Analysis

For the last issue of Global Cement Weekly before the Christmas and New Year break we're following our tradition of reviewing some of the major industry news stories of the year. Remember this is just one view of the year's events. If you think we've missed anything important let us know via LinkedIn, Twitter or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Lafarge and Holcim merger
The year has been dominated by one story: the merger of the two largest European-based cement producers, Lafarge and Holcim. The implications are massive. At a stroke the new company can dispose of less profitable units, clear debts and benefit from new mega-economies of scale. As Europe emerges from the recession, LafargeHolcim will be ready. Worldwide it is a rebuff to the consolidating Chinese cement producers who are poised, if they wish, to emerge from China and dominate international markets. The process has appeared surprisingly smooth so far with considerable forward planning. This week the European Commission has approved the proposed merger.

Lafarge CEO Bruno Lafont described the deal as 'a merger of equals'. What he didn't say is that the merger will leave LafargeHolcim with no equal. However, one question remains. Once the merger is complete will the new company be profitable?

China heads abroad
State planners in Hebei Province revealed plans to move excess cement production capacity outside of China in their usual sparse style. The quiet tone of the announcement failed to match its intentions to move 30Mt of capacity abroad by 2023. It is the next step after becoming the world's biggest cement producer, capturing swathes of the equipment market and consolidating its many local producers. How Chinese cement producers will fare in the wider global market remains to be seen. Yet while its economy remains strong the gobbling up of European utilities by Chinese companies suggests that, if all else fails, money talks.

Coal for India
If you can't fire-up your kiln you can't make clinker. With Indian cement producers reporting falling profits in 2014 the squabbling over coal allocation in the country summed up some of the input cost and infrastructure problems facing the country's cement industry. The coal blocks are due to be auctioned off from January 2015. Meanwhile analysts predict that Indian cement demand is unlikely to grow until 2016.

Sub-Saharan scares and skirmishes
The creation of Lafarge Africa means that three producers are now in a skirmish in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lafarge, Dangote and PPC. All three companies are present in multiple countries and expanding fast. This week, for example, PPC announced proposed merger plans with AfriSam. Given the low cement consumption per capita in this region the benefits of getting in early are immense. Unfortunately, there are many speed bumps along this road to development. One is the on-going Ebola epidemic. Left unchecked it could cause untold economic damage.

ASEAN set to open up
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is set to drop import tariffs in 2015 as it establishes a common market. Already in preparation cement producers have started to change their strategies, thinking regionally instead of nationally. Holcim Philippines, for example, announced in February 2014 that it was considering delaying building a new plant as it analysed the situation. The region, including high-growth countries like Indonesia and Thailand, could see its cement industry go into overdrive. However, the benefits may not be uniform as countries like the Philippines may lose out.

The US, fracking and falling oil prices
Of the western economies recovering from the 2007 recession, the US cement industry has rebounded the fastest, due in part to fracking which has brought down the cost of energy. The Brent Crude price hit a low of US$60 per barrel this week and this has consequences for everybody in the cement industry as fuel procurement strategies adapt.

For starters, cement producers gain a fuel bill cut as the cost of fuels fall. Producers in Egypt who have been frenziedly converting kilns from gas to coal may suddenly find their margins improve. Low energy prices also take away financial motivation to co-process alternative fuels in cement kilns. Finally, what of the giant infrastructure projects in Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) like Saudi Arabia? Take away the petrodollars propping up these builds and cement demand may evaporate.

For more a more detailed look at trends in the cement industry check out the Global Cement Top 100 Report.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 7 January 2015. Enjoy the festive break!

This week we heard news of two potential bidders for Lafarge and Holcim divestments. However, for a change it was where they will not be bidding that was of interest: Brazil. India's UltraTech Cement and Colombia's Cementos Argos now seem to have no interest in developing their positions in South America's largest cement market, having both previously stated their interest.

The Brazilian assets to be sold are three integrated cement plants and two grinding plants that share a capacity of 3.6Mt/yr (as well as a one ready-mix plant). Cementos Argos came out and said that it would not be bidding. UltraTech's position is more of a rumour, given by 'a source close to the company' that was not revealed by local media. However, both stories suggest that Brazil is currently not a good place for cement producers to buy up assets.

The reasons for these decisions are related to the state of the Brazilian economy, which has seen sub 2% growth in the last 11 quarters. The economy actually contracted by 0.9% in the second quarter of 2014 and by 0.25% in the third quarter of 2014. A 0.2% rise in the fourth quarter will be negated by a fall of 0.28% in the first quarter of 2015. Over the course of 2015 the IMF forecasts growth of 1.4%.

Although Brazilian cement production has risen from around 40Mt/yr in 2006 to around 70Mt/yr in 2013, it has been growing by lower and lower amounts each year. In 2013, it rose by 1.5% year-on-year, down from a 6.7% rise in 2012, an 8.3% rise in 2011 and a near 16% rise in 2010. Taken along with the IMF's GDP growth forecast, there is a genuine chance that Brazilian cement sales could plateau in 2014 or 2015. There will certainly be better places to try to sell cement over the next couple of years, hence the eagerness with which Cementos Argos declared its position.

One country that Cementos Argos has said it's looking at Lafarge and Holcim assets in is Mexico. Its economy is anticipated to grow by 3.5% in 2015, more than twice as quickly as Brazil and far more than the Americas as a whole (2.2%). Another anticipated strong performer in 2015 will be the US (3.1%), where Cementos Argos acquired assets in 2013. This week also saw the news that the Portland Cement Association's 8.1% cement consumption forecast for 2014 will be met.

Taking this all together, it appears that economic growth, and hence cement demand growth, will return to North America in earnest in 2015. Meanwhile South America's largest market is starting to lag behind. How will the rest of the two continents fare in 2015 and beyond?

China has admitted once again that its cement industry is plagued by over-capacity. State news agency Xinhua came clean this week as it reported that 103 production lines have been closed for the winter months.

The principal reason given for the winter shutdown was prevention of air pollution with resolution of overcapacity presented as a handy secondary. With long term plans in place to reduce overcapacity through industry mergers, demolitions and bans on new plants this is one more offshoot from the very public problems that smog and industrial pollution has given the Chinese government.

The policy follows a similar shutdown in China's far-western state of Xinjian that has been implemented since 1 November 2014. Xinjian is away from China's main cement production heartland in the south and east of the country. The idea here is to stagger winter production from cement kilns that use coal to avoid flue gas emissions rising when coal consumption for heating also rises. Since cement consumption by the construction industry is lower in the winter, a stoppage at this time of year should affect the cement producers less. Proposals have also been made to include Inner Mongolia and Hebei into the scheme.

The three provinces in question now - Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin – represent 80Mt/yr or 6% of China's total cement production capacity from 28 cement plants, according to the Global Cement Directory 2014. This is broadly in line with the proportion of national population the three provinces hold.

Back in 2012 the National Development and Reform Commission suggested that national cement capacity utilisation was 69%. Local media in China have been reporting that currently Xinjian uses 60%. Western commentators reckon that China uses only 50% of the cement industry's total production capacity. By contrast India, the world's second biggest cement producer after China, has been lamenting this year that capacity utilisation had fallen below 70%. Worldwide, excluding China, capacity utilisation rates have been estimated to be just below 70% in 2014.

Plummeting particulate matter counts are great for Beijing's cyclists and their continued goodwill towards the government. However, the implications are bad for the producers who are affected and the associated industries. As one Chinese equipment manufacturer commented on Global Cement's LinkedIn Group, "...many small manufacturers of cement plants in China will go bankrupt." Unfortunately this too is also in line with the country's strategy to reign in its cement industry through industry consolidation. It may yet turn out sunny for the state planners... once the smog clears.

A couple of news stories this week from Myanmar present an opportunity to look at the country. Lafarge has opened a cement repacking plant in the Thilawa special economic zone (SEZ). Upcountry meanwhile, Anhui Conch has had a joint venture approved by the government for an upgrade to an existing cement plant in Kyaukse.

Towards the end of 2013 the government announced that 13 companies were to establish joint ventures with the local state-owned cement plants. In addition the Myanmar Investment Commission had approved the construction of nine new cement plants with an aim of a target cement production capacity of 10.53Mt/yr. Following this, Siam Cement Group's on-going investment in a 1.8Mt/yr plant is due for completion in 2016. Semen Indonesia have been pushing for a joint venture since mid-2014 although it was still trying to agree terms in September 2014, according to local media. Italcementi's chief executive Carlo Pesenti also expressed his company's interest in setting up a joint venture in early 2014.

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) investment bank CIMB placed cement demand in Myanmar at 4Mt in 2012 and a local cement production capacity of 3Mt/yr. Cement consumption was placed at 76kg/capita for the country's population of 52.8 million. In contrast, Thai cement engineering supplier LV Technology reported demand of 6Mt in 2012. CIMB recorded Myanmar's capacity utilisation rate at 60%. Cement sales were broken down as 95% by bag and 5% by bulk.

This kind of supply-demand gap excites foreign investors. Neighbouring Thailand has a consumption of 515kg/capita, Myanmar imports cement from Thailand, Indonesia and India and the country's GDP growth rate is currently estimated to be around 8%.

Yet what's notable about Myanmar's industry are the high number of small, low production capacity cement plants. Many of them are wet process plants. Only one plant is reported as being capable of producing over 0.5Mt/yr with the Siam Cement plant project due to significantly bust this record when it is commissioned in 2016. Limited limestone deposits in the country may also make plants larger than 1.5Mt/yr unviable. Fuel is also an issue, with LV Technology advocating a wholesale industry conversion from state-subsidised gas to coal due to power shortages and impending competition issues.

In 2015 Myanmar is set to enact free trade tariffs from its ASEAN membership. Without protection or preparation, its cement plants could face serious consequences from cheaper imports from Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam. The move by the government to encourage joint ventures with foreign partners looks like one way to mitigate this. In a market report in 2013 CIMB described the situation for investors as 'high-growth, high-barrier.' This seems to be an apt description given the experiences of Semen Indonesia.

Startling news from Hebei, China this week. The northerly province intends to move out its excess capacity in heavy industries, including cement, to other countries by 2023. 5Mt of cement production capacity is planned for transfer by 2017 and 30Mt is planned for transfer by 2023. The larger figure is about the same as the cement production capacity of France or Germany!

Hebei isn't the biggest cement-producing province in China but it has received attention as the authorities have cut down on 'out-dated' production capacity. The region was targeted in a programme to cut emissions from heavy industry due to its proximity to Beijing and that city's smog issues.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) set a target of 60Mt/yr in cement production capacity to be cut by 2017. The region was also the site of massive cement plant demolitions in late 2013 and early 2014. 18 cement plants were demolished in December 2013 followed by 17 cement plants in February 2014 alongside the destruction of connected grinding and storage capacity. Overall an incredible 74 cement plants in the area surrounding Shijiazhuang alone were targeted for demolition by March 2014.

Following this massive spate of capacity elimination, the public announcement to actively move abroad marks a stark change to China's general cement industry strategy so far. The country's equipment suppliers like Sinoma have been taking business from European rivals like FLSmidth or KHD for some time now especially in developing markets.

In 2013, FLSmidth reported a cement market order intake of US$575m and KHD reported an order intake of US$216m. In comparison Sinoma's cement equipment and engineering services reported order intake of US$5.59bn. In its annual report for 2013 FLSmidth estimated that the global market for new kiln capacity was 50Mt. At a capacity construction price of US$150/t this suggests that Sinoma took orders for nearly three quarters of the world's required capacity for new cement kilns in 2013. Order intake covers more than just building cement plants, so this quick calculation presents only a rough impression of what's going on.

More recently Chinese cement producers have started building their own cement plants or funding them outside of China. In October 2014 State Development and Investment Corp and Anhui Conch Cement Company announced plans to fund a plant in Indonesia. In September 2014 ground breaking was held for a Chinese-funded plant in Kyrgyzstan. In June 2014, Huaxin Cement invested in Cambodia Cement. This was its second overseas investment following a project in Tajikistan in 2011.

With China's government still attempting to avoid a hard economic landing as its growth slows, moving industrial overcapacity overseas makes sense. International and national players must be worried about the potential scale of this transition. On the plus side, however, those notorious inscrutable Chinese production figures in the cement industry will be far easier to analyse in plants outside of China facing international competition. Today Hebei, tomorrow the world!