Displaying items by tag: OYAK

Last week’s financial results from Çimsa contained a glimmer of hope for the Turkish cement market. Its net sales grew by 27% year-on-year to Euro175m in the first nine months of 2020 and operating profit more than doubled. Crucially, the balance between domestic and export sales tilted back a little toward the local market at a 55/45 ratio rather than 40/60 for the same period in 2019. Oyak Cement, another of the larger local producers, reported a similar rise in sales also. Akçansa Çimento, the joint venture between Sabancı Holding and HeidelbergCement, saw its sales fall slightly so far in 2020 but its profit grew. These financial results are all surprising given the currency and debt crisis the country faced in 2018 and now coronavirus in 2020.

Graph 1: Domestic and export cement sales in Turkey, January – July 2017 – 2020. Source: Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association (TÇMB)

Graph 1 above shows the general picture of the Turkish cement industry for the first seven months of each year to put the data so far in 2020 into context. The general Turkish economy faced problems in the middle of the year when the value of the Turkish Lira dropped sharply in mid-2018 and interest rates rose sharply. Subsequently, annual cement sales fell by over 20% year-on-year to 56.5Mt in 2019. A couple of weeks ago the Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association (TÇMB) said that the sector started 2020 optimistically with a recovery in January 2020. Coronavirus then hit, causing a contraction in the domestic market for the next four months. However, the construction market picked up again in June 2020 and this is expected to have continued into August 2020.

The cement sector previously pivoted to exports strongly with nearly a 50% bump up in exports to 11Mt in 2019. 2020 has been similar so far for the export market with a 40% rise year-on-year from January to July 2020 to around 9Mt. Much of these exports have gone to the US with local media and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) reporting that the North American country took 18% of Turkey’s Euro840m cement exports from January to September 2020. Focusing on international trade has not come without a price though. In September 2020 the Ukrainian government started an investigation into alleged dumping of cement by Turkish producers. Following a complaint by local producers, the Interdepartmental Commission for International Trade (ICIT) determined that: “imports were made to an extent and under conditions such that they may cause material injury to the domestic producer.” The results of the investigation remain to be seen, but Ukraine had no qualms in 2019 about slapping tariffs onto cement imports from Russia, Belarus and Moldova.

All of this leaves the Turkish cement producers relying, much as previously, on the export market to hold up sales while the domestic market recovers to 2018 levels. This is becoming riskier, given the growing number of rivals exporting cement around the world, particularly from around the Mediterranean, and with more countries like Egypt hoping to do likewise. Yet as long as favourite destinations like the US and Israel keep buying, Turkey should be okay. At home, the question remains whether the growth seen post-coronavirus measures in the spring is a sign of economic recovery or merely pent up demand. The country’s initial coronavirus response was praised internationally but signs of a second wave are present. Meanwhile the International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirmed in October 2020 its earlier forecast of a 5% drop in gross domestic product (GDP) for Turkey in 2020. Much of the rest of the world is facing similar contractions in output or worse in 2020 but starting the year from a poor economic position is not enviable.

Turkey: Sabancı Holding has appointed Umut Zenar as the general manager of Çimsa following the departure of Ülkü Özcan. Zenar’s previous role as the general manager of Akçansa, a joint venture between Sabancı and HeidelbergCement, will be filled by Mehmet Zeki Kanadıkırık. The changes will take effect from the start of September 2020.

Zenar holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Boğaziçi University in Istanbul. He started his professional career in 2003 as a Business Development Specialist at Zorlu Holding before joining Akçansa in 2004. After working in sales, marketing and business development roles he moved to Oyak Cement Concrete Paper Group in 2016 as a general coordinator before returning to Akçansa as its general manager in 2018.

Kanadıkırık holds a degree in mechanical engineering from Middle East Technical University in Ankara. He started his career worked for Çukurova İthalat, Brisa, Lubrekip, Kordsa and Tekstil Servis. In 2006 he became the Production Manager at Kordsa Turkey and subsequently became the Manufacturing Director of Kordsa Turkey, the Operations Director of Thai Indo Kordsa and the Chief Operating Officer (CEO) of Asia Pacific for Kordsa in 2015.

Portugal: Cimpor has won a contract to supply cement for a new 80km railway line linking Elvas to Évora. It expects to delivery up to 0.14Mt of cement for the project, according to the Dinheiro Vivo newspaper. Cement will be supplied from its Alhandra integrated plant and ready-mixed concrete from other sites. The project is expected to be completed in early 2023.

Cape Verde: Turkey’s OYAK is planning to invest in pozzolan extraction following a meeting between OYAK's Cement Concrete Paper Group chairman Suat Çalbiyik and prime minister Ulisses Correia e Silva. Mining activity has remained muted since Cabocem, an Italian company, closed in 2013, according to Sapo. OYAK has operations in the country via Portugal’s Cimpor, which it acquired in 2019.

Taiwan: Taiwan Cement’s profit has risen so far in 2019 due to stable cement prices and falling coal prices. Its net profit increased by 11.1% year-on-year to US$214m in the first nine months of 2019, according to the Taipei Times newspaper. However, its sales revenue fell by 3.5% to US$2.87bn. The cement producer says it has a production capacity of 102Mt/yr following the formation of a joint venture in Turkey and an acquisition in Portugal in 2018.

The company reported higher labour, transportation and raw material costs in China in the third quarter of 2019. Its expenses were also inflated by environmental upgrades. Company president John Li said, that despite falling prices in Guizhou province, demand in regional markets, including Guangdong, Guangxi and Jiangsu provinces was expected to remain beneficial.

One of the more interesting news stories in recent weeks was the completion of Oyak Cement’s acquisition of Cimpor. Previously we focused on the connection to Taiwan Cement (GCW377). Around the same time that the Oyak-Cimpor deal was announced in late October 2018 the Taiwanese company bought a 40% stake in the Turkish cement producer for around US$640m. However, as the world’s sixth largest cement producer by cement production capacity, Turkey is always a country worth keeping an eye on for both the Oyak deal and the wider industry.

Graph 1: Turkish domestic cement sales, 2007 - 2017. Source: Turkish Cement Manufacturers' Association (TÇMB).

Graph 2: Turkish cement and clinker exports, 2007 - 2017. Source: Turkish Cement Manufacturers' Association (TÇMB).

Data from the Turkish Cement Manufacturers' Association (TÇMB) shows that domestic cement sales have been rising steadily to 72.2Mt in 2017 after a blip in the late 2000s. So far 2018 has not kept the trend, with a drop of 2.01% year-on-year to 50.8Mt for the first nine months of 2018 from 51.8Mt in the same period in 2017. Turkey is also a major exporter of cement so these are the other figures to watch. After hitting a high of nearly 18Mt in 2010 they dropped for five years before rising again. The ratio of clinker in the exports total has also been growing recently. LIke domestic production ,exports were down at the nine month mark in 2018, by 1.8% to 9.9Mt, but the ratio of clinker exports has continued to grow.

Given the focus on exports for the Turkish market Oyak Cement’s international purchases via Cimpor widen its options. The deal covered assets in Portugal and Cape Verde including three integrated cement plants and two mills, with a total cement production capacity of 9.1Mt/yr. It’s not clear yet how Oyak wants to run its new foreign plants but it might be tempting to focus on a grinding model abroad using imported Turkish clinker depending on running costs. Back home in Turkey Oyak Cement is the largest local producer with a 15% market share. It operates seven integrated plants with a production capacity of 16Mt/yr according to Global Cement Directory 2019 data.

As for the other major companies, Akçansa, a joint venture of Sabancı Holding and HeidelbergCement, saw its sales rise by 4% to US$277m in 2017. Its sales volumes of cement and clinker rose but its exports fell by 13% to 1.3Mt. In its third quarter report for 2018 HeidelbergCement highlighted issues with the local economy such as high inflation, a currency crisis and a resulting loss of confidence.Sabancı also holds a majority stake in the other major producer, Çimsa Çimento. At the six month mark Çimsa Çimento reported that its sales grew by 35% year-on-year to US$162m and its net profit increased by 55% to US$23.2m. Notably, Çimsa also runs a number of international terminals in Germany, Italy, Spain, the disputed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and Russia, with distribution operations in Romania and the US also.

As mentioned above the general Turkish economy faced problems in 2018 when the value of the Turkish Lira dropped sharply in mid-2018 and interest rates soared. This led to a reduction in industrial output. On the cement side this is likely visible in falling local sales in 2018 and the switch to exports. Raw materials have also risen in this environment leading the president of the TÇMB to reassure the construction industry that the price of cement would not rise too sharply in 2019. Some of the eye-watering input hikes that he cited included a 76% rise in electricity costs, a 182% rise in the price of coal and a 170% rise in the price of petcoke. With this kind of backdrop the 2018 annual results for the Turkish producers may not make easy reading. Yet this also may explain why Oyak Cement moved overseas and allowed Taiwan Cement to invest in it when it did. Looking more widely it seems exports are likely to grow in the near future.

Portugal: Turkey’s Oyak Cement has completed it acquisition of Cimpor. The completion of the transaction follows the approval of the European Commission in mid-January 2019, according to the Expresso newspaper. The purchase includes three integrated cement plants, two grinding plants, 20 quarries and 46 ready-mix concrete plants in Portugal and Cape Verde.

Belgium: The European Commission has approved the acquisition of sole control over Cimpor Portugal by Turkey’s Oyak. The commission ruled that there are no competition concerns between the cement producers given that they operate in different geographic markets. The deal was announced in late October 2018.

Portugal: Proença de Carvalho has resigned as the president of Cimpor. Three independent directors of the cement producer have also resigned, according to the Jornal de Negócios. The departures follow OYAK Cement’s acquisition of Cimpor’s assets in Portugal and Cape Verde from Brazil’s InterCement.

The long expected move by a Chinese cement producer outside of East Asia took a step closer this week with the news that Taiwan Cement is negotiating with OYAK Cement over a joint venture in Turkey. Taiwan Cement says it is prepared to invest up to US$1.1bn in the subsidiary that will operate OYAK Cement’s business in Turkey. In its press release Taiwan Cement said, bluntly, that government peak production limits and market saturation in China had forced it to expand internationally.

This isn’t Taiwan Cement’s first flirtation with a Turkish cement producer. Back in June 2018 local press reported that it had signed a memorandum of understanding and a confidentiality clause with Sanko Holding about potential investment. However, the timing is curious this time because almost simultaneously Brazil’s InterCement announced that it was selling its operations in Portugal and Cape Verde to OYAK Cement. This sale alone deserves more attention given that it is the third by a Brazilian producer since September 2018 but that’s a discussion for another week. Back on OYAK Cement, whilst nothing is certain at this stage, a pledge of US$1.1bn from a foreign investor would certainly come in handy helping to raise the money at the Turkish company.

Whoever, if anybody, Taiwan Cement ends up pairing up with, the level of the investment suggests a multi-plant move. Indeed, the suggested OYAK Cement deal involves a 40% share in 13 integrated cement plants in Turkey with a production capacity of around 12Mt/yr or a 16% local market share. This isn’t far off the regular international price of US$200/t for integrated production capacity.

For a Chinese company to choose Turkey is resonant historically because it is towards the western end of the Silk Road. Marco Polo, for example, travelled from Venice to China via the territory of modern-day Turkey. The modern day version, the Belt and Road Initiative, seeks to evoke this trade route as China attempts to expand internationally.

Pertinent to the cement industry, both China and Turkey are both major exporters. Turkey is the bigger exporter by proportion of production, at 10% in 2017. Both countries were in the top five exporters to the US in 2017 with 2Mt from China and 1.4Mt from Turkey. The commonly accepted wisdom is that the Chinese industry faces major hurdles to exporting its overcapacity. Yet its production base is so large, 15 times larger than Turkey’s, that the little clinker and cement it has the infrastructure to export is still significant. It’s interesting that a major Chinese producer seeking to overcome structural and market obstacles to its expansion at home is targeting a major exporting nation. Typically, when a foreign cement producer buys local companies, one strategy is to use the new assets to ‘naturalise’ its clinker imports as ‘local’ product. Given Turkey’s already large export market this seems unlikely in this case.

The highly public nature of Taiwan Cement’s latest attempt to strike it lucky in Turkey smacks of bolstering investor confidence as much as closing the deal. Normally, this kind of thing gets announced once everything has been agreed, possibly bar the regulatory approval. Putting some money up front may make Taiwan Cement seem serious but OYAK Cement also stands to benefit from its acquisition of the former-Cimpor assets in Portugal and Cape Verde, since it gives it a toehold within the European Union (EU). This one could go either way.