Analysis

The past few weeks have been notable for the high number of cement plant projects announced. Aside from further Dangote developments in Africa, (which doesn't seem to be able to go a week without announcing some 'milestone' or another,) a growing number have been in 'new' markets, especially in Central Asia.

The list from the past month or so is impressive. In east Asia Myanmar's Ait Thit Man group has announced that it will double its capacity from 5000t/day to 10,000t/day. In the south, Shree Cement wants to build another new facility in India. In west Asia, Pakistan, a country that has not seen significant cement capacity investment in the past few years, will be getting a new plant in Salt Range courtesy of China's Yantai Yantai Baoqiao Jinhong.

Turkmenistan looks set to build a 1Mt/yr plant as part of a massive government industrial stimulus package. China's Jilong Group wants to build a 0.8Mt/yr plant in Issyk Kul, Krygyzstan. Another Chinese producer, Xinjiang Tianshan will be bringing a 1.2Mt/yr plant to Georgia. Even today (Wednesday 30 September 2015), we have heard that there will be further Chinese investment, this time by Shangfeng Cement. It has announced financing for two new plants: in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Both are set to be 1.2Mt/yr facilities.

Two trends are clear from this. 1. Land-locked Central Asian and other relatively undeveloped countries elsewhere in Asia are finally coming to the cement plant party. 2. It is the Chinese producers that have the upper hand in these markets. This is based partly on cultural, political, geographical and historic links between China and these former Soviet nations. It is partly due to the lower 'face value' cost of Chinese equipment compared to European manufacturers. (The efficiency with which the lower cost equipment is installed and its running costs remain potential pitfalls, according to the Europeans.) Finally, it has a lot to do with the collapse of domestic demand for cement plants in China itself, where the economy continues to teeter on the brink.

The steady rise of the Central Asian cement sector and the increasing international activities of Chinese cement plant manufacturers have been 'on the cards' for years. To date, they have been trends waiting to happen, but 2015 looks to be the year that these factors finally combined and translated into large numbers of projects.

For Central Asian countries the prospects that come with a larger and more dynamic cement industry should enable greater independence, accelerated infrastructure development and economic growth. For the Chinese, setting up cement plants in Central Asia is a natural expansion of its multi-billion dollar activities in the African cement sector, where Sinoma recently signed a massive deal with Dangote Cement. As noted previously in this column, Africa can't continue to add capacity at the current rate forever.

For European manufacturers of cement plants, the other side of this story is not as pretty. AGAB, the large plant manufacturing group of Germany's Verband Deutscher Maschinen- und Anlagenbau (VDMA), has recently released its Status Report 2014/2015, which reports on activities from 2014. AGAB members' cement plant order volume fell by an incredible 63% in 2014 to Euro198m. This is a fall from Euro529m in 2013 and six times lower than the Euro1.2bn peak of 2008. Some of this is domestically driven but the vast majority of it is export markets.

The same report also shows that, for construction of all types of large industrial plants, Chinese producers have increased their global market share from 5% in 2006 to 17% in 2014. Over the same period, Western European producers have seen their share fall from 45% to 33%, although an increase in overall project volumes mean that these producers received roughly the same value of orders in each year. US suppliers, although not a major consideration for the cement sector, saw their share of orders fall from 22% to 20%. Japan also lost a third of its stake over the same period, falling from 15% of sales in 2006 to just 10% in 2014.

While AGAB's report anticipates increased competition from Chinese producers, it is by no means all 'doom and gloom' for Europe's traditional large plant manufacturers. It highlights the fact that Russia, the largest single market for heavy plant in 2014 and a significant consumer of European-made cement equipment, has decided against Chinese equipment in some cases. It also highlighted that the weakness of the Euro helps exports from Germany and the rest of the Eurozone and suggests that the sector should look to increase its service and consultation offering in order to build on its existing reputation for high quality equipment.

San Miguel Corporation has upped the pace of its capacity expansion this week to a US$1bn investment towards five new 2Mt/yr cement plants in the Philippines. The announcement builds on its previous plans to build two plants for US$800m. At that time construction had already begun at subsidiary Northern Cement's plant in Pangasinan and Quezon. Plants in Bulacan, Cebu and Davao have now joined the list for completion in 2017.

The scale of this expansion is vast considering that the Philippines has 17 active cement plants with a total integrated production capacity of 24.6Mt/yr. San Miguel president and COO Ramon Ang's comments to media that if there were an oversupply of cement the market would correct itself in a couple of years may sound flippant to anyone who isn't the head of a multi-billion dollar corporation. However, if achieved it will propel the San Miguel subsidiaries from the country's fourth largest cement producer to its largest.

However each of the other major producers also have their own expansion plan in various stages of completion. Holcim Philippines announced US$40m plans in May 2015 to expand its production capacity to 10Mt/yr by the end of 2016, mainly through reviving existing projects. Cemex announced plans in May 2015 to spend US$300m towards building a new 1.5Mt/yr integrated line at its Solid Plant. Lafarge Republic had plans in April 2015 to raise its cement output through the opening of grinding plants at its Rizal and Bulacan cement plants. The former was opened in April 2015 but this is the one plant that hasn't been acquired by CRH following the sale of Lafarge Republic in the run-up to the LafargeHolcim merger. The latter was last reported due for opening in December 2015.

The big change in the Philippine cement industry in 2015 has been the merger of Lafarge and Holcim to form LafargeHolcim. Given that Lafarge Republic and Holcim Philippines held over 55% of the country's production capacity before the merger, it was inevitable that they would be forced to sell off assets. In the end CRH picked up most of Lafarge Republic's cement assets bar the Teresa Plant in Rizal, which stayed with Holcim. The merger has skewed the market towards one clear leader, LafargeHolcim (9.5Mt/yr), followed by Cemex (4.73Mt/yr) and CRH (4.19Mt/yr) with similarly sized cement production bases. These producers are then chased by San Miguel (2.15Mt/yr) and the other smaller firms. If San Miguel succeeds in its expansion strategy then the market will change once again.

Cement sales rose by 11.1% to 11.9Mt in the first half of 2015 according to the Cement Manufacturers Association of the Philippines (CeMAP). They attributed this growth to strong construction activity helped by increases in government infrastructure spending. Alongside this, gross domestic product (GDP) is predicted to rise by 6% in 2015 and 6.3% in 2016 by the Asian Development Bank. Another promising sign for development came from a study by Antoinette Rosete of the University of Santo Tomas which forecast that cement demand would meet 27Mt/yr. Capacity utilisation rates rose to 85% from 68% in 2014 according to Department of Trade and Industry data.

With this kind of encouragement, no wonder San Miguel is betting on such a large expansion project. If Rosete's forecast and capacity utilisation rates hold then the Philippines might need a capacity base of around 36Mt/yr. San Miguel's growth will fill that gap.

Of course other players might have their own ideas about giving away market share. LafargeHolcim and Cemex are likely to be saddled with debt or existing projects. CRH meanwhile is the wildcard as its expansion strategy is opaque. In recent years it has seemed to focus on acquisitions over building its own projects. The Euro5.2bn the company has spent on buying Lafarge and Holcim assets this year seems likely to slow down investment on any internal development plans. However CRH is bringing in local partner Aboitiz in the Philipines to help with a US$400m loan.

The Philippines is clearly an exciting market for the cement industry at the moment. One consequence of the current situation is that it may signal what CRH's global intentions are following the LafargeHolcim merger. If it decides or is able to start building new capacity then it may reveal the start of a new phase for the Ireland-based multinational.

Cement shortages have been reported again in western Argentina this week. The story has been simmering over the summer in Mendoza and San Juan Provinces with local construction firms becoming irate with delays to their projects.

The cause is reported by local media to be a broken raw mill at Holcim Argentina's Capdeville cement plant north of the city of Mendoza. Production has been reduced by 2400t/month of cement from the 0.66Mt/yr capacity plant. Unfortunately, cement plants in neighbouring states have lowered their deliveries. Subsequently prices are estimated to have risen by 8 – 10% in July and August 2015 alone..

To put some perspective on the cement shortage, the Cuyo region of Argentina (comprising Mendoza, San Juan and San Luis Provinces) consumed just over 1Mt of cement in 2014 compared to 11Mt for the entire country. However all three provinces in the region are above the national mean cement consumption of 271kg/capita.

Despite the bottleneck in the provinces, the Asociacion de Fabricantes de Cemento (AFCP) recently revised its cement sales forecast for 2015 upwards to over 12Mt, the highest level on record. It attributed the rise demand to public infrastructure projects, house building and the Argentina Credit Programme (ProCreAr). Total despatches to the end of August 2015 were 7.99Mt, a rise of 8.73% or 641,664t from 7.35Mt in August 2014.

This followed a poor year in 2014 when national cement consumption fell by 3.5% year-on-year according to local press. The AFCP reported a fall in production by 4.1% to 11.4Mt.

Notably for the current news story, San Juan Province saw one of the biggest sales drops in 2014 at 10.5%. As InterCement (through its subsidiary Loma Negra) commented in its annual report, the country suffered both a gross domestic product (GDP) contraction of 1% in 2014 and instability in its financial markets that adversely affected consumption. Both the other major cement producers, Cementos Avellaneda (a subsidiary of Cementos Molins) and Holcim Argentina, also reported poor sales in 2014. Under these conditions it is unsurprising that consumers have angered due to localised cement shortages. There should be lots of cement available!

Into 2015, Holcim reported increased cement volumes in the first half of 2015 due to high demand in the Cordoba Province that neighbours Mendoza Province. By contrast, InterCement forecast in its 2014 annual report that it expected sales to remain lower than the high set in 2013. However it also expected continued demand for cement to reflect a response to the economic situation in Argentina with private investors moving to real estate for security.

InterCement and the rest will be monitoring Argentina's economy very closely for the remainder of 2015. Presidential elections are due in October that may change the current scenario. For the moment though the country remains in recession but it has managed to bring in foreign investment. Regardless of this though, the quicker Holcim Argentina and the others address the shortage in Mendoza the better. Demand may not last forever.

Plans for the former Shoreham cement plant on the south coast of England took an exciting turn towards the end of 2014. Zero carbon design firm Zedfactory announced its plans to regenerate the brownfield site into an eco-resort featuring holiday homes, performance space, affordable homes, a hotel and conference centre, a watersports venue, wildlife preserves and more. Or, ' hobbit homes' as the Daily Mail put it when it covered the story six months later.

This raises the question of what happens to cement plants when they close?

In the UK, where a housing shortage in certain areas collide with NIMBY (not in my back yard) attitudes and strict planning regulations, former industrial or brownfield sites are prime sites for new housing developments. Subsequently, old cement plants are attractive to builders to build houses. Two examples of current sites heading this way include the former Cemex plant in Barrington, Cambridgeshire and the former Lafarge Eastgate plant in County Durham. Both sites have gained planning permission and were still in the pre-building stage according to local press reports in mid-2015. Dylan Moore's website 'Cement Plants and Kilns in Britain and Ireland' provides a good resource on former plants in the UK and Ireland.

One of the jokes about classic UK science-fiction television series Dr Who was that during the 1970s it was either filmed on cheap studio sets or in quarries. Endless encounters with alien beings took place in cement plant quarries including Lafarge Northfleet (alien in spacesuits), Lafarge Aberthaw (tentacle faced aliens), Hanson Ketton (Arthurian knights who may in fact be aliens...) and many more. Indeed, one of the conditions of the proposed Lafarge Eastgate sale in March 2015 was that a television production company could continue to use the quarry to film an adaptation of Beowulf for five years!

On the more imaginative side of what to do with old plants, La Fabrica near Barcelona is a spectacular example. Architect Ricardo Bofill converted a 19th century plant into his firm's head office, La Fabrica, and his own personal residence. As Ricardo Bofill Taller de Arquitectura's website puts it, "Eight silos remained, which became offices, a models laboratory, archives, a library, a projections room and a gigantic space known as 'The Cathedral', used for exhibitions, concerts and a whole range of cultural functions linked to the professional activities of the architect." Architecturally the project refers to Catalan Civic Gothic style with surrealist elements.

This sense of entertainment from industrial architecture was continued by sculptor Bob Cassilly in St Louis, USA who decided to build Cementland. Cassilly purchased the former plant and slowly assembled his clinker-themed version of Disneyland. Unfortunately he died in 2001 following an accident with a bulldozer at the site before he finished.

More and more former cement plants will be seeking new purposes as Europe rationalises its cement industries and excess capacity is eliminated. China too faces similar issues as it consolidates its industry. Most will probably lie fallow before eventually being knocked down and then turned into something following the cheapest economic path forward. With luck though, some will follow the dreams of Zedfactory and people like Ricardo Bofill and Bob Cassilly.

Tell Global Cement what has happened to old cement plants that you know about via our LinkedIn Group.

South African cement producers may be cheered this week with the news that Iranian cement is causing grief in Pakistan once more. Imported cement from Iran is allegedly undercutting local product in Pakistan through massive 'under-invoicing.' Sources quoted in Pakistan – itself a cement exporter (!) – described the situation as 'incomprehensible.'

The issue here is that Iran is doing to South Africa what Pakistan is doing to South Africa: selling cement cheaper than locally produced product. It's especially ironic this week because one Pakistani cement producer, Lucky Cement, is taking the fight against South African anti-dumping duties to the courts.

A report from July 2015 reckoned that Pakistan's cement exports might drop by 10 – 15% at the start of 2016 as economic sanctions on Iran are lifted. The report had a bit more sense than the usual scaremongering. It predicted that removing sanctions in Iran would not affect competition in Afghanistan as Iranian producers generally targeted Kandahar.

Despite this, cement exports to Afghanistan from Pakistan hit a high of 4.73Mt in the 2010 – 2011 financial year, according to All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) data. Since then they dwindled slightly for the next couple of years before decreasing more sharply from mid-2013. Overall exports fell by 11.57% to 7.2Mt in the 2014 – 2015 period. Pakistan's exports to Afghanistan may have been hit by the departure of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) forces and a new cement plant in neighbouring Tajikistan.

In part the battle seems to be about tax. In June 2015 the APCMA lobbied the Pakistan government to cut duties. At the time these included a 5% federal excise duty and a 17% general sales tax on the retail price of cement. One APCMA spokesman reckoned that these taxes added US$1.56 per bag of cement. More recently the APCMA rallied against a tax on cement exports and an increase in import duties on coal. In this climate, repeated news stories on Iranian exports to Pakistan dodging taxes don't sound so good.

Meanwhile, back in South Africa, Lucky Cement has started to take legal action against anti-dumping duties imposed upon its cement exports by the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC). The ITAC imposed provisional anti-dumping duties of 14.3 – 77.2% on Portland Cement originating in or imported from Pakistan from 15 May 2015 for six months. The duty was imposed on bagged cement. Pakistan-based cement producers may defend themselves by saying that they are following the laws of the countries they are exporting to. In theory Iranian exports to Pakistan that pay the correct taxes should be the same price as Pakistani products.

What this debacle shows is that things could get a whole lot worse for coastal cement markets within easy reach of Iran once the sanctions fall. National bodies like the ITAC across the Middle East, South Asia and East Africa should start tightening up their import policies now.