Analysis

The third quarter results are in and signs of a recovery in the construction industry are present. Generally for the European producers, volumes of cement sold in the third quarter of 2013 have improved year-on-year compared to the figures for the first nine months of 2013. Although many of these third quarter sales changes are still negative it seems like the industry has turned a corner.

Lafarge reported that cement sales fell by 4% year-on-year to 102Mt for the first nine months in 2013. In the third quarter of 2013 sales remained stable year–on-year at 36.7Mt. Holcim saw its nine month sales fall by 3% to 104Mt while its third quarter sales remained stable at 36Mt. HeidelbergCement saw its nine month sales rise by 1% to 67.7Mt while its third quarter sales rose by 4% to 25.3Mt. Italcementi saw its nine month sales fall by 6% to 32.6Mt while its third quarter sales fell by 2% to 10.8Mt.

By region some of the differences between the European-based multinational cement producers have been telling. Lafarge, for example, is still down year-on-year on cement volumes sold in North America, denting the perceived wisdom of a strong North American recovery. However, profit indicators such as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) have risen in that region, increasingly in the third quarter. Cemex and Holcim have done better in this region.

Notably, the unstable political situation in Egypt has also impacted the balance sheets for Lafarge and Italcementi. Lafarge reported that cement sales volumes fell by 27% for the first nine months of 2013, principally due to gas shortages, and 19% for the third quarter as the company started to substitute other fuels. Similarly, Italcementi saw overall cement and clinker sales drop by 11.2% in the nine months and 14% in the third quarter.

Meanwhile in China, Anhui Conch produced 86.2Mt for the nine months, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. Overall revenues in China seem to have risen after decreases in 2012. Anhui Conch reported that its operating revenue rose by 15% to US$6.08bn for the first nine months and US$2.20bn for the third quarter of 2013. Analysts have pinned the return to profit to building in the country's eastern and southern provinces and the effects of government-led industry consolidation. Bucking this trend though, China National Building Materials (CNBM) saw its revenue rise by 37% to US$13.5bn for the first nine months of 2013 but its profit fell by 8.1% to US$542m.

Anhui Conch, Lafarge, Holcim, CNBM, Italcementi and HeidelbergCement all feature at the top of Global Cement's list of the 'Top 75 global cement companies' to be published in the December 2013 issue of Global Cement Magazine. Ahead of final publication we want to know whether readers agree with the rankings. Download our list (registration required) and let us know your comments by 1 December 2013.

Demand for cement is so intense in Saudi Arabia that certain producers have reported production line shutdowns in dedicated stock market statements. Notably, industry newcomer Hail Cement reported a scheduled shutdown for late October/early November 2013, Al Jouf Cement reported unscheduled shutdowns in October and June 2013 and Najran Cement reported scheduled maintenance in July 2013. Even a short delay to cement production is a newsworthy event for both investors and analysts.

Saudi cement producers have risen to the infrastructure challenges of the country's Ninth Development Plan, increasing cement production by 6% year-on-year to 42.7Mt for the first nine months of 2013. In this febrile environment, the king ordered 10Mt of cement imports in April 2013 followed by government demands for producers to build up a two-month 'strategic' inventory reserve. Unsurprisingly, as we report this week, exports of cement from Saudi Arabia have fallen by 55% for the first nine months of 2013.

At the time of Global Cement's feature on Saudi Arabia in December 2012 only two of the country's cement producers had an inventory of joint clinker and cement stock meeting the government's stockpiling request. For the first nine months of 2013 the situation remains the same although the overall inventory has increased by 18% year-on-year to 10.3Mt. This compares to the end of 2012 where inventories fell year-on-year by 14% to 7Mt.

Unsurprisingly again, the Kingdom's major cement producers have seen balance sheets bulge so far in 2013. Yamama Cement reported a 12% year-on-year rise in net profit to US$145m for the first half of 2013 on the back of local demand. Saudi Cement Company reported a 5% year-on-year rise in its net profits to US$173m and Southern Province Cement saw a 4% year-on-year rise in its net profits to US$150m for the same period. Yanbu Cement saw its net profit rise by 29% year-on-year to US$176m for the first nine months of 2013.

With more large government infrastructure contracts pending, analysts expect the Saudi cement market to remain heated. Although as NCB Capital pointed out in September 2013, uncertainties over fuel supplies for coming cement plant expansions provide uncertainty to the situation. Nobody wants a repeat of the Yanbu - Aramco spat over fuel supplies that occurred in 2011. Irony would barely describe the situation if a Saudi Arabian cement boom was dented by a lack of fuel in one of the countries with the biggest oil reserves in the world.

Global Cement will be at stand T9 at the 18th Arab-International Cement Conference and Exhibition in Jordan from 11 – 13 November 2013

Eurocement recently trumpeted the production of two new types of cement at its Podgorensky plant in Voronezh Region. A focus on standards follows a self-declared offensive being taken by the leading Russian cement producer against foreign imports since August 2013.

When the 3Mt/yr Podgorensky plant reached its full production capacity in July 2013, Eurocement president Mikhail Skorokhod gave a press conference to promote his products over the imports from Iran and Turkey. Some of the more humorous comments Skorokhod made to the press included suggesting that Iranian cement might be radioactive and the revelation that the title of Eurocement's in-house magazine, 'All Shades of Grey', might be inspired by an erotic novel with a similar name ('50 Shades of Grey').

More seriously, Russia's southern regions between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea are vulnerable to foreign imports. Both Turkey and Iran have high cement production capacities and they have access to the country via these two seas. In addition to rising housing construction in Russia since 2010, cement demand is expected to further take a boost from building associated with the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics and the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

As stated by Skorokhod, the Podgorensky cement plant was created to fight foreign imports. Hence the focus on standards and government approval. The cement types in question - TSEM I 52.5N and TSEM II/ A-Sh 42.5N - were certified by NIIMosstroy (the Moscow Construction Research Institute) with additional testing conducted by the Voronezh Regional Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology. The move was similar to attempts made in recent years by local producers in southern and eastern Africa to focus consumers' minds on quality versus the potential risks of low-cost imports.

Eurocement clearly wants to fight imports head on given that, according to CMPRO data, total cement imports to Russia nearly doubled from 2.8Mt in 2011 to 5.1Mt in 2012. Turkey, Belarus and Iran were the main importers in 2012. In 2012 cement imports as a percentage of consumption hit their highest level since 2008. At the same time Russian consumption of cement rose by 13% to 65Mt in 2012 from 58Mt in 2012.

Back in August 2013, Skorokhod said that the Podgorensky plant had cut imports to the southern ports. With no figures available yet for imports in 2013 we can only wait and see.

In the run-up to the publication of the Global Cement Directory 2014 we have released a Beta (draft) version for readers to provide corrections, clarifications or additions ahead of the final publication in late November 2013. In this week's issue of Global Cement Weekly we cover news stories on new cement plant or production upgrade plans in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Niger and Venezuela. This demonstrates how fast cement production can change around the world in just one week!

Looking at the major trends of the past year, we see a gradual re-emergence of 'developed' economies from the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 - 201? - with an increase in cement demand that is patchy in the extreme. The US cement market is starting to heat up - but it starts from a historically low base. Former superstars stars like Spain and Italy are still firmly in the Doldrums and show no sign of growing, countries that are becoming used to a painfully permanent lower cement demand.

India has suffered from over-capacity (whilst at the same time building even more capacity – one wonders how the industry still manages to make a profit). China's cement industry continues to defy gravity – partly through state support and partly through central edicts as to which plants will close (handily reducing nominal overcapacity) and which will stay open. Chinese cement plants have rapidly been installing environmental abatement equipment amidst an ongoing environmental crisis in China. It remains to be seen if China can avoid a 'hard landing.' Other Asian countries are progressing well a full 15 years after the Asian Crisis.

Africa continues to get its act together and could yet become a global cement demand powerhouse. South America shows strong promise, particularly Brazil. The Middle East is a perfect example of the old saying "Be careful what you wish for."

Download the Beta version of the Global Cement Directory 2014 (free download - registration required)

If you try visiting the website of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) this week you are going to be disappointed.

As part of the on-going US federal government shutdown the site has been marked as 'unavailable'. Anyone in search of US cement data and a raft of other national and international statistics will have to wait. Ditto the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Although its website is still live, its last tweet on 1 October 2013 was, 'The federal government is currently shut down.'

Some cement producers in the US may be relieved that the EPA is on a hiatus. However if you cast your mind back to the Portland Cement Associations' (PCA) optimistic growth forecast in September 2013 you may remember the following from PCA chief economist Ed Sullivan. "Assuming Congress has learned its lesson from the fiscal cliff and will take a more rational approach with the upcoming debt limit discussions, political uncertainty and its adverse impact on the economy is expected to dissipate."

Whoops.

The construction industry will be watching carefully to see how planned future infrastructure spending emerges from the debacle. If it gets cut in the horse-trading then US cement consumption growth will take a blow. Meanwhile, if the residential construction market takes a knock due to all the uncertainty and general reduction of money in the economy from federal employees not working then cement consumption gets hit immediately. Hence Sullivan's get-out comments about Congress.

Perhaps what will really concentrate minds on the fragile state of the US construction economy is if a Chinese company buys into the cement industry, as is happening elsewhere around the world. As reported this week, the state-owned Chinese aerospace and defence company AVIC International made an offer to shareholders to take over German cement plant builder KHD Humboldt Wedag.

The US federal government needs to get back to work.