Displaying items by tag: Consumption

Peru: Grupo Gloria subsidiary Yura says that it is contemplating a cement production capacity expansion. The producer says that process optimisation across its Arequipa and Southern Peruvian cement footprint might go some way towards achieving the envisioned growth. It added that any such projects would go hand in hand with a reform of its customer service practices. Yura is also evaluating possible new limestone mining projects at Pampas del Pongo and Zafranal, and an expansion of its lime production.

DF Sud News has reported that Yura expects to increase its Peruvian cement deliveries by 8 – 10% year-on-year in 2022. Its cement, concrete and lime director for Peru, Chile and Bolivia, Julio Cáceres, forecasts that Peru’s construction demand will continue to grow at twice the rate of gross domestic product. He acknowledged that the company’s 2023 results will likely reflect the country’s expected muted growth compared to 2022. Cáceres said that US$700m-worth of private investment across 30 residential projects in Arequipa is currently suspended, pending the publication of the city’s revised metropolitan development plan.

Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote was spotted attending the inauguration ceremony of Kenyan President William Ruto earlier in September 2022. This is relevant because Dangote’s cement company previously announced plans in 2016 to build two 1.5Mt/yr plants in Kenya, near Nairobi and Mombasa respectively. They were intended to become operational by 2021. Unfortunately, Dangote himself allegedly described Kenya as being more corrupt than Nigeria to Kenyan broadcast journalist Jeff Koinange a few years later and nothing more happened. Back in 2014 Ruto visited Dangote Cement’s Obajana plant in Kogi state in Nigeria when the politician was the Deputy President of Kenya. Dangote’s attendance at the presidential inauguration this month suggests at the very least that his relationship with Ruto remains active. Maybe more news on those planned plants will follow.

Graph 1: Cement in Kenya, 2018 – June 2022. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

The reason why the owner of Africa’s largest cement company might be interested in the Kenyan market can be seen in its latest cement production figures. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that production for the first half of 2022 grew by 20% year-on-year to 4.95Mt in the first half of 2022, from 4.12Mt in the same period in 2021. Cement production was broadly similar in 2018 and 2019 at around 6Mt. It then increased by 25% to 9.25Mt in 2021 from 7.41Mt in 2020. On a rolling annual basis, production picked up at the start of 2020 and has risen consistently since then each month, peaking at over 10Mt in May 2022.

However, the elections in August 2022 probably slowed this growth trend, despite being much more peaceful than those in 2007, although the KNBS is yet to release the data. Bamburi Cement said in its outlook for the second half of 2022 that it expected markets to recover after the ballot. The subsidiary of Holcim reported increasing turnover in the first half of 2022, due to mounting sales volumes and price rises, but its profit fell sharply. It blamed this on fuel and logistics inflation, growing clinker import costs as well as negative currency exchange effects.

That last point about imported clinker is worth noting given that a government report in late 2021 found that the country had a clinker shortage of up to 3.3Mt/yr. Yet, the KNBS data in recent years shows that cement production and consumption are broadly similar, suggesting that the shortfall in clinker is being imported. The report added that 59% of the imported clinker originated from Egypt, tariff free, due to a free trade agreement. Local producers were reported to have been operating at a 65% capacity utilisation rate. Egypt and the UAE accounted for most of the imported clinker followed by Saudi Arabia. An interview in the Standard newspaper at this time with Bamburi Cement’s managing director Seddiq Hassani revealed that, despite locally produced clinker being cheaper than imported clinker, some producers were reluctant to hand control of a key input material over to their local competitors. Other producers, predictably, were trying to persuade the government to raise the duty on imports of clinker from 10% to 25%. Tariff discussions have continued in 2022.

So far in 2022 the other big stories in the sector have included Bamburi Cement’s plans to build two solar power plants and a major repair to the kiln shell at East Africa Portland Cement’s (EAPCC) Athi River cement plant. The solar plants will be built next to Bamburi Cement’s integrated Mombasa plant and its Nairobi grinding plant. Once operational in 2023 they are anticipated to supply up to 40% of the cement producer’s total power supply. Devki Group, the owner of National Cement, also announced plans in August 2022 to set up a wind farm near Mombasa. However, this seems more like an attempt to diversify the group into electricity production rather than to supply its own plant near Nairobi. EAPCC’s upgrade project has completed this week after about a month and half of work. It is intended to increase the plant’s cement production by 50%.

Cement production started in rise in 2020 but the Covid-19 pandemic may have constrained this. Production (and consumption) then jumped up in 2021 and looks set to do similar in 2022 bar a possible blip from the elections in August 2022. This is despite the global market issues arising from the end of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. These may be uncertain times but the fundamentals for the Kenyan cement market look positive despite rising end prices. Unsurprisingly, it looks likely that Dangote Cement remains keen to extend its business to Kenya.

Pakistan: Cherat Cement expects cement consumption in Pakistan to fall by 3 – 4% year-on-year in the 2023 financial year, which will end on 30 June 2023. Amid the general decline, the company foresees a slight rise in areas devastated by recent flooding with the onset of repair and rebuilding works during the second half of the financial year. Exports are expected to fall by 20%, with prices remaining level while costs increase due to the high price of imported coal.

Pakistan Business News has reported that Cherat Cement is reappraising the investment cost and planned commercial operation date of its upcoming 8000 – 9000t/day new cement plant. It previously valued the project at US$158 – 173m.

Vietnam: Cement producers and exporters will pay an additional 5 – 10% tariff on their exports of cement and clinker from 1 January 2023. Viet Nam News has reported that the move aims to bring down local cement prices by increasing supply in the country. These have risen over the past six months, while export prices have remained level.

The Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA) says that its members are struggling to increase exports in a highly competitive export market. In the six months up to the end of August 2022, China, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Taiwan all reduced their imports of Vietnamese cement. The decline included a ‘substantial’ reduction of imports by China and the Philippines. Exporters faced logistical difficulties in shipping cement to the Philippines, while China’s consumption dropped due to new Covid-19 restrictions and low residential construction activity there.

The VNCA forecasts cement production of 108Mt in 2022, against a national demand of 65Mt. It projected that a series of infrastructure projects will bolster domestic consumption between 2022 and 2025.

Morocco: LafargeHolcim Maroc’s sales were US$377m in the first half of 2022, consistent with its first-half 2021 sales, according to the L’Economiste newspaper. In the second quarter of 2022, the producer’s sales fell by 7% year-on-year to US$181m. It attributed this to a drop in its cement sales volumes, amid a national decline in demand of 10% year-on-year during the quarter. During the first half of 2022, Moroccan cement demand declined by 4.5% year-on-year. LafargeHolcim Maroc said that this was the result of global economic factors.

The producer’s net debt was US$590m on 30 June 2022, up by 5% year-on-year.

Botswana: Cheetah Cement Botswana aims to achieve a cement production capacity of 900,000t/yr by June 2023. Cheetah Cement Botswana currently has a capacity of 36,000t/yr since commissioning its US$40m Francistown cement plant in February 2022. Botswana Investment and Trade Centre CEO Keletsositse Olebile said that the expansion will create 200 new direct jobs.

Xinhua News has reported that the move will turn Botswana, which consumes 620,000t/yr of cement, into a regional cement exporter and reduce its net imports by US$90m/yr.

India: 30% of plants in India’s 78GW captive power plant network have temporarily closed due to high coal prices. 40GW-worth of capacity (55%) is coal-fired, with an annual consumption of 200Mt/yr. The Business Standard newspaper has reported that total Indian coal imports fell by 10% to 23.8Mt in July 2021 from 26.3Mt in June 2021. Deliveries of coal to non-power sector consumers fell by 33% year-on-year at the beginning of August 2021. The Indian Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA) and nine other national industry associations have contacted the government to urge the formation of policies for the equitable distribution of available coal.

India Cements has imported two shipments of Russian coal for use in cement production. The company’s power and fuel costs rose by 54% year-on-year in the first quarter of its 2023 financial year, which began on 1 April 2022. Its vice-chair and managing director Narayanaswami Srinivasan said “Most of our plants have coal-based captive power generation. The cost of captive generation is now more than the grid cost. Hence, we shut down all captive power units and resorted to grid power.”

Poland: Poland produced 9.3Mt of cement in the first half of 2022, up by 8.6% year-on-year from the same period in 2021. The Polish Association of Cement Manufacturers (SPC) recorded an 11% increase in national cement consumption to 6.8Mt during the reporting period. The Institute of Economic Forecasts and Analyses has estimated that full-year demand will reach 20Mt in 2022.

Vietnam: Xuan Tanh Cement plans to commission its upcoming 4.5Mt/yr Ha Nam cement plant in October 2022. Viêt Nam News has reported that the new plant will bring Ha Nam province’s cement capacity to 10Mt/yr.

Vietnam consumed approximately 63.5Mt of cement in 2021.

Sri Lanka: Tokyo Cement Group increased its turnover to US$45.2m in the first quarter of it 2023 financial year, up by 53% year-on-year from first-quarter 2022 financial year levels. A shortage of imported raw materials and the country’s on-going fuel crisis hampered local cement demand. The group’s cement sales volumes declined during the quarter, while its cost of sales increased by 24% year-on-year. ‘Steep’ currency depreciation compounded the effects of the increase in expenses. Nonetheless, the company recorded a profit of US$1.48m.

The producer said “Tokyo Cement has taken many proactive measures to minimise the impact of economic downturn on the group's performance. Anticipating a challenging environment, the group has reforecasted demand, rescheduled sourcing and production plans, and adjusted cash flows accordingly. The group has deployed drastic cost saving measures, streamlined operations, and postponed capital expenditure. While the short to medium term economic landscape remains uncertain, Tokyo Cement has a proven track record of resilience and resurgence, and is committed to rebuilding the nation, stronger than ever before.”