Displaying items by tag: United States Geological Survey

Lots of facts stuck out from the inaugural Global GypSupply Conference that took place in Brussels last week. One was that Spain exported 1.49Mt of raw gypsum to West Africa in 2016. The data point from Spanish customs popped up in a presentation by Mohamed El Moustapha, the managing director of a gypsum mining company based in Mauritania. He was using the figures to reinforce the opportunities for his company to supply the growing cement industry in West Africa. Yet the size of the market has implications for the oft-repeated claims of cement sector self-sufficiency that various countries in the region have cried out for.

Gypsum is used as a retarding agent to control the setting time of cement. It gets added whilst clinker is ground into cement. Roughly speaking, cement production requires about 5% of gypsum. So a 1Mt/yr cement plant would require around 50,000t/yr of gypsum. The crucial question for cement producers in West Africa is where is this gypsum coming from. Given that the Global Cement Directory 2018 places cement production capacity at just under 100Mt/yr in the region, this requires around just under 5Mt/yr of gypsum.

El Moustapha made out that there were no gypsum deposits in West Africa. This contradicts a study on Nigerian gypsum mining published in Global Gypsum Magazine in March 2016 estimated local reserves to be around 150Mt although to be fair to El Moustapha these appear to be relatively underused. This also doesn’t take into account sources of synthetic gypsum produced at coal-power plants although this is likely to be negligible at present.

Reserves in Mauritania appear to be much larger at 1.7Bnt. Instead, the problem here appears to be assisting the exploitation of mined gypsum by improving infrastructure and supply chain issues. El Moustapha’s company Samia reported that it exported 170,00t of gypsum to cement plants in West Africa, mainly via ship, but with a significant minority via truck overland to Mali. Another speaker at the conference from the Moroccan gypsum trader Cultura presented a snapshot of a more mature market with exports of 210,000t in 2017. However, similar issues with port infrastructure were also present. To this end the company was keenly looking forward to an upgrade project the Port of Safi due for commissioning in 2020 – 2022 that would allow larger ships to berth.

A market report on the gypsum and anhydrite market by Roskill in 2014 placed Egypt, Algeria and South Africa as Africa’s leading gypsum producers. In particular it singled out South Africa as the only sub-Saharan country producing more than 100,000t/yr of gypsum. In terms of usage of gypsum Roskill estimated that just over half of the world’s gypsum was used to make cement, followed by 38% for wallboard and plaster production and then 18% for agricultural usage. Although this compares to just over a quarter for cement production and most of the rest for wallboard production in the US, with its more developed wallboard market than the rest of the world, according to recent United States Geological Survey (USGS) data.

As the Global GypSupply Conference demonstrated plenty of raw gypsum is available around the world. However, since supply and price can vary considerably in the short term, cement producers are keen to secure steady sources. Developing gypsum sources in northern Africa are necessary to help build the West African cement industry, but the regions need to work together.

The 2nd Global GypSupply Conference will take place in spring 2020

The latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) shows that cement shipments rose by 2.4% year-on-year to 95.5Mt in 2017. Readers with elephantine memories may remember that the Portland Cement Association (PCA) revised its forecast for 2017 down to 3.1% from 4.2% in a release made in late 2016. Shipments and consumption are different metrics but the PCA was heading in the right direction. Unfortunately, however ebullient the PCA’s chief economist Ed Sullivan was at the IEEE-PCA in 2017 about growth in the US in 2018 and 2019, the necessary rise required seems quite steep. President Donald Trump may have handed the major cement producers a tax break but until his infrastructure spending materializes the US construction industry is on its own.

Graph 1: Clinker production in the US, 2013 – 2017. Source: USGS.

Viewing the US as a whole is a little unfair given its wide regional variation. As can be seen in Graph 1 clinker production jumped up from 2013 to a high of 76.5Mt in 2015 before taking a dip in 2016 and then rising again to 76.9Mt in 2017. Cement shipments of Ordinary Portland and blended cement show a similar trend over the same timescale except without the decrease in 2016. Interestingly, imports of cement and clinker rose by 18% to 13.6Mt in that year. The major exporters to the US were Canada, Greece, China and Turkey, in that order.

Graph 2: Cement and clinker imported for consumption to the US in 2017 by country. Source: USGS.

From a producer perspective LafargeHolcim described 2017 as a ‘disappointing’ year, with overall net sales down slightly on a like-for-like basis. The group remained optimistic for 2018 though, with its hopes pinned on rising employment and housing construction. HeidelbergCement rode high on its acquisition of Italcementi’s local subsidiary Essroc, which enabled it to grow its business in the northeast and midwest. Its cement sales volumes rose by 2.3% to 4.1Mt. CRH noted similar cement sales volume growth of 3% and attributed this to stronger demand. Its business also benefited from the acquisition of Suwannee American Cement with its 1Mt/yr cement plant in Florida. Further growth to its production base is also expected soon as it completes its acquisition of Ash Grove Cement.

By contrast Buzzi Unicem reported a tougher year with its net sales barely increasing from 2016 to 2017. It blamed a tough first half of the year for this as well as weather-related issues due to Hurricane Harvey and then snow in December 2017. Cemex too reported harder conditions in the US, with cement sales volumes down by 6% for the year. Although on a like-for-like basis with plant sales excluded it reported this as a rise of 2%. Again, it blamed the weather but it did note an increase in residential housing construction as the year progressed.

In this kind of mixed environment for cement producers no wonder the PCA backed or, perhaps more accurately, reminded the President of his pledge to spend US$1.5tn to be invested in infrastructure. As per usual the PCA forecasts fair weather ahead for the US industry once the latest roadblock is overcome. At the last assessment it was inflationary pressure. As ever the government opening its cheque book to build things is exactly what the industry needs to build on its promise. Until then expect more of the same. One more thing to consider though is that the Trump administration is also trying to change the ratio of federal-to-state funding for cross-state infrastructure projects. If the states end up having to pay more money for these kinds of projects these may end up running out of funds, delaying or cancelling them. Counting on that infrastructure spend may be unwise until if or when the cement orders come piling in.

US: The United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports that shipments of Ordinary Portland and blended cement rose by 2.4% year-on-year to 95.5Mt in 2017 from 93.3Mt in 2016. Increases of over 5% were reported in Arizona and New Mexico, Kansas, Missouri, Texas and Washington. However, shipments fell by 14% in Illinois. Imports rose by 5.6% to 11.3Mt. Clinker production increased by 1.4% to 76.8Mt from 75.8Mt. Major importers of cement into the US were Canada with 4.4Mt, Greece with 2.3Mt and China with 2Mt.

2017 has started more uncertainly for the US cement industry than 2016 did according to the latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Cement shipment data from just two months, January and February 2017, can only present a limited impression of the state of the industry. Yet the key trend to look for in Graph 1 is the growth in Midwestern US states against a decline in the Western ones. Previously in 2016 this region’s shipments sunk below those in the West in December and didn’t overtake them until the spring. This time round they’ve stuck closely and overtaken them already in February 2017.

Graph 1: Portland and blended cement shipments by US Census Bureau region for 2016 to February 2017. Source: USGS.

The Midwest’s cement shipments jumped by 21% year-on-year to 2.2Mt for those first two months. Buzzi Unicem concurred with this picture in the Midwest with its first quarter financial results this week, reporting a boost in deliveries in the region. HeidelbergCement agreed, reporting sales volumes increases in the north of the country and a decrease in the West. In that region the USGS data shows an 8% fall in shipments to 2.2Mt. HeidelbergCement blamed heavy rain and flooding in California and Oregon as the cause of the problems. Another potential reason that the USGS hints at are increasing imports of cement that it says have been rising faster than sales. For example, imports of cement to the US as a whole grew by 23.9% year-on-year to 0.81Mt in February 2017.

Overall though the situation for the larger cement producers has been subdued. Many of them blamed good weather in the first quarter of 2016 giving them a hard quarter to measure against in 2017. For example, LafargeHolcim’s sales volumes of cement fell by 4.5% in North America although it did report sales growth off the back of cement pricing and cost controls. HeidelbergCement may have looked good on paper following its integration of the Italcementi/Essroc assets but its cement volumes only grew by 1% in the period. Cemex too reported a similar scenario with falling sales volumes of 5% but growing sales revenue.

To put this in perspective, as the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) chief economist Ed Sullivan says in the May 2017 issue of Global Cement Magazine, cement production in the US grew in 2016 and it is expected to continue growing in 2017 and 2018. Just like the start of 2016 (see GCW251) the potential for US construction growth in the year ahead is a quietly confident one but it isn’t assured.

Cemex points out that housing starts rose by 8% in the first quarter of 2017, as did construction spending in the industrial and commercial sector. However, it says that infrastructure spending fell by 9% in February 2017. Indeed this last point is an important one given that one of the major Trump campaign pledges in the 2016 presidential campaign was to build more infrastructure. As commentators in Washington DC including the PCA have asked: where is the Bill? Rightly, the PCA are not letting the lawmakers forget this during ‘Infrastructure week’ as the issue is discussed. The US cement industry needs this.

For further information on the US cement industry take a look at the May 2017 issue of Global Cement Magazine

US: Clinker production has fallen slightly to 20.5Mt in the third quarter of 2016 from 20.6Mt in the same period of 2015 according to preliminary data released by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Portland and blended cement shipments fell by 3.7% to 26.4Mt from 27.4Mt. However, for the first nine months of the year both clinker production and cement shipments have risen. A full report for September 2016 will be published by the USGS in early December 2016.

Delegates at the IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Industry Technical Conference in Dallas, Texas this week may have smiles upon their faces if the following data is correct. The US cement industry has rocketed into 2016 with solid sales growth. Multinational cement producer balance sheets are being propped up by the good news and data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) backs it up.

LafargeHolcim led the pack with an 18.9% bounce in its cement sales volumes to 3.4Mt in the first quarter of 2016. Most of this rise was driven by high demand for building materials in the US supported by a ‘vigorous’ housing market and positive infrastructure spending. HeidelbergCement followed this up with a 13.8% in its cement sales volumes to 2.5Mt in North America. Cemex reported a 8% rise, Buzzi Unicem reported a 16.3% rise, Martin Marietta reported a 13.8% rise and Cementos Argos reported a 47.3% rise.

Graph 1: Portland and blended cement shipments by US Census Bureau region for 2016 to February 2016. Source: USGS

USGS data shows this ‘bounce’ in cement sales shipments at the start of 2016 quite well. Although the publicly released preliminary data only goes as far as February 2016 you can clearly see an up-tick at the start of the year. By comparison shipments in each of the main US census regions fell from January to February 2015 before picking up as the spring started. The main reason for this was the harsh winter in 2015. Overall, cement volumes rose by 11.6% year-on-year for the mainland US in January and February 2016. These were led by Maine, New York and Illinois in the Northeast and Midwest, presumably recovering from the previous winter, before a load of southern states, including Northern Texas and South Carolina, kicked in with growth of above 20%. As an aside it is also worth pointing out the seasonal variation between the Midwest and the West. The Midwest has a more pronounced summer production peak most likely due to the colder winters the region endures.

The reason for that bounce at the start of 2016 is important because it determines whether the US cement party will continue or not. A few of the cement producers in their financial reports mentioned that sales were up due to pent up demand following the harsh winter in 2015. HeidelbergCement gave a much more considered assessment than its rivals. They pointed out that, despite the growth in construction markets, economic growth slowed in the country in the quarter. This fits more in line with the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) more cautious assessment that the construction industry in the US should be growing but that an uncertain economic outlook is messing with this. It seems that the US cement industry has growth for the moment but that certainty that this will continue is far more elusive. This week’s news that plans have been scrapped to build a third kiln at the Lafarge North America Joppa cement plant just adds to this feeling.

For further information on the US cement industry take a look at the May 2016 issue of Global Cement Magazine.

US: Preliminary data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) shows that the US produced 7.0Mt of cement in May 2015. The country imported around 0.8Mt of cement during the month, giving an apparent consumption figure of around 7.8Mt. Production and imports in May 2014 were 7.5Mt and 0.6Mt, giving apparent consumption for that month of 8.1Mt. This is 0.3Mt more than in May 2015, a fall of 3.8% year-on-year.

In the year to 30 May 2015 the US consumed a total of 31.9Mt of cement, around 0.7Mt more than in the same period of 2014, when it consumed 31.2Mt.

US: The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has reported that total Portland and blended cement shipments in the USA and Puerto Rico came to 7.7Mt in April 2015, a 4.1% rise compared to April 2014. In the first four months of 2015, shipments rose by 5.1% to 24.1Mt. As previously, the leading cement-producing states were Texas, California, Missouri, Florida and Alabama.

Clinker production in April 2015 was 6.1Mt, a rise of 6.4% year-on-year. Production of clinker in the four months to 30 April 2015 rose by 7.7% from the same period of 2014 at 21.6Mt.

If you try visiting the website of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) this week you are going to be disappointed.

As part of the on-going US federal government shutdown the site has been marked as 'unavailable'. Anyone in search of US cement data and a raft of other national and international statistics will have to wait. Ditto the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Although its website is still live, its last tweet on 1 October 2013 was, 'The federal government is currently shut down.'

Some cement producers in the US may be relieved that the EPA is on a hiatus. However if you cast your mind back to the Portland Cement Associations' (PCA) optimistic growth forecast in September 2013 you may remember the following from PCA chief economist Ed Sullivan. "Assuming Congress has learned its lesson from the fiscal cliff and will take a more rational approach with the upcoming debt limit discussions, political uncertainty and its adverse impact on the economy is expected to dissipate."

Whoops.

The construction industry will be watching carefully to see how planned future infrastructure spending emerges from the debacle. If it gets cut in the horse-trading then US cement consumption growth will take a blow. Meanwhile, if the residential construction market takes a knock due to all the uncertainty and general reduction of money in the economy from federal employees not working then cement consumption gets hit immediately. Hence Sullivan's get-out comments about Congress.

Perhaps what will really concentrate minds on the fragile state of the US construction economy is if a Chinese company buys into the cement industry, as is happening elsewhere around the world. As reported this week, the state-owned Chinese aerospace and defence company AVIC International made an offer to shareholders to take over German cement plant builder KHD Humboldt Wedag.

The US federal government needs to get back to work.

US cement consumption may have disappointed some in the first quarter of 2013 but solid growth lies ahead, according to the Portland Cement Association (PCA). Just how solid that growth will be remains open to interpretation.

PCA chief economist Ed Sullivan forecast 8% growth in cement consumption at the start of 2013. Now's its been halved to just 4%. Yet he's standing by the hint of good news ahead, upping the growth from 2014 to 9.7%.

Figures from the major US cement producers present a mixed picture. The major multinational cement producers mostly suffered from the weather in early 2013. Lafarge saw its cement sales in North America drop by 23% year-on-year for the first half of 2013 to 4.4Mt from 5.7Mt in the same period of 2012. Cemex's cement sales in the US rose by 3% but no specific figures were released. Holcim's cement sales in North America fell by 7% to 5Mt from 5.4Mt. HeidelbergCement's cement sales in the North America grew by 5% to 5.7Mt from 5.4Mt.

Of the rest, Texas Industries reported a rise in cement shipments of 29% to 2.23Mt from 1.73Mt for the six months to the 31 May 2013. Titan saw sales in the US rise by 10% to US$258m.

Preliminary United States Geological Survey data for June 2013 suggests that the increase in portland and blended cement shipments in the US slowed in the first half of 2013. In 2011 32.1Mt were shipped, in 2012 37.0Mt were shipped and in 2013 37.2Mt were shipped.

Meanwhile the construction figures US Department of Commerce mostly suggested growth but not without the odd jitter. Construction spending fell slightly in June 2013. Total construction spending adjusted seasonally fell by 0.4% to US$869bn due to a fall in non-residential construction. Since then though the July 2013 figure hit US$901bn, the highest since June 2009.

Accordingly, in his forecast Sullivan pins his hopes on the residential sector in the near term. It has seen consistent growth since October 2012. However other industry commentators, like the American Institue of Architects, have focused on poor growth in non-residential construction.

Let's hope Sullivan's got it right.