Displaying items by tag: fossil fuels

The mountainous eastern shore of the Adriatic Sea and its hinterlands in Europe’s Balkan Peninsula have one of the world’s highest densities of countries: six, across a broad equilateral triangle of 212,000km². All six states – Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia – are historically characterised by political non-alignment, carrying over from the Cold War period, and all the more notable for the presence of the EU to the north (Croatia, Hungary and Romania) and east (Bulgaria and Greece).

A nine-plant, 9Mt/yr local cement sector serves the 16.8m-strong population of the unconsolidated ‘bloc.’ Albania has 2.8Mt/yr (31%), Serbia 2.7Mt/yr (30%), Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.6Mt/yr (18%), North Macedonia 1.4Mt/yr (15%) and Kosovo 500,000t/yr (6%), while Montenegro has no cement capacity – for now. Altogether, this gives this quarter of South East Europe a capacity per capita of 539kg/yr. The industry consists entirely of companies based outside of the region. Albania’s two plants are Lebanese and Greek-owned (by Seament Holding and Titan Cement Group respectively). Titan Cement Group also controls single-plant Kosovo and North Macedonia, and competes in the Serbian cement industry alongside larger and smaller plants belonging to Switzerland-based Holcim and Ireland-based CRH, respectively. Lastly, Bosnia & Herzegovina’s capacity is shared evenly between Germany-based Heidelberg Materials and Hungary-based Talentis International Construction, with one plant each.

Lafarge Srbija, Holcim's subsidiary in Serbia, announced plans for its second plant in the country, at Ratari in Belgrade, last week. No capacity has yet emerged, but the plant will cost €110m, making something in the region of the country’s existing 0.6 – 1.2Mt/yr plants seem likely. This would give Serbia over a third of total capacity in the Central Balkans and twice the number of plants of any other country there, expanding its per-capita capacity by 22 – 44%, from a regionally low 408kg/yr to 500 – 590kg/yr.

In announcing the upcoming Ratari cement plant, Lafarge Srbija laid emphasis on its sustainability. The plant will use 1Mt/yr of ash from the adjacent Nikola Tesla B thermal power plant as a raw material in its cement production. In this way, it will help to clear the Nikola Tesla B plant’s 1600 hectare ash dumps, from which only 180,000t of ash was harvested in 2023. Circularity has been front and centre of Holcim’s discussions of its growth in Serbia for some time. When Lafarge Srbija acquired aggregates producer Teko Mining Serbia in 2022, the group indicated that the business would play a part in its development of construction and demolition materials (CDM)-based cement and concrete.

Holcim’s Strategy 2025 growth plan entails bolt-on acquisitions in ‘mature markets,’ backed by strategic divestments elsewhere. Other companies have been more explicit about a realignment towards metropolitan markets, above all in North America, at a time when they are also diversifying away from cement and into other materials. Just why a leading producer should look to build cement capacity in Serbia warrants investigation.

Serbia is the only Central Balkan member of Cembureau, the European cement association. In a European market report for 2022, the association attributed to it the continent’s fastest declining cement consumption (jointly with Slovakia), down by 11% year-on-year. Like the rest of Europe, Serbia is also gradually shrinking, its population dwindling by 0.7% year-on-year to 6.62m in 2023, which limits hopes for a longer-term recovery. Serbia remains the largest country in the Central Balkans, with 39% of the total regional population.

Several factors have compounded Serbia’s difficulties as a cement-producing country. Firstly, like the Nikola Tesla B thermal power plant, its kilns run on coal. 50% of this coal originated in Russia and Ukraine in 2021, causing the entire operation to become ‘imperilled’ after the former’s brutal invasion of the latter in February 2022, according to the Serbian Cement Industry Association. In planning terms, this was a case of putting half one’s eggs in two baskets – and dropping them both.

Secondly, Serbia’s choice of export markets is mainly confined to either the EU or global markets via the River Danube, Black Sea and Mediterranean. Either way, it is in competition with a cement exporting giant: Türkiye. Serbia sold €19.7m-worth of cement in the EU in 2023, up by 63% over the three-year period since 2020 – 31% behind Türkiye’s €28.8m (more than double its 2020 figure).¹ One other Central Balkan country had a greater reliance on the EU market: Bosnia & Herzegovina. It exported €48.4m-worth of cement there, quadruple its 2020 figure and behind only China (€133m) and the UK (€54.7) in cement exports to the bloc by value.

Bosnia & Herzegovina’s cement industry underwent a different permutation at the start of 2024: an acquisition, replacing one EU-based player with another. Lukavac Cement, which operates the 800,000t/yr Lukavac cement plant in Tuzla, changed hands from Austria-based building materials producer Asamer Baustoffe to Hungary-based property developer Talentis International Construction. Talentis International Construction belongs to one of Hungary’s major family-owned conglomerates, Mészáros Csoport.

Besides Central Europe, Balkan countries have found a ready source of investments in the past decade in China. In construction alone, Chinese investments total €13.2bn in Serbia, €2.4bn in Bosnia & Herzegovina, €915m in Montenegro and €650m in North Macedonia.² This can be a booster shot to all-important domestic cement markets, but has some risks. Montenegro previously faced bankruptcy after Export-Import Bank of China began to call in an €847m loan for construction of the still upcoming A1 motorway in the country’s Northern Region. This did not put off the Montenegrin government from signing a new memorandum of understanding (MoU) with China-based Shandong Foreign Economic and Technical Cooperation and Shandong Luqiao Group for construction of a new €54m coast road in the Coastal Region in mid-2023.

In Montenegro, UK-based private equity firm Chayton Capital is currently funding a feasibility study for a partly state-owned cement plant and building materials complex at the Pljevlja energy hub in the Northern Region. Along with an upgrade to the existing Pljevlja coal-fired power plant, the project will cost €700m.

In 2026, EU member states will begin to partly tax third-country imports of cement and other products against their specific CO₂ emissions, progressing to the implementation of a 100% Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by 2034. Montenegro led the Central Balkans’ preparations for the EU’s CBAM roll-out with the introduction of its own emissions trading system in early 2021. Bosnia & Herzegovina will follow its example by 2026, but other countries in the region have struggled to conceive of the arrangement except as part of future EU accession agreements.

Based on the average specific CO₂ emissions of cement produced in the EU, the World Bank has forecast that exporters to the bloc will be disadvantaged if their own specific emissions exceed 5.52kg CO₂eq/€.³ By contrast, any figure below this ought to offer an increased competitive edge. Albanian cement has average emissions of 4.71kg CO₂eq/€, 15% below ‘biting point’ and 13% below Türkiye’s 5.39CO₂eq/€. Albania’s government consolidated its anticipated gains by quintupling the coal tax for 2024 to €0.15/kg. The figure is based on the International Monetary Fund’s recommended minimum CO₂ emissions tax of €55.80/t, 21% shy of the current EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) credit price of €70.49/t.⁴

The Central Balkans is a region of apparently slow markets and industry growth regardless – to 11 cement plants, following the completion of current and upcoming projects. A recurrent theme of capital expenditure investments and the way investors talk about them may help to explain this: sustainability. Looking at the mix of technologies in the current nine plants, these include wet kilns and fuels lines built for conventional fossil fuels. This is not to presume that any given plant might not be happy with its existing equipment as is. Nonetheless, the overall picture is of a set of veteran plants with scope to benefit from the kind of investments which all four global cement producers active in the region are already carrying out elsewhere in Europe. Such plans may already be in motion. In late 2023, Titan Cement Group’s North Macedonian subsidiary Cementarnica Usje secured shareholder approval to take two new loans of up to €27m combined.

As the latest news from Serbia showed, taking care of existing plants does not preclude also building new ones. The cement industry of the Central Balkans is finding its position in the new reduced-CO₂ global cement trade – one in which old and new work together.

References

1. Trend Economy, ‘European Union – Imports and Exports – Articles of cement,’ 28 January 2024, https://trendeconomy.com/data/h2/EuropeanUnion/6810#

2. American Enterprise Institute, 'China Global Investment Tracker,' 3 February 2024 https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/

3. World Bank Group, ‘Relative CBAM Exposure Index,’ 15 June 2023, https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/interactive/2023/06/15/relative-cbam-exposure-index

4. Ember, 'Carbon Price Tracker,' 26 August 2024, https://ember-climate.org/data/data-tools/carbon-price-viewer/

Switzerland: Holcim plans to invest around US$278m in its three Swiss cement plants to reduce the use of fossil fuels in cement production and comply with future limits set by the Swiss Air Quality Control Ordinance. The ‘Phoenix’ project alone is expected to cost between US$78 and US$111m, according to Clemens Wögerbauer, chief commercial and sustainability officer at Holcim Central Europe West.

The Phoenix project will reduce the use of lignite for heating cement kilns. A gasifier will be constructed to process waste materials like residual wood, paper sludge and plastics into synthesis gas for heating the kilns. Additionally, a catalyst powered by the kiln's waste heat will be used to reduce nitrogen and ammonia emissions, aligning with future Swiss environmental targets. The Siggenthal plant is expected to reduce its CO₂ emissions by over 30,000t/yr from its current output of 450,000t/yr.

The new facility is scheduled to start operating in 2028 and may be replicated in other Holcim cement plants if successful. The Phoenix initiative will increase the proportion of alternative fuels used from the current 57% to 80%, targeting over 85%.

UAE: Emirates Steel Arkan has concluded a partnership for the deployment of Finland-based Magsort’s technology in steel slag processing at its Al Ain cement plant. ZAWYA News has reported that the partners expect the technology to help reduce the plant’s limestone and fuel consumption. This will reduce its CO₂ emissions by 15%.

Emirates Steel Arkan CEO Saeed Ghumran Al Remeithi said "Green solutions such as this will help decarbonise the sector's value chain."

India: Ramco Cements reported 5% growth in sales in the third quarter of the 2024 financial year (1 October – 31 December 2023), to US$254m. Rising cement volumes – up by 9.9% to 4Mt – helped to drive the growth in sales. Despite weather-related disruptions, Ramco Cements raised its earnings before interest, depreciation, taxation, and amortisation (EBITDA) rose by 37% to US$48.4m. A 28% reduction in fuel prices to US$138/t of cement spurred earnings growth. Cement capacity utilisation during the quarter fell quarter-on-quarter to 74% to 82% previously.

Nepal: Hetauda Cement Industry (HCI) will resume cement production at its Hetauda cement plant in early February 2024, following a suspension due to coal shortages. HCI uses 36,000t/yr of coal, and currently has 600t in stockpiles. The República newspaper has reported that on-going issues with equipment have reduced the Hetauda cement plant’s effective capacity to 10,000 bags per day. Additionally, HCI has failed to find a buyer for a shipment of 225,000 bags of cement. The Nepali government is reportedly considering paying new subsidies to the company.

General manager Basanta Raj Pandey said "The management of the factory has requested the Office of Prime Minister and Council of Ministers and the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Supplies to provide subsidies to help resume its production."

Nepal’s Minister for Industry, Commerce and Supplies Ramesh Prasad Rijal said "The Prime Minister and his government are discussing arranging all possible subsidies to bring the industry back into operation as soon as possible."

Saudi Arabia: Najran Cement has informed investors via a posting on the Saudi Exchange that it expects its cost of sales to rise by 13%. This is due to an increase in the price of fuels by its supplier Saudi Aramco. The cement producer noted that the waste heat recovery (WHR) system installed at its Najran cement plant has partly reduced the anticipated impacts on costs.

Najran Cement said “The company will work during the coming period to explore ways to reduce the financial impact of this adjustment on the company’s profits and will continue to implement its plans to reduce costs and improve production and operating efficiency. It will also work with government agencies to explore ways to diversify energy sources.”

Saudi Arabia: Arabian Cement Company has estimated that its production costs will rise by 14% after Saudi Aramco raised its fuel prices. In an addendum to a previous announcement published on the Saudi Exchange on 4 January 2024, the producer said that it will explore cost reduction strategies throughout the coming financial period.

Iran: 70% of cement plants by capacity were reportedly using the low-quality heavy fuel oil mazut as cement fuel on 13 January 2024. Iranian Labour News Agency has reported that plants transitioned to the fuel from natural gas amid an on-going gas shortage. This has led to a rise in costs and increased pollution from cement plants.

Iran’s Cement Industry Employers’ Association said that the industry’s supply of natural gas has dropped to 7Mm³/yr, from 27M³/yr normally.

Saudi Arabia: Utilities provider Saudi Aramco has notified Saudi Arabian cement producers of a rise in the price of its feedstock and fuel products from 1 January 2024. Zawya News has reported that Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Company forecast the effect of the price rise to be a 1.2% increase in producers’ cost of sales in 2024.

Yanbu Cement said “The impact of changing the price of fuel products will lead to an increase in the cost of production.” Umm Al-Qura Cement echoed the concern, while Saudi Cement Company said that it is working out the extent of the financial impact and will study ways to mitigate it.

UAE/UK: The Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) has welcomed the first international agreement to transition away from fossil fuels, signed by 200 countries at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai. The GCCA said that the deal recognises the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global CO2 emissions.

GCCA chief executive officer Thomas Guillot said “We welcome the progress made at COP28. Decarbonising global industries such as ours will take the collective effort of governments and industry, finance and policymakers, scientists and civil society, all working together. On behalf of our industry and alongside our members who represent the majority of cement production globally, we participated in the preparation and launch of a number of key initiatives that will help enable the shift to net zero – including the Industrial Transition Accelerator, Cement Breakthrough, and Carbon Management Challenge.” He added “We are fully committed to decarbonising our sector and have a detailed net zero commitment and pathway which we are already working towards, including the substitution of fossil fuels, the use of renewable energy and the deployment of new technologies such as CCUS.”