Displaying items by tag: World Cement Association

Global: The World Cement Association (WCA) projects a 22% decline in global cement demand by 2050. Price increases are expected to continue in European and North American markets, while significant market restructuring is already underway to address overcapacity in China and Japan. Multinational companies are scaling back cement business and focusing instead on North America, while cement production in Europe continues to decline due to strict CO₂ regulations and capacity reductions.

India's cement production has surpassed 200Mt/yr, with domestic firms strengthening their position as multinationals exit the market. Chinese producers are expanding their presence, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia.

WCA president Wei Rushan said “To remain both profitable and environmentally responsible, the cement industry must aim to reduce capacity by 50%, from 4.7Bnt/yr to 2.3Bnt/yr within the next decade. This requires focusing on modern, sustainable production units.”

Global: The World Cement Association has released a white paper titled ‘Long-Term Forecast for Cement and Clinker Demand’, authored by CEO Ian Riley. The paper predicts a global decline in cement demand to 3Bnt/yr by 2050, with clinker demand dropping to 1.5Bnt/yr.

The report attributes the decline to decarbonisation, technological advancements and market dynamics, with the need for carbon capture and storage consequently reduced.

Ian Riley said “The cement industry is undergoing an unprecedented transformation. As we move towards a decarbonised future, understanding the true demand for cement and clinker is critical to ensuring that policies, technologies and investments align with reality. This white paper aims to provide industry leaders and policymakers with the clarity needed to plan effectively and sustainably.”

The analysis also explores disruptive factors such as alternative materials, supply chain optimisation and clinker-free technologies, presenting three scenarios to guide stakeholders in adapting to industry changes and fostering innovation.

Thailand/UK: Thailand-based Siam Cement Thung Song has joined the World Cement Association as a corporate member. The cement producer is a subsidiary of Siam Cement Group that operates an integrated plant in the south of the country.

The mood music for this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Azerbaijan has been poor. Despite this though the decarbonisation prospects for the cement sector are looking rosier than other industries.

First, the negatives. People are starting to question whether the COPs are fit for purpose. Donald Trump’s election as President-Elect in the US before the event started pretty much set the tone given that he intends to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement. Again. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev described his country’s natural gas resources as a “gift from God” following reports that, once again, COP national delegates had been caught promoting fossil fuel deals. France and Argentina also withdrew their lead negotiators for differing political reasons. Meanwhile, there has been increasing lobbying against carbon capture from the environmental sector. In short the view is growing that carbon capture is a delaying tactic by fossil fuel companies rather than a viable solution. This poses a threat to the cement sector because its current net zero roadmaps require carbon capture.

The World Cement Association’s CEO Ian Riley asked in a statement whether there might be “...a shift toward negotiations driven by the major emitters - China, the US, India, Russia, and Saudi Arabia.” However he observed that none of these countries yet seem ready to lead on the climate agenda globally.

Now, the positives. Cement CO₂ sector emissions may have continued to fall in 2023. The Global Carbon Project published its Global Carbon Budget 2024 in mid-November 2024. It predicts that global fossil CO₂ emissions will rise by 0.8% year-on-year in 2024 with emissions from coal, oil and gas still mounting. However, emissions from cement producers are expected to fall by 0.8%. This trend started in 2022. It appears to be due to declines in China, the US and the EU but, notably, not in India. It’s worth commenting here that this decline may be principally down to the parlous state of the real estate market in China, but there is also a lot of decarbonisation work happening. We’ll take a win where we can.

Next, the Global Cement and Concrete Association’s two big announcements at COP29 have been the publication of its Cement Industry Net Zero Progress Report 2024/25 and the launch of international definitions for low carbon cement and concrete. The progress report proffers a nifty update on how well it’s going. Short version: 23% reduction in emissions intensity since 1990; lots going on; plenty more to do.

One of those issues that require attention is low-carbon procurement. Hence those international definitions. This may seem like an abjectly boring topic but never underestimate the power of standards upon building materials. This should help support governments, policy makers and the private sector to set low carbon procurement rules. Since governments are among the biggest buyers of building materials worldwide, both directly and indirectly, this is intended to start speeding up decarbonisation by driving demand for existing lower carbon cement and concrete products. Whether this is the tool that cracks the global adoption of low carbon building materials remains to be seen. Yet the long lead time it took the Portland Cement Association (PCA) in the US, for example, to promote the use of Portland Limestone Cement is both instructive and inspirational. It can be done and it can deliver results.

COP29 has been described as the ‘finance COP’ because the representatives are hoping to set a new global climate finance target. This target, or new collective quantified goal (NCQG), is seen as one of the summit's main outcomes. It is intended to replace the existing US$100bn goal that is due to expire in 2025. However, the question of how much each country pays has predictably caused disagreements between developed, developing and those countries in between. All of this is well above the ‘paygrade’ of the cement sector but is crucial to what happens next, because it’s going to get expensive. Establishing regional carbon capture infrastructure requires serious funding. Time will tell whether COP29 can actually further this aim. The arguing continues.

China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced plans last week to add the cement sector to the country’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) by the end of 2024. The ministry has started the consultation process to also add steel and aluminium production to the system. 2024 will be used as a control year for the new industries entering the scheme, an implementation phase will run in 2025 and 2026 and then the quota allocated to companies will start to be reduced from 2027 onwards. Plants that emit 26,000t/yr of CO₂ or higher will be included in the ETS.

Clearly this is a big deal for the cement industry worldwide, as China produces around half of the world’s cement. As Ian Riley the CEO of the World Cement Association commented, "The inclusion of cement in the Chinese ETS is a critical and long-awaited step. As we have seen in Europe, a well-implemented carbon ETS can be beneficial by not only curbing emissions but also catalysing industry restructuring that favours the most efficient and lowest-emitting producers. This move signals China’s intent to prioritise sustainability in high-emission sectors…” In 2023, for example, China produced 2.02Bnt of cement compared to a global output of 4.10Bnt. This compares to the 176Mt of cement produced in the European Union (EU) in 2022. The EU, of course, is the home of the world’s second largest ETS.

China’s National ETS originally started in 2021 focusing on the power generation sector. It followed several pilot markets in eight regions, which continue to operate in parallel with the national system. At present the National ETS covers more than 2000 companies with emissions exceeding that 26,000t/yr of CO₂ figure mentioned above. These are mostly generation businesses, but it does also cover captive power plants. Overall, the scheme is estimated to cover around 5Bnt/yr of CO₂ and accounts for over 40% of the countryʼs CO₂ emissions. The current targets are an 18% reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP compared to 2020 levels by 2025, peak CO₂ emissions by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2060. Following the addition of the cement, steel and aluminium sectors, however, the ETS is estimated to grow to 8Bnt/yr of CO₂ and it should account for 60% of the country’s CO₂ output.

In April 2024 the average spot price of emissions traded on the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange reached €12.7/t of CO₂. This was a notable milestone because in the local currency it exceeded the ‘psychological’ 100 Chinese Yuan threshold. Meanwhile, the EU ETS CO₂ price started to increase in 2021 finally making it just past Euro100/t of CO₂ in early 2023. Since then, it has declined somewhat but remains at €50-75, well above the levels of the 2010s.

In practical terms the real significance of China’s National ETS for the cement sector should begin to be felt once the government starts to tighten up the allocated quotas from 2027 onwards. It is at this point that it will become apparent how the system is being used to drive the pace of decarbonisation. The other part of this to watch is if or when domestic talk turns to setting up a version of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to stop imports. It is at this point that one might be able to tell if the ETS has ‘bite.’

The government has not been shy in regulating industry and one of its starkest tools so far in tackling overcapacity has been mandating cement plants to simply stop production for some months of the year through so-called peak shifting. The National ETS gives it another tool to drive policy changes. Yet it is more complicated and with wider implications to other industries than simply telling plants to take a break. How it fits in globally, where there is a significant difference between the ETS price in China and the EU, remains to be seen. Yet, any additional CO₂-based burden upon the cement sector in the world’s largest cement producing country is a major step towards decarbonisation.

Global: The World Cement Association (WCA) has recently welcomed Refratechnik Asia as an Associate Corporate Member. Refratechnik Asia supplies refractory materials to the cement and lime industries in China, Southeast Asia, and Oceania. The firm produces 120,000t/yr of refractory materials.

Ian Riley, CEO of the World Cement Association, said "We are keen to see Refratechnik Asia promote its value-orientated culture within our organisation and its commitment to driving greener practices in the cement and wider construction industry.”

EU: The World Cement Association (WCA) has lent its voice to cross-industry support for the roll-out of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The mechanism taxes carbon-intensive imports, including cement, in order to prevent carbon leakage under the Emissions Trading Scheme. It first entered force on 1 October 2023, and will conclude its transitional period on 31 December 2025. Through its involvement, the WCA aims to inform and facilitate understanding of CBAM's reporting requirements, emission calculation methodologies and the workings of the CBAM Transitional Registry. WCA members and other stakeholders can access up-to-date CBAM information via a dedicated page on the association’s website.

WCA chief executive officer Ian Riley said "I'm pleased to announce our commitment to supporting our members in addressing the challenges and opportunities of this crucial initiative. The WCA is committed to supporting solutions that promote environmental responsibility and sustainability within the cement industry. We aim to work closely with our members and other stakeholders to navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by the CBAM regulation, ultimately contributing to a greener and more resilient global economy."

UK: The World Cement Association (WCA) marked the achievement of an ‘historic’ global consensus for decarbonisation at the COP28 climate change conference in the UAE in December 2023 with a new call to global cement producers and suppliers. The association called on all participants in the industry to help promote developments in reduced-CO₂ cement production through enhanced connectivity and communication. It said that technologies like alternative raw materials and alternative fuels (AF), efficiency-enhancing process changes and carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) are widely applied, but unequally, applied in the global cement industry.

Regarding the disparity between different markets, the WCA said “This imbalance underscores the critical need for more research and development funding in emerging markets, where there is real demand for this kind of support as a crucial enabler of progress.” It added “We will join hands with our members and stakeholders to advance the low-carbon and sustainable development of the industry and contribute to building a clean, safe and beautiful world.”

UAE/UK: The World Cement Association has endorsed new commitments agreed upon by Industrial Deep Decarbonisation Initiative (IDDI) member countries Canada, Germany, the UK and the US at the COP28 climate conference. The commitments include the development of time-bound low CO₂ cement procurement plans. The WCA says that IDDI members’ collective leverage of national purchasing power will help to accelerate the decarbonisation of construction globally.

CEO Ian Riley said “The WCA has always emphasised the need for immediate and collaborative action between government and industry to make carbon-negative concrete a reality at scale. Creating demand for low-emission materials is essential for decarbonisation. Now is the moment to work together to make necessary progress this decade.”

UK: The World Cement Association (WCA) has welcomed the introduction of the revised BS 8500 standard, which allows for a wider range of Portland limestone cement (PLC) and ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBFS) combinations in concrete. WCA chief executive officer Ian Riley, however, described the revision as ‘not breaking new ground but catching up.’ He called on the UK and other jurisdictions to begin enacting performance-based standards.

Riley said “It is good to see BSI making this change to concrete standards, however, this is still a very modest step forward. Firstly, ground limestone has been used successfully as a cement component in many markets for decades. Secondly, in order to produce concrete with the lowest embodied carbon and the highest circularity, we need to move away from standards that require particular recipes.”