Analysis

On 31 January 2014, the Québec government announced that it would invest US$350m in a new US$1bn, 2.2Mt/yr cement plant and port facility, to be operated by McInnis Cement at Port-Daniel. To say that this has prompted outrage in the industry is an understatement. Rival cement producers, including Lafarge and Ciments Québec have been unanimous in condemning the funding, which they see as an unjustified affront to fair competition in the province's cement industry. There was an angry response on the Global Cement LinkedIn Group, with dissatisfaction on a number of levels.

Firstly, established manufacturers highlight that the Québec cement market is in a slump, with 100-150 members of Métallos, the United Steelworkers union, currently on rolling temporary furloughs at any one time. There is over-capacity as it is. How will another cement plant help this situation? One contributor to the Global Cement LinkedIn Group said that the funding was like, "Taking the money I pay as taxes to break my legs." Another said, "Imagine our tax dollars heavily subsidising our direct competitor - totally unacceptable!"

Secondly, the government will have a direct interest in the cement industry, diverting public funds to a sector that (in the West) is traditionally left to its own devices. What does the government have to gain from this move? Well, there are suggestions that the awarding of future government cement and concrete contracts can no longer be fair due to the rather obvious conflict of interest. Could the government effectively award contracts to itself? Arguments from the government and McInnis that its distribution will be outside the areas served by the other plants don't seem to wash with the established producers.

Thirdly, there are fingers pointed at the Gaspasia paper mill project, a failed government-funded installation that was not established in the 1990s at a cost to the taxpayer of US$300m. It is unlikely that any of the parties involved would like to see a repeat at Port-Daniel.

Finally, the Canadian government appears to have turned its back on its own 'Wood First' policy, signed in April 2013, which stated that wood should be preferred in construction over cement and steel due to environmental concerns over embodied CO2. At the time Canadian cement manufacturers were at pains to point out that cement and concrete constructions were actually sustainable in comparison to many other building materials, especially with repect to long-term use and minimisation of energy consumed during a building's lifespan. At worst this seems to be a government U-turn but it could yet get more ugly. Now, with funding for new cement capacity, Québec appears to have 'listened' to the cement producers. How long before some cynics point to this change as evidence that the government wanted McInnis Cement to happen all along?

Whether a gross miscalculation or a deliberate ploy by the government, the McInnis Cement saga will not be going away. Ciments Québec and Lafarge will line up to fight the decision and, in litigation-heavy North America, this story could run and run.

Two stories from the US have drawn our attention this week, even with a US$1.3bn cartel fine in Brazil, more new business in Africa, the possible closure of CBR's white cement plant in Belgium and strange metrological goings-on in India also in the headlines.

Firstly, it was announced that Colombia's major cement producer Cementos Argos has agreed to acquire Vulcan Materials' building material assets in Florida. Argos, active in the US since June 2011 when it acquired its Harleyville and Roberta plants from Lafarge, will more than double its capacity in the country from 2.7Mt/yr to 6.2Mt/yr and go from a small player to a significant force in the western US.

Argos may have moved at just the right time. Despite suffering disproportionately in what is often termed the 'Great Recession' in the US, Florida's cement market is fundamentally solid, with significant residential construction and a good commercial construction baseline. If the PCA's expectations that the US will consume 80Mt/yr of cement in 2014 and a release of that much talked-about 'pent-up demand' are realised, Argos could be in a position to make good sales.

Indeed, Argos' move takes on even more significance in the light of the second US story from this week, which sees Texas Industries (TXI) taken over by Martin Marietta. The acquisition, which comes on the back of a failed bid by Martin Marietta for Vulcan Materials in 2012, also makes perfect sense for the company. Indeed, Martin Marietta's chief executive, C Howard Nye, said, "We like the Texas market a lot."

And well they should. Developments around the Eagle Ford shale gas reserves in the centre of Texas have led to a building boom in terms of both new constructions and oil well cement. Despite this, TXI announced a loss of US$17.6m in the quarter to 30 September 2013, although it saw higher sales. It blamed interest repayments. There are obviously clear gains for Martin Marietta in buying TXI, but it had better have a plan to sort out TXI's finances.

For all the talk of major restructuring in China , and mergers and acquisitions in India, it is the US cement industry that is showing the most movement so far in 2014. Could this be the year when things finally look up?

Following a two-year investigation, the UK Competition Commission (CC) has concluded that the UK needs a new cement producer to further encourage competition. Lafarge Tarmac will be required to sell one of its five cement plants. Additionally the CC wants the HeidelbergCement subsidiary Hanson to sell one of its slag grinding plants to increase competition in the supply chain for ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBS).

The CC's competition investigation estimated that UK customers were cost at least Euro55m/yr between 2007 and 2012 due to high cement and GGBS prices, brought about by a lack of competition. According to Mineral Products Association (MPA) cement sales data, over the same period cement sales in the UK fell from 12Mt in 2007 to 8Mt in 2012.

Although it seems strange that the CC has acted again to support competition in the UK (just one year afterthe Lafarge Tarmac merger) the CC defended its actions in a letter to the December 2013 issue of Global Cement Magazine. According to Rory Taylor, the Lafarge Tarmac merger inquiry could only maintain pre-existing levels of competition, while the investigation's remit was to increase competition if it found a problem.

Explaining their administrative procedures provided little comfort for Lafarge Tarmac, which complained about the ruling. "Its analysis of industry profitability, which is central to its conclusion of Adverse Effect on Competition, is flawed, grossly overestimating the returns made. It has also failed to take into account the new business environment that has been established by our divestments - only 12 months ago - to create a new competitor (Hope Construction Materials), and the entry of new importers into the market."

One such importer, Quinn Cement, popped up this week with news that it is to invest Euro16m in its cement plant at Cavan, Ireland. It has hopes to capture 1% of the mainland British market, making it up to Euro9.6m in the process. Although the CC doesn't think that imports significantly effect cement prices in the UK, those Irish hopes have likely been boosted following the UK CC's decision. Whether it is in the interest of UK consumers remains to be seen. One measure of the CC's activity this time might be the time that passes before its next intervention in the cement industry.

Returning briefly to last week's column (MINT cement focus: Indonesia, GCW133), Holcim Indonesia has reported that its sales fell by 2% in 2013. Growth in the cement industry in Indonesia is by no means assured. Holcim will publish its full annual results for 2013 on 26 February 2014.

Thank you to everyone who commented on the column in last week's Global Cement Weekly (GCW132, MINTed cement industries). Amongst the more interesting thoughts was that in a large cement producing country like the US, there are regional areas of focus. So, returning to neologisms, FACT might refer to, say, Florida, Alabama, California and Texas, four southern states with the highest cement production capacities in the union. Similar regional breakdowns could be applied to countries such as China, India or Brazil.

Following last week's look at the MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) economies in the context of cement we now take a quick recap on what has been happening in the 'I' of the MINT, Indonesia.

Indonesia has a population of 238m, a cement production capacity of 47Mt and a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US$1.29tr. Both its cement consumption per capita and GDP per capita are low by international standards suggesting that it has considerable growth potential for its cement industry as its wider economy grows.

Indonesia's biggest cement producer, the state owned Semen Indonesia (formerly Semen Gresik) has reported to local media that its unaudited net profit rose by 14% year-on-year in 2013 to US$410m. Its revenue rose by 12% to US$1.8bn. Its new 1.5Mt/yr cement plant in Tuban, East Java has been reported as being operational, bringing Semen Indonesia's cement production capacity up to 31.8Mt/yr in 2014.

The country's second biggest cement producer, Indocement, has not reported any figures for 2013 as a whole yet. However parent company HeidelbergCement did note that the Indonesian economy had slowed down as a result of falling commodity prices. Cement and clinker sales including exports rose by 0.6% in the first nine months of 2013. Around mid-2013 local media reported that Indocement was losing market share in Indonesia.

Holcim Indonesia has also not revealed its financial situation in 2013. However, like Indocement, Holcim Indonesia reported with its third quarter results that economic growth had 'temporarily' flattened in the country. Operating results had not improved on levels in 2012.

Overall domestic cement sales rose by 5.8% year-on-year to 47Mt for the first 10 months of 2013 according to data from the Indonesian Cement Association. Previous annual rises in cement production and cement consumption had started to slow in 2012.

Growth in the Indonesian cement industry is also having an effect on the larger geographical region. Australian cement producer Boral suspended clinker production at its Waurn Ponds plant in late 2012 due to cheaper imports from countries such as Indonesia. New Zealand followed suit in mid-2013 when Holcim announced plans to build cement import terminals instead of building a new cement plant at Weston.

In summary it seems likely that the cement market in Indonesia slowed down in the first half of 2013 but it still appears to be generating growth none-the-less, true to the MINT pattern. Market analysts from Kim Eng agree, pinning issues with domestic cement consumption in 2013 on capacity bottlenecks and over-crowded ports. Growth in the cement markets for the MINT countries may seem likely but in the case of Indonesia it cannot be assumed.

There was a great quote on BBC News from Nigerian cement mogul Aliko Dangote to start 2014 with: "Can you imagine, can you believe, that [Nigeria] has been growing at 7%/yr with no power, with zero power? It's a joke."

In the article Dangote is describing economic growth in Nigeria and the BBC points out that 170 million people in Nigeria use the same amount of power as 1.5 million people do in the UK. The author then goes on to predict that Nigeria could grow at a rate of 10 – 12%, by just solving power infrastructure in the country.

For the start of 2014 the British state broadcaster has been running a radio series on the so-called MINT economies. The term refers to the growing economies of Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey and is being used as a new buzzword in the same fashion as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) to describe broadly similar growing economies outside the traditional western bloc dominated by the G7.

Comparing the cement industries in the MINT countries raises some discrepancies between the desires of Western economists and the local cement industries. Mexico has a population of 118m, a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US$1.85tr and a cement production capacity of 50Mt/yr. Indonesia has a population of 238m, a GDP of US$1.29tr and a cement production capacity of 47Mt/yr. Nigeria has a population of 175m, a GDP of US$479bn and a cement production capacity of 28Mt/yr. Turkey has a population of 74m, a GDP of US$1.17tr and a cement production capacity of 82Mt/yr.

Mexico and Turkey have the lower populations in the MINT group, the highest (and most similar) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita at US$15,000 and are the more developed cement industries in the group with the higher cement production capacities per capita. All of the MINT countries have infrastructural issues that will require large amounts of cement in the coming years.

Highlighting Dangote's concerns we cover a cement industry news story this week from Nepal, where Dangote is considering potential locations for a cement plant. Part of the publicly reported meeting between Dangote and the Nepalese government concerned power requirements for the project. Dangote intends to generate 30MW itself and has asked Nepal to provide 30MW. From the CEO downwards the cement producer clearly understands the problems of underdeveloped infrastructure. This is not surprising given his comments above!

That MINT economies are growing powers will not surprise the cement industry. In this week's Global Cement Weekly, in addition to the Dangote story, we feature two news stories focusing on direct industry capital investment in Indonesia. Looking more widely nearly half the stories are from BRIC or MINT countries.

With this in mind Global Cement has developed its own buzzword for the cement industry in 2014: the VISA group. This group includes Vietnam, Italy, Spain and Australia, countries that have all had problems with their cement industries in 2013 such as a production overcapacity or financial losses. If readers have any nicknames of their own for groups of cement producing nations let us know at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..