India: Cement manufacturers in India have seen a significant turn in fortunes since the start of 2020 due to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. Producers, which had been raising prices and selling high volumes at the start of the year, are seeing a slump in demand in the wake of a nation-wide lockdown that began in mid-March 2020. Motilal Oswal Financial Services estimates that cement sales in March 2020 will be 40% lower than those seen in March 2019. Even after the lockdown ends, there will be severe knock-on effects for the remainder of India’s 2021 Fiscal Year (FY2021), which ends on 31 March 2021. This is expected to be due to weak economic growth, government cuts in spending on infrastructure and lower real estate demand.
Indeed, ratings agency CRISIL expects cement demand in India to contract by at least 10 - 15% in FY2021 compared to FY2020, with a ‘worst-case scenario’ of up to a 25% reduction.
The only respite that cement manufacturers may see is on the logistics side. With lower production volumes, transporters are offering more concessions on freight rates that will further help with costs, according to analysts. Low oil prices will benefit producers, while Petcoke prices may also remain relatively low.
