Tomorrow (18 September 2014) the residents of Scotland, one of the UK's four 'home nations', will vote in a referendum. The question will be whether or not the country should leave the UK and become fully independent. Rival 'Yes' and 'No' campaigns have spent the best part of two years trying to convince the electorate of the benefits of either leaving or staying in the UK.
Leaving the political discussion to one side, where would a 'Yes' vote leave the Scottish cement industry? The only cement plant in Scotland is the 1Mt/yr Lafarge Tarmac plant at Dunbar, East Lothian, so on the face of it, Scotland's cement industry would be 100% owned by one operator. At this stage, however, it is (hopefully) fair to assume that relations between Scotland and the rest of the UK should be cordial enough to allow normal supply chains and contracts to continue over the border. Lafarge Tarmac, or any future operator, should expect business as (mostly) usual.
However, there are potential issues when it comes to the ongoing UK Competition Commission's (CC) investigation into competition in the UK cement and blast furnace slag markets. The removal of Dunbar from the list of UK cement assets is small but significant. Would the CC come to the same conclusion regardless of the outcome of the Scottish vote? And (how) would any decisions filter into the EU-wide investigations into the LafargeHolcim merger disposals?
Part of the discussion around Scottish independence has been the suggestion that Welsh nationalists might ask for a similar referendum in the event of a Scottish 'Yes.' In our cement plant thought experiment, this has much more of an effect on the current UK situation, with two Welsh plants at Mold, Flintshire and Aberthaw, Roose, which is also a Lafarge Tarmac plant. This would really re-shape the former UK's cement industry and pose new questions for regulators. Elsewhere, Northern Ireland's only cement plant is also a Lafarge Tarmac facility.
Also, a 'Yes' for Scotland has the potential to reverberate around the rest of the European Union (EU). Catalonia, the autonomous region in Spain, has a long-standing and separate identity to the rest of Spain. By contrast to Scotland, its cement industry is massive, with Ciment Català listing eight plants across four operators. If it left Spain, there would be 30 plants in the country instead of 38.
More provocatively, Belgium is a country that, while at the centre of Europe, is often divided at home. French-speaking Wallonia has all five of Belgium's cement plants, but separation between this region and the Dutch-speaking Flemish region would require a number of unlikely changes.
Elsewhere, there are calls to separate the north of Italy from the south, although cement plants are roughly in proportion throughout the country. In France, Brittany also has its fair share of nationalist sentiment. However, any moves here would not trouble the French operators - there are no cement plants in Brittany. Normandy is in the same situation, although a Breton would probably claim that Normandy is 'just part of France.'
The above is only a scratch on the surface. A quick internet search for 'separatist movements in Europe' leads to a large number of hits. The most illustrative of the links is this map: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_separatist_movements_in_Europe#mediaviewer/File:Active_separatist_movements_in_the_European_Union.png
It appears that many EU residents would like the map of Europe redrawn.
Looking outside of the EU, the cement industry of Texas has the largest cement industry of all US states. With huge oil reserves, a large and growing population and fast development, Texas' cement industry would thrive in the event of its secession. Discussion of this was particularly strong following the re-election of President Barack Obama in 2012.
Of course, much of the above is hypothetical... or is it? Just two year's ago nobody was talking about Scottish independence. We will find out tomorrow if Europe will get a new (Scottish) cement industry.
