Analysis

A recent BBC television documentary explained the rise of low-cost airlines in the UK in the early 1990s. With news of an independent cement grinding plant in western France doing the rounds this week, we ask could the same revolution happen in the cement industry?

Back in the early 1990s following deregulation in the European aviation industry, smaller airlines took the opportunity to try a different model to the larger national carriers. Taking cost-cutting ideas from the US-based Southwest Airlines (deregulation had occurred earlier in the US) new companies like Ryanair and EasyJet burst into the short haul market, seizing market share and changing people's attitudes to air travel. For example, low to medium income males going on a 'British Gentlemen' stag (bachelor) party to a European destination such as Ayia Napa or Riga would have been unthinkable before the mid-1990s.

Flying passengers around Europe and producing cement are clearly radically different businesses. However, Kercim Cements' objective to produce 600,000t of cement and take a 10% share of the local market near Saint-Nazaire in Loire-Atlantique department of France stands out. With the European cement industry in decline and endless stories about cement exporting nations flooding developing markets, taking a grinding-led business model suddenly sounds considerably more competitive.

In addition, an independent company importing clinker from non-EU countries might also benefit from not being subject to quota allocations of CO₂. This issue was raised from a different angle earlier in 2013, when Irish company Ecocem complained about large cement producers making profits from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) despite reduced production.

Thinking around grinding as the model for an industry step-change, one of the presenters at the Global CemTrader conference in May 2013 was Moisés Nunez of Cemengal. He spoke about 'Plug&Grind', his company's low-cost modular grinding plant technology. Essentially, the Spanish company can fit a grinding station into 15 shipping containers and assemble the grinding unit wherever the client can transport it to. Once again, this sounds perfect for a global cement industry that is making too much clinker.

As this column has reported previously, Africa is the ideal target for a low-cost grinding-led business model given its overall high level of demand for cement. Any cement business near the coast has been under intense competition from imports. So much so, that former PPC (Portland Pretoria Cement) head Paul Stuiver stated that any African facility built within 200km of a port was at risk. Could French and other EU-based coastal cement plants also be at risk? With the cost of production and transport on the rise, the low-cost grinding model may even work in Europe. The beauty of the Cemengal system is that it is mobile so that it can follow market opportunity.

As the Economist recently pointed out in a review of the global cement industry, it is an industry dominated by a small number of companies. High cost of entry, high transport costs by road and other factors mean that this is unlikely to change anytime soon. Yet, exports by sea provide some level of increased competition. Both of the grinding projects mentioned above rely on this fact. Let's wait and see what happens.

Lafarge's decision to expand in Zimbabwe adds to the mix in sub-Saharan Africa.

As we discussed in Global Cement Weekly #104, Dangote and PPC (formerly Pretoria Portland Cement) may be facing off as the biggest local cement producers in the region but the influence of the European-based producers should not be dismissed too readily. Investing US$200m over the next 10 years matches PPC's similarly sized investment announced in November 2012. According to Lafarge, the spend will help maintain the cement producer's market share in the country.

The other point of note from Lafarge's Zimbabwe announcement is the emphasis on the multinational's 'Building Better Cities' campaign in the story. This is unsurprising given that that Lafarge Zimbabwe Managing Director Jonathan Shoniwa made the comments about Lafarge Zimbabwe at a branding event for the campaign. Similar events are happening around the world. However, looked at overall, the decision to place cities at the heart of its marketing makes an increasingly compelling case for a variety of markets.

Some commenters on the Global Cement LinkedIn Group discussed this very issue recently in response to a news story on Lafarge's next set of expansion plans for China. Specifically, someone asked why would Lafarge want to expand in a market suffering from overcapacity!

The Building Better Cities campaign offers one answer. As China prepares to shut down excess capacity, Lafarge's strategy to be in place once the dust settles (perhaps literally in some places) starts to make sense. As a marketing tagline 'building better cities' works well because who doesn't – from Zimbabwe to China to even France – want better cities with better transport links through price, planning, technical and aesthetic innovations.

To give a sense of the environmental zeitgeist happening in China right now, this week we carry a news story on the Chinese Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs reporting 17 Chinese cement companies for environmental misdemeanours. Elsewhere, we can see evidence of continued foreign enthusiasm for investment in the Chinese cement market from Japan's Sumitomo Osaka Cement, despite fears of overcapacity. Lafarge is saying the right things at the right time but it may not be alone in its strategy.

In the global cement news this week, we see that PPC (the former Pretoria Portland Cement), a large-scale domestic player in the South African cement industry, has taken it upon itself to provide association-like services to cement and concrete consumers in the country. PPC says that it felt obliged to supply information on things like quantity analysis, setting advice and product testing in the place of the now-defunct Cement and Concrete Institute (CCI).

The CCI, lambasted by PPC and other cement producers for years, was accused in April 2013 by PPC of not providing the kind of advice and services that cement producers should expect from an association. PPC, Lafarge and AfriSam all pulled funding and the CCI collapsed.

If the CCI had simply ceased to exist, PPC's new stance, putting its own cash into industry-wide assistance, might be seen as laudable. However, the CCI has been re-born as the Concrete Institute (CI), an organisation that is, by its own admission, no longer on the lookout for the interests of the whole industry. The CI is largely backed by Sephaku Cement, itself majority owned by the Nigerian cement juggernaut Dangote Cement, making PPC's stance suddenly look like one of self-preservation. Dangote is making rapid progress in the sub-Saharan cement industry and firms like PPC cannot afford to let it sweep aside the status-quo in South Africa.

The speed and scale of Dangote's rise, covered previously in this column, is huge. Nigeria's largest company now has interests in Senegal, Zambia, Tanzania, Congo, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast and Liberia as well as Nigeria and South Africa. Not a month goes by without the announcement of another upgrade, plant or project. Dangote has a fantastic position in its domestic market that has enabled these new projects to be funded.

By contrast PPC is battling a stale construction market in South Africa. South African cement sales fell by 3.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2012. To counteract this, PPC has committed to expand outside of South Africa to the tune of 40% of total production by the start of 2016. It announced in early 2013 that production is on track to come online in Rwanda, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo by the fourth quarter of 2015. Zimbabwe is expected to follow suit by the middle of 2016. It already has interests in Botswana and Mozambique.

With two of its largest home-grown cement producers both expanding rapidly outside of their domestic markets, and a relative lack of interest from the big four multinationals, the sub-Saharan cement market is set for big changes in the medium to long term. PPC and Dangote are expanding towards each other and already share many markets. Dangote has expanded more rapidly and is moving towards exports from Nigeria. PPC is catching up by taking shares in strategically-placed plants. Is sub-Sahara headed for a showdown...? Whatever happens, the future of this rapidly-growing market will certainly be interesting.

ASEC Cement CEO Giorgio Bodo has cited security, fuel scarcity and general instability as the challenges facing cement producers in Egypt.

The comments came with the announcement that ASEC Minya had started clinker production at its 2Mt/yr Minya plant. In the news report ASEC congratulated itself on reaching clinker production within 28 months. Construction originally began in December 2010, just before the Egyptian Revolution of early 2011 occurred.

Bodo's comments will come as no surprise to delegates of the recent Global CemTrader conference which took place on 23 – 24 May 2013 in London, UK. In his presentation on current political unrest in the Arab countries and the implications for the cement industry, Bodo outlined seismic changes to the Egyptian cement market. As per his comments with the Minya announcement, challenges included the loss of fuel subsidies, fuel shortages, oversupply of cement and a decline in export prices. However, the overall picture was a mixed one. Bodo expected growth to be driven by growing political stability, increased government and private-sector spending, new development projects coming on-line, new export opportunities and other reasons.

Meanwhile, battles over the energy costs and supply in Egypt became public this week when Jose Maria Magrina, the CEO of Arabian Cement Company (ACC) implored the government to help cement producers move away from using natural gas, by removing operating licenses and speeding up the granting of environmental permits. Around the same time a member of the Federation of Egyptian Industries revealed that the government plans to increase the price of natural gas by over 75% for cement producers by 2016. Eventually the cement industry will be expected to source its energy needs independently.

Misr Cement announced in May 2013 that it too was preparing to use coal following a 14-hour shutdown of its kilns due to a shortage of mazot (heavy duty fuel oil). Figures with the ACC release stated that energy shortages have caused the cement industry in Egypt an effective loss of 20% (3.7Mt) of its production capacity since February 2013, with a 25% loss for ACC (350,000t). Suez Cement has also confirmed that it too has cut production by 20 - 30% so far in 2013. ¬

Unsurprisingly in this situation the alternative fuels sector has shown considerable interest in Egypt as Dirk Lechtenberg, MVW Lechtenberg & Partner, reports in the June 2013 issue of Global Cement Magazine [LINK]. Agricultural waste such as rice straw has shown potential as an alternative fuel for cement kilns. Refuse-derived fuels present a harder challenge given competition from the informal economy scavenging through rubbish tips.

Despite the many problems facing local cement producers, Egypt's compound annual growth rate in expected to be 3% for the next five years. In addition it was recently announced by the Minister of investments that Brazilian investors intend to invest US$2bn into the local cement sector.

Three stories this week from the Philippines build a complex picture of a booming cement industry. San Miguel purchased a 25% stake in Northern Cement, Lafarge Republic announced its capital expenditure budget for 2013 and the country's on-going price probe reported on its progress.

San Miguel's entry into the market should raise the most interest since its president stated that the company intends to spend US$750m on the construction of three cement plants. Each plant will have a cement production capacity of 2Mt/yr with construction timed to start in 2013 and finish by the end of 2015.

This level of investment, if it happens, surpasses the last major build announcement in the Philippines. In May 2013 Holcim released details of a US$550m plant in Bulacan with a capacity of 2.5Mt/yr. Some indication of the viability of San Miguel's plans may be gleaned from the comparative costs of the projects. San Miguel's plans will cost US$125/t of installed capacity, less than half of Holcim's US$220/t. Possible reasons for this difference may lie in San Miguel releasing the wrong figures or a reliance on lower build quality. However San Miguel's sheer size - its net income was US$2.25bn in 2011 - may itself herald the start of a major player in the domestic cement industry.

Meanwhile the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) has continued to investigate why the price of cement has risen since 2012. Currently prices are about 5% above the suggested retail price for cement. Cement producers blamed the increases on a higher cost of coal.

The Philippines is currently experiencing massive cement sales increases. In 2012 sales rose by 17.5% to 18.4Mt from 15.6Mt in 2011. With a total capacity of 21Mt/yr and a capacity utilisation rate of 85% in 2012, this growth looks set to continue in 2013, as confirmed by more rises in sales in the first quarter.