Displaying items by tag: Export

FLSmidth revealed this week that Cooperativa Boliviana de Cemento, Industrias y Servicios (COBOCE) has ordered a cement mill for its Irpa Irpa plant near Cochabamba. The Danish engineering firm was pleased to note that with the sale it has now delivered mills to three of the country’s five producers. Other recent orders include supplying an OK 36-4 mill to Sociedad Boliviana de Cemento’s (SOBOCE) Viacha cement plant, announced in early 2016, and a sale of a complete integrated production line at Sucre to Fábrica Nacional de Cemento (FANCESA) in late 2016.

These order reveal slow but steady growth in the local industry in recent years. However, a slowdown so far in 2017 suggests that the market is changing. National Institute of Statistics of Bolivia (INE) data shows that sales in the local market broke down in 2016 into a 42% sales share for SOBOCE, 25% for FANCESA, 19% for COBOCE, 8% for Yura and 6% for Itacamba. This changed somewhat in the first quarter of 2017 with a reduction in the sales of SOBOCE and Yura. Sales in the country are concentrated in the departments of Chuquisca, La Paz and Cochabamba, which held 70% of cement sales in 2016.

Graph 1: Cement production and sales in Bolivia, 2012 – 2017. Source: National Institute of Statistics of Bolivia.

Annual cement sales in Bolivia have been growing consistently since 2001. Financial services company Pacific Credit Rating placed average annual sales growth at 7.72% from 1998 to 2016. In 2016 sales reached 3.7Mt. Graph 1 shows a continuation of this trend although the first half of 2017 has been weaker than 2016. COBOCE blamed the reverse in 2017 on reduced local government spending on infrastructure projects and poor weather. The producer was expecting sales to grow by 6 – 8% as a whole for 2017. However, on the basis of the figures for July and August 2017 this is not looking likely. Sales for the two months dropped by 2.5% year-on-year to 0.64Mt. A representative of FANCESA later blamed the market change on a reduction in sales supporting the construction of tall buildings in the country’s key markets as customers switched to buying ‘random’ volumes.

Sure enough local producers have started to complain about foreign exporters damaging their trade. A union head in Chuquisaca called for cement and clinker imports by Yura from Peru to be banned and concerns have been raised about concessions offered to Itacamba, a joint venture between Spain’s Cementos Molins, Brazil’s Votorantim Cement and Camba Cement. President Evo Morales inaugurated this company’s new plant in Yacuses, Santa Cruz in early 2017. The niggles about foreign exports to Bolivia seem counter-intuitive given that the country is landlocked and it has the world’s highest capital city above sea level. Usually, markets with nearby ports are most at risk from clinker and cement imports. Yet, Itacamba was planning exports to Argentina in November so the import and export markets via road and river links can’t be discounted.

Cement sales may be down so far in 2017 but overall the wider economy appears to be in rude health. After a strong decade of growth the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate has fallen each year since 2014, but it was still 4.3% in 2016, one of the highest in South America. If that kind of growth persists it seems unlikely that the cement industry will have trouble for long.

Pakistan: According to the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) Pakistan’s cement exports continued to decline in October 2017. Exports fell by 14.6% month-on-month to 443,000t, due in part to higher domestic cement consumption. However the APCMA stated that falling exports were a concern while some Pakistani cement capacity remains idle.

The largest fall in exports was via sea, rather than overland exports to immediate neighbours. This was despite the northern part of the country, closest to India and Afghanistan, consuming 3.14Mt of cement. This is the first time that the region has consumed more than 3Mt in a single month. In October 2016 the north of Pakistan consumed 2.5Mt of cement. In the south, demand also increased from 0.52Mt in October 2016 to 0.63Mt in October 2017.

Argentina/Bolivia: Bolivia’s Itacamba is preparing to send a second batch of cement to Argentina. It sent 4000t earlier in the year and now intends to send the same amount again, according to the El Día newspaper. The company expects to export 0.16Mt of clinker with a value of US$9m in 2017. Cement exports are expected to reach a value of US$2m. Itacamba already dispatches clinker to Argentina and it has been sending both clinker and cement to Paraguay.

Uzbekistan: Akhangarancement produced 1.44Mt of cement and 1.04Mt of clinker in the first nine months of 2017. This is 1.8% (25,449t) and 2.9% (29,147t) more than in the same period of 2016. The company also increased cement shipments to final customers by 2.6% to 11.46Mt.

"The plant has consistently increased its production since the beginning of the year. Excellent results were achieved thanks to the well-coordinated work of the whole team, the effective operation of technological equipment and quality repairs," said Gennady Kulikov, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Akhangarancement. "Further implementation of measures to improve competitiveness is needed. This includes improving product quality, introducing best solutions and practices, improving labour productivity and minimising costs to reduce product prices."

Arabian Cement Company had some choice words for a contractor this week when it blamed it in a bourse statement for a delay for a new mill at its Rabigh plant. The project has been pushed back to the third quarter of 2018 from the fourth quarter of 2017. The second phase of the plan, to build a new clinker production line, has also been placed under review.

The contractor may have given Arabian Cement an excuse to put a question mark over its new line, but the market reality has been stark. Also this week, Saudi Cement Company reported that its net profit had fallen by 51.5% year-on-year, to US$92.3m in the first nine months of 2017 compared to US$190.4m in the previous period. It blamed falling sales.

Graph 1: Cement sales (Mt) by quarter in Saudi Arabia, 2015 to September 2017. Source: Yamama Cement.

As Graph 1 shows, cement sales volumes in Saudi Arabia have been dropping since 2015. Sales fell by 5.3% year-on-year to 10.5Mt in the third quarter of 2017 from 10.9Mt in the same period in 2016. Year to date figures show a worse trend with a drop of 17.4% to 35.2Mt in the first nine months of 2017 compared to 42.7Mt in the same period in 2016. This decline has accelerated compared to a decrease of 5.4% from 45.1Mt in 2015 for the first three quarters.

Analyst Al Rajhi Capital provided some context to this situation in its September 2017 report on the August 2017 sales figures. It reported particularly steep declines in cement sales volumes of over 35% for Northern Cement, Najran cement and Hail Cement for the first eight months of the year. However, some producers - including City, Qassim, Yanbu and Al Safwa - did manage modest gains. Overall though the financial services company did not expect any pickup for the second half of 2017.

Last time this column covered the kingdom’s cement industry in early 2016 it asked when the government was going to relieve the export ban. Cement production was high, inventory was pilling up and infrastructure spending was falling. The ban was subsequently lifted but commentators worried that it would be too restrictive to have much effect due to tariffs and volume restrictions. A steady stream of cement producers has applied for export licences since then, but exports have not alleviated the situation. With inventory remaining high for the producers, current export policy failing to help and the local construction market subdued, it is unlikely that anything is going to change soon for the local cement industry. In fact it may even get worse if the government decides to revise its energy price policy later in 2017 or in early 2018, adding to the input cost burden of the producers.

Talk of market consolidation in this kind of market environment seems inevitable. This is exactly what happened earlier in the month when Jihad Al Rashid, the head of the Saudi National Committee for Cement Companies, said to local press that the local market only needed four large cement producers rather than the 17 companies it has at present. The question at this stage seems to be when, rather than if, will this process start.

Vietnam: Vietnam sold 59.3Mt of cement in the first nine months of 2017, a rise of 6% compared to the same period of 2016. The country has now fulfilled 74.1% of its whole-year plan, according to the Ministry of Construction. 45.3Mt of cement was sold domestically, a 4% rise year-on-year, while 14.0Mt of cement was exported.

In September 2017, the country’s cement sales rose by 9.4% compared to August 2017 to 6.7Mt, comprising 5.2Mt of domestic sales and 1.5Mt of exports. As of September 2017, Vietnam had 3.0Mt of cement and clinker inventory, most of which is clinker.

At present, Vietnam’s cement capacity is 86Mt/yr but domestic demand is estimated at 60Mt/yr, a surplus of 26Mt/yr, according to the Vietnam National Cement Association (VCNA).

Pakistan: Cement sales rose by 15% year-on-year to 10.3Mt in the first quarter of the local financial year that ended in September 2017 from 9Mt in the same period in 2016. However, the export part of this figure fell by 16.7% to 1.29Mt, according to the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA). Exports fell faster in the south of the country, where the country’s ports are based, with a significant drop in seaborne trade.

“Robust construction activities within the country are supporting the cement sector, but it is still sitting on some idle capacity that could be exported through government facilitations like sharing the transport cost,” said the APCMA to the Nation newspaper. It added that the government should cut duties on cement to encourage the residential sector.

Ethiopia: Ethiopia earned US$17.3m from exports of 0.2Mt of cement exports in its latest financial year that ended on 7 July 2017. The Chemical and Construction Input Industry Development Institute added that the country’s cement industry is planning to reach a production capacity of 27Mt/yr by the end of the Second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP-II) in the 2019 – 2020 year, according to the Walta Information and Public Relations Centre.

Saudi Arabia: The Saudi Industrial Exports Company (SIEC) has signed a memorandum of understanding with Al Jouf Cement Company to export its products internationally. The Saudi government lifted a ban on exporting cement in 2016.

Vietnam: The Vietnam Building Material Association estimates cement sales rose by 5% year-on-year to 59Mt in the first nine months of 2017. This represented 74% of its annual target, according to the Việt Nam News newspaper. 45Mt of cement was sold domestically, an increase of 4%, and 14Mt was exported. Cement production capacity is 86Mt/yr but demand is estimated at 60Mt/yr. The country is predicted to face a surplus of 26Mt in 2017, according to the Vietnam Cement Association.