Analysis

The single most notable observation regarding the last seven days is that the cement industry news has been overwhelmingly positive. After many years of consolidations, buy-outs and financial losses, it seems the global cement industry is finally turning itself around, with reports citing numerous expansion projects and growing cement demand in most regions.

The Indian government is taking control of its coal shortage problem with the appointment of a new Inter-Ministerial Task Force (IMTF) to rationalise existing coal resources. India's Ultratech Cement reported a 12% increase in cement sales in the April - June 2014 period, while both Shree Cement and Maha Cement are investing heavily to increase production capacity for the Indian and nearby Sri Lankan markets. In Myanmar, Thailand's Siam Cement Group (SCG) plans to construct a new 1.8Mt/yr capacity cement plant, while China's Guangdong Province has cut another 3.23Mt/yr of cement production capacity to meet overcapacity issues and reduce harmful emissions.

Signs also point to an anticipated upswing in cement demand in Europe. The UK's Hope Construction Materials has invested in 36 new Mercedes-Benz trucks for cement dispatch, while in Croatia, Holcim has predicted a 15% revenue increase in 2015, having finally completed consolidation of its unprofitable operations. Eurocement plans to construct a new 2.4Mt/yr capacity cement plant at the site of its Akhangarancement plant in Uzbekistan, although the existing plant is currently under scrutiny by the State Competition Committee and the subject of a nationalisation attempt by the Uzbek authorities.

In the US, Eagle Materials has reported a 4% increase in cement sales volumes in the April – June 2014 period, while Holcim has broken ground on its Hagerstown, Maryland cement plant modernisation project. Similarly, cement demand in Latin and South America continues to grow. Cemex Latam Holdings reported a 6% year-on-year increase in cement sales for the first half of 2014, while Mexico's Cemex reported that net sales grew by 4% year-on-year during the second quarter of 2014. Cemento Andino is building a new line that will triple the cement production capacity of its Trujillo plant in Venezuela to 600,000t/yr.

In Africa, Tanga Cement Company Limited (TCCL) plans to increase its cement production capacity, having signed an agreement to double its power supply to 40MW. Tunisia's Carthage Cement has reported a 419% increase in turnover for the first six months of 2014, while in Egypt, Suez Cement reported a 1% increase in cement demand. Lafarge's Nigerian subsidiary, Ashaka Cement, is fast-tracking the expansion of its Gombe State plant to meet demand, while the Standards Organisation of Nigeria (SON) is forging ahead to improve cement standards and consumer confidence. ARM Cement's revenues grew by 16% for the first half of 2014, including a 10% increase in Kenya and a 33% increase in Tanzania.

Finally, Lafarge and Holcim are moving forward with their mega-merger, officially notifying various competition authorities around the world. While the global cement industry will undergo some major changes as a result, the upheaval could prove positive for those players willing to seize the day.

An update on the algae bioreactor project at Votorantim's St Marys cement plant in Canada this week provides a good opportunity to review this particular aspect of carbon sequestration. The project, run with Pond Biofuels, went live in 2009. It has now reached its third generation bioreactor at the site.

Little or no performance data has been released generally so we have no way at present of knowing how viable the process is commercially. Cement backers, Brazilian firm Votorantim, are certainly excited by the project even if only for the sustainability kudos it gives them. Director Edvaldo Araújo Rabello presented the project as one of the company's highlights at a keynote presentation at the 6°CBC Congresso do Cimento held in São Paulo, Brazil in May 2014.

One hurdle for the St Marys pilot is the relative lack of light, a required input for algae photosynthesis, even in Canada's most southerly state. Pond Biofuels have reportedly dodged this by using continuously flashing LEDs to simulate artificially short days that encourage growth. On paper or powerpoint a process that could potentially cut even a proportion of CO₂ emissions from a cement plant sounds enticing. Yet if it creates more CO₂ than it saves, through electricity requirements for example, than it isn't worth using.

This is probably what shelved Lafarge's Carbon Capture and Transformation project. It ran a pilot project at its Val d'Azergues plant in France in 2009 with Salata GmbH. The pilot worked but the researchers decided that new advances in processes and biotechnology were required to make the economic and environmental results better. Other companies have also had problems. Holcim started its Aurantia – GreenFuel project in late 2007 at its Jerez cement plant in Spain, backing it with an investment US$92m. This project stalled when GreenFuel shut in 2009 citing lack of funding as the recession hit.

ACC in India also reportedly started its own algae project in 2007, mentioning it in its sustainability report, but nothing more has been reported since. Since this burst of interest InterCement has invested US$2.5m towards algae research in 2013 working with the Federal University of São Carlos, the Federal University of Santa Maria and Algae Biotecnologia.

Algae-based carbon projects for cement plants may remain stuck in the research stage but the market for biofuels continues to grow. For example, this week we report that Ohorongo Cement in Namibia plans to increase its use of blackthorn as a biofuel to use as an alternative fuel in co-processing. The prospects of turning waste CO₂ into a valuable commodity remains uncertain, but the rewards are great. Let's wait and see what St Marys can do.

This week saw Lafarge and Holcim announce a list of proposed asset divestments following months of research by a Divestment Committee. The mass divestment is planned so that competition authorities around the world can approve the proposed Euro40bn merger of equals to produce LafargeHolcim. When the merger was initially proposed on 7 April 2014, Lafarge and Holcim estimated that some Euro5bn of asset disposals would be necessary and they are already well on their way.

Europe is facing the brunt of asset divestments, as this is where the companies have the largest market overlap. Holcim plans to sell all of its assets in Hungary and Serbia, while Lafarge will sell all of its assets in Germany, Romania and the UK (with one possible cement plant exception). In Austria, Lafarge has opted to divest its Mannersdorf cement plant, while in France it would sell its Reunion Island assets (excluding its shareholding in Ciments de Bourbon). Holcim plans to sell all of its assets in France except for its Altkirch cement plant and aggregates and ready-mix sites in the Alsace Region.

Elsewhere in the world, Holcim plans to sell all of its assets in Canada and Mauritius. In the Philippines the companies plan to combine the operations of Lafarge Republic Inc and Holcim Philippines Inc and to divest Lafarge's Bulacan, Norzagaray and Iligan plants. In Brazil, where Lafarge and Holcim both have a significant presence, the companies plan to announce their intentions after collaboration with CADE, the country's competition authority. There is little market overlap in most of Asia and the Middle East: Lafarge's assets in Malaysia and Syria complement Holcim's strong presence in India and Indonesia.

So far, Lafarge has consolidated its African operations by establishing Lafarge Africa and selling its assets in Ecuador. Holcim has been granted approval from the European Competition Commission to purchase Cemex West in Germany and, most recently, Lafarge has announced that it intends to buy out its joint venture partner, Anglo American, from Lafarge Tarmac in order to sell the entire business.

While the asset divestment list shows good will to global competition authorities, there remains no guarantee that Lafarge and Holcim will not need to divest even more assets. However, by nominating such a large number of divestments in the first instance, the companies have shown willing to cooperate with anti-monopoly measures, potentially easing the path of the LafargeHolcim mega-merger.

A group of news stories from Central Asia and Azerbaijan this week present a good opportunity to look at the cement industry in this part of the world.

Uzbekistan

Eurocement has announced that it plans to build a 2.4Mt/yr cement plant near to Tashkent. Chinese contractors have been signed for the work in line with the Russia-based cement producer's other plant builds in 2014. Eurocement also operate a subsidiary in the country, the 1.6Mt/yr Akhangarancement cement plant, that reported a criminal investigation and financial audit following various misdemeanours in April 2014.

Also in April 2014 the Almalyk Mining-Metallurgical Combine (AMMC) proposed building a 1.5Mt/yr cement plant in the south of the country and then commissioning of a white cement plant in the central Jizzakh Province. Both the Eurocement and AMMC projects show that organisations are investing in the local market of the region's most populous country at around 30m.

Turkmenistan

In neighbouring Turkmenistan the TurkmenCement Production Association has issued a tender this week for the construction of a 1Mt/yr clinker plant in the central-south of the country in the Baharly District of the Akhal Region. If realised, the new plant will raise Turkemistan's cement production capacity to 4Mt/yr. Currently the country has three state-operated plants. The most recent, the 1.4Mt/yr Garlyk plant, was commissioned in February 2013.

Kazakhstan

An investor has stepped forward to finance the completion of the delayed Khantau cement plant in Zhambyl region in southern Kazakhstan. The 0.5Mt/yr plant was originally started in 2007 before being mothballed part-way through construction.

The reignition of this project follows a couple of stories from Kazakhstan including a report on testing at the HeidelbergCement Caspi cement plant in Mangistau region and the start of operation on Line 5 of Steppe Cement's Karaganda Cement. Kazakhstan has more western international cement producers, unlike the generally state-run companies in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. HeidelbergCement will join plants run by Italcementi and Vicat.

Azerbaijan

Finally, on the other side of the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijani local media has reported that cement production for the first half of 2014 has risen by 40% year-on-year to 1.1Mt. Following the opening of the Gazakh cement plant in mid-2013 the country has three cement plants with a combined cement production capacity of nearly 5Mt/yr.

Bad news for both cement workers and local clinker production in Australia and New Zealand this week with the announcement of job cuts and planned closures of clinker plants. Holcim New Zealand has confirmed that around 120 jobs will go when its Westport cement plant closes in 2016 along with the rationalisation of a few management jobs when the company integrates its Australian and New Zealand businesses. Meanwhile, Boral announced that it will cut 28 jobs from its Maldon Cement plant in Australia when it ceases clinker production at the end of 2014.

With these planned closures cement production capacity in the antipodes will shrink by just over 1.5Mt/yr to around 7.5Mt/yr, a reduction of over 15% Alongside the drop in native cement production players are re-focusing on an import market.

The trend is highlighted by the fact that Boral's Maldon site will retain its grinding mill. Earlier in June 2014 it was reported that Vue Australia is planning to convert a brownfield site on Kooragang Island, New South Wales into a cement storage and transfer plant. In February 2014 Cockburn Cement cut 44 jobs at its Munster cement plant as it started to restructure its operation for grinding using imported clinker. Also in February 2014 Cement Australia, the joint-owned company between Holcim and HeidelbergCement, had a US$17m expansion of its cement loading and storage facility for processing at Osborne approved by local authorities.

Following its restructuring in 2013, which has seen clinker production cease at Waurn Ponds and soon to cease at Maldon, Boral reported that its cement revenues grew in its 2012 – 2013 financial year. This is likely to continue when the 2013 – 2014 year is reported in August 2014. Likewise, Adelaide Brighton reported growing revenues in 2013. Cement Australia reported growing cement sales year-on-year in the first quarter of 2014 following reduced sales in 2013.

All in all the local cement industry in Australia and New Zealand has taken quite a knock in recent years. Reasons for this have included a poor recovery for the local building materials market, high-energy costs, the Carbon Tax in Australia, competition concerns and the spectre of cheap clinker imports from East Asia undercutting everything. However the return to revenue and then profit suggest that the worst of the job cuts and clinker production shrinkage is over.

In this business environment, revelations such as a China Resources spending upwards of US$300,000 on golf are unlikely to garner sympathy for any measures that appear to reduce international competiveness for Australian industry. The current Australian government led by Tony Abbott is set to make good on its promise to repeal the Carbon Tax from July 2014. The environmental effects will be unclear given that the tax may have cut emissions from participating companies by 7%, falling from 342Mt in 2011 – 2012 to 321Mt in 2012 – 2013, according to the Investor Group on Climate Change. As is usual with localised carbon taxation or legislation, whether global emissions fell during this period or whether emissions grew in looser jurisdictions to compensate is hard to calculate. The trend towards clinker imports suggests that there may be a significant contribution from the latter.