Displaying items by tag: trade

The second quarter of 2025 saw Russian GDP growth slow to 1.1% year-on-year, with a revised full-year growth forecast of 0.9%.¹ An economy bulked up on injections of military spending (budgeted at 33% of GDP in 2025)² since the invasion of Ukraine may slowly be keeling over. Faced with this eventuality, the Russian cement industry will likely be reviewing strategies not to be dragged down with the rest of the economy.

Prior to the release of the latest economic data, Russian construction had been forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.5% in 2026 – 2029. Drivers included anticipated investments in oil and gas, transport, airports and renewable energy.

Purely in cement terms, the data no longer appear to corroborate this outlook. Market leader Cemros expects total domestic demand to drop from 67Mt in 2024, by 10 – 15% year-on-year, to 57 – 60.3Mt in 2025. In the first half of the year, Russia consumed 28.4Mt of cement, just 4% above production volumes of 27.2Mt in the same period. Cemros cited ‘declining cement consumption’ to account for its upcoming instigation of a four-day working week at its plants across Russia from October 2025.

On 12 August 2025, Cemros spoke out about a threat to the interests of the domestic industry: increased imports from Belarus. It said that Belarus’ three-plant industry is supplying Russia with cement at a rate equivalent to the combined production volumes of two-to-three cement plants. Time to cap them, it told the government, suggesting a ceiling of 1.5Mt/yr.
The producer may have received a shock on 18 August 2025, when Belarus-based Krasnoselskstroymaterialy announced an upcoming US$100m upgrade to its 700,000t/yr Vaŭkavysk cement plant in Grobno Oblast, Belarus.

By that time, the Russian cement association, Soyuzcement, had already called for an anti-dumping investigation into all cement imports. It expects that import volumes of 3.74Mt in 2024 may rise to 5Mt/yr ‘in the near-term future.’

Lingering behind these discussions is the fact of high operating costs, partly precipitated by Russia’s continuing burden of international sanctions.

Here, the cement sector’s hopes are riding on a very particular marketing campaign: that of President Vladimir Putin on the global diplomatic circuit. He must sell his war (or peace on his terms) in a way that fends off increased international sanctions or support for Ukraine. Existing sanctions were on show at the Alaska Summit in Anchorage, US, on 15 August 2025, where the Russian leader made his pitch to US President Donald Trump – including a request for de-sanctioning, alongside various proposed punishment measures against Ukraine. Before travelling back to Moscow, the Russian delegation reportedly had to offer to pay cash for aeroplane fuel.³

Though President Trump did not secure a ceasefire, he nonetheless held back from making good on threatened new sanctions, and rated the Alaska Summit ‘10/10.’⁴ Putin might be equally pleased with the inconclusive outcome as precisely the goal of all his obfuscations. For Russia’s cement producers, costs won’t suddenly rise, but nor will they come down any time soon.

Far from sitting idly by, the industry is seeking new ways to actualise the value of its product. On 20 August 2025, Soyuzcement hosted a meeting of nine producers and four retail chains to strategise ways to increase sales of bagged cement. It will be subject to mandatory digital labelling from 1 October 2025. Discussions included the possibility of batch labelling of bags on the pallet for ease of scanning at retail outlets.

For now, producers’ online media spaces give the impression of work continuing as usual. On 18 August 2025, Cemros announced a US$186,000 renovation of buildings at its Mikhailovsk building materials plant in Volgograd Oblast.

The cement business in Russia is big, established and diffuse. Transformation has been its defining feature in the 33 years since the fall of the USSR, including in the relatively stable latter decades of that period. Should macroeconomic or geopolitical events overtake it once again, we can expect some shapeshifting – but also survival.

References

1. Reuters, ‘Russia's GDP growth slows to 1.1% in Q2, says Rosstat,’ 13 August 2025, www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-gdp-growth-slows-11-q2-says-rosstat-2025-08-13/

2. Global Data, ‘Russia Construction Market Size,’ 30 June 2025, www.globaldata.com/store/report/russia-construction-market-analysis/

3. Spiegel, ‘Russen boten Rubio zufolge Barzahlung für Betankung ihrer Flugzeuge an,’ 18 August 2025, www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/trump-putin-gipfel-russen-boten-offensichtlich-barzahlung-fuer-betankung-ihrer-flugzeuge-an-a-fdd9303c-546a-43aa-89dd-4f746b8e9df3

4. Focus, ‘Jäger deutlich: "Putin verkauft Trump eine Illusion - und hat ihn jetzt in der Hand",’ 16 August 2025, www.focus.de/politik/ausland/jaeger-putin-braucht-trump-nicht-zu-fuerchten-er-hat-trump-jetzt-in-der-hand_67785013-a14b-485c-9a4a-51755ec483fa.html

Mexico: Cement consumption fell by 8 – 10% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period of 2024, according to José María Barroso Martínez, CEO of Cementos Moctezuma. He attributed the drop to factors such as the change of government in Mexico, the US government's tariff policy, a decrease in small-scale private works and on-going negotiations towards a replacement for the United States – Mexico – Canada Agreement (USMCA) for North American free trade, among other factors.

In an interview with Grupo Reforma News, Martínez said “Cement is the first variable that moves when the economy accelerates or decelerates. In the second half of 2025 we can achieve additional volumes to correct the trend and close the year similar 2024, when the industry reached close to 42Mt sold."

Taiwan: The Customs Administration has imposed five-year anti-dumping duties on Portland cement and clinker imported from Vietnam, according to the Taipei Times. Cement imported from Long Son and affiliate Long Son Industrials faces a 14% tariff, Thang Long Cement will be taxed at 19%, while Vissai Ninh Binh, Xuan Thanh Cement and Vicem Ha Tien Cement will be subject to a 15% rate. All other Vietnam-based producers and exporters will be taxed at 23%.

The Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Economic Affairs confirmed that companies had dumped cement and ‘caused substantial harm’ to local producers in a statement. The Ministry also found no sufficient evidence that the duties would have a markedly negative effect on Vietnam’s ‘overall economic situation.’

An investigation into dumping of cement from Vietnam began in August 2024 after the Taiwan Cement Industry Association applied for anti-dumping duties, citing suspected dumping and harm to domestic industries.

Kyrgyzstan: Imports of Portland cement from China in June 2025 rose 378% year-on-year to 4000t, according to China’s General Administration of Customs. The rise follows a May 2025 delivery of 2000t, after 18 months of negligible or no imports.

South Korea/Algeria: The Korea Cement Association and the Algerian Cement Industry Group (GICA) have signed a memorandum of understanding to expand cooperation following a delegation visit to the country, led by vice president Lee Chang-ki and Hanil Cement Dan-yang plant head Jeon Jae-cheol. Chosun Biz news reported that Algeria ‘requested for help’ from Korea, and that the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy promoted the resumption of the Korea-Algeria economic Joint Committee meetings, which had been suspended since 2007.

Lee Chang-ki announced the ‘2050 Carbon Neutral Strategy for the Korean Cement Industry’, and the parties had the opportunity to visit Algerian cement plants and discuss future cooperation. The two parties agreed to form an operating committee to oversee implementation over the next two years.

Pakistan: Lucky Cement exported over 3Mt of cement and clinker by sea in the 2024–25 financial year, the highest on record for the company and for Pakistan, according to Mettis Link News. The producer accounted for 42% of the country’s total cement and clinker exports during this period. The company said that 60% of the energy used for the export operations came from renewable sources, including wind, solar and waste heat recovery.

China/Russia: Jinyu Jidong Cement has despatched its first batch of cement products to Russia, following final quality inspection and packaging. The company, part of the Jinyu Group, aims to strengthen Sino-Russian Far East cooperation and expand into international markets. According to local press, it has passed the Russian GOST certification audit, becoming one of the first cement producers in Heilongjiang Province to be approved for the export of building materials to Russia.

Australia: Minister for Climate Change and Minister Chris Bowen says that the government is ‘considering’ the enactment of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to prevent carbon leakage from high emissions-intensity products, including cement.

The Australian Parliament committed to 43% national CO₂ emissions reduction between 2005 and 2030 in 2022, and capped emitters’ individual carbon footprints in 2023. Final advice from a government Carbon Leakage Review was due after May 2025, and was possibly complicated by on-going US climate and trade reforms under President Trump. The Australian Cement Industry Federation bemoaned a lack of action on carbon leakage in March 2025. It warned of jeopardy to both decarbonisation and 1400 jobs in the Australian cement sector.

Australia’s construction industry imported 40% of its cement used in 2024.

Jordan: Exports to Syria reached record levels on 2 June 2025, with 1700 trucks crossing the Jaber border, more than double the usual daily average, according to Amman Chamber of Commerce president Khalil Haj Tawfiq.

Haj Tawfiq said “Cement was the primary export, marking a significant boost in construction-related trade,” adding that “This level of export activity is unprecedented.”

Cement reportedly accounted for more than 10,654 truckloads. Haj Tawfiq attributed the rise in exports to Syria to increased trade activity ahead of Eid Al Adha and renewed economic cooperation between the two countries, particularly around reconstruction efforts.

US: Heidelberg Materials North America is upgrading its Cementon cement distribution terminal in New York. The producer will build a new packaging line with a 200t/hr Haver & Boecker rotary packing machine and a fully-automated Beumer palletising system. It will also expand its cement storage silos in order to support the growth of its bulk cement sales.