Analysis

Announcements this week have highlighted the situation in the Egyptian cement industry, which has been bearing the brunt of increasing fuel scarcity for a while now. At first glance this appears bizzare in what is an oil-rich country but a government drive to make revenue from exports has constricted supply and led to a massive increase in fuel costs. Since the middle of 2012 Egyptian cement producers have faced a gradual decline in supplies, massive hikes in price due to the curtailment of subsidiaries and a scramble for 'alternative fuels'.... like coal!

While heavy fuel oil prices were on the rise as early as 2012, it is in 2014 that the cement industry has really begun to feel the brunt of supply cuts. January and February saw the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) cut its allocation of gas to cement producers by 35%, enough to significantly raise competition for the remaining allocation. By May 2013 this has resulted in interruptions to gas supply that closed some plants and slowed down many more. Producers were trumpeting coal as the big new 'alternative' fuel and conversion projects were announced in quick succession. Worse was to come. In June 2014 saw EGAS cut its supply to cement producers by a further 61%.

This relatively rapid turn around in fortunes has been highlighted by two announcements from the industry this week, both from the Italcementi subsidiary Suez Cement. Firstly, Suez updated the industry on its coal conversion project at its Kattameya plant. Both the timescale (completion by September 2015) and the price tag (US$23m) demonstrate the scale of the upset caused by the strangling of the gas supply. The cost implications of this investment and similar investments at three other Suez Cement plants are significant.

Secondly, Suez has announced that ItalGen (another Italcementi subsidiary) has secured a loan to construct a 200MW wind farm at Gabel El Zeit, near Hurghada, to supply its production sites with electricity. With a future target to produce 400MW (40% of Suez's electrical energy needs), this project (mooted since 2008) is a huge departure from established electrical energy sources in Egypt. It is an even larger project, estimated at US$220m. Assuming a ~US$25m price-tag for each of the four coal conversion projects, this brings Italcementi's total current Egypt 'energy stability spend' to a whopping US$320m. It is betting that the oil price trend is not going to reverse any time soon. As prices continue to rise it will be interesting to see what other solutions Egpytian cement producers come up with. The conversion of plants to take alternative or waste-derived fuels and the use of solar installations for plant electrical needs are other ways forward.

All the while, it is important to remember that Suez's projects (and those of other producers) will not be ready for several months at least. It is also important to remember that the same cement producers that are 'suffering' now have enjoyed the subsidies for many years. This makes casualties as the producers adjust to the new market realities a distinct possibility.

South African authorities have started a new investigation into imports of cement from Pakistan. This time the inquiry will examine trade dumping allegations made by local producers including Afrisam, Lafarge, NPC Cimpor and PPC.

The application made by the cement producers provided evidence that the difference between the price of cement (the dumping margin) in Pakistan and for imports from Pakistan in 2013 was 48%. Or, in other words, the price of Pakistan cement imported to South Africa was nearly half that of what is was being sold for in the country that it was actually produced in.

The data submitted to the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa comes from a report by Genesis Analytics on Pakistan cement prices in 2013 and tax information from the South African Revenue Service. Neither source is readily available for more detailed analysis here but data released by XA International Trade Advisors suggests that cement imports from Pakistan rose to 1.1Mt/yr in 2013 and at a value of US$59m. Roughly, this gives a price of US$55/t. This compares to an average price of US$90/t, from the All Pakistan Manufacturers' Association for the first nine months of the 2012 – 2013 Pakistani fiscal year, giving a dumping margin similar to the allegation by the South African cement producers.

Separate industry sources quoted by the Pakistan media on the story reported that the country supplies 1.5 - 1.6Mt/yr of cement to South Africa, its biggest export market, receiving a revenue of US$125m. Although this suggests a dumping margin lower than the one presented to the authorities it is still high.

Other information of note in the investigation notification is that the Pakistan cement imports are only competing heavily with the local bagged cement market in the Southern African Customs Union, which also includes neighbouring Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland. The notification discounts bulk cement imports from Pakistan as being 'prohibitively' expensive suggesting that the Pakistan cement producers have no import infrastructure in southern Africa or that something else is stopping them. For example, the country's market leader for production, Lucky Cement, has export facilities in Karachi with silos and automatic ship loaders. Yet it's only 'brick-and-mortar' presence overseas are projects building an integrated plant in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and a grinding plant in Iraq.

It may also be worth considering that South African industry newcomer Sephaku Cement hasn't joined the dumping allegation. The Dangote subsidiary was set to start producing clinker in late August 2014. This is out of character considering how prominent the Nigerian-based cement producer has been in campaigning against imports to its home nation. However, the Aganang plant in Lichtenburg, North West Province is over 700km from the coast and presumably safe from foreign imports at present.

One final question occurs. How are Pakistan cement producers able to dump bagged cement on the South African market at prices lower than what they are selling it for at home? If individual producers sold their excess at home at a lower price they could potentially undercut their competitors and make a profit. There are many barriers, from input costs to industry structural issues and other reasons that may be preventing this. However, if the South African cement producers succeed in their latest attempt to block imports from Pakistan it may add more impetus to remove such barriers.

Of the five African cement news stories in this edition of Global Cement Weekly, three concern the actions of Nigerian cement giant Dangote Cement. This week it has announced a new captive power plant in Nigeria and the fact that Sephaku Cement, which is owned by Dangote to the tune of 64%, is now in a position to produce cement from its Aganang plant in South Africa. These two items are fairly typical of the type of announcement that Dangote makes in the African market, and the high frequency with which it makes them. It is the third story, of course, which is unusual.

We have heard, for a couple of years now, that Dangote has designs on becoming a pan-African cement giant. Certainly it is the pre-eminent producer in west Africa, with its influence rapidly spreading to the east, north west and south of this vast continent. Few others, (but perhaps South Africa's PPC), can claim to have such influence and, unopposed, there seems no limit to Dangote's ambitions.

This week we heard just how bold those ambitions are. For the first time Africa's No. 1 cement producer has said that it wants to break out of Africa and enter new markets. No longer satisfied with operating at home, a company release has identified the Middle East and Latin America as potential hunting grounds, either for new capacity or acquisitions. The proposed list of LafargeHolcim cast-offs, which includes few assets in either region (LINK), will also have received significant attention in the Dangote boardroom.

The selection of the Middle East and Latin America, however, is not accidental. The Middle East is a high growth area and provides a platform for possible 'pincer-movement' expansion into more impenetrable markets in central Africa like Chad and (South) Sudan. The Middle East also means proximity to India. Dangote may also want to dampen the influence that Indian, Pakistani and Iranian exports have in the region. Potential tie-ups with Dangote's growing operations in east Africa are clear.

The selection of Latin America, on the face of it at least, is less obvious. There are numerous strong and growing local and regional producers. Not least of these is Colombia's Cementos Argos, which has increased its influence in the USA through strategic acquisitions. There are also numerous domestic large Brazilian producers but Dangote may feel like there is room for more to joint the party. Cade, the Brazilian competition authority, has certainly agreed that competition could be improved in Brazil following its recent investigations. Could Brazil be a prime target?

Wherever Dangote decides to play its first non-African card, it will be a major step for the company and African cement producers. How long until we see the first African-owned cement plant on another continent?

The comic book series 'Watchmen' takes its title from the Latin phrase 'Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?' which is translated as 'Who watches the watchmen?' Commonly used today to warn against government, police and judicial corruption, the saying might also apply to those groups who watch big industry such as the Atlas of Environmental Justice.

This initiative is an online database compiled by the Environmental Justice Organisations, Liabilities and Trade (EJOLT) to map environmental conflicts around the world. It's a great tool, it is professionally presented and the project is backed by the European Commission. EJOLT's goals are to give those fighting for environmental justice a voice and to gather data to allow policy change.

As ever the problem with any form of user-content database is who vets the submissions and how much of 'reality' does the data actually represent compared to a more curated project. The mass use of Wikipedia shows that these issues can be overcome to some extent, while user-submitted online hotel and restaurant reviews often suggest otherwise.

All three conflicts registered in the EJ Atlas in southern England, where the Global Cement office is based, offer incomplete or misleading data. The entry for the third runway expansion at Heathrow airport doesn't present the economic benefits of expanding the airport or what the alternatives are. Rightly, the activists will argue that they have significantly smaller resources compared to the big industrial multinationals to fight their corner. Unfortunately this shows in the EJ Atlas and the user-submitted data approach it uses.

At the time of writing only 15 cases are tagged as cement-related out of a total of 1154. This is far fewer cases than you might expect with no mention, for example, of any of the regular environmental scuffles the cement industry faces in North America. The cases it does list are mainly based in Latin America with other clusters in southern Europe and India. Of these, three have been mislabelled and are not even related to the cement industry. The rest are mainly concerned with pollution due to waste incineration and mineral extraction worries. The waste incineration listings have a certain irony about them considering that these cement plants are almost certainly praising themselves for their reduced carbon emissions!

In the online world big companies can sometimes be at a disadvantage to nimble activist campaigns. Journalists from national media outlets can easily find campaigns with a web or social media presence to provide counterpoint for editorial. A good example is the Stop Titan Action Network that formed to fight Titan America's cement plant in Castle Hayne in North Carolina, US.

If the EJ Atlas accrues more attention and/or carries on past its project deadline of 2015 then the problems with the atlas may be fixed as activists log more cases, industry refutes them and the moderators weigh up the arguments in line with the project's aims of environmental justice. As previous online examples have shown, engagement may be better than ignoring these kind of initiatives.

Regular readers of Global Cement will have become familiar with the tales of doom and gloom coming out of Titan Cement's various markets in recent years. With significant numbers of assets in Greece (economic turmoil), Egypt (political instability) and the USA (massive drop in cement consumption), Titan was hit hard by the economic downturn.

However, reading Titan's 2014 first half report was a nice surprise this week. Titan reported improvement in every single market that it operates in. Rewind by just 12 months, it is hard to imagine this kind of turnaround. The group reported a net profit, albeit just Euro2.9m, but this is a massive improvement on the Euro21.8m loss made in the first half of 2013. It reported its ninth successive quarter of revenue improvement in the second quarter of 2014.

Away from Titan's improved fortunes there have been other good announcements from an increasingly strong-sounding global cement industry. Other troubled multinationals, France's Vicat Group and Italy's Cementir Holding, have announced improved profits and regional producers Semen Indonesia and Tabuk Cement (Malaysia) have posted revenue improvements. There have been announcements of new integrated projects in Russia, Peru, Pakistan, Zambia, and the UK (yes... the UK!). There was also news of a joint Turkish-Ivorian grinding plant project in Ivory Coast.

The exceptions that highlight this recent positive trend were results from Siam Cement and HeidelbergCement. Siam Cement is being buffeted by continued instability in its native Thailand and its net profit was down accordingly. HeidelbergCement, slightly worryingly, followed last week's poor results from Lafarge and Holcim with a lower second-quarter profit. Cement sales, however, were up.

However, it looks like the worst could be behind Titan – and if it's behind Titan, could it be behind everyone else too? As Titan America's new CEO said this week, "Our company has successfully weathered economic storms on both sides of the Atlantic." Let's hope the seas are calm for the time being.