Displaying items by tag: construction

The Construction Products Association (CPA) has just forecast a 25% drop in construction output for 2020 in the UK due to Covid-19. And this is the optimistic prediction! It blamed the decline, which is said to be the sharpest ever recorded, on the country’s coronavirus-related lockdown. 60% of planned construction output was lost in April 2020 due to social distancing measures. This compares to a 6.5% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2020 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2020 for the UK. OneStone Consulting’s Joe Harder in his Covid-19 Impact Analysis CIC 2025 report has forecast a 12.7% decrease in European cement production. Readers should keep in mind that construction output, GDP and cement production are all connected but not necessarily directly related.

Further details of note from the CPA include a direct link between the strength of lockdown measures and work lost, as well as differences between types of activity. So, for example, more construction output (in percentage terms) was reported lost in Scotland, where tighter lockdown measures were implemented. On the latter point, more output was lost in residential construction compared to non-residential with a similar trend reported in the repair, maintenance and improvement sector, again worsened in the residential part of this market. The sector that suffered the least was non-residential repair and maintenance as work on, currently, mostly deserted buildings and infrastructure was prioritised. One example of this may have been Aggregate Industries, the UK subsidiary of LafargeHolcim, which said this week that it had completed major works on the A14, a major regional trunk road, ahead of schedule. It didn’t directly make the link in its press release but quiet roads would have helped.

The CPA is touting the now-familiar range of letter-shaped economic recession shapes in the report, including ‘V’, ‘W’ and the dreaded ‘U’. However, the CPA’s Economics Director Noble Francis was more confident that infrastructure projects would bounce back fastest due to favourable investment cycles in utilities, government support for its high-speed railway scheme HS2 and, “greater ability to implement safe distancing for workers on larger sites.”

That last point ties in nicely with the operational guidance that the Mineral Product Association (MPA), the UK’s trade association for the heavy building material sector in the UK, released last week. This is all crucial information on a comprehensive and detailed scale along the lines released in other countries.

Much of this will be becoming second nature to cement industry workers and/or will be familiar to anyone who has watched US consultant John Kline discuss these issues on Global Cement Live. Yet there are some points worth discussing here such as ‘Avoid Distraction.’ This one’s all about remembering to keep in mind existing health and safety practices alongside all the coronavirus-related ones. All the usual health and safety regulations and advice remain in place and in some ways become even more important as there may be fewer staff working on socially-distanced sites, or first responders may be otherwise busy elsewhere. Another point from the MPA’s guidance is to ‘Provide More Time,’ which acknowledges that working with coronavirus measures will require more time. Other implications from a business changed by coronavirus are things like notifying the police when sites are closed and considering further security for such sites to minimise risk of theft. A lot of this stuff seems obvious but it’s easy to miss things.

For a recent review of the UK cement industry readers should refer to Edwin Trout’s feature in the June 2020 issue of Global Cement Magazine. One change since it was published has been Cemex’s proposal to mothball its 0.8Mt/yr South Ferriby integrated plant in Lincolnshire. The cement producer says it is not related to coronavirus but if the CPA’s predictions are accurate then it will make it that much harder to keep the plant open.

Everyone’s hoping for a ‘V’ shaped recovery from the coronavirus downturn in the UK and everywhere else around the world. Boots on the ground operating advice like that issued by the MPA and others is part of how the construction materials industries can work towards achieving this.

UK: The Construction Products Association (CPA) has predicted a 25% year-on-year decline in total national construction output in 2020. It said that the coronavirus lockdown resulted in the loss of 60% of planned construction output in April 2020, included 85% of homebuilding.

CPA economics director Noble Francis said, “Even under this most optimistic of scenarios, the country’s construction activity would suffer its sharpest fall ever recorded. Returns to site in May 2020 will focus on partially completed developments rather than new starts as house builders are expected to be cautious given uncertainty regarding demand. This uncertainty will also keep the recovery muted in commercial offices, industrial factories and the most severely-affected sub-sector, commercial retail.” He added, “A more positive outlook is expected for infrastructure activity thanks to a greater ability to implement safe distancing for workers on larger sites but also, vitally, thanks to HS2 being given the go ahead to proceed. An increase in activity from the five-year investment programmes within regulated sectors such as water and sewerage, roads and rail also adds to this more positive story.”

India: Construction work has yet to return to normality following the easing of the coronavirus lockdown in Uttar Pradesh as cement and other materials have not reached building sites. The Hindustan Times has reported that restrictions to the movement of goods across state and district borders have caused extensive disruption of supply chains. The website for travel permits needed by workers who do not live at the site at which they are employed has reportedly crashed multiple times due to oversubscription, leading to some staffing issues. Confederation of Real Estate Developers Association of India (CREDAI) deputy chair Uttar Pradesh West Amit Modi said, “We can only resume work once these things get back to normal."

UK: The government has encouraged construction work to resume from 11 May 2020. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said, “Those who can’t work from home - thinking particularly the construction and manufacturing sectors - we are encouraging to go back to work now.” The advice follows the Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s speech of 10 May 2020, in which he announced the easing of the nation’s coronavirus lockdown as it moves into its second phase. Johnson said that a second spike in infections would lead to a return to full lockdown.

Germany: HeidelbergCement has reported a fall in first quarter revenues by 7% year-on-year in 2020, to Euro3.93bn from Euro4.24bn. Revenues fell by 6% in Western and Southern Europe and by 10% in the Asia-Pacific region, but rose by 11% in North America, by 2% in Northern and Eastern Europe and Central Asia and by 3% in Africa-Eastern Mediterranean Basin.

HeidelbergCement Managing Board
Chair Dominik von Achten said that, after year-on-year sales increases across all business lines, “from mid-March our sales volumes were significantly impaired by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, such as state-imposed production downtimes and construction stoppages on major infrastructure projects.” Total cement and clinker sales over the period were 27.7Mt, down by 3.0% year-on-year from 28.6Mt.

Thanks to its COPE coronavirus action plan, HeidelbergCement says that it has reduced 2020 spending by Euro1.0bn. It says that it has Euro5.7bn of financial liquidity.

Pakistan: Producers dispatched 3.52Mt of cement in April 2020, down by 24% year-on-year from 4.61Mt in April 2019. Domestic consumption was 3.27Mt, down by 19% from 4.04Mt due to the coronavirus outbreak. The Business recorder newspaper has reported that cement producers were already ‘struggling to survive due to extremely high input costs.'

The All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) said, "The decline in construction activities around the world, including in Pakistan, contributed to a downfall in demand, however, the cement sector even otherwise was operating under acute distress."

India: Construction has stalled in Tamil Nadu because consumers are reportedly unable to buy cement. The supply chain has been disrupted because police have shut shops across the state following breaches of social distancing rules after the partial easing of the coronavirus lockdown.

Ramco Cements Managing Director Arrakundal Dharmakrishnan said, “We have instructed our dealers that they must follow social distancing norms.”

In neighbouring Telangana, chief minister Kalvakuntla Rao has extended the lockdown period to 29 May 2020, subject to a review on 15 May 2020 that may result in the resumption of construction works and the re-opening of non-essential shops.

Colombia: Cementos Argos’ first quarter profit was US$1.00m, down by 73% year-on-year from US$3.76m in the corresponding period of 2019. Sales fell by 0.2% to US$545m from US$547m. The volume of cement it sold fell by 6.1% to 3.62Mt from 3.86Mt in the corresponding period of 2019. The company launched RESET, a savings initiative in response to the coronavirus outbreak, which aims to save between US$75.0 and US$90.0m in 2020.

Cementos Argos’ CEO Juan Esteban Calle said, “Given the US$154m-strong cash position of the company, the saving initiatives within RESET, the support from our stakeholders, and the passionate commitment of our more than 7000 employees, we firmly believe that Argos is fully prepared to face the current market conditions.”

Colombia’s coronavirus lockdown ended on 13 April 2020 for infrastructure projects and on 27 April 2020 for cement production and residential and commercial construction. On 5 May 2020 Cementos Argos said that domestic demand was at 50% of pre-lockdown levels.

India: The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) has asked the government to restart home and road building to help cement producers. The Press Trust of India newspaper has reported that all construction work has stalled since 25 March 2020 due to the coronavirus lockdown. The FICCI believes that Indian cement demand is currently set to decline by 10-12% year-on-year. To relieve the sector, the FICCI urged the Indian government to lift the lockdown in metropolitan areas in order to allow the continuation of residential construction, which accounts for 60-65% of cement demand.

To protect domestic producers from any import dumping post-crisis, the FICCI has suggested that Indian cement sales should be subsidised. It also requested a ‘relaxation of environmental emission norms’ until mid-2022 ‘to save the industry from additional capex expenses.’

Oman: Cement producers have reacted positively to anti-dumping measures implemented by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. The Oman Observer newspaper has reported that the measures, which consist of quality screening, have, since coming into force on 1 March 2020, been ramped up in construction, with a general restriction of the movement of goods due to the coronavirus. Raysut Cement said, “These measures will enable Raysut Cement and our peers Oman Cement to operate at full capacity. We hope that the authorities will continue to strictly enforce this measure in the interest of fair market competition.”

Raysut Cement said that it is ‘Aggressively pushing ahead’ with its US$30m Port of Duqm grinding plant project, which is due for commission in March 2021. “It is a good time for countries like Oman to become self-sufficient in the domestic availability of a strategic commodity like cement,” it said. On 4 May 2020 Raysut Cement announced plans to lobby the government for a gas or electricity subsidy.

Oman’s cement demand is currently 20-25% below pre-lockdown levels.