Displaying items by tag: India

India: Construction has stalled in Tamil Nadu because consumers are reportedly unable to buy cement. The supply chain has been disrupted because police have shut shops across the state following breaches of social distancing rules after the partial easing of the coronavirus lockdown.

Ramco Cements Managing Director Arrakundal Dharmakrishnan said, “We have instructed our dealers that they must follow social distancing norms.”

In neighbouring Telangana, chief minister Kalvakuntla Rao has extended the lockdown period to 29 May 2020, subject to a review on 15 May 2020 that may result in the resumption of construction works and the re-opening of non-essential shops.

India: The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) has asked the government to restart home and road building to help cement producers. The Press Trust of India newspaper has reported that all construction work has stalled since 25 March 2020 due to the coronavirus lockdown. The FICCI believes that Indian cement demand is currently set to decline by 10-12% year-on-year. To relieve the sector, the FICCI urged the Indian government to lift the lockdown in metropolitan areas in order to allow the continuation of residential construction, which accounts for 60-65% of cement demand.

To protect domestic producers from any import dumping post-crisis, the FICCI has suggested that Indian cement sales should be subsidised. It also requested a ‘relaxation of environmental emission norms’ until mid-2022 ‘to save the industry from additional capex expenses.’

India: Ambuja Cements’ profit in the first three months of 2020 was US$52.4m, down by 6.5% year-on-year from US$56.2m in the corresponding period of 2019. Sales were US$3.72bn, down by 3.4% from US$3,86bn. The company said the shutdown of all plants in March 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic ‘impacted operations.’ It added, “Taking into account directives from the government, operations at a few plants have commenced in a phased manner since 20 April 2020.’

Ambuja has said that together with ACC it has donated US$434,000 to non-governmental organisations (NGOs) to provide food and ration kits to vulnerable people affected by the coronavirus outbreak. LafargeHolcim CEO India and Ambuja Cements managing director and CEO Neeraj Akhouray said, “Collaborative models are more effective in both containment of the disease as well as support for those whose livelihood and even survival is at risk. We believe that our contributions to these NGOs that are delivering grass-roots relief measures, coupled with our own companies’ efforts on ground working with local communities, will greatly accelerate the scale and impact we will have.”

India: Both Germany-based HeidelbergCement and Aditya Birla subsidiary UltraTech have responded to the government’s partial lifting of the coronavirus lockdown for rurally-located continuous industries by resuming ‘partial operations in some production facilities.’ Orient Cement subsidiary CK Birla said, “We are in the process of partially resuming our operations at our plants in Karnataka and Maharashtra.” Producers require the permission of the relevant state government to restart plants. In Telangana, where the government has not lifted the lockdown, CK Birla’s facilities remain shut.

The Economic Times newspaper has reported that ‘limited transportation facilities, higher than usual inventory and stricter rules regarding labour safety’ have added a note of caution to resumed operations. Shree Cement managing director Hari Mohan Bangur said, given the continuation of restrictions on construction in cities, “We expect just 10% of normal consumption, with hopes of a gradual increase.”

India: The impact of the coronavirus pandemic was visible in the financial performance of ACC, one of LafargeHolcim’s major Indian subsidiaries, during the three months to 31 March 2020. For the quarter, the company’s consolidated net profit fell by 6.6% on a year-on-year basis to US$42.1m, while net sales declined by 11% to US$448m on the back of a steep fall in volumes, which came to 6.6Mt, 12% lower year-on-year. ACC’s ready mix concrete (RMC) volumes remained stable at 930,000t.

The pandemic mainly impacted sales volumes in March 2020, whereas January and February 2020 saw healthy growth in both cement and RMC sales. ACC said that this was due to a focus on premium products, increase in value-added solutions in its ready mix business, cost reductions on the manufacturing side and logistics-derived savings. Input cost of raw materials were lower on account of material source mix optimisation and supply chain efficiencies. Consequently, the company’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the first quarter increased by 10% year-on-year to US$76.4m.

Sridhar Balakrishnan, ACC’s managing director and chief executive officer (CEO), said, “We believe that with a high probability of a normal monsoon season, growth in the rural economy will revive and stay strong. We expect cement demand to increase in the medium term once the pandemic subsides and business operations commence”.

India: Operations of industrial units in rural areas are clear to resume as of 20 April 2020, subject to local permissions and social distancing rules. Dion News Service has reported that JK Lakshmi Cement has resumed operations at two grinding units in Gujarat, JK Cement has resumed reduced operations at its 3.0Mt/yr integrated Muddapur plant in Karnataka and UltraTech has resumed operations ‘at some of the company’s locations.’ Ambuja Cements, ACC, ICC and India Cements all announced plans to return to full capacity utilisation in phases.

As part of phase two of India’s coronavirus lockdown, public spaces remain closed and public transport is suspended until 3 May 2020.

India: ACC Cement has awarded an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for work on its upcoming 1.0Mt/yr integrated Ametha plant in Kathnl, Madhya Pradesh to Larsen & Toubro. The Press Trust of India has reported that the 9500t/day cement plant will have a clinker capacity of 3.0Mt/yr. The value of the contract is reportedly US$131m.

India: Gujarat Sidhee Cement resumed production at its 1.2Mt/yr Sidheegram plant in Gujarat on 15 April 2020. The company said that in reopening the plant it would ‘comply with directives issued by central, state and local government,’ according to Accord Fintech News.

As India reaches two weeks into its 21 day lockdown to combat coronavirus, the financial analysts are starting to publish their forecasts as to what the effects will be for the cement industry. The results are gloomy, with demand predicted to drop by up to 25% in the financial year to March 2021 by one analyst and 40% in March 2020 alone by another.

Graph 1: Indian cement production, rolling annual by month, January 2018 – February 2020. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

The graph above sets the scene for what may be to come by showing the state of production in India in recent years. From early 2018 it picked up by 17% to 337Mt by March 2019 and stayed around there through the rest of year before breeching 340Mt in January and February 2020. The (relative) lull in production growth in 2019 was blamed by some analysts on the general election in mid-2019 and then the monsoon rains. In summary the market was improving and seemed set for further growth in 2020. Alas, this does not now seem to be the case.

Looking ahead, Rating’s agency CRISIL has published a research paper on the topic and here are some of the highlights. They break the damage down into two separate scenarios. The first, where the social distancing measures last until the end of April, cause a 10 – 15% fall in cement demand with the pain limited to the first quarter of the Indian financial year, which starts on 1 April. The second, where distancing measures last until June, cause a 20 – 25% decrease in demand, with the problems extended into the second quarter. Salient points that it makes about the anticipated recovery include a delay in infrastructure spending due to the government diverting funds to healthcare, reduced private and real estate markets and a divide between state-led affordable housing schemes in urban and rural areas. It pins its hopes on rural housing to grab demand first, followed by key infrastructure projects, especially transport schemes.

Examining the cement producers directly, CRISIL reckons that prices will fall in the face of dropping demand but that power, fuel and freight costs are all expected to fall also. Profit margins are forecast to drop compared to the 2019 – 2020 financial year but still remain higher than the two previous ones. Finally, it looked at the credit profiles of 23 companies, representing over 70% of installed production capacity. Together they had a total debt of US$7bn. It flagged up four of these companies as having high debt/earnings ratios and five with low interest coverage. The latter were described as ‘small regional firms with weak cash balances.’

That’s one view on what may happen but two recent general industry news stories offer snapshots on what may be to come for the Indian market. The first is an immediate consequence of a nationwide lockdown in a country with a population of 1.3bn and a low cost of labour. 400 construction workers at a grinding plant build for Ramco Cements in Haridaspur, Odisha, were stranded at the site when the quarantine restrictions stopped them travelling home to Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. They took up residence at the building site and then protested when the food ran out. This point about migrant labour is noteworthy because how the Indian government relaxes the lockdown could have massive consequences upon how the construction industry recovers. A possible parallel from elsewhere in the world is the slowdown effect the Saudi Arabian cement industry suffered in late 2013 when the government took action against illegal foreign workers in the construction industry.

The second news story to keep in mind is the annual results from refractory manufacturer RHI Magnesita this week. It reported growing revenue from its cement and lime customers in 2019 but it blamed a weaker market in Europe on producers stockpiling product due to tightening magnesite and dolomite raw material availability. The takeaway here is that if supply chains supporting the cement sector and the rest of the construction industry in India at the moment are affected by the coronavirus outbreak, and government action to stop it, then there may be consequences later on. So far Global Cement hasn’t seen anything like this but the preparation for coronavirus advice from industry expert John Kilne has been to indentify and secure medium term needs, including refractory and critical spare parts and to consider potential disruption to supply chains.

In terms of what happens next once the lockdown ends in India (and other countries), one media commentator has described the response to coronavrius as the ‘hammer and the dance.’ The hammer is the economy-busting measures many governments have implemented to stop local epidemics. The dance is/are the measures that countries are using before and after an outbreak to keep it suppressed until a vaccine is developed. The worry for building material producers is how much the ‘dance’ disrupts business over the next year. All eyes will be on the East Asian producer market figures for the first quarter to see how this plays out.

India: Dalmia Bharat has donated US$262,000 to the Odisha Chief Minister’s Relief Fund to help people survive the coronavirus outbreak and lockdown. United News of India has reported that Dalmia Bharat has participated in extensive humanitarian efforts during the on-going pan-Indian coronavirus lockdown, including delivering a week’s groceries to 650 families in the Odisha town of Rajgangpur and dry food packets to 900 families in districts around its Biswali, Odisha plant. The group has cooked meals for 3000 people and arranged with local administrators to feed a further 8800. Dalmia Bharat has also opened its technical centres, guest houses and schools to medical authorities for use in treating coronavirus cases. Dalmia Bharat East regional manufacturing head Sunil Gupta said, “We are totally committed to supporting the national and state governments in their fight to contain the spread of COVID-19.”