Displaying items by tag: data

Puerto Rico: Puerto Rico’s two cement plants produced 37,100t of cement in March and April 2020, down by 55% year-on-year from 83,300t in March and April 2019. Domestic consumption over the period was 41,700t, down by 58% year-on-year from 98,800t. Esmerk Latin American News has reported that the decreases were caused by the suspension of construction work due to the government’s coronavirus lockdown.

Argentina: The Portland Cement Manufacturers Association (AFCP) has reported that cement dispatches in the period between 1 January 2020 and 30 April 2020 were 2.3Mt, down by 36% year-on-year from 3.6Mt in the corresponding period of 2019. Between March and April dispatches fell by 20% to 408,000t, down by 55% year-on-year from 907,000t in April 2019. The El Economista newspaper has reported that the decline ‘reflects the worsening of the fall in the private and public demand for housing, road, public works and infrastructure in all the districts of the country.’

Gabon: Data from the Directorate General of Economy and Tax Policy shows that national cement production rise by 10.6% year-on-year to 0.54Mt in 2019. The improving trend has been attributed to better use of existing manufacturing equipment and the resumption of activity at the CimGabon plant in Ntoum, according to the L’Union newspaper. Clinker imports also grew, by 14.6% to 0.44Mt. Overall cement sales increased by 8.5% to 0.53Mt.

Vietnam: Data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs shows that cement exports fell by 9.7% year-on-year to 7.73Mt in the first quarter of 2020. The value of these exports declined by 17.4% to US$301m, according to the Viet Nam News newspaper. Exports to China dropped by 5.4% to 2.73Mt, exports to the Philippines dropped by 27.5% to 1.47Mt, exports to Bangladesh dropped by 5.5% to 1.34Mt and exports to Taiwan dropped by 7% to 0.46Mt.

Data is starting to emerge about how the Chinese cement industry has coped with the economic effects of government action regarding the coronavirus. National cement industry output fell by 29% year-on-year to 150Mt in the combined months of January and February 2020. Output then picked up to 149Mt in March 2020, a drop of 17% compared to March 2019. These are massive figures, larger than the annual output of most countries, but they give some idea of what shutting down economies does to demand for cement and concrete.

Graph 1: Year-on-year change in cement output in China, April 2018 - March 2020. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. Note that accumulated data is issued for January and February each year so these months show a mean figure.

Graph 1 above gives the general picture of changes in cement output in China over the last couple of years. Growth fell in early 2018 as the government implemented its supply-side reforms, including measures such as industry consolidation and peak shifting. This improved in the second half of the year and throughout 2019. January and February output has been steady for the last few years, possibly due to peak shifting, but this year the trend was massively more pronounced. In March 2020, meanwhile, output fell by 17% compared to a rise of 17% in 2019. On the demand side, reporting from the Chinese Cement Association reveals that national infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 19.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020. National real estate development investment fell by 7.7% to US$310bn.

The figures above are for the whole of China whilst the outbreak was centered in Wuhan in Hubei province. The government implemented its toughest public health measures in this city and the surrounding Hubei province, with other regions using social distancing and tracking methods to various degrees. The Chinese Cement Association explains that, once other cities in Hubei province were released from lockdown, construction projects were allowed to resume but that progress was limited due to a lack of workers. Three weeks after measures were relaxed, the average shipping rate for cement producers was only 60% in these outer regions. In Wuhan the situation was more stark with demand for cement at only 20% of expected levels at the time the lockdown ended on 8 April 2020. Data from the Hubei Cement Association reports that on 30 March 2020 only half of Hubei province’s 57 clinker production lines were producing cement. The rest were suspended. To compound the problems here once logistics networks started to reopen imports of cement from other provinces flooded in taking advantage of price differences.

Few if any of the larger domestic producers have released their first quarter financial results for the first quarter of 2020. Huaxin Cement has said that its sales fell by 36% and that this is expected to cause a profit drop of 46% year-on-year to US$100m. Shanshui Cement has said likewise, although it has not released any forecasts. In its annual report for 2019 released in early April 2020, Anhui Conch said that the coronavirus had exerted a ‘short-term negative impact’ on the group’s business due to the slowdown in supply and demand in the construction materials industry. CNBM also acknowledged the situation in its 2019 report saying that it would, ‘impact on economic activity.’ CNBM’s subsidiary BNBM, a gypsum wallboard manufacturer, has released a forecast for the first quarter predicting a 90% drop in net profit due to poor sale volumes.

How this can inform the cement industries of other countries around the world that have enacted restrictions on their populations is unclear. China, as ever, is an exceptional outlier both economically and as a cement producer. Plus, the severity of how a country enacts a lockdown is crucial here. If the early reports above are indicative then half of Hubei’s clinker lines were forced to suspend production, demand for cement fell by 80% at the time the lockdown ended and imports headed in once transport networks were reopened. Issues were also noticed with labour shortages. Forewarned is forearmed as they say. The next point of focus will be how fast the Hubei and Chinese cement industry recovers from this shock. More on this as we have it.

As India reaches two weeks into its 21 day lockdown to combat coronavirus, the financial analysts are starting to publish their forecasts as to what the effects will be for the cement industry. The results are gloomy, with demand predicted to drop by up to 25% in the financial year to March 2021 by one analyst and 40% in March 2020 alone by another.

Graph 1: Indian cement production, rolling annual by month, January 2018 – February 2020. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

The graph above sets the scene for what may be to come by showing the state of production in India in recent years. From early 2018 it picked up by 17% to 337Mt by March 2019 and stayed around there through the rest of year before breeching 340Mt in January and February 2020. The (relative) lull in production growth in 2019 was blamed by some analysts on the general election in mid-2019 and then the monsoon rains. In summary the market was improving and seemed set for further growth in 2020. Alas, this does not now seem to be the case.

Looking ahead, Rating’s agency CRISIL has published a research paper on the topic and here are some of the highlights. They break the damage down into two separate scenarios. The first, where the social distancing measures last until the end of April, cause a 10 – 15% fall in cement demand with the pain limited to the first quarter of the Indian financial year, which starts on 1 April. The second, where distancing measures last until June, cause a 20 – 25% decrease in demand, with the problems extended into the second quarter. Salient points that it makes about the anticipated recovery include a delay in infrastructure spending due to the government diverting funds to healthcare, reduced private and real estate markets and a divide between state-led affordable housing schemes in urban and rural areas. It pins its hopes on rural housing to grab demand first, followed by key infrastructure projects, especially transport schemes.

Examining the cement producers directly, CRISIL reckons that prices will fall in the face of dropping demand but that power, fuel and freight costs are all expected to fall also. Profit margins are forecast to drop compared to the 2019 – 2020 financial year but still remain higher than the two previous ones. Finally, it looked at the credit profiles of 23 companies, representing over 70% of installed production capacity. Together they had a total debt of US$7bn. It flagged up four of these companies as having high debt/earnings ratios and five with low interest coverage. The latter were described as ‘small regional firms with weak cash balances.’

That’s one view on what may happen but two recent general industry news stories offer snapshots on what may be to come for the Indian market. The first is an immediate consequence of a nationwide lockdown in a country with a population of 1.3bn and a low cost of labour. 400 construction workers at a grinding plant build for Ramco Cements in Haridaspur, Odisha, were stranded at the site when the quarantine restrictions stopped them travelling home to Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. They took up residence at the building site and then protested when the food ran out. This point about migrant labour is noteworthy because how the Indian government relaxes the lockdown could have massive consequences upon how the construction industry recovers. A possible parallel from elsewhere in the world is the slowdown effect the Saudi Arabian cement industry suffered in late 2013 when the government took action against illegal foreign workers in the construction industry.

The second news story to keep in mind is the annual results from refractory manufacturer RHI Magnesita this week. It reported growing revenue from its cement and lime customers in 2019 but it blamed a weaker market in Europe on producers stockpiling product due to tightening magnesite and dolomite raw material availability. The takeaway here is that if supply chains supporting the cement sector and the rest of the construction industry in India at the moment are affected by the coronavirus outbreak, and government action to stop it, then there may be consequences later on. So far Global Cement hasn’t seen anything like this but the preparation for coronavirus advice from industry expert John Kilne has been to indentify and secure medium term needs, including refractory and critical spare parts and to consider potential disruption to supply chains.

In terms of what happens next once the lockdown ends in India (and other countries), one media commentator has described the response to coronavrius as the ‘hammer and the dance.’ The hammer is the economy-busting measures many governments have implemented to stop local epidemics. The dance is/are the measures that countries are using before and after an outbreak to keep it suppressed until a vaccine is developed. The worry for building material producers is how much the ‘dance’ disrupts business over the next year. All eyes will be on the East Asian producer market figures for the first quarter to see how this plays out.

Vietnam: Data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that clinker exports fell by nearly 40% year-on-year to 7.5Mt in the first quarter of 2020. Clinker export values dropped by 19% to US$360m in the same period, according to the Viet Nam News newspaper. Previously, the Ministry of Construction forecast that cement demand would increase by up to 5% to 103Mt in 2020 due to a recovery in the real estate market. Around a third of this was expected to be exported. Local consumption of cement and clinker grew by 2% year-on-year to 98Mt in 2019.

Pakistan: Data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) shows that local cement sales fell by 17% year-on-year to 3.2Mt in March 2020 from 3.9Mt in the same period of 2019 due to a contraction in construction activity, according to the News International newspaper. Exports rose by 5% to 0.51Mt but this is expected to fall as markets decline around the world due to the coronavirus outbreak. Both local sales and exports grew in the first two months of 2020.

The government has introduced an incentive package for the construction industry which is expected to help increase local cement consumption. The cement industry is also anticipating a reduction in federal excise duty, which it described as ‘very high’ regionally.

Uzbekistan: The total volume of cement produced in January and February 2020 in Uzbekistan was 1.02Mt, down by 20% year-on-year from 1.22Mt in the first two months of 2019. February 2020 production rose by 16% month-on-month and fell by 13% year-on-year, to 551,000t from 474,000t in January 2020 and 659,000t in February 2019.

Uzbekistan Newsline has reported that the level of utilisation of Uzbekistan’s 11.1Mt/yr cement production capacity in January and February 2020 was 55%.

Spain: Andalusian cement demand typified the slight slow down of the Spanish construction sector in the first two months of 2020, with a fall of 4.6% year-on-year to 435,000t from 441,000t in 2019.

Work continues as normal however Arquitectura y Sostenibilidad Online newspaper has reported that Andalusian Cement Manufacturers Association (AFCA) president Isidoro Miranda forecasts a sharp drop in consumption in March 2020. He said, "We support the communiqué of the Spanish Confederation of Associations of Manufacturers of Construction Products (CEPCO), regarding not stopping the works.” He called construction a ‘pillar of the Spanish economy,’ adding, “It is of utmost importance that all current works, including infrastructure works, maintain their activity.”