Displaying items by tag: oversupply

Indonesia: PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP) recorded a 6% year-on-year drop in cement sales to 3.9Mt in the year to 31 March 2025, according to local press. INTP corporate secretary Dani Handajani said that the beginning of the year was typically a low-demand period due to weather, Ramadan and Eid holidays, but noted that the company's sales decline was smaller than the national industry’s 8% fall. Good news also came from the development of the new capital city Nusantara, which is back on track after being delayed. The project is expected to boost cement demand in Kalimantan.

Handajani warned that Indonesia’s cement oversupply problem will likely continue in 2025, and requires government policies like a ban on imports and the construction of new plants in the country.

Saudi Arabia: Arabian Cement Company said in its 2024 annual report that work is underway to increase the production capacity of its fifth production line by the fourth quarter of 2025. The company also said it is progressing on a project to connect its Rabigh plant to the Saudi Electricity Company grid under the liquid fuel displacement programme.

It forecast that cement demand will rise in 2025 due to government and Public Investment Fund-backed development projects in the Makkah region. The sector is reportedly operating at 63% capacity due to oversupply and weak demand, according to Zawya News, although an interest rate cut in September 2024 led to a revival of real estate projects.

Vietnam: The general director of Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation (VICEM), Nguyen Thanh Tung, says that Vietnam will suffer continued cement overcapacity amid high production costs in 2025. Full-year production is forecast at 125Mt, 96% greater than an expected domestic demand of 63.5Mt. Việt Nam News has reported that Vietnam’s cement exports face an on-going investigation in Taiwan, and are already subject to anti-dumping duties in the Philippines.

VICEM aims to raise its domestic clinker sales volumes by 8% year-on-year to 18Mt, in order to generate sales of US$1.16bn. To this end, Tung urged the government to adopt cement reinforcement in roadbuilding, as well as lifting the export tax on cement.

Vietnam: Deputy director of Tan Quang Cement, Tran Van Hung, has proposed reducing cement plant capacity to address the significant supply-demand imbalance. With a current supply of 120Mt/yr and a demand of only 56Mt/yr, the oversupply has led to price pressures, according to the Vietnam News Brief Service. This strategy aims to stabilise prices amid rising input costs and declining sales, further challenged by China's competitive stance and increased export taxes.

Van Hung has suggested regulating plant operations through energy limits and penalties to control supply and stabilise prices.

Nepal: Exports of cement to India via the Kakarvitta road border crossing in Jhapa totalled 50,000t in the 2024 financial year, which ended on 15 July 2024. KhabarHub News has reported that shipments had a combined value of US$3.81m. The Kakarvitta crossing had not previously served to convey major despatches of cement between the two countries. The cement industry in Jhapa is 50% dependent on export markets for its demand. Eight plants operate in the district, of which three currently sit idle due to 40% local oversupply.

Vietnam: The Ministry of Construction has proposed resuming cement sector planning to the prime minister, addressing the critical oversupply affecting the industry. Cement planning ceased six years ago, leading to unregulated project approvals. Vietnam now faces a surplus, with 92 production lines and a total capacity exceeding 120Mt/yr, while domestic consumption lags at under 60Mt/yr and exports are only 30Mt/yr. The construction slowdown exacerbates the issue, with redundant clinker production capacity at approximately 50Mt/yr, leading to risk of cement producers going bust, unless suitable measures are introduced. The latest figures from the Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA) show that cement plants are running at just 70-75% of their designed capacity.

Deputy CEO of Vicem, Nguyen Thanh Tung, said "Several production lines belonging to our system have to temporarily halt operation, incurred by low consumption and dwindling incomes. Despite all this, we commit to not selling products below the production cost."

China: Capacity utilisation in the Chinese cement sector has dropped to 50% in April 2024, down from 80% in April 2023. Reuters reported the development, citing data from China Coal Industry. Local coal suppliers reportedly face depressed demand.

Changes are underway in South Asia’s second largest cement sector, with two legal developments that affect the industry set in motion in the past week. At a national level, the Competition Commission of Pakistan recommended that the government require cement producers to include production and expiry dates on the labels of bagged cement. Meanwhile, in Pakistan’s largest province, Punjab, a new law tightened procedures around the establishment and expansion of cement plants. At the same time, the country’s cement producers began to publish their financial results for the first nine months of the 2024 financial year (FY2024).

During the nine-month period up to 31 March 2024, the Pakistani cement industry sold 34.5Mt of cement, up by 3% year-on-year. Producers have responded to the growth with capacity expansions, including the launch of the new 1.3Mt/yr Line 3 of Attock Cement’s Hub cement plant in Balochistan on 17 April 2023. China-based contractor Hefei Cement Research & Design executed the project, including installation of a Loesche LM 56.3+3 CS vertical roller mill, giving the Hub plant a new, expanded capacity of 3Mt/yr.

Pressure has eased on the operating costs of Pakistani cement production, as inflation slowed and the country received a new government in March 2024, following political unrest in 2022 and 2023. Coal prices also settled back to 2019 levels, after prolonged agitation. Pakistan Today News reported the value of future coal supply contracts as US$93/t for June 2024, down by 2% over six months from US$95/t for January 2024.

Nonetheless, cost optimisation remained a ‘strong focus’ in the growth strategy of Fauji Cement, which switched to using local and Afghan coal at its plants during the past nine months. Its reliance on captive power rose to 60% of consumption, thanks to its commissioning of new waste heat recovery and solar power capacity. During the first nine months of FY2024, the company’s year-on-year sales growth of 14% narrowly offset cost growth of 13%, leaving it with net profit growth of 1%.

Looking more closely, the latest sales data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) shows a stark divergence within cement producers’ markets. While exports recorded 68% year-on-year growth to 5.1Mt, domestic sales fell, by 4% to 29.4Mt. The association further breaks down Pakistani cement sales data into South Pakistan (Balochistan and Sindh) and North Pakistan (all other regions). Domestic sales dropped most sharply in South Pakistan, by 6% to 5.16Mt. In the North, they dropped by 3% to 24.2Mt. Part of the reason was a high base of comparison, following flooding-related reconstruction work nationally during the 2023 financial year. Meanwhile, the government finished rolling out track-and-trace on all cement despatches during the opening months of the current financial year, and commenced the implementation of axle load requirements for cement trucks. APCMA flagged both policies as potentially disruptive to its members’ domestic deliveries, amid a strong infrastructure project pipeline.

Pakistani producers suffer from overcapacity, but have established themselves as an important force in the global export market. They continue to locate new markets, including the UK in January 2024. Lucky Cement was among leading exporters overall, with a large share of its orders originating from Africa.

On 17 April 2024, the government of Punjab province set up a committee to assess new proposed cement projects, with the ultimate goal of conserving water. Falling water tables are considered a significant economic threat in agricultural Punjab. Besides completing an inspection by the new committee, proposed projects must also secure clearance from six different provincial government departments and the local government. While acknowledging the necessity of the cement industry, the government insisted that it will take legal action against any cement plant that exceeds water allowances.

Pakistan’s cement plants have grown in anticipation of a local market boom. Without this strong core of sales, underutilisation will remain troublesome, especially in North Pakistan where exposure is highest. At the same time, APCMA has given expression to the perceived lack of support affecting production and distribution. For an industry with expansionist aims, new restrictions on its growth and operations can feel like an existential menace.

Bangladesh: Crown Cement (formerly MI Cement Factory) officially commenced production from its Munshiganj grinding plant’s new Unit 6 on 14 January 2024. The Daily Star newspaper has reported that the new unit increases the Munshiganj plant’s capacity by 72% to 5.7Mt/yr. MI Cement Factory previously signed a US$22.8m syndicated loan facility for the expansion with Eastern Bank Limited on 28 May 2023. The producer said that delays with suppliers and currency crises postponed its delivery of the project. It first postponed the expansion – at that time valued at US$54.6m – due to domestic overcapacity amid the Covid-19 outbreak in October 2020.

Vietnam: State-owned Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation (Vicem) has projected that national full-year cement production will rise by 1.7% to 118Mt. Meanwhile, the cement market leader believes that demand will rise by 5.4% to 68.3Mt in 2023. This corresponds to an oversupply of 73%, compared to 78% in 2022.

Việt Nam News has reported that the government recorded a 7% year-on-year decline in Vietnamese cement production to 43Mt and a 10% drop in demand to 39Mt in the first half of 2023.