US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has predicted a rise in US cement demand in 2021 and 2022 in its Spring 2021 Cement Consumption and Construction Activity Outlook. The report stated that mortgage rates are expected to remain low throughout 2021, prompting single-family construction. Non-residential cement consumption declines are expected to continue from 2020 in to 2021 and 2022, though with decreasing impact. Predicted oil price rises will increase oil well cement consumption.
The association welcomed a proposed US$2.2Tn eight-year federal government infrastructure spending programme. Chief economist and senior vice president Ed Sullivan warned of the proposal’s inherent political weakness in its inclusion of US$1.2Tn-worth of low or no-cement projects. He said that the opposition would latch on to this as grounds to oppose the necessary tax rises for the funding.
Sullivan said, “This recovery is predicated on continued progress in fighting Covid-19. The rapid pace of vaccinations and increased mask usage have resulted in a decline in death rates from over 3,000 daily in January 2021 to less than 825 daily in April 2021.” said Sullivan. “The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)’s current forecast suggests a sustained and significant decline in daily Covid-19 deaths to less than 170. Progress associated with Covid-19 is the critical factor in the near-term outlook.” He added, “After committing to spending US$5.2Tn in Covid-19 relief and adding another US$2.0Tn in operations, the federal US debt could rise by US$7.0Tn in 2020 - 2021. This puts the discussion of the Biden US$2.2Tn infrastructure proposal into context. The proposal must pay for itself, which means higher taxes. While investing in traditional infrastructure such as roads and bridges has bi-partisan appeal, tax increases and some programmes dubiously labelled as infrastructure have caused concern. This concern threatens the potential passage of the initiative.”
