, despite investment in fixed assets increasing by around 5% in 2022 and national infrastructure spending growing by 9%, real estate development investment dropped by 10% to US$1.46Tn.

Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 3: Sales volumes of cement and clinker from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

The cement producers warned in their forecasts that the results for 2022 were going to be rough and so it came to pass. China National Building Material (CNBM)’s revenue fell by 16% year-on-year to US$33.4bn in 2022 and Anhui Conch’s sales fell by 21% to US$19.2bn in 2022. Although, Tangshang Jidong Cement and Huaxin Cement reported declines of income or revenue in single digits. Profits halved for all of the companies covered here. Various combinations of the reasons covered above were cited for the situation.

What is more interesting are the responses some of the producers are making and what has gone well. CNBM, for example, is pinning its hopes on better staggered peak production and infrastructure projects. Anhui Conch, meanwhile, appears to have been diversifying its business by increasing both its concrete and solar power production capacity significantly in 2022. It was also announced that it plans to spend US$2.81bn on capital expenditure projects in 2023. China Resources Cement (CRC) said it had optimised its presence in South China through selected acquisition and divestments. Huaxin Cement has continued its focus on overseas markets with its share of operating revenue originating from outside China rising to 13% of the group’s total in 2022 compared to 8% in 2021. It also mentioned a number of unnamed projects around the world steadily drawing nearer to action. Sure enough, the group announced earlier in March 2023 that it was buying a majority stake in Oman Cement.

As for 2023, the CCA forecast in January 2023 that cement demand would be flat or slightly down. However, at the same time, provincial changes to the real estate market are expected to improve market conditions and infrastructure development will further drive demand for cement. The CCA identified that the cement sector’s production overcapacity could become an issue with lower demand. In 2022 the national clinker production utilisation rate was 65%, a fall of 10% from that in 2021. It also pointed out that peak-staggered production had actually helped cement producers generally to cope with smaller declines in profits compared to less well regulated industries.

Problems such as the zero-coronavirus policy, the real estate market and rising raw material costs have made the country’s production overcapacity issue worse. Changes are being made such as the national abandonment of the coronavirus lockdowns in late 2022, and, as mentioned above, the real estate market is being modified. In addition to this, various environmental changes are on the way, as the government works towards its sustainability goals. The country remains the largest cement producer in the world. Yet the message here is that we should expect more of the same for the cement sector in China in 2023.

China: Anhui Conch’s sales fell by 21% year-on-year to US$19.2bn in 2022 from US$24.4bn in 2021. Its net profit dropped by 52% to US$2.31bn from US$4.84bn. Sales volumes of cement and clinker decreased by 24% to 310Mt. It blamed the situation on weakening market demand and high energy costs.

New projects that started operation in 2022 included a capacity replacement scheme at its Anhui Chizhou Conch Cement subsidiary and two new clinker production lines at the Qarshi project in Uzbekistan. The group also completed its acquisition of Chongqing Duoji Renewable Resources, Naimanqi Hongji Cement and Chifeng Hahe Cement. By the end of 2022 its cement and concrete production capacities rose by 1% to 269Mt and 73% to 25.5Mm³. Its solar power capacity also more than doubled to 475MW.

China: Anhui Conch Cement plans to invest US$2.81bn in capital expenditure (CAPEX) throughout 2023. The investments will go towards building new capacity, upgrading to new technologies and increasing plants' energy efficiency. The Morning Star newspaper has reported that the producer currently faces high energy costs, against a backdrop of reduced cement demand.

Anhui Conch Cement recorded sales of US$19.2bn in 2022, down by 21% year-on-year from US$24.4n in 2021.

China/Uzbekistan: Anhui Conch has released an update on some of its major development projects. Its new plant at Tashkent in Uzbekistan has an investment of around US$260m. The company reports that 30,000m² of equipment and materials have arrived, the rotary kiln supporting wheels have been hoisted in place, the main body installation of the coal mill has been completed, the structure of the dormitory building has been capped and the main factory area has begun to take shape. It is also building a plant at Brakbash District in Andijan State. Civil engineering and main engineering construction are reportedly underway. The company also has a third cement plant in the country. So far the group has built over 10 cement plants outside of China.

In China, Anhui Conch is building a CO₂ energy storage demonstration project at its Baimashan cement plant in Wuhu, Anhui province. The group says that, once complete, the project will be the world's first commercial demonstration project of a CO₂ energy storage system. It says that during the low power consumption period, the excess power will be used to compress CO₂ at normal temperature and pressure into a liquid. The heat energy generated during the compression process will be stored. The stored heat energy will then be used to heat the liquid CO₂ back into a gas, driving the turbine to generate electricity, reducing the cost of electricity. The demonstration project has an area of 40,000m².

The cement producer says it is working towards a model of ‘one base and five industries’ where cement production links to other industries such as new energy, new materials, environmental protection, the digital economy and the promotion of international trade.