Analysis

One of the comments on the Global Cement LinkedIn group about last week's column posted the US Geological Survey's (USGS) estimated cement production list for 2012.

John Kline commented that the report highlighted the increasing weight of developing countries. There is nothing surprising here, but it is worth noting the implications of this in Lafarge's financial results for 2012, which we report on today. 27% (Euro4.28bn) of the group's sales came from its Middle East and Africa region.

By cement volumes sales 63% or 89.5Mt came from its Middle East/African and Asian regions. Lafarge CEO Bruno Lafont explicitly acknowledged this in his statement accompanying the announcement saying, "Emerging markets continue to be the main driver of demand and Lafarge benefits from its well-balanced geographic spread of high-quality assets".

One of the other commentators remarked on the massive difference between the estimated productions of China (2.15Bnt) and India (250Mt). India was second in the list but has only an eighth of China's production!

Talking of India, our recent article 'The incredible Indian cement industry' in the February 2012 issue of Global Cement Magazine presents a good overview of the situation there. This week's news item on Madras Cements' third quarter results picks out a couple of threads from the complex Indian Picture. Firstly, Madras Cements was fined US$48m by the Competition Commission of India (CCI) for alleged price-fixing. Although the producer is growing its sales, this fine hangs ominously over the balance sheet.

Secondly, the producer's transportation and handling costs grew by a massive 37% year-on-year in the quarter. Rail freight prices increased in India in 2012. These kinds of increase cannot be welcome on cement producers' balance sheets. Unsurprisingly a 'marginal' reduction for cement is under consideration by the Indian Railways.

The Global Cement India Conference, was held in Mumbai this week on 18-19 February 2013, will update us on situation in India. Look out for the report soon.

Three of the big multinational cement producers - HeidelbergCement, Cemex and Italcementi - have already released preliminary reports for 2012. Here's what they tell us.

Geographically, performances in the Americas and Asia propped up balance sheets. Europe, however, continued to ruin the party in 2012.

In its Western and Northern Europe section HeidelbergCement saw a 3.9% decrease in sales of cement and clinker to 21.3Mt from 22.1Mt in 2011. However this was still higher than the sales in 2010 of 19.7Mt.

Cemex's Northern Europe section witnessed a 13% drop in overall net sales to Euro3.05bn. Its Mediterranean section did worse, with a 15% drop in net sales to Euro1.08bn. Both declines were similar to the falls in cement volumes in these regions. Italcementi watched its Central Western Europe region plummet by 16.1% to 16Mt.

To demonstrate the comparative exposure to Western Europe, 25% of HeidelbergCement's sale volumes came from Western Europe and 35% of Italcementi's sale volumes came from Western Europe. Cemex hasn't released any figures for sales of cement in its preliminary results but overall in cement, aggregates and concrete, 37% of its sales came from its two European regions.

HeidelbergCement noted that demand for construction materials remained stable in Germany and Northern Europe. However it weakened in the UK and the Netherlands. By contrast Cemex noted a decrease in cement volumes for the year in Germany although it became stable by the fourth quarter. For the UK it had the same experience as HeidelbergCement, with a similar downturn in France and Poland. In its Mediterranean region Cemex recorded a whopping 40% decrease in cement volumes. Although light on detail, Italcementi pointed out a 25% drop in cement consumption in Italy and a 8% drop in France and Belgium.

In November 2012 the European Commission forecast that gross domestic product (GDP) would fall by 0.3% in the European Union (EU) in 2012. Broadly in line with the national situations reported above, Germany's GDP is forecast to have risen in 2012; the UK's, the Netherlands', Belgium, Italy and Spain's GDPs looks to have fallen in 2012. Curiously though, both France and Poland were forecast to have improving GDPs in 2012. HeidelbergCement and Cemex's experiences suggest that this didn't happen in the French construction industry. The (next) light at the end of the tunnel for 2013 is that EU regional GDP growth is forecast to become positive again.

With Lafarge and Holcim due to release their annual report for 2012 in late February 2012, we'll revisit this topic in a few weeks time.

A stark reminder came this week of the thankfully rare but potential risks of working in the cement industry. Five deaths were reported at Ambuja Cement's Bhatapara cement plant in India on 31 January 2013.

According to a press release Ambuja issued, the steel construction supporting a fly ash hopper located on top of a building, and connected to the cement mill, collapsed at the Bhatapara plant. Further details in local press reports added that about 200t of fly ash fell from a height of 15m. Five labourers and plant employees working at the site were buried under the debris and subsequently died. Four officials from the company have since been arrested and the plant closed while investigations are conducted.

Previously in January 2013 burn injuries were reported as another Ambuja cement plant, this time at Darlaghat. Eight workers received burns after a blast from a boiler unit.

However, despite these incidents the safety figures for Ambuja Cement and the other major Indian producers are high. In Ambuja Cement's 2011 sustainability report it recorded that its lost time injury frequency rate (LTIFR) was 1.04 for total employees and supervised workers. Its LTIFR has been dropping steadily since 2008, when it was 3.18.

This compares to other major Indian cement producers as follows. UltraTech Cement reported that its LTIFR for permanent employees was 0.82 in 2011-2012, a consistent drop year by year since 2008-2009. ACC reported that its LTIFR for its own and subcontracted employees was 0.31 in 2011. Shree Cement reported a LTIFR of 0.91 in 2010-2011 for employees and contractors. For international comparison the Mineral Products Association set a LTIFR target of 1.79 or lower for 2014 in the UK. Lafarge's global LTIFR in 2011 was 0.63 and Holcim's was 1.6.

An Ambuja's plant in Rajasthan picked up two national awards from the Government of India for Safety Performance in mid 2012. One was for first place for outstanding performance in Industrial Safety based on 'Lowest Average Frequent Rate'. The second was a runners-up prize for the category 'Accident Free Year'. Lafarge India, UltraTech, ACC and the other major producers all hold similar accolades. Sadly, any safety record is only as good as the shift that has just finished.

The Iranian authorities may have taken glee in recent months in reporting that their country is on course to become the third biggest cement producer in the world. It's the position normally taken by the US in recent years (after China and India). For a country reeling from US-led sanctions it must provide some comfort. Yet what is the cost of this industrial 'victory'?

In December 2012 Iran's production for the first eight months of the Iranian calendar year beat the previous period by 6% to 49Mt. Current projections see the country hitting 75Mt by the end of the 2012-2013 year and then 85Mt by the close of the 2013-2014 year. Claims that Iran is now becoming the world's third biggest producer fit with estimated cement production figures for 2011 from the US Geological Survey (USGS) putting Iran behind China and India. The US produced 68Mt in 2011. A rough estimate for Portland cement shipped in the US in 2012 from USGS data is 79Mt.

Two stories this week build up a complex picture of the cement industry in Iran. Iranian news agencies have been reporting frequently how well the domestic industry has done in recent months. The latest concerns how Iran's Bank of Industry & Mine has allocated around Euro400m to complete 15 cement projects since 2010. However, also this week, we can report that Iran is facing a seasonal decline of cement demand leading to large stores of clinker in some plants. One can't quite imagine the state run news agencies reporting that they have larger stores of clinker than the US.

Despite the increasingly complicated international trade sanctions in force against Iran, exports are booming. In the current Iranian calendar year they have jumped by 30% to 9Mt, going principally to Iraq, Central Asia, United Arab Emirates and Afghanistan, where it has displaced a significant proportion of Pakistani exports. As our columnist Yves De Moor commented in the November 2012 issue of Global Cement Magazine, Iranian cement is cheap due to overcapacity but hard to import due to the sanctions.

In the absence of recent consumption figures for Iran, comparing the US and Iran on a graph of cement consumption per capita against GDP per capita helps. The US remains at the upper end of the distribution curve at 250kg/capita and US$48,000/capita. Iran is flying off above the other end of the curve at 1000kg/capita and US$13,000/capita. This suggests either overcapacity or a production boom.

Further overcapacity can only push the price of exported cement down further making neighbouring markets more willing to brave the sanctions. This may support Iran's economy as President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad has stated that non-oil exports are one way his country can overcome the sanctions. Additionally, overcapacity offers some political capital on the world stage. The cost for the Iranian cement industry if and when the sanctions end may be devastating though.

Forget Europe! The US cement industry is back in the game and could be looking forward to growth of 8.1% in cement consumption, according to a new forecast from the Portland Cement Association (PCA). This compares to a growth of 6% in consumption the PCA predicted in the autumn of 2012 in the shadow of the US 'fiscal cliff'.

The new forecast is based upon PCA research that estimates that total residential housing starts will reach 954,000 units in 2013. To give an idea of how badly the 2007 financial crisis hit the US residential housing market, according to US Census Bureau data in 2005 a total of 2,068,300 total housing start units were recorded. In 2007 this fell to 1,355,000 units. By 2009 this levelled out at 554,000, the lowest figure since at least 1960. A loose comparison with Spanish cement consumption in 2012 is worth noting here, when it too hit levels not seen since the 1960s.

The PCA's report predicts US cement consumption of 78.5Mt in 2013. As we pointed out in our overview of the US Cement Industry in the May 2012 issue of Global Cement Magazine, in 2006 the cement consumption of the United States was 122Mt. When the financial crisis hit, consumption nearly halved to 67Mt in 2009. The prediction for 2013 is a great improvement but the levels of 2005 are still a long way off. Currently, the Global Cement Directory 2013 places US cement production capacity at 114Mt/yr.

Other encouraging signs for the US cement industry include the sale of two Lafarge plants to Eagle Materials in September 2012 and less industry anxiety over US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) emissions legislation. Lafarge choosing to sell plants in Missouri and Oklahoma with the US market starting to recover suggests that the French producer may have had its doubts. Yet Eagle Materials certainly thought the plants were worth the price tag of US$446m.

In summary the signs are broadly positive for the US cement industry at the start of 2013 although the dizzy heights of consumption of the early 2000s seem a long way off. US cement producers may take comfort from recent news stories from Beijing about efforts to contain air pollution from a cement plant. Hopefully for them it will be a case of 'been there, done that'.