Displaying items by tag: Consolidation

Zimbabwe: The government is looking at consolidating limestone deposits as part of the new Zimbabwe Industrial Reconstruction and Growth Plan. This plan aims to increase domestic clinker production so that ‘costly’ clinker imports are reduced, according to The Zimbabwean newspaper. The government hopes that the consolidation plan will stabilise the raw material supply chain, providing cement manufacturers with a steady source of limestone to meet demand without production interruptions. Zimbabwe’s cement industry reportedly has an installed capacity of 2.6Mt/yr, but only produces 1.65Mt/yr, with imports exceeding US$59m in 2023. The national demand is estimated at 1.8Mt/yr.

In order to support domestic production, the plan recommends increasing the cement import licence fee from US$100 to US$500 per 30t and reducing the electricity tariff from US$0.16/kWh to US$0.10/kWh.

Australia: Construction company SIMPEC, a subsidiary of WestStar, has won a new US$68m contract to work on the on-going expansion of Cockburn Cement’s Kwinana grinding plant. The work involves the construction of two 100t/hr grinding units, a 110,000t raw materials store and a reclamation system. Business News has reported that the total value of the Kwinana grinding plant expansion is US$249 - 272m. Cockburn Cement has committed total investments of US$129m to the project, of which US$7.44m consists of an existing contract with SIMPEC.

SIMPEC managing director Mark Dimasi said "This new contract demonstrates the company's track record of delivering for its clients. We are very pleased to secure this work and are committed to maintaining a long-standing relationship with Cockburn Cement and Adbri. I would like to thank Cockburn Cement for this opportunity to deliver such a high-profile local project and would also like to thank our team for their commitment in helping secure this contract.”

Mark Irwin, CEO of Cockburn Cement’s parent company Adbri said "The balance of work for the agreed scope remains consistent with Adbri's previously announced cost estimate and project schedule for the Kwinana Upgrade Project."

Argentina: Holcim Argentina has advanced its diversification strategy with the acquisition of coatings company Quitam. Quitam produces the Quimexur range of paints and liquid membranes. Holcim Argentina said that the range will join its GacoFlex Technoprotect waterproofing and roofing offering.

Holcim Argentina CEO Christian Dedeu said "This is a business opportunity strongly aligned with Holcim's growth strategy in Argentina, allowing us to expand our portfolio of solutions and products for construction, taking advantage of our channel of distributors and the over 450 points of sale of our Disensa retail network." Dedeu added "This agreement helps us to consolidate our 2025 strategy, with a focus on integral solutions to reinforce our leadership and continue to support the development of the construction sector.”

Paint and membranes currently constitute 11% of the Argentinian building products market.

Uruguay: Cementos Artigas has successfully commissioned its upgraded Minas integrated cement plant. The new plant consolidates the operations of the former 350,000t/yr Minas clinker plant and the 500,000t/yr Sayago grinding plant. Crónica Global News has reported that the project consisted of the construction of a new vertical roller mill and storage facilities at the Minas site. The work lasted 18 months and cost US$40m.

Cementos Artigas says that the Minas integrated cement plant will increase the efficiency and reduce the electricity and transport costs of its operations.

Estonia: The Estonian Competition Authority has granted permission to Schwenk Eesti to gain a majority stake in ready-mix concrete producer Betoonimeister. Baltic Business Daily News has reported that Betoonimeister's six ready-mix concrete batching plants are located in Tallinn, Tartu, Johvi, Tapa and Parnu.

Australia: Cockburn Cement has begun a US$152m upgrade of its Kwinana grinding plant. Business News has reported that the project will consolidate the company’s Kwinana and Munster grinding operations at a single 1.5Mt/yr plant. The company says that this will increase its production capacity by 36% and reduce its cement’s CO₂ emissions by 20%.

The company will manage operations at the plant directly. Managing director Nick Miller said "We've all seen through the Covid-19 outbreak that domestic manufacture of essential products such as cement and industrial lime becomes critically important. Reliability of supply has become a very important driver for decision makers." He added "We have turned away from a turnkey contract to a self-delivery model. Part of the self-delivery model is to access small to medium sub-contractors in the market, where we have seen better value in what is a very heated market."

Back on 11 March 2020, this column drew attention to the seemingly intractable overcapacity situation in Vietnam. On that day, incidentally the day that the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared the Covid-19 outbreak to be a full-blown pandemic, Vietnam held firm on its previous estimate that it would produce 103Mt of cement in 2020. 70Mt would be consumed domestically, with 33Mt exported. At the time much of the world was heading down the coronavirus rabbit hole and we were incredulous. South East Asia was worst affected by lockdowns at that point and demand was poor. It was clear that the country would struggle to find buyers, even with its famously reasonable prices.

Fast forward five months and figures from last week show that Vietnam’s cement producers actually exported an incredible 19.5Mt in the first seven months of 2020. The volume was 11% higher than the 17.6Mt exported in the corresponding period of 2019. However, prices suffered, with the value of exports falling by 5.4% to US$732m. That works out at US$37.54/t in 2020 against US$43.98/t in 2019 - a drop of US$6.44/t. Now, just as in March, the Ministry of Construction has maintained again that Vietnam will export 32-33Mt of cement and clinker in 2020. The volumes seem impressive, but it’s ‘sales for show, profit for dough.’ How much longer can the country continue to pour such vast amounts of cement into the global market at these low prices?

Well it seems the answer is ‘not any more.’ Following an announcement in May 2020 that no new cement plant projects would go ahead in 2020 after all, there is now a new cement industry development strategy to help move the sector forward. Under the plans, all plants with a capacity under 0.9Mt/yr will be forced to improve their productivity, product quality, energy efficiency and, crucially, environmental performance, by 2025. While the government says it will help to facilitate the changes, we can be reasonably sure that it wants to reduce its domestic capacity to a fairly meaningful extent. The Global Cement Directory shows that Vietnam has at least 28 plants of less than 0.9Mt/yr capacity, jointly contributing around 16.6Mt/yr. While we should be clear that the government is not calling for the wholesale elimination of capacity, removing these plants would leave the country with around 86Mt/yr of cement production and halve exports to around 16.4Mt/yr, assuming 70Mt/yr of domestic consumption. On the surface the government says it will help plants ‘facilitate’ the changes, but it remains to be seen whether its many older, less efficient plants will actually be able to jump through the hoops the authorities put in their way. Of course, one need look no further than neighbouring China to see how effective such directives from the top of government can be.

For its part the Vietnamese government is clear: Plants that don’t pick up the pace will be closed. It says that the strategy aims to “Develop the cement industry to an advanced and modern level, to produce cement of international standard quality with economical and efficient use of energy, giving high competitiveness in the international market, while meeting the needs of the domestic market, completely eliminating out-dated, natural resource-consuming and polluting technology.” The government stops just short of mentioning profitability, but it is clear that this would be another nice effect of reduced capacity in an economy where the state is effectively selling the cement by itself. China again shows what should happen next. Following major profitability improvements in 2017, 2018 and 2019, China’s producers continue to go from strength-to-strength in 2020, even taking coronavirus closures into account. This week Anhui Conch reported a 5.3% increase in its first half net profit (to a tidy US$2.33bn), with China Resources Cement chiming in with an 11% rise to US$541m. While it is unclear from outside of China just how much capacity has been terminated, the changes are having the desired effect.

So, after looking for perhaps slightly too long at dwindling returns, Vietnam’s government appears to be serious about overcapacity. Its (larger) cement producers look set to gain from supply-side reforms in the same way that many in China have. The industry will shrink over the next few years and, while closures and job losses will be unpopular, the country, its economy and its environment will benefit from this policy in the long run.

It’s the end of the year so it’s time to look at trends in the sector news over the last 12 months. It’s also the end of a decade, so for a wider perspective check out the feature in the December 2019 issue of Global Cement Magazine. The map of shifting production capacity and the table of falling CO₂ emissions per tonne are awesome and inspiring in their own way. They also point towards the successes and dangers facing the industry in the next decade.

Back on 2019 here are some of the main themes of the year in the industry news. This is a selective list but if we missed anything crucial let us know.

European multinationals retreat

LafargeHolcim left the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia, HeidelbergCement sold up in Ukraine and reduced its stake in Morocco and CRH is reportedly making plans to leave the Philippines and India, if local media speculation can be believed. To be fair to HeidelbergCement it has also instigated some key acquisitions here and there, but there definitely has been a feel of the multinationals cutting their losses in certain places and retreating that bit closer to their heartlands.

CRH’s chief executive officer Albert Manifold summed it up an earnings meeting when he said, “…you're faced with a capital allocation decision of investing in Europe or North America where you've got stability, certainty, overlap, capability, versus going for something a bit more exotic. The returns you need to generate to justify that higher level of risk are extraordinary and we just don't see it.”

The battle for the European Green Deal

One battle that’s happening right now is the lobbying behind the scenes for so-called energy-intensive industries in Europe as part of the forthcoming European Green Deal. The cement industry is very aware that it is walking a tightrope on this one. The European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) CO₂ price started to bite in 2019, hitting a high of Euro28/t in August 2019 and plant closures have been blamed on it. The rhetoric from Ursula von der Leyen, the new president of the European Commission, has been bullish on climate legislation and the agitation of Greta Thunberg internationally and groups like Extinction Rebellion has kept the issue in the press. Cembureau, the European Cement Association, is keen to promote the industry’s sustainability credentials but it is concerned that aspects of the proposed deal will create ‘uncertainty and risks.’ Get it wrong and problems like the incoming ban on refuse-derived fuel (RDF) imports into the Netherlands may proliferate. What the Green Deal ends up as could influence the European cement industry for decades.

The managed march of China

Last’s week article on a price spike in Henan province illustrated the tension in China between markets and government intervention. It looks like this was driven by an increase in infrastructure spending with cement sales starting to rise. Cement production growth has also picked up in most provinces in the first three quarters of 2019. This follows a slow fall in cement sales over the last five years as state measures such as consolidation and peak shifting have been implemented. The government dominates the Chinese market and this extends west, as waste importers have previously found out to their cost.

Meanwhile, the Chinese industry has continued to grow internationally. Rather than buying existing assets it has tended to build its own plants, often in joint ventures with junior local partners. LafargeHolcim may have left Indonesia in 2018 but perhaps the real story was Anhui Conch's becoming the country's third biggest producer by local capacity. Coupled with the Chinese dominance in the supplier market this has meant that most new plant projects around the world are either being built by a Chinese company or supplied by one.

India consolidates but watches dust levels

Consolidation has been the continued theme in the world's second largest cement industry, with the auction for Emami Cement and UltraTech Cement’s acquisition of Century Textiles and Industries. Notably, UltraTech Cement has decided to focus its attention on only India despite the overseas assets it acquired previously. Growth in cement sales in the second half of 2019 has slowed and capacity utilisation rates remain low. Indian press reports that CRH is considering selling up. Together with the country's low per capita cement consumption this suggests a continued trend for consolidation for the time being.

Environmental regulations may also play a part in rationalising the local industry, as has already happened in China. The Indian government considered banning petcoke imports in 2018 in an attempt to decrease air pollution. Later, in mid-2019, a pilot emissions trading scheme (ETS) for particulate matter (PM) was launched in Surat, Gujarat. At the same time the state pollution boards have been getting tough with producers for breaching their limits.

Steady growth in the US

The US market has been a dependable one over the last year, generally propping up the balance sheets of the multinational producers. Cement shipments grew in the first eight months of the year with increases reported in the North-Eastern and Southern regions. Imports also mounted as the US-China trade war benefitted Turkey and Mexico at the expense of China. Alongside this a modest trade in cement plants has been going on with upgrades also underway. Ed Sullivan at the Portland Cement Association forecasts slowing growth in the early 2020s but he doesn’t think a recession is coming anytime soon.

Mixed picture in Latin America

There have been winners and losers south of the Rio Grande in 2019. Mexico was struggling with lower government infrastructure spending hitting cement sales volumes in the first half of the year although US threats to block exports haven’t come to pass so far. Far to the south Argentina’s economy has been holding the cement industry back leading to a 7% fall in cement sales in the first 11 months of the year. Both of these countries’ travails pale in comparison to Venezuela’s estimated capacity utilisation of just 12.5%. There have been bright spots in the region though with Brazil’s gradual return to growth in 2019. The November 2019 figures suggest sales growth of just under 4% for the year. Peru, meanwhile, continues to shine with continued production and sales growth.

North and south divide in Africa and the Middle East

The divide between the Middle East and North African (MENA) and Sub-Saharan regions has grown starker as more MENA countries have become cement exporters, particularly in North Africa. The economy in Turkey has held back the industry there and the sector has pivoted to exports, Egypt remains beset by overcapacity and Saudi Arabian producers have continued to renew their clinker export licences.

South of the Sahara key countries, including Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa, have suffered from poor sales due to a variety of reasons, including competition and the local economies. Other countries with smaller cement industries have continued to propose and build new plants as the race to reduce the price of cement in the interior drives change.

Changes in shipping regulations

One of the warning signs that flashed up at the CemProspects conference this year was the uncertainty surrounding the new International Maritime Organistaion (IMO) 2020 environmental regulations for shipping. A meeting of commodity traders for fuels for the cement industry would be expected to be wary of this kind of thing. Their job is to minimise the risk of fluctuating fuel prices for their employers after all. Yet, given that the global cement industry produces too much cement, this has implications for the clinker and cement traders too. This could potentially affect the price of fuels, input materials and clinker if shipping patterns change. Ultimately, IMO 2020 comes down to enforcement but already ship operators have to decide whether and when to act.

Do androids dream of working in cement plants?

There’s a been a steady drip of digitisation stories in the sector news this year, from LafargeHolcim’s Industry 4.0 plan to Cemex’s various initiatives and more. At present the question appears to be: how far can Industry 4.0 / internet of things style developments go in a heavy industrial setting like cement? Will it just manage discrete parts of the process such as logistics and mills or could it end up controlling larger parts of the process? Work by companies like Petuum show that autonomous plant operation is happening but it’s still very uncertain whether the machines will replace us all in the 2020s.

On that cheery note - enjoy the winter break if you have one.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 8 January 2020

China: The China Building Materials Federation has released plans to cut cement production capacity by 70Mt in 2019 as part of its efforts to reduce air pollution and increase industry efficiency through consolidation. Ideally the federation’s work plan wants the largest 50 national producers to cut all production lines with a capacity below 2000t/day and tp upgrade old technology on the remaining lines, according to Yicai Global. Typically larger cement production lines in the country manufacture 5000 – 7000t/day.

China produced 2.2Bnt of cement in 2018. The new work plan will order all cement companies to shut down production lines producing below 2000t/day in areas where pollution is high. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in northern China has been identified as one of these areas. The scheme also encourages industry consolidation, aiming to bring over 60% of national production to the top 10 cement makers, and wants to eliminate poor-quality cement products so that they make up less than half of all cement made. It wants to use mergers and restructuring to do this and it supports integration through cross shareholdings and asset exchanges.

China: Asia Cement (China) said that its profit attributable to owners for the six months that ended on 30 June 2018 surged by a factor of 10.7 to reach US$139.3m compared to the same period of 2017. Revenue amounted to US$718.8m, an increase of 47% from a year earlier.

Meanwhile, China Resources Cement (CRC) announced that its net profit for the first six months of 2018 was US$2.0bn, a rise of 145.5% year-on-year. CRC’s turnover amounted to US$2.36bn, an increase of 40.4% from a year earlier.

The Chinese government has once again reiterated that it will continue to strictly prohibit cement companies from adding new capacity, despite improving profits. Years of efforts to cut excess capacity in the sector have helped to improve the industry's profits, but signs are emerging that some factories are increasing new capacity, according to Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which released a joint statement with the state economic planning agency. It said that expansion projects to produce more cement, won't be approved. In addition, factories' plans to replace out-dated capacity with new capacity must comply with government rules.