Displaying items by tag: Import

Germany: Data from the German Cement Works Association (VDZ) shows that cement consumption rose slightly to 29Mt in 2018. Imports were 1.5Mt and exports rose by 1.5% year-on-year to 6.3Mt. The association says that this shows the industry is in a stable phase that is expected to continue in 2019 and 2020.

"There has been an upward trend in the German cement market for four years now, thanks in particular to the positive development in the apartment block sector," said VDZ president Christian Knell. He added that annual growth in consumption had slowed but that this was ‘hardly surprising’ given the ‘tight’ capacities along the construction value chain.

Ukraine: Antidumping duties on clinker and Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) from Russia, Belarus and Moldova introduced by Ukraine in mid-2019 have benefitted local producers. Mykola Kruts, the chairman of the board of Ivano-Frankivskcement, said that his company has been operating at a 90% capacity utilisation rate, according to Interfax-Ukraine.

South Africa: South Africa imported 0.1Mt of cement in July 2019, 293% more than in July 2018. The Algeria Press Service has reported the value of July 2019’s imports as US$4.85m. This represents a decrease from the June 2019 figure of US$6.73 of 28%. Vietnam continues to be the main contributor to the June and Julyimport figures, with Pakistan notably absent in both months. In the record seven months to 31 July 2019, South Africa imported 0.6Mt of cement at a total cost of US$29.6m.

Njobo Lekula, managing director of PPC, has stated that cement prices are ‘critically’ low for domestic producers, whose 18Mt/yr capacity faces a domestic demand of 13Mt/yr. In August 2019, South Africa’s major cement producers applied to South Africa’s International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) for a tightening of cement standards, which may take the form of a blanket tariff on imports.

The news from Mali this week is that a new cement grinding plant is in the works. Ciments et Matériaux du Mali plans to build a 0.5Mt/yr plant near Bamako. Work on the US$34m project is set to start in October 2019 although there has been no word on the equipment supplier. The project is a long-standing one from France’s Vicat.

A new plant is probably very welcome following the last six months in the local market. Prices spiked by a third in May 2019, leading local producer Diamond Cement Mali to arrange a press conference to defend itself. Director Ibrahima Dibo explained that the company had fixed its prices in conjunction with the government at its units at Astro and Dio Gare since 2012. Instead, he blamed importers and traders for the situation, as well as low import rates from Senegal and Ivory Coast. The company proposed that it tackle the situation by importing more cement from one of its plants in Takoradi in Ghana and then transporting it into Mali via Dakar in Senegal. Although it noted that it would need permission from the government to do this.

The country has also been targeted by Nigeria’s Dangote Cement for several years. Back in 2016 the Nigerian cement producer was considering building a 1.5Mt/yr grinding plant. It also wanted to build a second production line at its Pout plant near Dakar in Senegal to export clinker specifically to Mali. It has since scaled back its expansion plans as the Nigerian economy entered a recession but in its 2018 annual report it noted that it had exported 0.43Mt of cement from Senegal and that most of this had gone to Mali, with plans to further increase exports in 2019.

At present Mali has three main grinding plants. Two are run by Diamond Cement and the third by Ciments de l'Afrique (CIMAF). An integrated plant at Guinbané, Diéma in the Kayes region was announced in late 2016 when the government signed a memorandum of understanding with Gaia Equity, a private equity company. This project was going to be built by China’s Sinoma.

Figure 1: Distribution of cement prices in Africa and Location of Plants 2015. Source: World Bank / ECDPM.

The status of that last project is unknown since there has been little news on it since. However, Figure 1 above shows why a private equity firm might sense opportunity. It’s out of date as various countries have become self-sufficient and we’ve covered this plenty of times before but the graphic from the World Bank really brings home the message that moving cement overland is uneconomical. This is mirrored by the mounting price of cement in Mali earlier this year. Africa has been described as the last great cement frontier and Mali is on the frontline.

Philippines: The September 2019 customs duty of US$4.81/t on imported cement is in danger of disrupting a Philippine Competition Commission (PCC) probe. The Philippine Star has reported that the PCC is conducting an investigation into domestic cement producers’ alleged anticompetetiveness following an accusation by a Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) official in 2017 that a ‘cartel’ of producers was maintaining artificially high pricing and spreading of misinformation about the quality of imported products. PCC chair Arsenio Balisacan has noted the danger of ‘having an ongoing investigation and introducing a policy which can influence the outcome of that investigation.’

Napoleon Co, chairman of the Philippine Cement Importers Association (PCIA), has stated that cement traders will keep on importing unless the local cement sector produces more. He said that foreign producers’ Philippine sales were driven not by their lower prices but by the domestic industry’s inability to fulfill the country’s 28Mt/yr demand.

Philippines: The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) has introduced a customs duty on imported cement of US$4.81/t. The Manila Times reports that the measure is subject to annual review and will be in place for three years, decreasing by US$0.48/yr.

The government previously imposed a provisional tariff of US$4.02/t, in spite of protests from Vietnam that any executive action would be in contravention of World Trade Organisation rules. Philippine law allows for the imposition of such measures where an appointed advisory body has determined that increased imports ‘threaten to substantially cause injury to the domestic industry.’

The advisory body in question is the Tariff Commission, who in August 2019 recommended a tariff of US$5.68/t. Secretary of Trade and Industry Ramón López stated that the figure aims to address the threat with minimal impact on buyers. Cement prices in the country hit a low in early January 2019 of US$98.6/t, rising to US$108.25/t after the imposition of the provisional tariff.

Vietnamese producers will be the hardest hit by the price hike, with 75% of the Philippines’ imported cement originating in Vietnam. Asian Review reports that a further 18% comes from neighbouring China and 8% from Thailand.

Madagascar: LafargeHolcim has lobbied for cement homologisation norms to targeting importers. Chief Executive Officer François de Lesquen said that the company does not fear competition but wants a level playing field.

LafargeHolcim owns 90% and 66% respectively of Madagascar’s Ibity and Mahajanga cement plants, representing the entirety of domestic cement production. Holcim Madagascar yesterday launched its Orimbato 42.5 cement for heavy load-bearing concretes.

Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan’s cement imports totalled US$105.6m over the six months to 30 June 2019, up by 32.3% from 2018.

Chinese investment in Uzbek domestic cement production saw two cement plants of 1.2Mt/yr and 2.4Mt/yr capacity enter development in 2018. Huaxin Cement’s Zafarabad plant is expected to become operational in December 2019, with Gansu Hengya Cement’s Kattakurgan plant also due to enter operation in the coming months.

The publication of CNBM’s financial results presents a good opportunity to take stock of the Chinese cement industry in the first half of 2019. Looking at the big picture first, cement sales rose by 5% year-on-year to 1.03Bnt in the first half of 2019 from 0.98Bnt in the same period in 2018. Graph 1 below shows the sales over the last five years since 2014. Generally, sales are decreasing each year but there has been some variation in the half-year periods.

Graph 1: Cement sales in China, 2014 – 2019. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

As the China Cement Association (CCA) pointed out in its summary for the first half of 2019, the cement industry ‘swelled in volume and price’ as industry efficiency grew but that the growth rate dropped ‘significantly’ compared in 2018. By region, as Graph 2 shows, variation can be seen between the south-east of the country where growth was slow or even fell compared to stronger performance elsewhere. Cement production increased by above 20% in Jilin, Shanxi, Shandong, Tibet and Heilongjiang and by over 10% in Hebei, Gansu, Tianjin, and Liaoning. However, it fell in Hainan, Beijing, Qinghai, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hunan, Guangdong and Ningxia. Most of these changes were attributed to either rising or falling demand for cement, except for Jilin where reduced imports from neighbouring provinces pushed up its demand. In most of these latter regions it attribute the decline to falling demand for cement.

Graph 2: Cement production growth by province in first half of 2019. Source: China Cement Association.

Other points of note from the CCA include the surge in imports to China. Imports of cement and clinker rose by 149% year-on-year to 8.97Mt in the five months from January to May 2019. Vietnam supplied 68% of this followed by 11% from Thailand. On the production side, 10 new production lines with a total capacity of 15.5Mt/yr were commissioned in the period. These were fairly scattered across nine provinces, in Shanxi, Anhui, Hubei, Fujian, Guangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, Gansu and Yunnan respectively.

Sales and profits were supported by growing demand and prices on the corporate side. CNBM’s operating income for its cement businesses grew by 16% to US$8.14bn from US$7.04bn. Its adjusted profit increased by 40% to US$2.76bn from US$1.98bn. Anhui Conch’s sales rose by 17.9% to US$2.15bn from US$2.11bn. It blamed poorer profits in the south of the country on adverse weather leading to weakened demand.

The weaker sales in the south could be seen in China Resources Cement’s (CRC) results with its turnover down by 6% to US$2.22bn from US$2.36bn. Likewise, its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) dropped by 8.5% to US$820m from US$896m. The majority of its cement plants are based in Guangxi, Guangdong and Fujian. Jidong Cement was also reported as having received US$30m in subsidies from the government during the first half of 2019 in relation to its ‘daily activities.’

As is usual for these kinds of roundups the dynamic in China is between government industrial policies, like peak shifting and pollution mitigation, and local demand and price trends. One of the latest spins on peak shifting, for example, is a rating system that is being considered to decide which companies should be subject to production limits and for how long. General cement sales are slowly falling each year but the rise of imports into the word’s biggest cement producing nation (!) mark an interesting trend. Also, it may not be connected, but lots of those provinces with falling demand so far in 2019 are those on the south coast facing the heavy clinker exporting nations of South-East Asia. Given the decisiveness with which the Chinese government dispensed with imports of waste materials under its National Sword initiative since 2017, those countries importing cement to China should beware. It could change very quickly. The Chinese cement market is never dull.

Philippines: The tariff on cement imports will not exceed US$5.68/t, the figure recommended by the Tariff Commission. Trade and Industry Secretary Ramón López has stated that the safeguard ought not cause prices to rise. The provisional safeguard duty of US$4.02/t will remain until 10th September 2019.