Displaying items by tag: South Africa

It’s the end of the year so it’s time to look at trends in the sector news over the last 12 months. It’s also the end of a decade, so for a wider perspective check out the feature in the December 2019 issue of Global Cement Magazine. The map of shifting production capacity and the table of falling CO₂ emissions per tonne are awesome and inspiring in their own way. They also point towards the successes and dangers facing the industry in the next decade.

Back on 2019 here are some of the main themes of the year in the industry news. This is a selective list but if we missed anything crucial let us know.

European multinationals retreat

LafargeHolcim left the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia, HeidelbergCement sold up in Ukraine and reduced its stake in Morocco and CRH is reportedly making plans to leave the Philippines and India, if local media speculation can be believed. To be fair to HeidelbergCement it has also instigated some key acquisitions here and there, but there definitely has been a feel of the multinationals cutting their losses in certain places and retreating that bit closer to their heartlands.

CRH’s chief executive officer Albert Manifold summed it up an earnings meeting when he said, “…you're faced with a capital allocation decision of investing in Europe or North America where you've got stability, certainty, overlap, capability, versus going for something a bit more exotic. The returns you need to generate to justify that higher level of risk are extraordinary and we just don't see it.”

The battle for the European Green Deal

One battle that’s happening right now is the lobbying behind the scenes for so-called energy-intensive industries in Europe as part of the forthcoming European Green Deal. The cement industry is very aware that it is walking a tightrope on this one. The European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) CO₂ price started to bite in 2019, hitting a high of Euro28/t in August 2019 and plant closures have been blamed on it. The rhetoric from Ursula von der Leyen, the new president of the European Commission, has been bullish on climate legislation and the agitation of Greta Thunberg internationally and groups like Extinction Rebellion has kept the issue in the press. Cembureau, the European Cement Association, is keen to promote the industry’s sustainability credentials but it is concerned that aspects of the proposed deal will create ‘uncertainty and risks.’ Get it wrong and problems like the incoming ban on refuse-derived fuel (RDF) imports into the Netherlands may proliferate. What the Green Deal ends up as could influence the European cement industry for decades.

The managed march of China

Last’s week article on a price spike in Henan province illustrated the tension in China between markets and government intervention. It looks like this was driven by an increase in infrastructure spending with cement sales starting to rise. Cement production growth has also picked up in most provinces in the first three quarters of 2019. This follows a slow fall in cement sales over the last five years as state measures such as consolidation and peak shifting have been implemented. The government dominates the Chinese market and this extends west, as waste importers have previously found out to their cost.

Meanwhile, the Chinese industry has continued to grow internationally. Rather than buying existing assets it has tended to build its own plants, often in joint ventures with junior local partners. LafargeHolcim may have left Indonesia in 2018 but perhaps the real story was Anhui Conch's becoming the country's third biggest producer by local capacity. Coupled with the Chinese dominance in the supplier market this has meant that most new plant projects around the world are either being built by a Chinese company or supplied by one.

India consolidates but watches dust levels

Consolidation has been the continued theme in the world's second largest cement industry, with the auction for Emami Cement and UltraTech Cement’s acquisition of Century Textiles and Industries. Notably, UltraTech Cement has decided to focus its attention on only India despite the overseas assets it acquired previously. Growth in cement sales in the second half of 2019 has slowed and capacity utilisation rates remain low. Indian press reports that CRH is considering selling up. Together with the country's low per capita cement consumption this suggests a continued trend for consolidation for the time being.

Environmental regulations may also play a part in rationalising the local industry, as has already happened in China. The Indian government considered banning petcoke imports in 2018 in an attempt to decrease air pollution. Later, in mid-2019, a pilot emissions trading scheme (ETS) for particulate matter (PM) was launched in Surat, Gujarat. At the same time the state pollution boards have been getting tough with producers for breaching their limits.

Steady growth in the US

The US market has been a dependable one over the last year, generally propping up the balance sheets of the multinational producers. Cement shipments grew in the first eight months of the year with increases reported in the North-Eastern and Southern regions. Imports also mounted as the US-China trade war benefitted Turkey and Mexico at the expense of China. Alongside this a modest trade in cement plants has been going on with upgrades also underway. Ed Sullivan at the Portland Cement Association forecasts slowing growth in the early 2020s but he doesn’t think a recession is coming anytime soon.

Mixed picture in Latin America

There have been winners and losers south of the Rio Grande in 2019. Mexico was struggling with lower government infrastructure spending hitting cement sales volumes in the first half of the year although US threats to block exports haven’t come to pass so far. Far to the south Argentina’s economy has been holding the cement industry back leading to a 7% fall in cement sales in the first 11 months of the year. Both of these countries’ travails pale in comparison to Venezuela’s estimated capacity utilisation of just 12.5%. There have been bright spots in the region though with Brazil’s gradual return to growth in 2019. The November 2019 figures suggest sales growth of just under 4% for the year. Peru, meanwhile, continues to shine with continued production and sales growth.

North and south divide in Africa and the Middle East

The divide between the Middle East and North African (MENA) and Sub-Saharan regions has grown starker as more MENA countries have become cement exporters, particularly in North Africa. The economy in Turkey has held back the industry there and the sector has pivoted to exports, Egypt remains beset by overcapacity and Saudi Arabian producers have continued to renew their clinker export licences.

South of the Sahara key countries, including Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa, have suffered from poor sales due to a variety of reasons, including competition and the local economies. Other countries with smaller cement industries have continued to propose and build new plants as the race to reduce the price of cement in the interior drives change.

Changes in shipping regulations

One of the warning signs that flashed up at the CemProspects conference this year was the uncertainty surrounding the new International Maritime Organistaion (IMO) 2020 environmental regulations for shipping. A meeting of commodity traders for fuels for the cement industry would be expected to be wary of this kind of thing. Their job is to minimise the risk of fluctuating fuel prices for their employers after all. Yet, given that the global cement industry produces too much cement, this has implications for the clinker and cement traders too. This could potentially affect the price of fuels, input materials and clinker if shipping patterns change. Ultimately, IMO 2020 comes down to enforcement but already ship operators have to decide whether and when to act.

Do androids dream of working in cement plants?

There’s a been a steady drip of digitisation stories in the sector news this year, from LafargeHolcim’s Industry 4.0 plan to Cemex’s various initiatives and more. At present the question appears to be: how far can Industry 4.0 / internet of things style developments go in a heavy industrial setting like cement? Will it just manage discrete parts of the process such as logistics and mills or could it end up controlling larger parts of the process? Work by companies like Petuum show that autonomous plant operation is happening but it’s still very uncertain whether the machines will replace us all in the 2020s.

On that cheery note - enjoy the winter break if you have one.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 8 January 2020

Nigeria: Dangote Cement’s non-executive director Fideli Madavo has resigned from his position on the company’s board. Madavo represented the stakeholder Public Investment Corporation (PIC), South Africa’s state pension fund, where he is head of resources and portfolio manager for strategic and African listed investments. The company has not stated a reason for the change.

South Africa: PPC’s sales have fallen due to poor sales volumes in South Africa and Zimbabwe. Its results were also negatively affected by ‘significant’ currency exchange effects between the South African Rand and the Zimbabwean Dollar. Its revenue decreased by 12% year-on-year to US$334m in the six months to 30 September 2019 from US$378m in the same period in 2018. Sales volumes fell by 17% to 2.6Mt. Earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) dropped by 20% to US$58.6m from US$70.2m.

“The positive operational results in Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have partially offset difficult and competitive market conditions in South Africa and Zimbabwe,” said chief executive officer (CEO) Roland Van Wijnen. “PPC has continued its efforts to implement necessary price increases to lay the basis for a sustainable domestic cement industry in South Africa.” In South Africa PPC blamed imports and blender activity for exacerbating a poor local market. It also noted that its fuel costs grew by 30% in the reporting period.

Zimbabwe: PPC Zimbabwe is looking to enter into a partnership with investors to build a solar energy plant of up to 16MW to supply its two plants in Bulawayo and Colleen Bawn. It also intends to have a 28hr battery back-up facility.

The company said that the move to solar would ensure uninterrupted power supplies to its plants, which have been badly affected by the prevailing power shortages in the country. Power utility Zesa Holdings has been forced to ration power in mid 2019 as production at its main hydro-power plant dwindled due to water shortages. Its main thermal power station experiences constant breakdowns due to its old age.

South Africa: Research carried out by Beton-Lab on the instigation off PPC has revealed a widespread flouting of cement quality regulations, with the majority of samples overweight or underweight and of inconsistent quality. Beton-Lab tested 14 products from 10 different producers. Cape Times has suggested that the results are due to the addition of fly ash and slag to finished cement as a common practice amongst producers.

In August 2019, PPC and other South African producers lobbied the government International Trade Administration Commission for a tightening of cement standards in response to a perceived compromise on quality by importers, whose 4.6% stake in the market grew by 293% year-on-year in July 2019.

South Africa: The National Regulator for Compulsory Specifications (NRCS) has confiscated cement supplied by Rainbow Power Cement due to non-compliance with the requirements of the compulsory specification on cement. The NRCS has issued a directive against the sale and supply of such products.

“Rainbow Power Cement does not have the authority to manufacture and supply cement in South Africa as it had failed to meet minimum safety requirements in line with the NRCS Act. This has therefore led to withdrawal of the Letter of Authority as previously issued by the NRCS,” said the regulator in a statement. It added that sub-standard cement can negatively affect the sustainability of buildings and structures leading to higher maintenance costs and even structural failures.

The NRCS said that non-compliant cement was initially identified and confiscated in Gauteng province but that there were signs that the cement had also been distributed in other provinces.

Rainbow Power Cement said that it is moving to a new certifying body, the South African Bureau of Standards (SABS). It acknowledged that it is unable to sell any cement until this process is completed.

South Africa: PPC has appointed the former Holcim Philippines chief operating officer and Eastern Europe regional CEO Roland Van Wijnen to the position of CEO. Van Wijnen, who holds a master’s degree from the University of Twente, will take over control of the company’s 6.2Mt/yr total integrated capacity across South Africa and Zimbabwe from Johannes Theodorus Claassen on 1 October 2019.

South Africa: South Africa imported 0.1Mt of cement in July 2019, 293% more than in July 2018. The Algeria Press Service has reported the value of July 2019’s imports as US$4.85m. This represents a decrease from the June 2019 figure of US$6.73 of 28%. Vietnam continues to be the main contributor to the June and Julyimport figures, with Pakistan notably absent in both months. In the record seven months to 31 July 2019, South Africa imported 0.6Mt of cement at a total cost of US$29.6m.

Njobo Lekula, managing director of PPC, has stated that cement prices are ‘critically’ low for domestic producers, whose 18Mt/yr capacity faces a domestic demand of 13Mt/yr. In August 2019, South Africa’s major cement producers applied to South Africa’s International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) for a tightening of cement standards, which may take the form of a blanket tariff on imports.

South Africa: PPC has reported an increase in it earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation (EBITDA) of 5 - 10% for the four-month period to 30 July 2019 compared to a year ago.

Against a backdrop of subdued domestic demand and competitive pricing by importers (whose imports increased 22.0% year-on-year to 0.64Mt in the first half of 2019), the group has held gross debt at a similar level to that reported in March 2019, implementing its US$4.56/t saving initiative and a focus on its most profitable market segments, with sales reduced by 10-15% in the four months to 30 July 2019 compared with 2018.

PPC’s financial report states that South African cement producers have engaged the relevant authorities for a cement standards check.

South Africa: The South African cement industry is calling on the International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) to probe a flood of imports into the country. South Africa, which has six cement producers and more than 30% over-capacity, has become a net importer of cement. Imports have increased by 139% since 2016, according to The Concrete Institute’s (ITC) managing director Brian Perrie.

Perrie said in an interview that TCI, representing AfriSam, Dangote Cement South Africa, Lafarge Industries South Africa, Natal Portland Cement and PPC were approaching ITAC to investigate whether the industry required protection from an 18-month surge in imports.

He said that imported cement was undercutting South African prices by as much as 45%, while local producers also had to meet the requirements of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), meet black empowerment and other social requirements and, at the same time, protect thousands of jobs in the domestic industry. Also, the recent carbon tax translated into a 2% increase in selling prices, putting the local industry at a further price disadvantage. “Trade remedy protection is required," said Perrie, pointing out that producers did not want a ‘ban’ on imports, rather some form of protection to ‘level the playing field.’

South Africa instituted anti-dumping duties of 17 – 70% against importers from Pakistan in 2015. Imports duly fell in 2016 but rose again in 2017 and 2018, mainly from Vietnam and China. Perrie said that 350,441t of cement arrived in the second quarter of 2019 alone, the most since the third quarter of 2015. Most came in through Durban (260,909t), an 85% increase on the first quarter.