Global Cement News

The cement output data for December 2021 is out for China and we’re starting to see the effects of a rather tough autumn. Lower coal supplies, consumer prioritisation for energy supplies, higher input costs and a slowing real estate market all contributed to a reduction in output.

Graph 1: Cement output by quarter in China, 2019 –2021. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

As can be seen in Graph 1 above, output took off after the shock of the coronavirus outbreak receded at the start of 2020. This then continued until mid-2021 when things changed. Overall cement out was 2.36Bnt in 2021, an annual drop of nearly 1.2% compared to 2.39Bnt in 2020. Note that the 2021 output figure is about average for China’s annual output since it hit a high of nearly 2.5Bnt in 2014. However, the months from September 2021 onwards have seen output drops of above 10% year-on-year. It’s been from a high base but if it were to continue it could signal a more ominous trend. As the China Cement Association (CCA) describes it, cement output started to slow from May to August 2021, in part due to seasonal factors and repeated local outbreaks of Covid-19 around the country. This trend then started to accelerate for the reasons mentioned above.

Looking at energy first, coal future prices in China hit a near-decade high in October 2021 due to a variety of market disruptions. This looked set to worsen at the start of January 2022 when the country’s biggest overseas supplier, Indonesia, banned exports for a month due domestic shortages. However, data has since emerged this week from the National Bureau of Statistics showing that Chinese coal production grew by 4% year-on-year to 4.07Bnt in 2021, with faster monthly growth, as the industry ramped up output to meet demand.

On the real estate market, the CCA views it as having run ‘hot’ and then ‘cold’ in 2021. At the start of the year the government introduced new government regulations (its so-called three red lines of policy) to reduce borrowing in the sector. The real estate market subsequently declined, not withstanding certain hot-spots. In the western press this process has been symbolised by the fortunes of Evergrande and its debts of over US$300bn. It started missing bond payments in September 2021 before formally defaulting in December 2021. As the Financial Times newspaper reported in a summary on the situation, in late December 2021, Evergrande said that work at 92% of its projects, which number in the hundreds across China, had resumed. Separate data though showed that its housing sales had slumped by 99% year-on-year in the same month. The newspaper has compared the Chinese government’s approach to Evergrande to its handling of conglomerate HNA Group, which was eventually declared bankrupt in 2021 after a slow disintegration. In its opinion the government may try to control the collapse of Evergrande through a series of quiet interventions over a long period. However, Evergrande’s debts appear to be double those of HNA Group’s and there may be further risks from other companies in the real estate sector. All of this presents risks to local cement output.

To round up, Chinese cement output in the second quarter of 2022 is the figure to watch to assess how well the industry is coping with its current issues. Production is likely to slow in the first quarter due to seasonal factors such as the New Year holidays, winter shutdowns and the hangover from the problems in the autumn. Once the spring arrives then we may have a glimpse of how cement companies are coping with coal supplies, the real estate market and all the rest.

And finally... Global Cement Weekly invites readers to explore Austria-based W&P’s virtual tours of three of its plants. The presentation is a fancier version of the panorama photo applications one can find on most smartphones but with some added mapping and visualisation settings. It’s a fantastic addition to the set of community outreach tools a cement company can use. Check it out here: https://alpacem.com/360/

Qatar: Essa Muhammed Ali Kaladari has been appointed as the new chief executive officer of Qatar National Cement Company. He succeeds Mohammed Ali Al Sulaiti who has resigned with effect from the end of January 2022.

Austria: Stefan Schriebl has been appointed as Head of Corporate Development for Wietersdorfer Group. He will be responsible in his new role for the sustainability and digitisation management of the company. Prior to joining the Wietersdorfer Group, Schriebl worked at the former BASF subsidiary MBCC Group in Austria as technical manager for concrete admixtures and at the refractory manufacturer RHI Magnesita as senior vice president for research and development in Europe.

Russia: SibCem subsidiary KuzbassTransCement has appointed Eduard Ishimov as its managing director. He succeeds Alexander Chagaev, who will continue to work as an advisor to president of Sibcem on transport and logistics. KuzbassTransCement is responsible for the operation of the railway fleet of SibCem.

Ishimov, aged 53 years, started working in the railway sector in the late 1990s. In 2006 he began working at KuzbassTransCement and has held the positions of Director for Transportation and Operation of Rolling Stock and Director for Transportation and Logistics. A graduate of the Novosibirsk Electrotechnical Institute, he also holds qualifications from t he Siberian State University of Communications and the Moscow International Higher Business School.

China: Sibo (Steven) Yan has been appointed as the general manager of KHD’s Chinese unit KHD Beijing. His new role is intended to help KHD grow its market share in China in conjunction with the company’s main shareholder, AVIC.

Yan started working for KHD in 2016 as Manager of the Tendering Department before becoming Vice President - Tendering & SCM in 2019. Previously he worked as a Technical Manager for AVIC International Beijing. He holds a PhD in Mechanical Engineering from the Beijing University of Technology.