Displaying items by tag: India

One of the long running trends in the cement industry is that of production overcapacity. Sure enough more than a few news stories this week covered this, as various players reacted to international trade in clinker and cement. The Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association wants its government to cut import duties on clinker. Algeria’s shift from an importing cement nation to an exporting one continues.

Armenia and Afghanistan are coping with influxes of cement imports from neighbouring Iran. Pakistan’s cement exporters, who have been losing ground in Afghanistan, are once again lobbying to remove anti-dumping measures in South Africa. The argument between Hard Rock Cement and Arawak Cement in Barbados may have swung Hard Rock Cement’s way as the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) has ruled in favour of lower tariffs for imports. Last week it was reported that the Rwanda Bureau of Standards had blocked cement imports from Uganda on quality requirement grounds.

The summarised version is that all this excess clinker and cement can cause arguments and market distortions as it finds new markets. Typically, the media reports upon the negative side of this, when the representatives of national industries defend their patch and speak out about ‘quality concerns,’ potential job losses and blows to the local economy. However, it isn’t always like this as the Afghan story shows this week. Here, although the Chamber of Commerce and Industries wants to promote locally produced cement, imports are welcome and the relative merits of different sources are discussed. Ditto the situation in Bangladesh where a predominantly grinding-based industry naturally wants to cut its raw material costs.

We’ve covered clinker and cement exports more than a few times, most recently in September 2018 when the jaw-dropping scale of Vietnam’s exports in 2018 started to become clear. Yet as the continued flow of news stores this week makes clear it’s a topic that never grows old.

Graph 1: Top cement exporting countries in 2018. Source: International Trade Centre.

Looking globally raises a number of issues. First, a warning. The data in Graph 1 comes from the International Trade Centre (ITC), a comprehensive source of trade statistics. Most of its figures are in line with data from government bodies and trade associations but its export figure is around a tenth of the estimated export figure for Iran of around 13Mt for its 2018 - 2019 year. Last time this column looked at exports similar issues were noted with a discrepancy between Vietnam’s exports from the ITC compared to government data.

Iran aside, all the usual suspects are present and correct. A point of interest here is that the list is a mixture of countries that make the headlines for their exports, like Vietnam, and those that are quietly just getting on with business. Japan for example exported 10.7Mt in 2018. More telling are the changes in exports from 2017 to 2018. Exports fell in Japan, China and Spain. They rose in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan and South Korea.

Looking globally, China is the elephant in the room in this topic given its apparent massive production overcapacity. The industry here is structurally unable to export cement on the scale of other countries but, as its major companies expand internationally, this may change. Despite this China still managed to be the third biggest exporter of cement to the US in 2018 at 2Mt and the fifth biggest in the world. Yet, as the ITC data shows, its exports fell by 30% year-on-year to 9Mt in 2018.

Vietnam, Pakistan and Turkey continue to be some of the key exporting nations with production capacities rising in defiance of domestic realities. Pakistan, for example, is coming off a building boom from the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor infrastructure project and all those plants are now looking for new markets. Vietnam says it is benefitting from industry consolidation in China. Its exports grew by 55% year-on-year rise to 31.6Mt. It shipped 9.8Mt to China in 2018. Its main export markets in 2019 are expected to be the Philippines, Bangladesh, China, Taiwan and Peru. Turkey, meanwhile, struggled with general economic issues in 2018. Its cement exports fell by 6% to 7.5Mt in 2018 according to Turkish Cement Manufacturers Association data. Once again this is at odds with ITC data, which reports nearly twice as many exports.

This touches the tip of the iceberg of a big issue but while production over-capacity continues these kinds of trade arguments will endure. Vietnam, for example, may be enjoying supplying cement in China as that country scales down production. Yet, what will happen to all of those Vietnamese plants once Chinese consumption stabilises?! Similar bear traps lie in wait for the other major exports. Alongside this many of the multinational cement companies are pivoting to concrete production. This may be in recognition of the fact that in a clinker-abundant world profits should be sought elsewhere in the supply chain. A topic for another week.

For an overview of some of these themes and more read Dr Robert McCaffrey’s article ‘The Global Cement Industry in 2050’ in the May 2019 issue of Global Cement Magazine and his forthcoming keynote presentation at the 61st IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Conference 2019 at St Louis in Missouri, US.

India: Bimlendra Jha has been appointed as the managing director and chief executive officer (CEO) of Ambuja Cement, with immediate effect.

He joins the subsidiary of LafargeHolcim from Tata Steel where he has spent nearly three decades of his career. Over the past six years, he has held multiple leadership roles, including Executive Chairman Long Products Europe, Executive Director on the Board of Tata Steel Europe and CEO Tata Steel UK, looking after operations in UK, Sweden, and Canada.

He holds a B. Tech in Ceramic Engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology Varanasi and a Post Graduate Diploma in Business Management, Marketing and Finance from the Xavier School of Management Jamshedpur.

India: Gujarat Sidhee Cement has appointed Ashwani Kumar as an independent non-executive director. Kumar, aged 60 years, has worked for over 37 years in the banking sector for Allahabad Bank, Corporation Bank and Dena Bank. He holds post graduation qualifications in chemistry and is a certified associate of the Indian Institute of Bankers.

Pakistan: Local cement despatches grew by 5.9% year-on-year to 40.9Mt in 2018 from 38.6Mt in 2017. Exports increased by 42% to 5.9Mt from 4.6Mt, according to data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association. Overall, all cement despatches rose by 9.4% to 46.8Mt from 42.8Mt. By region, despatches and imports grew faster in the south of the country and exports fell by 7.8% in the north. Exports to Afghanistan fell by 12% but exports to India rose by 2% and overseas exports increased by 155%.

Research from the Global Carbon Budget (GCB) this week forecasts that fossil CO₂ emissions from the Indian cement industry will rise by 13.4% in 2018. This is in stark contrast to the smooth mood music from the Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) last week, which stated that the local industry was on track to meet its commitments towards decarbonisation. So what’s going on?

The situation is akin to the fable about the blind men and the elephant. Both the GCB and the CSI are approaching the emissions of the Indian cement industry from different directions. The GCB is using available data (including data from the CSI) to try and estimate what the CO₂ emissions are. It takes cement production data using a method adapted from a paper published by Robbie M Andrew of Norway’s CICERO Center for International Climate Research in 2018 and then it takes into account the types of cement being produced and the clinker factor. This is then converted into an estimated clinker production figure and this is then converted into a CO₂ figure.

However, the CSI meanwhile actually has direct data from its local members. At the moment these include ACC, Ambuja Cements, CRH, Dalmia Cement (Bharat), HeidelbergCement, Orient Cement, Shree Cement, UltraTech and Votorantim Cimentos. As part of the Getting the Numbers Right (GNR) database it collects production and sustainability related data from its members. However, for reasons of competition, it maintains a year gap before it reports its data. This means that the GCB can report its estimate ahead of the CSI data.

There is nothing to stop the CSI reporting its progress against its targets though. And this is exactly what it has done in India with the recent document outlining progress towards the 2030 targets from the low carbon technology roadmap (LCTR). The headline CSI metric was direct CO₂ emission intensity. According to the CSI, this has fallen by 32kgCO₂/t cement to 588kgCO₂/t cement in 2017 mainly due to an increased uptake of alternative fuel and blended cement production, as well as a reduction in the clinker factor. This is bang on target with its aim of hitting 320kgCO₂/t in 2050 (around 560 kgCO₂/t in 2020, assuming a linear decrease).

The problem is that cement production growth in India suddenly sped up in 2018. Global Cement estimates that India’s cement production is set to rise by 7% year-on-year to 296Mt in 2018 from 280Mt in 2017. Data from the Ministry of Commerce & Industry shows that cement production rose by nearly 16% year-on-year to 244Mt in the first nine months of 2018 from 211Mt in the same period in 2017. Along these lines the Cement Manufacturers Association of India has forecast growth of 10% in the 2019 financial year to the end of March 2019. It reckons that this is the fastest growth in the sector since the industry slowed down in 2011.

India’s per capita cement consumption is low (222kg/capita) and its urban population is also low (around 30%). That’s a lot of cement that’s going to be used as it shifts to developed global rates and already it’s the globe’s second biggest cement market. The CSI was right to get in there eight years ago. Yet, the question now is can CO₂ emissions decrease whilst the market grows? Research in the US suggests that the real reason for emission drops in the 2010s was the economic recession, not policy shifts or changes in the energy mix. If that holds in India then the cement industry will have a hard time reducing its carbon footprint irrespective of the work the CSI has done.

Fascinating information came out of LafargeHolcim last week as part of its Capital Markets Day 2018. The building materials company said it is expecting sales growth to slow in 2019 but earnings to grow. Jan Jenisch, the chief executive officer (CEO), said that the group was ‘aggressively’ moving forward in aggregates and ready-mix concrete. Alongside this, its recent divestment of its Indonesian operations was declared a ‘major’ milestone in focusing its portfolio and cutting down on debt.

Graph 1: LafargeHolcim’s major product lines by sales (%), 2015 – 2017. Source: Company reports.

Graph 1, above, gives a good idea of how LafargeHolcim has been changing its business. Cement sales as a percentage of total sales have been cut to 60% in 2017 from 67% in 2015. Ready-mix concrete and other sales (including asphalt) have risen to 26% from 19%. Aggregate sales have stayed at around 14%. If the world is making too much cement then LafargeHolcim is switching to concrete and balancing out its supply chain. Naturally, this was backed up in one of its investor presentations showing a more even split in the world building materials market between cement, concrete and aggregates. This fits with Jenisch’s background as the former head of Sika. That company manufactures a wide range of specialty chemicals for the construction and automotive industries.

That shift in focus could also be seen at the inaugural Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) event in late November 2018 where concrete was very much the centre of attention from a sustainability angle. The main companies involved with the GCCA are vertically integrated ones and, by switching its product balance, LafargeHolcim seems to be moving in the same direction. In a sense this is a continuation of the synergy-seeking that was promised when Lafarge and Holcim merged in 2015.

Graph 2: Forecast cement demand growth in LafargeHolcim markets. Source: LafargeHolcim investor presentation 2018.

The other interesting question for LafargeHolcim is where next for growth? The graphic above shows a number of promising areas, including India and east Sub-Saharan Africa. Also, note the slowdown forecast for China. That renewed faith in India is timely this week given the expectation by the Indian Cement Manufacturers Association that cement demand growth in the country will rise by at least 10% in the current financial year to March 2019. If the momentum holds up after a strong first half then it will mark the fastest increase for the region since the market slowed down in 2011. LafargeHolcim doesn’t appear to be on course to grow significantly in India anytime soon but it has major ‘skin in the game’ in a promising market.

Another indication of the vibrancy of the Indian market also came this week from the Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) with the results of a status review from its low carbon technology roadmap (LCTR). The results were fairly good for such a large industry, with falling CO₂ emissions intensity, growing co-processing rates and a decreasing clinker factor. This report carried a sad note given that the work that the CSI does will be taken over by the GCCA in January 2019. However, if this is the last we’re going to hear from the CSI, then they’ve left on a high note.

Lastly, leafing through old financial reports may not be everybody’s idea of a good time but it does let one see how LafargeHolcim’s product mix has changed. It also gives one time to catch up with old faces. Like Bruno Lafont and Eric Olsen. Once again those two former executives popped up in the latest twist of the on going Lafarge Syria legal case as a group of Yazidi women have applied to become ‘civil parties’ in the case. Whether the war crimes inflicted upon the Yazidis can be pinned on Lafarge Syria remains to be seen. Yet, for all of the LafargeHolcim’s business reorganisation, its predecessor’s conduct in Syria continues to make headlines. However much progress the company makes in turning around its fortunes, if it can be, this will continue to overshadow everything. Once a line is drawn under the affair then LafargeHolcim can move on properly.

India: The Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA) has elected Mahendra Singhi, the chief executive officer (CEO) of Dalmia Cement (Bharat), as its new president. He succeeds Shailendra Chouksey, according to the Press Trust of India. Singhi was previously the president of the Rajasthan Manufacturers Association. He also ran Shree Cement before leading Dalmia Bharat group.

India: The National Council for Cement and Building Materials (NCCBM), has appointed Mahendra Singhi, Group CEO of Dalmia Cement (Bharat) Ltd as its new Chairman. Mr Singhi has been a part of the board of Governors of NCCBM since 2013.

Commenting on the occasion, NCCBM Director General, Ashutosh Saxena, said, "We are fortunate to have someone of Mr Singhi’s calibre and experience to lead NCCBM. We are at a critical phase of development of our centres of excellence and we need renewed leadership to successfully implement our research, strengthen our technology initiatives and take advantage of the opportunities ahead for sustainable development of cement and construction sector. Mahendra Singhi is a technology visionary with a proven track record of execution. Furthermore, as a member of NCCBM’s board of governors for the past five years, he has a deep understanding of its capabilities and potential."

A prominent figure in the Indian manufacturing industry, Mahendra Singhi has played a prominent role in the growth and development of the country’s cement sector over the last 40 years. Beginning in 1978 with Birla Group, he has held leadership positions with major cement companies: Shree Digvijay Cement, UltraTech Cement and Shree Cement, in various capacities. He led Shree Cement before his present appointment. He serves as co-chair of the Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) in India and Vice-President of Cement Manufacturer’s Association (CMA).

On his appointment Mahendra Singhi said, "I am really honoured to be trusted with the top job at NCCBM, after successfully completing five wonderful years of association with the council. It has been a tremendously rewarding journey over the years of my work in the cement industry. It would be my utmost endeavour to promote research and scientific work connected with waste to wealth, cement and building materials trade and industry and I am certain that together with NCCBM, we will make huge strides and carry out many ambitious projects to make impact on society worldwide."

India: ACC has appointed Ashish Prasad as its Chief Marketing Officer and Head of New Products & Services. Based in Mumbai, he will also be a member of the company's executive committee. Prasad will lead the brand building and marketing efforts for ACC's cement and concrete businesses. He will be responsible for growing the portfolio through the introduction of new products and solutions, as well as the design and implementation of new services to strengthen ACC's presence as a complete solution provider in the building materials space.

Prasad holds over 20 years of experience in brand management, sales, strategy and business development at companies including Pidilite Industries, Aditya Birla Group, Asian Paints and the Coca-Cola Company. In his last role as the chief operating officer (COO) of the construction chemicals business at Pidilite Industries, he was responsible for developing and growth of Dr Fixit and Roff brands.

He is a science graduate from Delhi University and holds a management degree from the Indian Institute of Management in Ahmedabad.

India: Dalmia Cement (Bharat) has appointed Ujjwal Batria as its chief operating officer. Batria will be in charge of leading the company's sales, marketing, logistics, manufacturing, logistics, manufacturing and technical services departments, according to the Economic Times newspaper. He holds 33 years of industry experience with roles such as the chief executive officer (CEO) for Nuvoco Vistas (formerly Lafarge India) and positions at the cement divisions of Tata Steel and Century Textiles & Industries.