Displaying items by tag: Government

Nepal: A report by the Nepal Rastra Bank has estimated that Nepal will require 26Mt/yr of cement by the 2024 – 25 financial year due to large-scale infrastructure projects. However, current production before the coronavirus pandemic was around 7.5Mt/yr despite the country’s production capacity of 15Mt/yr, according to the Kathmandu Post newspaper. Domestic consumption is 9Mt with around 1.5Mt of demand supplied from imports, mainly from India. The report added that most of the large projects in Nepal used cement imported from India due to issues with certification, consistent quality and the inability of local producers to offer bulk supply. In 2019 the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Supplies forecast that the country’s cement production capacity could increase to 20Mt/yr by the end of the 2023 – 24 year.

Dhruba Raj Thapa, president of the Cement Manufacturers Association of Nepal, said that the data in the report by the bank contained errors. He pointed out that the country has a cement production capacity of 22Mt/yr and that it is already self-sufficient in the commodity. He also refuted the claims that infrastructure projects prefer imported cement.

Bangladesh: Cement producers are warning of price rises due to a ‘significant’ rise in international freight rates. The Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association (BCMA) has expressed concern about the situation, according to the New Nation newspaper. Freight rates to transport clinker from Indonesia, Vietnam or the Middle-East have increased by up to 30% in the last few months. The BCMA has called on the government to cut import duties to keep consumer prices low.

Iran: Hossein Modares Khyabani, the former head of the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade, has called for cement to be traded on the Mercantile Exchange, a commodities exchange based in Tehran. He hoped that the move would enable cement producers to upgrade plants and increase exports, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency. The aim is to have producers generate mhigher profits and build infrastructure development.

Local cement production grew by 13% year-on-year to 68Mt in the Iranian calendar year to March 2021. However, gas, electricity and transportation costs all grew significantly during the period.

India: Cement demand will drop by an estimated 20% year-on-year in the three months up to 30 June 2021, the first quarter of the 2022 financial year in India. Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has attributed the projected decrease to a significant drop in rural housing’s bagged cement uptake due to state governments’ coronavirus lockdowns, which prevent retailers from opening. The Hindu newspaper has reported that this type of construction previously generated one third of demand. Segments such as urban housing, commercial construction and infrastructure will be less affected, according to the forecast.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not yet implemented a national lockdown in response to the country’s second wave of coronavirus. New cases numbered 264,000 on 17 May 2021, down by 20% week-on-week from 330,000 on 10 May 2021.

Ivory Coast: The Ministry of Commerce and Industry has set caps for the ex-factory and retail price of cement. Maximum prices have been designated for 32.5 and 42.5 grades of Ordinary Portland Cement in both urban and rural areas, according to the Agence de Presse Africaine. The ministry said that arrangements had been made with producers to keep the market supplied. It added that failure to comply with the designated prices would lead to penalties.

Philippines: The Philippine cement industry has met some of its investment commitments set out in the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI)’s adjustment plans for its imposition of safeguard measures against imported cement. The Manila Bulletin newspaper has reported that producers have invested around US$250m in making their product more competitive for local buyers although the industry has deferred US$1.54bn-worth of further agreed-upon spending to before 2025. The Tariff Commission (TC) said that companies’ reasons for delaying the completion of their adjustment commitments were Covid-19-led disruptions to production, transport and services. The DTI set out the commitments in the form of 20 plans, of which the industry has now fully implemented 12. The TC said that the sector is ‘determined’ to meet the remaining goals. It added that the damaging impacts of the coronavirus outbreak were lessened by the previous implementation of tariffs, which rose to US$0.20/bag in December 2020. The commission said "To date, it can be concluded that the intervention was timely and proper, as it has provided breathing space for the domestic industry and has mainly contributed to increasing the industry's market competitiveness."

India: Shree Cement has received approval from the state government of Karnataka for its planned US$81.5m Doddaballapur cement grinding and bagging plant. The Hindu newspaper has reported that, when operational, the plant will employ 300 local people.

Reporting from Egypt this week suggests that the government may be finally taking action to aid the country’s beleaguered cement sector. Sources quoted by Reuters indicate that a production cut of at least 14% has been proposed. One of the cement industry sources broke it down into a 10.5% baseline reduction with a further 3.7% reduction per production line at a cement plant with an additional cut of 0.7% per year of operation. The Ministry of Trade and Industry has declined to comment on the story.

Graph 1: Cement production and capacity utilisation in Egypt. Source: Cement Division of the Building Materials Chamber of the Federation of Egyptian Industries.

Graph 1 above shows the key problem facing the sector: cement production has fallen each year since 2016. Added to this, local capacity utilisation took a knock when the 13Mt/yr government/army-run El-Arish Cement plant at Beni Suef opened in 2018. Before it opened the natural utilisation rate was around 80%. By 2020 it had sunk to 60%.

The coronavirus pandemic was another problem that the building materials market didn’t need and the last time this column covered Egypt (GCW 475), HeidelbergCement was restructuring its local subsidiaries in the country. Most producers were holding on for better days in the future but hoping for some form of government intervention such as production limits or an export subsidy programme. Meanwhile, analysts have been waiting for divestments. However, the prospect of the situation becoming worse was also present, in the guise of the Egyptian Cement Group’s new integrated 2Mt/yr plant, scheduled to open at Sohag later in 2021. Since then there’s not been much of a change until now.

Some very rough calculations by Global Cement suggest that the alleged government measures could have created an artificial utilisation rate of 78% in 2020 before the age of the plants was taken into account. For example, the El-Arish Cement plant with its six production lines would potentially see its production cut by around 33% and capped at 8.7Mt/yr. In theory a measure like this could better share out the market between the smaller producers or those with less market share. However, how this would play out with actual plant running costs or existing market share is unknown, although, as mentioned above, some of the multinational producers have been publicly calling out for these kinds of controls.

Playing around with the proposed caps could potentially create some absurd situations. For example, if a single line plant had been running for over 120 years (!) then it wouldn’t be allowed to produce any cement at all. It is lucky then that the earliest plant in the country opened in 1911 and it’s likely long gone. It’s a silly example, but the point is, if production limits do come in, there are likely to be winners and losers. The question for the local producers then is whether a system like this would be better than the current situation.

Egypt: The Egyptian government has reportedly proposed that cement companies cap production by at least 14%. Multiple sources quoted by Reuters reveal that a formula was discussed in April 2021 proposing that cement plants cut production by a base amount of 10.5%. An additional cut of 3.7% would then be made for each production line a plant has and another 0.65% for each year they have been in operation. However, it is unclear how the age of a plant or production line would be determined. The Ministry of Trade and Industry has not commented on the story.

The measures have been suggested in order to help the sector cope with falling consumption and production overcapacity. Cement sales fell by 5% year-on-year to 41.7Mt in 2020 from 43.8Mt in 2019. However, two of the cement executives quoted said that the proposed cuts seemed unfair on multinational companies like their own that had older plants.

Ghana: Dzata Cement, a 1.2Mt/yr bagging plant based in Tema, plans to start commercial production by June 2021. The unit cost US$100m and includes a two line bagging and packaging equipment supplied by Germany-based Haver & Boecker, according to the Ghana News Agency. It will use imported cement. Proposed later phases at the site will see an upgrade in bagging operations to 2.4Mt/yr and the eventual installation of two 3Mt/yr vertical roller mills. As a safeguard against surges of cement imports the government has also introduced new export and import legislation requiring licenses for imports from outside the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) region.

The plant’s founder Ibrahim Mahama is the brother of former Ghanian president John Dramani Mahama. In November 2020 the Ghana News Agency reported that Kofi Amoabeng, the former chief executive officer of UT Bank, said that loans made to companies including Dzata Cement had contributed to the bank being declared insolvent in 2017.