Displaying items by tag: petcoke

One big story in India in recent weeks has been the start of action by the central government to tackle rising cement prices. First it reduced tax duties on petrol and diesel in late May 2022. Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman also said that they were looking at ways of improving the availability of cement in the country, including better logistics, to help lower its cost. A delay to a change in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate structure is also being considered to slow inflation generally. Local press then reported a few days later that the government had set up a panel to explore ways of reducing the price of cement by distributing supplies better around the country. Specifically, it was talking to the South India Cement Manufacturers’ Association to work out ways for their members to meet the rising demand in other parts of the country. Reported options included looking at better use of rail and sea connections.

Chart 1: Map of Indian regions showing integrated/clinker production capacity per capita. Note: the chart does not include standalone grinding plant capacity. Source: Global Cement Directory, Indian census data. Map image adapted from Filpro CC BY-SA 4.0.

The map above (Chart 1) summarises the general problem the country faces from a clinker production point of view. More clinker can be produced in the south of the country than elsewhere. This map is partly a reflection where the limestone reserves are. However, it does not show that the East region of India has a higher concentration of cement grinding plants than elsewhere. Additionally, a number of new integrated/clinker plants have been built in the East and more have been proposed. The data in Chart 1 suggests that India has an integrated production capacity of 312kg/capita nationally. This compares to a cement consumption of 200 – 250kg/capita as reported by the ratings agency Crisil.

Data from Crisil indicates that cement prices grew by 9% from the start of 2021 to March 2022. A similar rise of 8.1% month-on-month was reported in April 2022. It is not a direct comparison but retail inflation in India was reported as being 7.8% in April 2022. The cause of this has been blamed on a general tightening in energy supplies in the autumn of 2021 followed by the effects of the war in Ukraine that started in early 2022. Rising international coal and petcoke prices have made manufacturing cement more expensive. Growing petrol and diesel prices have made moving it around costlier still. Looking at the cement market generally, Crisil noted that demand for cement grew sharply in the first half of the 2022 financial year but then slowed in the second half due to poor weather, issues with sand supply and a labour shortage. The ratings agency has forecast stable growth in the 2023 financial year but with the caveat that the mounting costs of construction, including building materials, could dent this.

The fundamentals for the world’s second largest cement market look good as Adani Group’s recent deal to buy Holcim’s Indian assets for US$6.34bn attests. This won’t be much comfort for end-users though who are watching the price of cement rocket upwards. Yet how far the central government will be able to help the southern cement producers move their wares around more easily remain to be seen. If it succeeds, it may slow the rise in prices but it seems unlikely to halt it. The reaction of the more northerly producers is also key, since one option they have is to slacken their own price increases by just enough to fight off the new competition. Already they are facing the dilemma of raising their prices to cover input costs versus the effect this may have on overall demand. All of this looks set to put pressure on the producers’ margins. Indian cement prices look set to go up whatever happens next, making everyone unhappy. Some may be more unhappy than others.

India: JK Lakshmi Cement’s full-year consolidated sales were US$697m in its 2022 financial year, up by 14.6% year-on-year from US$608m in the 2021 financial year. The group’s net profit was US$61.5m, up by 13.4% from US$54.2m.

The producer said "Despite unabated increases in petcoke and diesel prices, which are hovering at all-time high, JK Lakshmi Cement was able to achieve healthy profitability through continuous improvements in operational efficiencies, energy costs, better product mixes and higher volumes."

US: A fire has been contained within the alternative fuels system at Holcim US’ integrated Whitehall cement plant in Pennsylvania. Suppression systems were activated and then fire fighters attended the scene, according to the Express-Times newspaper. The plant has notified the US Mine Safety and Health Administration about the incident. No injuries have been reported and an investigation is ongoing. A fact sheet about the plant says that it uses 2m tires/yr as part of its alternative fuels mix. It uses coal and petcoke for 50% of its mix.

India: Finance company ICRA reported all-India cement sales in the first half of the 2022 financial year of 124Mt, up by 22% year-on-year. Mint News has reported that the total value of cement sales rose by 5% in the period compared to the first half of the 2021 financial year. Producers’ raw materials costs rose by 16%, while power, coal and petcoke costs rose by 26% and freight costs rose by 7%. Granulated blast furnace slag (GBFS) and gypsum prices also rose.

ICRA corporate ratings assistant vice president and sector head Anupama Reddy said "Despite some easing in the cost-side pressures, the input costs are likely to remain elevated in the near term, and are expected to exert pressure on operating margins, which are likely to decline by 200 to 230 basis points (BPS) in the 2022 financial year as a whole. While the capacity additions are expected to increase year-on-year in the 2022 financial year, the reliance on debt is likely to be lower owing to the healthy cash generation and strong liquidity of the cement companies. The debt coverage metrics are expected to remain strong in the 2022 financial year."

India: Ratings agency Crisil has forecast 11 – 13% year-on-year growth of cement sales volumes in the 2021 financial year. The Press Trust of India has reported that the agency predicted that high demand and increased fuel costs would precipitate a rise in cement prices to record levels before April 2022.

In December 2021, petcoke prices rose by 80% year-on-year, while the price of imported coal had more than doubled. This has increased cement producers’ costs by 40%.

India: Cement companies produced 82Mt of cement in the three-month period ending on 30 June 2021, the first quarter of the 2022 financial year, corresponding to growth of 54% year-on-year. Production in the quarter declined by 12% quarter-on-quarter, due to the proliferation of new state Covid-19 lockdowns from April 2021 onwards. The Hitavada newspaper has reported that ratings agency ICRA forecast that full-year production will rise by 12% in the 2022 financial year, on account of pent-up demand, growing rural housing demand and a pick-up in infrastructure activity. It nonetheless estimated that production will remain 2% below pre-Covid-19 outbreak 2020 financial year levels, with continuing high costs due to rising fuel prices. In the first quarter of the 2022 financial year, coal prices more than doubled and petcoke prices rose by 98% year-on-year.

Asia: France-based Fives says it has commissioned a Pillard Novaflam Evolution burner for an unnamed cement plant in East Asia. Due to the travel restrictions linked to the coronavirus pandemic, the commissioning was carried out remotely with the cooperation of the customer. A 143MW coal and petcoke burner with oil as a start-up fuel was supplied as a replacement for an old burner. The aim of this replacement was to increase the kiln capacity to 9000t/day without impacting its NO_x emissions whilst maintaining a good clinker quality despite a high sulphur content in the petcoke. The installation is now in production and an intervention is planned in the coming weeks to further optimise the operation.

Paraguay: Industria Nacional del Cemento (INC) says that it will not increase its cement prices despite the high cost of petcoke. The state-owned producer reports that both increasing international prices for the fuel and logistical challenges, such as varying river water levels, have raised overall prices. It added that stopping production would cause negative impacts to both the construction sector and the local economy.

India: Wonder Cement has ordered its eighth vertical roller mill from Germany-based Gebr. Pfeiffer. A MPS 3070 BK type mill has been selected for grinding petroleum coke and coal. The throughput rate for pure petcoke grinding will be 40t/hr with a product fineness of 2% R 90µm. The mill will be equipped with an SLS 2900 BK type classifier. Due to the high abrasiveness of Indian coal, the mill and classifier will be designed with a correspondingly robust wear protection. The new mill will support the fourth 8000t/day production line at the producer’s plant at Tehsil Nimbahera, Chittorgarh in Rajasthan.

Most of the components of the coal mill will be manufactured by Gebr. Pfeiffer India including the housing and foundation parts, the grinding bowl and a large part of the force-transmitting parts. Delivery of the mill is scheduled for the end of 2021. Commissioning of the entire kiln line with the new grinding plant is scheduled for spring 2022.

Another week and it’s another commodity story related to the effects of coronavirus. This time the Indian press and financial analysts have started to notice a shift in the fuel mix of some of the major producers from petcoke to coal. UltraTech Cement moved to 30% petcoke and 60% imported coal in the fourth quarter of its 2021 financial year that ended on 31 March 2021. This compares to a reported mix of 77% and 10% in the previous year according to Mint. Dalmia Bharat reduced its share of petcoke to 52% in the fourth quarter from 70% in the third quarter, while its coal mix was 35 - 40% in the fourth quarter.

Price is the driver here. UltraTech Cement’s chief financial officer Atul Daga summed the situation up in an earnings call in late January 2021. Essentially, he said that fuel represented about 13% of total costs for cement producers in India and that both the cost of coal and petcoke nearly doubled from June 2020 to January 2021. However, coal is seen as the cheaper option, hence the move towards it in the fuels mix ratio. The petcoke market meanwhile has suffered due to reduced oil refinery output due to, you guessed it, the effect of coronavirus on global markets in 2020. Scarcity in the US market has particularly affected the decisions on buyers for Indian cement companies since this is the key source of their imports. Demand for petcoke from Latin America and the Mediterranean hasn’t helped either. Both petcoke and coal markets are expected to stabilise in the second half of 2021. Diesel prices have also risen recently causing UltraTech Cement’s power and fuel costs to increase by 28% year-on-year to US$356m and logistics costs, including freight expenses, to rise by 25% to US$449m in the fourth quarter of its 2021 financial year.

With this in mind it’s interesting then, that for some analysts at least, fuel prices have been seen as more worrying for cement producer profits than the latest round of coronavirus-related lockdowns from India’s second wave of infection. Fitch Ratings for example, warned that the impact of mounting fuel costs would continue to be seen in the quarter to June 2021 but that it would subside due to the switch in fuel mix and price rises passed to end consumers. On the lockdowns, it forecast that localised restrictions, with cement plants being allowed to continue operating in most states, would cause a far less pronounced drop in cement demand than during the first national lockdown.

Graph 1: Monthly cement production in India, January 2019 – April 2021. Source: Office of the Economic Adviser.

Graph 1 above shows that the crisis the Indian cement sector faced during the first lockdown, when production crumbled by 85% year-on-year to 4.3Mt in April 2020. The following recovery saw production reach its second highest ever figure at 32.9Mt in March 2021. It’s too soon to tell what’s happening from the national figure but that dip in April 2021 is not looking good so far.

One benefit from unstable fuel prices is that it builds the economic case for cement producers to raise their alternative fuels substitution rates. UltraTech Cement, for example, reported that its ‘green’ energy rate grew to 13% in its 2021 financial year from 11% in 2020. With a target of 34% by its 2024 financial year, this is an ideal opportunity for a change for both UltraTech Cement and other producers.