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Cement and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Economic Community
Written by Global Cement staff
25 February 2014
There has been an interesting knock-on effect from further economic integration of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) this week. Holcim Philippines may delay the construction of a 2.5Mt/yr cement plant in Bulacan province due to a drop in import tariffs in 2015. Vietnam or Indonesia were named as possible sources of clinker due to their excess capacity.
The ASEAN group comprises 10 countries including Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia. Their respective cement production capacities range from 0.3Mt/yr at a clinker grinding plant in Singapore to Indonesia's integrated cement production capacity of 45Mt/yr. In total the ASEAN countries have a production capacity of around 220Mt/yr for a population of about 600m with national gross domestic products (GDP) per capita ranging from US$900 (Laos) to US$52,000 (Singapore).
One scenario for cement producers in the ASEAN countries is that they might be swamped by exports from places like Vietnam. That country had a production capacity of 73Mt/yr in 2013 with cement sales predicted to rise to 63Mt in 2014. Assuming the government released figures are correct, that leaves at least a 10Mt of cement production-sales gap that could torpedo a neighbouring country's cement industry in the free trade area.
Indonesia, the other potential source of clinker that Holcim Philippines mentioned, has seen construction growth slow and production capacity grow. Holcim reported in its nine-month report in November 2013 that, while national cement sales had risen by 5.3% to 41.6Mt, supply capacity had risen by 9% to 59Mt/yr. Assuming equal sales distribution throughout this suggests a capacity gap of 4Mt.
Some politicians in the region have complained that impending free trade area will create winners and losers. At a recent ASEAN meeting in Yangon, Myanmar a Myanmar planning minister raised the issue of a development gap within the ASEAN region calling for renegotiation for countries like Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos.
Meanwhile both the cement industries in Vietnam and Indonesia have clearly anticipated the implications of the ASEAN Economic Community. The Vietnam National Cement Association expects to remain competitive within the ASEAN region and against Chinese imports after 2015. In Indonesia State Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan stated this week that the cement industry was ready for the ASEAN Economic Community thanks to the government's strategy to consolidate its major cement producers within one company, Semen Indonesia. Consistent cement industry growth in South East Asia may be about to change.
Can the Egyptian cement industry secure its fuel supplies?
Written by Global Cement staff
19 February 2014
Suez Cement and Italcementi's first waste treatment plant in Egypt was inaugurated this week. The project uses 45,000t of household waste to produce 35,000t of alternative fuel annually. Given Egypt's on-going fuel concerns the project will be watched closely.
Italcementi has much riding on the success of the project. It has five integrated cement plants in the country. As reported in early February 2014, the cement producer suffered reduced production capacity in Egypt despite 'potential' domestic demand due to limited energy availability. Cement sales volumes in Egypt for Italcementi have continually fallen since 2011, accelerating from a 5.4% year-on-year reduction in 2011 to a 17.6% year-on-year reduction in 2013. Yet, despite this, rebounding domestic demand was reported in 2012 and 2013.
It must be extremely frustrating for Italcementi. It has the production capacity, it has demand but it doesn't have the fuel to power its lines. Any additional fuel will be welcome. At a rough and conservative rate of 200kg of fuel per tonne of cement produced, Italcementi and Suez Cement's new alternative fuel stream could help to produce 175,000t of cement or about 1.5% of the cement producer's clinker production capacity of 12Mt/yr.
Lafarge, with its mega 10.6Mt/yr cement plant outside of Cairo, hadn't suffered (publicly) as much as Italcementi from fuel shortages until the publication of its financial results for 2013. Although sales had decreased year-on-year since 2009, this has been blamed on competition. Now it has been announced that cement volumes decreased by 30% in the first half of 2013 due to shortages of gas. This was mitigated through fuel substitution to a 19% drop in the third quarter and a 7% drop in the fourth quarter.
However, Lafarge's strategy for fuel security may be threatened as the Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs ordered the producer to stop preparations to build storage units for petcoke in February 2014 citing environmental and economic reasons. What happening here is unclear given that the Egyptian government has been encouraging cement producers to move away from using natural gas.
The examples above show the reactions two multinational cement producers, Italcementi and Lafarge, have made to secure their fuel supplies. The outcomes remain uncertain.
In other news, Shijiazhuang in Hebei province in China has started the demolition of 17 (!) more cement plants. This follows 18 plants that were demolished in December 2013. In total, 18.5Mt/yr of cement production capacity has been torn down.
This is more than the cement production output of most European countries or any single US state! Where was this cement going previously? What were the effects on the price of cement in China? Who is taking the loss for the destruction of this industrial production capacity? BBC News Business Editor Robert Peston has some ideas.
European cement production in 2013 – Problems head east
Written by Global Cement staff
12 February 2014
Recovery in the European cement markets arrived slowly in 2013. Balance sheets at HeidelbergCement, Cemex, Italcementi, Vicat and Buzzi Unicem appear to have stalled into something less than the recovery that everybody wants. The picture is more stable in Western Europe but declining revenues have headed east.
The European Commission's Autumn 2013 Economic Forecast has summed it up well, predicting that the European Union's (EU) gross domestic product (GDP) would remain static in 2013. On the strength of the results seen so far that feels about right. The cement industry in Europe hasn't continued to decline but the 'recovery' is slow. Yet a recovery is happening on the strength of these financial results so far. Compared to some of the sales declines seen in 2012 this is good news.
With results from the big European-based cement producers Lafarge and Holcim due later in February 2014, here is a summary of the European situation.
HeidelbergCement's revenue has remained flat in 2013 at Euro13.9bn although its cement, clinker and ground-granulated blast-furnace slag (GGBS) sales volumes have risen by 2.6% to 91.3Mt. Compare this with the 8.7% bounce in revenue from 2011 to 2012. By region, the problem areas have now shifted from losses in Western and Northern Europe to losses in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Market pickup in the UK has driven this turnaround, despite diminished sales volumes in Germany.
Similarly, Cemex's sales have also remained flat at US$15.2bn. Both of its European areas have improved their sales, with sales losses only reported for the Northern Europe region. Again, sales in the UK drove overall business with France starting to improve too.
Italcementi had it tougher in 2013 with its sixth consecutive drop in revenue since 2008. Just like HeidelbergCement, the problem regions for Italcementi have shifted east in 2013 from Western Europe to the group's Emerging Europe, North Africa and Middle East area. However Italcementi is losing revenue in Western Europe faster than HeidelbergCement, mainly due to the poor Italian market.
Elsewhere, Vicat reported that its consolidated cement sales fell by 4% to Euro1.11bn. Sales decline lessened in France and the rest of Europe even saw sales rise by 4% to Euro427m. Buzzi Unicem saw its cement sales volumes remain static in 2013 at 27.4Mt.
Overall it may not feel great but it's better than the cement industry news for Europe we've been used to in recent years. With the European Commission Economic Forecast suggesting a 1.4% rise in GDP in 2014, the next 12 months look more promising.
Unfair competition in Canada
Written by Global Cement staff
05 February 2014
On 31 January 2014, the Québec government announced that it would invest US$350m in a new US$1bn, 2.2Mt/yr cement plant and port facility, to be operated by McInnis Cement at Port-Daniel. To say that this has prompted outrage in the industry is an understatement. Rival cement producers, including Lafarge and Ciments Québec have been unanimous in condemning the funding, which they see as an unjustified affront to fair competition in the province's cement industry. There was an angry response on the Global Cement LinkedIn Group, with dissatisfaction on a number of levels.
Firstly, established manufacturers highlight that the Québec cement market is in a slump, with 100-150 members of Métallos, the United Steelworkers union, currently on rolling temporary furloughs at any one time. There is over-capacity as it is. How will another cement plant help this situation? One contributor to the Global Cement LinkedIn Group said that the funding was like, "Taking the money I pay as taxes to break my legs." Another said, "Imagine our tax dollars heavily subsidising our direct competitor - totally unacceptable!"
Secondly, the government will have a direct interest in the cement industry, diverting public funds to a sector that (in the West) is traditionally left to its own devices. What does the government have to gain from this move? Well, there are suggestions that the awarding of future government cement and concrete contracts can no longer be fair due to the rather obvious conflict of interest. Could the government effectively award contracts to itself? Arguments from the government and McInnis that its distribution will be outside the areas served by the other plants don't seem to wash with the established producers.
Thirdly, there are fingers pointed at the Gaspasia paper mill project, a failed government-funded installation that was not established in the 1990s at a cost to the taxpayer of US$300m. It is unlikely that any of the parties involved would like to see a repeat at Port-Daniel.
Finally, the Canadian government appears to have turned its back on its own 'Wood First' policy, signed in April 2013, which stated that wood should be preferred in construction over cement and steel due to environmental concerns over embodied CO2. At the time Canadian cement manufacturers were at pains to point out that cement and concrete constructions were actually sustainable in comparison to many other building materials, especially with repect to long-term use and minimisation of energy consumed during a building's lifespan. At worst this seems to be a government U-turn but it could yet get more ugly. Now, with funding for new cement capacity, Québec appears to have 'listened' to the cement producers. How long before some cynics point to this change as evidence that the government wanted McInnis Cement to happen all along?
Whether a gross miscalculation or a deliberate ploy by the government, the McInnis Cement saga will not be going away. Ciments Québec and Lafarge will line up to fight the decision and, in litigation-heavy North America, this story could run and run.
Moving and shaking in the USA
Written by Global Cement staff
29 January 2014
Two stories from the US have drawn our attention this week, even with a US$1.3bn cartel fine in Brazil, more new business in Africa, the possible closure of CBR's white cement plant in Belgium and strange metrological goings-on in India also in the headlines.
Firstly, it was announced that Colombia's major cement producer Cementos Argos has agreed to acquire Vulcan Materials' building material assets in Florida. Argos, active in the US since June 2011 when it acquired its Harleyville and Roberta plants from Lafarge, will more than double its capacity in the country from 2.7Mt/yr to 6.2Mt/yr and go from a small player to a significant force in the western US.
Argos may have moved at just the right time. Despite suffering disproportionately in what is often termed the 'Great Recession' in the US, Florida's cement market is fundamentally solid, with significant residential construction and a good commercial construction baseline. If the PCA's expectations that the US will consume 80Mt/yr of cement in 2014 and a release of that much talked-about 'pent-up demand' are realised, Argos could be in a position to make good sales.
Indeed, Argos' move takes on even more significance in the light of the second US story from this week, which sees Texas Industries (TXI) taken over by Martin Marietta. The acquisition, which comes on the back of a failed bid by Martin Marietta for Vulcan Materials in 2012, also makes perfect sense for the company. Indeed, Martin Marietta's chief executive, C Howard Nye, said, "We like the Texas market a lot."
And well they should. Developments around the Eagle Ford shale gas reserves in the centre of Texas have led to a building boom in terms of both new constructions and oil well cement. Despite this, TXI announced a loss of US$17.6m in the quarter to 30 September 2013, although it saw higher sales. It blamed interest repayments. There are obviously clear gains for Martin Marietta in buying TXI, but it had better have a plan to sort out TXI's finances.
For all the talk of major restructuring in China , and mergers and acquisitions in India, it is the US cement industry that is showing the most movement so far in 2014. Could this be the year when things finally look up?