Displaying items by tag: Iran

Turkey: Exports of cement to Iran have fallen by 34% year-on-year in value in the first eight months of 2020 to US$9.30m from US$14.1m. All Turkish cement exports over the period totalled US$2.30bn, down by 2.3% from US$2.35bn. Cement accounted for 2.6% of the country’s total exports (US$88.4bn).

Iran: Data from the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) shows that cement producers exported 5.85Mt of cement in the first five months of the local 2021 financial year, which began on 20 March 2020. The value of cement exports fell by 52% year-on-year to US$128m from US$266m, according to the Tehran Times newspaper. Iraq, Kuwait and Afghanistan were the top destination for the exports. Cement was also sent to India, Russia, Qatar, Kenya, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Armenia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, China, and Oman.

In its 2020 financial year Iran exported a total of US$7.0bn-worth of building materials and produced 85Mt of cement against a domestic consumption of 65Mt.

Iran: Sistan and Baluchestan Province has reported total exports of 54,000t of cement to Afghanistan in the first quarter of the Iranian fiscal year (21 March - 21 June 2020). Fars News Agency has reported that a total of 2060 trucks made the deliveries with an average load of 26t. Iran exports 11Mt/yr of cement, primarily to North Africa and the Gulf states, against a domestic consumption of 61Mt/yr.

Iran: A new cement company has registered with the Tehran stock exchange. Called Tamin Cement Holding, it says that it will invest in cement, other related products and construction, according to the filing.

Azerbaijan: Akkord Cement has reported sales of 237,000t of cement in the first four months of 2020, up by 20% year-on-year from 197,000t in the same period of 2019. April 2020 sales fell to 31,200t due to the impacts on demand of the coronavirus outbreak. Trend News has reported that Akkord Cement’s 1.0Mt integrated Gazakh cement plant in Ganja region produced 3250t of clinker for export, up by 10% from 2960t in 2019. The company says that it ‘plans to organise exports’ of clinker from the 3300t/day clinker capacity plant to Iraq and Qatar ‘after the country leaves the coronavirus quarantine regime.’ It added, “The export of clinker to Iran in the future is also being considered.”

Armenia: The government has included cement production under a list of permitted economic activities able to resume from 16 April 2020. Azbarez News has reported that the present lockdown is scheduled to continue until 15 May 2020. Cement and clinker imports from neighbouring Iran, historically the main source of construction cement for Armenia, have continued throughout the coronavirus crisis.

Armenia: The Armenian government has announced that it plans to extend the duration of state duties on cement imported from Iran and several other countries until 1 July 2020. The decision was made on the basis of analysis that confirmed an extension of the customs duties was appropriate. The government said that it would continue to monitor the situation.

According to the RA Statistical Committee Armenia produced 0.59Mt of cement in 2019, 8.1% more than in 2018. The RA Customs Service reported that the country imported 0.31Mt in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 70.5%.

Azerbaijan: Akkord Cement has indicated that it plans to produce 1.6Mt of cement and clinker at its Gazakh plant in Dash Salahli in 2020. This would represent a 33% year-on-year increase from 1.2Mt in 2019. In 2019, Akkord Cement exported 500t of clinker from the plant to Georgia. Trend News has reported that the company intends to also export clinker to Iran in 2020.

Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan imported 3.27Mt of cement in 2019, down by 6.8% year-on-year from 3.51Mt in 2018. The value of cement imported fell by 13% to US$154m from US$176m. Trend newspaper has reported that cement imports from Kazakhstan fell by 32% to 0.97Mt from 1.43Mt. Imports from Tajikistan and Turkmenistan also fell, but rose by 85% from Iran, to 0.59Mt from 0.32Mt.

Uzbekistan, which has a 12.9Mt/yr installed cement production capacity, removed its zero rate of customs duty on cement in October 2019 in order to help align domestic demand with production.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) took on direct implications for the international cement industry this week when an Italian vendor infected with the virus visited Lafarge Africa in Ogun state, Nigeria. The cement producer said that it had ‘immediately’ started contact tracing and started isolation, quarantine and disinfection protocols. This included initiating medical protocols at its Ewekoro integrated plant, although local press reported the unit’s production lines were still open. Around 100 people were thought to have had contact with the man.

Global Cement has been covering the epidemic since early February 2020 when the virus’ effect on the construction industry in China started to become evident. First, an industry event CementTech was postponed, financial analysts started forecasting negative financial consequences for producers and plants started going into coronavirus-related maintenance or suspension cycles. Then at least one plant started to dispose of clinical waste and now China National Building Material Group (CNBM) is considering how to restart operations at scale. Also, this week Hong Kong construction companies reportedly laid off 50,00 builders due to a lack of cement due to the on-going production suspension in China.

The major cement companies have identified that their first business risk from coronavirus comes from simply not having the staff to make building materials. LafargeHolcim’s chief executive officer Jan Jenisch summed up the group’s action in its annual financial results for 2020 this week when he said, “We are taking all necessary measures to protect the health of our employees and their families.” Other major cement producers that Global Cement has contacted have placed travel restrictions for staff and reduced access to production facilities.

The next risk for cement companies comes from a drop in economic activity. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts a global 0.5% year-on-year fall in real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 2.4%, with China and India suffering the worst declines in GDP growth at around 1%. The global figure is the worst since the -0.1% rate reported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2009. The OECD blamed the disease control measures in China, as well as the direct disruption to global supply chains, weaker final demand for imported goods and services and regional declines in international tourism and business travel. This forecast is contingent on the epidemic peaking in China in the first quarter of 2020 and new cases of the virus in other countries being sporadic and contained. So far the latter does not seem to have happened and the OECD’s ‘domino’ scenario predicts a GDP reduction of 1.5%. All of this is likely to drag on construction activity and demand for cement and concrete for some time to come.

Moving to cement markets and production, demand is likely to be slowed as countries implement various levels of isolation and quarantine leading to reduced residential demand for buildings directly and as workforces are restricted. Business and infrastructure projects may follow as economies slow and governments refocus spending respectively.

The UK government, for example, is basing its coronavirus action plan on an outbreak lasting four to six months. This could potentially happen in many countries throughout 2020. This has the potential to create a rolling effect of disruption as different nations are hit. Assuming China has passed the peak of its local epidemic then its producers are likely to report reduced income in the first quarter of 2020. The effect may even be reduced somewhat due to the existing winter peak shifting measures, whereby production is shut down to reduce pollution. Elsewhere, cement companies in the northern hemisphere may see their busy summer months affected if the virus spreads. The effect on balance sheets may be visible with indebted companies and/or those with more exposure to affected areas disproportionately affected. The wildcard here is whether coronavirus transmits as easily in warmer weather as it does in the cooler winter months. In this case there may be a difference, generally speaking, between the global north and south. Exceptions to watch could be cooler southern places such as New Zealand, Argentina and Chile. Shortages, as mentioned above in Taiwan, potentially should be short term, owing to global overcapacity of cement production, as end users find supplies from elsewhere.

The cement industry is also likely to encounter disruption to its supply chains. Major construction projects in South Asia are already reporting delays as Chinese workers have failed to return following quarantine restrictions after the Chinese New Year celebrations. As other countries suffer uncontrolled outbreaks then similar travel restrictions may follow. Global Cement has yet to see any examples of materials in the cement industry supply chain being affected. On the production side, raw mineral supply tends to be local but fuels, like coal, often travel further. Fuel markets may prove erratic as larger consumers cut back and suppliers like the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) react by restricting production.

On the maintenance side cement plants need a wide array of parts such as refractories, motors, lubricants, gears, wear parts for mills, ball bearings and so forth. Some of these may have more complicated supply chain routes than they used to have 30 years ago. On the supplier side any new or upgrade plant project is vulnerable if necessary parts are delayed by a production halt, logistics delayed and/or staff are prevented from visiting work sites. Chinese suppliers’ reliance on using their own workers, for example, might well be a hindrance here until (or if) international quarantine rules are normalised. Other suppliers’ weak points in their supply chains may become exposed in turn. This would benefit suppliers with sufficiently robust chains.

Chinese reductions in NO₂ emissions in relation to the coronavirus industrial shutdown have been noted in the press. A wider global effect could well be seen too. This could potentially pose problems to CO₂ emissions trading schemes around the world as CO₂ prices fall and carbon credits abound. This might also have deleterious effects on carbon capture and storage (CCS) development if it becomes redundant due to low CO₂ pricing. In the longer-term this might undesirable, as by the time the CO₂ prices pick up again we will be that much nearer to the 2050 sustainability deadlines.

COVID-19 is a new pandemic in all but name with major secondary outbreaks in South Korea, Iran and Italy growing fast and cases being reported in many other countries. The bad news though is that individual countries and international bodies have to decide how to balance the economic damage disease control will cause, versus the effects of letting the disease run unchecked. Yet as more information emerges on how to tackle coronavirus, the good news is that most people will experience flu-like symptoms and nothing more. Chinese action shows that it can be controlled through public health measures while a vaccine is being developed.

Until then, frequent handwashing is a ‘given’ and many people and organisations are running risk calculations on aspects of what they do. It may seem flippant but even basic human interaction such as the handshake needs to be reconsidered for the time being.