Displaying items by tag: election

India: JSW Cement may be planning to launch an initial public offering (IPO) to raise up to US$484m, according to Reuters.

JSW Cement managing director Parth Jindal reportedly said “In 2024, we are planning to take this company public, for which we will be filing the draft red herring prospectus in the next six months. We will be timing the market listing after the national elections.” Parliamentary and state legislative assembly elections are due to take place in September, November and December 2023.

Nigeria: Dangote Cement sold 13.4Mt of cement during the first half of 2023. Its sales volumes outside Nigeria were 5.4Mt, up by 12% year-on-year from 4.9Mt in the first half of 2022. The producer noted 'robust demand' in Ethiopia, the Republic of Congo, Senegal and Zambia. It reported revenues worth US$1.23bn in the first half of 2023, up by 17% from first-half 2022 levels. KOGI Reports News has reported that the producer's profit after tax rose by 3.8% in the half, to US$232m.

Chief executive officer Arvind Pathak said "Dangote Cement delivered positive results in the first half of the year. Our Nigeria operations achieved a 23% quarter-on-quarter recovery in sales during the second quarter of 2023, which was impacted by the general elections and the 'cash crunch.' However, the steep currency devaluation in mid-June slowed this volume recovery and increased already inflated operating costs." He added “We will continue to focus on our strategic growth priorities, hinged on our vision of transforming Africa and building a sustainable future. I am optimistic that our business remains resilient and well positioned to overcome unforeseen macroeconomic headwinds.”

Nigeria: Ifeanyi Chukwuma Odii, the People’s Democratic Party’s (PDP) candidate for governor of Ebonyi State, has pledged to revive the Nigeria Cement Factory at Nkalagu if elected in the forthcoming election. Odii said the successive administrations promised to revive the factory but failed to do so. Elections will be held on 11 March 2023.

Odii said, “As a governor, I will make sure the cement factory works, because many have promised to revamp the Nkalagu cement factory, but they failed. They failed because they lack the capacity. They failed because they are not entrepreneurs. I’m going to turn things around in Ebonyi state.”

Cement imports are back on the agenda this week in the Philippines with the news that the Tariff Commission has backed repealing the duties currently being implemented. If it’s anything like what happened last time, back in 2019, the commission’s opinion will once again be passed back to the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) for the final decision. The safeguard measure the commission wants to cut covers Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) and Blended Cement. It summarised the situation as follows, “There is no existence of an imminent threat of serious injury and significant overall impairment to the position of the domestic cement industry in the near future.”

The commission reviewed the sector between 2019 and 2021 and concluded that the domestic cement industry maintained its market position, increased its mill capacities, stabilised its manufacturing costs and improved its profitability. It found that local producers recovered their profits in 2021, following the coronavirus pandemic. It also noted that imports continued to rise whilst the safeguard measure was in force. Volumes of imported OPC and blended cements increased at levels above 10% year-on-year in both the 2019 – 2020 and 2020 – 2021 periods. They also rose by 7% year-on-year to 3.51Mt in the first half of 2022 compared to the half-year average from 2019 - 2021. In the commission’s view, relaxing the duties on imported cement would slow price rises for both locally produced and imported cement leading to an overall national economic benefit.

Local cement producers in the Philippines are likely to be unhappy with the Tariff Commission’s recommendation. The Cement Manufacturers Association of the Philippines (CEMAP) spent the summer of 2022 lobbying for the safeguard measure to be extended past October 2022. It too pointed out that imports of cement had continued to grow even whilst the increased duties had been levied from 2019. A few days before the commission’s decision was published, APO Cement said that it had temporarily suspended operations at its Davao terminal. The subsidiary of Cemex Philippines blamed imports of cement, particularly from Vietnam, for the decision.

Yet, the local sector has been active over the last year with a number of capacity upgrades being launched or underway. In January 2022 the government gave tax breaks to San Miguel Equity Investments for the construction of a 2Mt/yr cement plant in Mindanao. In February 2022 San Miguel subsidiary Southern Concrete Industries said it was doubling the capacity of an upgrade to its grinding plant at Davao del Sur, with initial commissioning planned in mid-2022. Meanwhile, Solid Cement’s upgrade of a new production line at its integrated plant in Antipolo, Rizal, has been ongoing since it officially started in 2019. The current commissioning date for the subsidiary of Cemex is now expected in early 2024. In August 2022 Taiheiyo Cement Philippines held a groundbreaking ceremony for the start of construction of a new production line at its integrated San Fernando plant in Cebu. The US$85m project is due to be commissioned in mid-2024. Finally, importer Philcement revealed in late September 2022 that it had taken out a US$1.73m loan for an expansion and upgrades to its Mariveles cement terminal in Bataan.

Holcim Philippines’ president and chief executive officer Horia Adrain told local press in July 2022 that the cement sector was continuing to recover in 2022, following the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, but that the pace would be slower. And so it proved, with reduced revenue, earnings and profits reported by Holcim for the first half of 2022. Costs rose due to higher fuel and energy prices like elsewhere in the world but a construction ban in connection with the presidential election in May 2022 didn’t help either. Both CRH and Cemex Philippines reported a similar situation in their financial results. However, Eagle Cement did manage to raise its revenue in the same period.

The Tariff Commission has been explicit with its opinion about the impact of imports upon the local cement sector. Investment by the local producers has been forthcoming with a number of new plants and upgrades on the way. Finally, despite the market recovering since 2020, there has been less growth in the first half of 2022 due to global energy prices and the country’s elections. This last point has handed a gift to the cement producers as any further reductions in growth can be blamed on imports, whether it is connected or not. One thing is certain, if or when the safeguard measures are lifted, then the regular calls to restrict imports will resume just like they did prior to 2019.

Bangladesh: The Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association (BCMA) has re-elected Alamgir Kabir as its president. Kabir is the vice-chairman of MI Cement Factory, which operates the Crown Cement band, according to the Daily Star newspaper. Md Shahidullah, the managing director of Metorcem Cement and chairman of Metrocem Group, and Zahir Uddin Ahmed, managing director of Confidence Cement, have also been re-elected as the first and second vice-president of the association respectively. The elections were held at the 20th annual general meeting of the BCMA in late October 2021.

India: A reduction in government spending and delays to the release of state funds ahead of India’s general election led to a slowdown in Indian cement demand growth in April and May 2019. Growth in cement consumption is expected to fall to a seven quarter low in the quarter to 30 June 2019.

“Pan-India cement demand will post muted 3-5% growth in the current quarter (the first quarter of the 2020 Fiscal Year), with states in the East (Bihar, Odisha) and South (Andhra Pradesh and Telangana and Tamil Nadu) moving at a snail's pace of 2-4%," said Hetal Gandhi, director at Crisil Research. However, Crisil expects demand to pick up in the second half of the 2020 fiscal year, with growth 6.0-7.5% for the 12 months to 31 March 2020 as a whole.

ARM Cement’s declining fortunes this week may signal the end of the current growth cycle in the Kenyan cement industry. The cement producer posted a 20% year-on-year drop in its sales revenue to US$52m for the first half of 2017. Its financial returns have been turbulent since 2015. However, inward investment from the UK’s CDC Group in 2016 had appeared to help the company enabling it to pay of debts and even consider an upgrade project to the grinding capacity at its Athi River plant.

Graph 1: Cement production in Kenya for first half of year, 2013 - 2017. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.

Graph 2: Cement consumption in Kenya for first five months of year, 2013 - 2017. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.

Unfortunately it now appears that the Kenyan cement market may have peaked in 2016. As can be seen from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics figures in Graph 1 and 2, production hit a high of 3.31Mt in the first half of 2016 and it has fallen to 3.18Mt for the same period in 2017. Consumption too has fallen, to 2.5Mt for the first five months of 2017. At the same time the value of building plans approved by the Nairobi City Council dropped by 12% to US$1.02bn for the first five months of 2017 with falls in both residential and non-residential applications although the decline in residential was more pronounced. One of the country’s larger infrastructure projects, the Standard Gauge Railway from Mombasa to Nairobi entered its final stage of construction towards the end of 2016 with the completion of track laying.

Bamburi Cement has also reported falling revenue and profit so far in 2017. Its turnover fell by 8% to US$170 and its profit decreased by 36% to US$18m for the half year. Bamburi blamed it on a contracting market, low private sector investment leading to residential sector issues, delays in some infrastructure projects and droughts. The drought also hit the company’s operating profit via higher energy costs. On the plus side though Bamburi’s subsidiary in neighbouring Uganda did record a good performance.

It’s likely that the general election in Kenya in early August 2017 has slowed down the construction industry through uncertainty about infrastructure investment and general fears about political unrest. Thankfully these latter concerns have appeared unfounded so far but the memory of the disorder following the poll in 2007, where over 1000 people died, remains acute. And of course the 2017 election is not over yet following the intervention of the Supreme Court to nullify the result of the first ballot and call for a second. A longer election period with the impending rerun will further add to the pressure on the construction and cement industries.

An industry report on East Africa in February 2017 by the Dyer & Blair Investment Bank fleshes out much of the situation in the region. One particular point it makes though is that, as it stands at present, building materials may be too expensive to grow the market fully. Dyer & Blair suggest that lower construction costs and more affordable home ownership methods might be the key to driving low end housing demands and in turn this might grow cement consumption.

With lots of new production capacity coming online both locally and in neighbouring countries such as Uganda and Ethiopia, the Kenyan cement market faces the dilemma of trying to balance the medium to long-term demographics with the picture on the ground. Low per capita cement consumption suggests growing markets but if the demand isn’t present in the short term then the impetus for cement producers to expand shrivels especially with aggressive imports, rising energy costs and growing local competition. Once the election period finishes the picture will be clearer but the boom times may have abated for now.

UK: Diana Montgomery, the chief executive of the Construction Products Association (CPA) has expressed frustration about the political deadlock that has resulted from the UK general election that took place on 8 June 2017. “From a business perspective, this is frustrating. We need certainty and clarity in order to address the serious challenges and opportunities facing UK construction over the next few years,” she said. She raised concerns over the delivery of the government’s National Infrastructure and Construction Pipeline, the government procurement process and its policy levers to address skills and housing shortages and the costs of energy and business rates to business. She added that she feared that the industry was facing a, “…period of greater instability at a critical time for our industry.”