Analysis

Dangote Cement let everybody know this week that it is now producing 52.5MPa grade cement in Nigeria. The move was a response to building pressure from professional and civil groups in the country which have reacted in recent months to the high incidence of building collapses in the country. With the 42.5MPa grade looking likely to become the new legal standard, Dangote's adoption of an even higher standard looks like canny marketing.

The background to this tussle lies in the spate of building collapses that have plagued Nigeria in recent years. A widely cited paper in the Global Journal of Researches in Engineering from 2010 reported at least 26 incidents in Nigeria between 1975 to 1995 with 226 fatalities. Later figures from 2004 to 2006 reported at least 10 incidents with 243 fatalities, a significantly higher prevalence than in the earlier period. The paper recommended adopting standards for building materials such as cement among other measures. Since the publication of this paper news reports have been hard to collate. Commentators placed the toll at 15 collapses with 30 fatalities for the first eight months of 2013 alone.

The Standards Organisation of Nigeria (SON) reacted to the latest outcry over building collapses by saying that they were caused by poor application, such as a using the wrong quality of cement for a particular task, not poor standards. According to the SON, 32.5MPa grade cement is recommended for activities such as plastering, flooring, block moulding, culvert making and building simple domestic houses. 42.5MPa grade is designed for the construction of tall buildings, bridges and load bearing columns.

Adopting a national standard of 42.5MPa grade is intended to stop misuse of lower grade cement being used for the wrong applications. One example commentators have mentioned is how to help illiterate builders select the right kind of cement for a given task. Choosing an overall higher standard is one solution to this problem. Education is another.

One fact that has emerged from the debate is that, according to Dangote Chief Executive Officer DVG Edwin, the SON imposed 42.5MPa grade as the minimum for imports before most imports were stopped in late 2012. Edwin used this as an argument for the SON enforcing the same standard for domestic cement production. Anything that can cut the number of building collapses can only be a good thing.

Algeria has been steadily building up cement industry interest over the past few months. In late 2013 Lafarge opened its fourth world research laboratory in Algiers. Then this week South African producer PPC confirmed its intention to enter the local market with a new plant and German construction firm ThyssenKrupp announced an order to build a cement plant for Groupe Industriel des Ciments d'Algérie.

According to United States Geological Survey (USGS) data, Algeria saw its cement production more than double from 9Mt/yr in 2002 to 20Mt/yr in 2011. At present Global Cement Directory 2014 figures places the country's cement production capacity from 21Mt/yr with 30Mt/yr a reasonable estimate for 2017. Throw in similarly rising gross domestic product per capita, US$7500 in 2013, with infrastructure investments of US$286bn planned and Algeria appears to be a promising investment for the cement market.

Lafarge, which holds minority stakes in two cement plants in the country, reported that market demand was high in 2012. Its cement sales rose by 9% year-on-year in 2013. The other major foreign player, ASEC Cement, reported in its 2012 financial report that Algeria consumed 21Mt of cement in 2012 but that it had to import 3Mt that year. ASEC was planning to build a 3.16Mt/yr plant at Djelfa to plug that market gap. Yet news reports in early 2013 reveal that the project was paused due to financial issues at ASEC with the suggestion of a possible downgrade to a 1.5Mt/yr production capacity instead.

The decision by PPC to build in Algeria is the first big project by one of Africa's international sub-Saharan cement producers north of the Sahara. It steps away from PPC's expansion strategy so far of building projects out from South Africa. Hodna in Algeria is a long way from Johannesburg! It will also cause tension between PPC and whoever is supplying imported cement to Algeria, most likely indebted southern European producers. Both PPC and its Nigerian competitor Dangote are used to fighting foreign imports to their core markets. Data from the Algerian customs office show that the value of cement imports to Algeria in 2013 rose by 26% year-on-year to US$395m. That's a market worth fighting for.

There has been an interesting knock-on effect from further economic integration of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) this week. Holcim Philippines may delay the construction of a 2.5Mt/yr cement plant in Bulacan province due to a drop in import tariffs in 2015. Vietnam or Indonesia were named as possible sources of clinker due to their excess capacity.

The ASEAN group comprises 10 countries including Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia. Their respective cement production capacities range from 0.3Mt/yr at a clinker grinding plant in Singapore to Indonesia's integrated cement production capacity of 45Mt/yr. In total the ASEAN countries have a production capacity of around 220Mt/yr for a population of about 600m with national gross domestic products (GDP) per capita ranging from US$900 (Laos) to US$52,000 (Singapore).

One scenario for cement producers in the ASEAN countries is that they might be swamped by exports from places like Vietnam. That country had a production capacity of 73Mt/yr in 2013 with cement sales predicted to rise to 63Mt in 2014. Assuming the government released figures are correct, that leaves at least a 10Mt of cement production-sales gap that could torpedo a neighbouring country's cement industry in the free trade area.

Indonesia, the other potential source of clinker that Holcim Philippines mentioned, has seen construction growth slow and production capacity grow. Holcim reported in its nine-month report in November 2013 that, while national cement sales had risen by 5.3% to 41.6Mt, supply capacity had risen by 9% to 59Mt/yr. Assuming equal sales distribution throughout this suggests a capacity gap of 4Mt.

Some politicians in the region have complained that impending free trade area will create winners and losers. At a recent ASEAN meeting in Yangon, Myanmar a Myanmar planning minister raised the issue of a development gap within the ASEAN region calling for renegotiation for countries like Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos.

Meanwhile both the cement industries in Vietnam and Indonesia have clearly anticipated the implications of the ASEAN Economic Community. The Vietnam National Cement Association expects to remain competitive within the ASEAN region and against Chinese imports after 2015. In Indonesia State Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan stated this week that the cement industry was ready for the ASEAN Economic Community thanks to the government's strategy to consolidate its major cement producers within one company, Semen Indonesia. Consistent cement industry growth in South East Asia may be about to change.

Suez Cement and Italcementi's first waste treatment plant in Egypt was inaugurated this week. The project uses 45,000t of household waste to produce 35,000t of alternative fuel annually. Given Egypt's on-going fuel concerns the project will be watched closely.

Italcementi has much riding on the success of the project. It has five integrated cement plants in the country. As reported in early February 2014, the cement producer suffered reduced production capacity in Egypt despite 'potential' domestic demand due to limited energy availability. Cement sales volumes in Egypt for Italcementi have continually fallen since 2011, accelerating from a 5.4% year-on-year reduction in 2011 to a 17.6% year-on-year reduction in 2013. Yet, despite this, rebounding domestic demand was reported in 2012 and 2013.

It must be extremely frustrating for Italcementi. It has the production capacity, it has demand but it doesn't have the fuel to power its lines. Any additional fuel will be welcome. At a rough and conservative rate of 200kg of fuel per tonne of cement produced, Italcementi and Suez Cement's new alternative fuel stream could help to produce 175,000t of cement or about 1.5% of the cement producer's clinker production capacity of 12Mt/yr.

Lafarge, with its mega 10.6Mt/yr cement plant outside of Cairo, hadn't suffered (publicly) as much as Italcementi from fuel shortages until the publication of its financial results for 2013. Although sales had decreased year-on-year since 2009, this has been blamed on competition. Now it has been announced that cement volumes decreased by 30% in the first half of 2013 due to shortages of gas. This was mitigated through fuel substitution to a 19% drop in the third quarter and a 7% drop in the fourth quarter.

However, Lafarge's strategy for fuel security may be threatened as the Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs ordered the producer to stop preparations to build storage units for petcoke in February 2014 citing environmental and economic reasons. What happening here is unclear given that the Egyptian government has been encouraging cement producers to move away from using natural gas.

The examples above show the reactions two multinational cement producers, Italcementi and Lafarge, have made to secure their fuel supplies. The outcomes remain uncertain.

In other news, Shijiazhuang in Hebei province in China has started the demolition of 17 (!) more cement plants. This follows 18 plants that were demolished in December 2013. In total, 18.5Mt/yr of cement production capacity has been torn down.

This is more than the cement production output of most European countries or any single US state! Where was this cement going previously? What were the effects on the price of cement in China? Who is taking the loss for the destruction of this industrial production capacity? BBC News Business Editor Robert Peston has some ideas.

The 8th Global CemFuels Conference & Exhibition on alternative fuels for cement and lime takes place in Vienna, Austria on 24 - 25 February 2014

Recovery in the European cement markets arrived slowly in 2013. Balance sheets at HeidelbergCement, Cemex, Italcementi, Vicat and Buzzi Unicem appear to have stalled into something less than the recovery that everybody wants. The picture is more stable in Western Europe but declining revenues have headed east.

The European Commission's Autumn 2013 Economic Forecast has summed it up well, predicting that the European Union's (EU) gross domestic product (GDP) would remain static in 2013. On the strength of the results seen so far that feels about right. The cement industry in Europe hasn't continued to decline but the 'recovery' is slow. Yet a recovery is happening on the strength of these financial results so far. Compared to some of the sales declines seen in 2012 this is good news.

With results from the big European-based cement producers Lafarge and Holcim due later in February 2014, here is a summary of the European situation.

HeidelbergCement's revenue has remained flat in 2013 at Euro13.9bn although its cement, clinker and ground-granulated blast-furnace slag (GGBS) sales volumes have risen by 2.6% to 91.3Mt. Compare this with the 8.7% bounce in revenue from 2011 to 2012. By region, the problem areas have now shifted from losses in Western and Northern Europe to losses in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Market pickup in the UK has driven this turnaround, despite diminished sales volumes in Germany.

Similarly, Cemex's sales have also remained flat at US$15.2bn. Both of its European areas have improved their sales, with sales losses only reported for the Northern Europe region. Again, sales in the UK drove overall business with France starting to improve too.

Italcementi had it tougher in 2013 with its sixth consecutive drop in revenue since 2008. Just like HeidelbergCement, the problem regions for Italcementi have shifted east in 2013 from Western Europe to the group's Emerging Europe, North Africa and Middle East area. However Italcementi is losing revenue in Western Europe faster than HeidelbergCement, mainly due to the poor Italian market.

Elsewhere, Vicat reported that its consolidated cement sales fell by 4% to Euro1.11bn. Sales decline lessened in France and the rest of Europe even saw sales rise by 4% to Euro427m. Buzzi Unicem saw its cement sales volumes remain static in 2013 at 27.4Mt.

Overall it may not feel great but it's better than the cement industry news for Europe we've been used to in recent years. With the European Commission Economic Forecast suggesting a 1.4% rise in GDP in 2014, the next 12 months look more promising.