Displaying items by tag: Consumption

Qatar: Rising government infrastructure spending is predicted to double demand for cement in Qatar by 2017. Dubai-based financial services firm Arqaam Capital has reported that the Qatari government is expected to release up to US$50bn for construction projects in 2014, a rise of 15% compared to 2013.

The move follows the state's plan to invest US$208bn on infrastructure developments in 2013 - 2018, largely linked to the 2022 World Cup. Arqaam has projected that, given that current projects are worth US$70bn and have an average churn rate of 3- 4 years, the expenditure implies that cement demand will double within the next three years. Cement demand is expected to grow to hit 9.4Mt/yr in 2017.

"We expect production capacity and demand levels to reach equilibrium by 2018. Our forecasts are on the conservative side as Qatar's Ministry of development and planning's most recently published survey suggests demand for limestone is set to increase by 131% in 2014 and 127% in 2015," said a report by Arqaam.

Indonesia: Indonesia's cement consumption is expected to rise by more than 10% year-on-year to 62Mt in 2013, compared to 55Mt in 2012. Tuti Rahayu, the Industry Ministry's director for downstream chemical industry, informed the Antara News agency that the increase in demand for cement was due to the country's growing infrastructure development.

According to Tuti, consumption of cement in Indonesia grew by 14.5% year-on-year in 2012 to 55Mt compared to 48Mt in 2011. Demand in the eastern parts of country grew the most rising by nearly 54%. The country has had to build at least two new cement factories each year to meet surging demand. Tue added that a mixture of state-run and private companies have started building new factories across Indonesia in Papua, Sulawesi, Sumatra and Java.

Spain: Cement consumption in Spain will close 2012 with a drop of 33% year-on-year, the fifth double-digit decline in a row, according to data from the country's association of cement producers Oficemen.

Oficemen expects that the demand will also shrink by 20% in 2013, until it reaches the levels similar to those in Morocco and Ecuador. Spanish cement consumption was at a 48-year low after the first half of 2012.

Meanwhile, the Spanish cement and building materials producer Sociedad de Cementos y Materiales de Construccion de Andalucia, controlled by Portuguese cement group Cimpor, is negotiating the lay-off of 35 staff with its employees and trade unions. The proposed move will affect 25 staff at its plant in Cordoba and 10 employees at a factory in Niebla.

Brazil: A large report by Sindicato Nacional da Industria do Cimento (SNIC) has revealed that home consumption of cement has risen by 104% in Brazil since 2006. The report, carried out by Galanto Consultoria, showed that Brazilian families are carrying out more home improvement, resulting in a surge in demand for many building materials.

DIY consumption of cement rose from US$14m in 2002-2003 to US$28.8m in 2008-2009. Interestingly, the use of bricks fell from 6% to 4.6%, wood from 5.7% to 3.9% and tiling from 6.4% to 5.9% of total materials used over the same period. The president of SNIC, Jose Otavio Carvalho, said that DIY applications now represent 18.23% of the total consumption of cement in Brazil.

Overall cement consumption in Brazil has risen by 34% to U$1.7bn in 2011, up from US$1.3bn in 2006. The major regional consumer is the south east with a 40.2% share followed by the north east with a 25.5% share of national consumption.

SNIC estimates that Brazil produced 63.6Mt of cement in 2011, just shy of national demand of 64.6Mt. Imports made up the shortfall. The industry's installed capacity was estimated at 78Mt/yr at the end of 2011, with SNIC predicting an increase to 111Mt/yr by the end of 2015.

Nigeria: This week has seen a major development in the Nigerian cement industry, with a call from domestic manufacturers to ban cement imports, three months ahead of the government's schedule for the ban. The call has been presented in some quarters as proof that the country, long blighted by high cement imports, has achieved President Goodluck Jonathan's bold target of making Nigeria a net exporter of cement before 2013. In the face of steadily diminishing oil revenues the government would like Nigeria to be known as the regional cement exporter, but what else might happen?

According to the Cement Manufacturers' Association of Nigeria (CMAN), the country's total cement capacity now stands at 22.5Mt/yr. Domestic consumption is estimated at 18.5Mt/yr, translating into a required capacity utilisation rate of 82%. It is bizarre, therefore, that cement producers feel the need to call for an import ban. Perhaps:

a) The producers know that they can't compete with the low cost of imports from outside Nigeria,

b) The producers want to recoup their plant investment costs as quickly as possible,

c) The producers know that they can't export if the country continues to import.

With notoriously poor transport links within Nigeria, option c may be a small factor. If road and rail links are poor, transport costs increase and exports become less desirable for both the supplier and the end-user. What is more likely however, is a combination of a and b. Producers need to recoup their investments but can't if China and India can undercut them from thousands of miles away. If the desire to recoup investments goes unchecked when the import ban comes in, there is a high potential for cartel-like behaviour to surface again in the country.

One does not have to look back far to the last major incident of apparent cement market cartelisation in Nigeria. In mid-2011 President Jonathan had to step in and personally call for a 25% price reduction. His target was hit within three months, but since then prices have slowly started to rise again, even with Dangote's Ibese 6Mt/yr plant coming online just three months ago! With four producers committed to setting up a 3Mt/yr plant each by 2015 in exchange for 2011 import licences, the supply of cement in Nigeria will continue to rise, making the temptation to collaborate even stronger.

Indonesia: It seems that not a week goes past without a forecast, announcement or other report about the continued boom in the Indonesian cement industry. Similarly, there is a steady stream of expansion announcements to accommodate the future demand. In light of another round of impressive cement statistics, what's the story for Indonesia in 2012 and beyond?

In the three months to 31 March 2012 Indonesia produced 12.5Mt of cement, an 18% rise on the first quarter of 2011. In the whole of that year, the cement industry turned out a massive 17% more cement than in 2010. These headline increases are certainly impressive and show that if the first quarter of 2012 was repeated three more times throughout the rest of the year, Indonesia would hit its 53Mt production forecast. This is more than double the cement production of 1998 (22Mt/yr in the midst of the Asian banking crisis) and, while from a low base, the values represent incredible sustained year-on-year demand growth.

But what is the potential of the Indonesian cement industry? This can be assessed by looking one of Indonesia's neighbours, namely Malaysia, and doing a quick thought-experiment. What would the Indonesian cement industry look like if the country were to suddenly develop demands and cement consumption patterns like Malaysia does today? Indonesia has a population 8.3 times higher than Malaysia¹ and a cement consumption/capita rate approximately 2.4 times lower.² Assuming current Indonesian cement consumption to be 50Mt, if all of the people in Indonesia were to suddenly start using cement like Malaysia does today, the country's cement industry would have to be nearly 1000Mt/yr to support demand!

While this is clearly not the case today and is unlikely to be fully realised, Indonesia will continue to develop economically. As it does, the world's fourth most populous nation will need more cement. How much is open to debate, but even if a small percentage of that hypothetical 1000Mt can be realised, it will certainly justify the current rush to add extra capacity. This is now especially likely in light of the December 2011 relaxation of land acquisition rules, which will make it easier to build both cement projects and the large construction projects that need cement.

Click here for much more on the cement industries of Indonesia and Malaysia (as well as Vietnam) from the April 2012 issue of Global Cement Magazine.

1. CIA World Factbook website, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook.

2. Cement consumption per capita data for Malaysia taken from Lafarge 2010 Annual Report. (http://www.lafarge.com/04112011-customers_activities-cement_market_2010-uk.pdf). Malaysia is a representative comparison for Indonesia based on its GDP to cement consumption ratio.

Pakistan: Cement manufacturers in Pakistan are regretting their decision to increase capacity as consumption has remained stagnant over the past four years, according to the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA). Exports are also declining, forcing the sector to operate at 69% of its installed capacity.

An APCMA spokesman explained how capacities were increased when the economy was booming and that most of the plant capacities were increased in the northern part of the country. For these regions Afghanistan was the only export market but its potential was limited. Exports to India were limited at that time and today as well due to many non-tariff barriers erected by India.

The spokesman regretted that the growth during the past four years had been much below expectations and that the government also failed to provide funds for, what he called, 'essential' infrastructure. The fierce competition between the mills sitting on huge capacities kept the rates of the commodity much below the average inflation in the country, he added. Rates of inputs of the industry increased in line with the inflation and rupee devaluation while the cement prices increased by just 6% from the average cement rates in 2006.

The APCMA spokesman added that exports, which provided some relief to the industry in the past few years, have declined at a rapid pace during the first eight months of the current fiscal year (July 2011 to February 2012). During this period the decline in exports was 5.57% to 5.62Mt from 5.95Mt during the corresponding period in 2010-2011. He said that exports to India, mostly via train, had increased by 39.5%.

China: On 5 March 2012 Premier Wen Jiabao lowered China's growth target for 2012 to 7.5% from 8%, signalling Beijing's determination to manage a 'soft landing' to moderate its runaway economic expansion. The slowdown will likely hit China's construction sector, which accounts for most of China's rampant cement consumption. China exported only 10.6Mt/yr of cement in 2011, just 1.1% of national output. The worries over China's plans are affecting certainty in all major materials markets.

Credit Suisse described China's more moderate growth target as 'acceptance of slower medium-term growth.' It also said that infrastructure spending was on a downward trend due to the completion of many large highway, railway and airport projects.

Despite this, Guo Wensan the chairman of China's largest cement producer Anhui Conch, has announced that demand for cement remains strong in China. He said that the government's drive to push the construction of subsidised affordable housing is successfully offsetting declining cement demand from the private housing market.

Guo said that cement demand from the 10 million affordable housing units started in 2011 will peak from the second quarter of 2012 onwards. "This year there will be another 7 million public housing starts, so we remain confident," he said. Guo added that the cement industry has benefited from consolidation since the start of 2011, which has seen the removal of older, inefficient kilns and the closure of some companies.

South Korea: South Korea's cement exports reached an all-time high in 2011 as domestic manufacturers turned their eyes overseas amid a deepening domestic property slump.

The Korea Cement Association (KCA) said that South Korean cement manufacturers exported a total of 4.49Mt of cement in 2011, up a massive 62% from the 2.77Mt exported in 2010. The total amount of clinker and cement exported by South Korea rose to 9.97Mt, surpassing the 2010 record of 7.53Mt.

The KCA said that the long-running slump in the local construction market had forced its domestic companies to make inroads into overseas markets and diversify their business portfolios. "Cement makers sought to sell their products in overseas markets because the local demand for cement was so low," said an official from a local cement manufacturer.

Thailand: The Thai cement industry is still waiting to see more details of the government's programme for infrastructure projects following the recent devastating floods. It is anxious to determine whether growth will exceed the normal annual rate of 3-5%. The government so far has not laid out clear plans on repairing the flood damage to roads and other infrastructure installations or for how it intends to bolster the Kingdom's disaster-protection system with floodways and/or drainage tunnels.

Kan Trakulhoon, president and chief executive officer of Siam Cement Group, said that demand for the cement in 2012 was now anticipated to grow by 5%. This rate is expected to continue for several years thanks to the demand for repairs to roads, houses and other buildings, as well as improving the flood-protection system and constructing new homes. However, it has to wait for an outline of new infrastructure projects from the government before making a clear forecast of cement demand in 2012 and the medium-term.

Trakulhoon said that sales of building materials had bright growth prospects after the flood water recedes. "Because of the floods, the demand for high-rise condominiums in central Bangkok will be higher. I have always believed that the number of high-rise residences such as condominiums has not reached saturation. I have an optimistic view that demand for cement will keep growing."

Trakulhoon also pointed to the overall improved sales of building materials and cement in October 2011 as evidence for his optimism. In that month, sales of cement in the centre of Thailand dropped by 40% but sales in the north, south and northeast were good, indicating a strong background of cement growth.

Chantana Sukhumanont, executive vice president of Siam City Cement, the country's second-largest cement producer, pointed out that restoration itself does not require particularly large amounts of cement. She said that cement consumption in 2012 would not grow significantly from building restoration, highlighting a greater need for fittings and finishings such as plumbing fixtures and electrical wiring.