Displaying items by tag: All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association

As ever, there have been plenty of news stories from Pakistan recently covering the on-going fallout of the water shortage at the Katas Raj Temples in Chakwal, Punjab and an update on new production line at Maple Leaf Cement’s Iskanderabad plant. The two stories present two sides to the furious pace of the local industry and the potential price this growth might entail.

Graph 1: Cement despatches in Pakistan, 2012 - 2017. Source: All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association.

Graph 1 above sets the scene with an industry that has seen total despatches grow by nearly 30% to 42.8Mt in 2017 from 33.1Mt in 2012. About four-fifths of this is based in the north of the county. The big sub-story alongside this is that exports have fallen by half to 4.2Mt in 2017 from a high of 8.3Mt in 2013. The cause of this appears to be a decline in the Afghan market and a similar drop in waterborne clinker exports. Given the higher proportion of exports to the southern market this change has likely hit the industry in south harder despite overall depatches there rising. So far in 2018 similar trends are holding, except for exports, where the clinker export market has rallied significantly in the south.

The background to all this growth domestically is Chinese investment in the form of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). CPEC-related project include integrated road infrastructure, the modernisation of railways and the development of the city of Gwadar and its related infrastructure. In addition the local Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) is also having an effect and demographic pressures, such as a housing shortage, are also expected to support the construction market.

Data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) placed cement production capacity at 54Mt/yr in September 2018 compared to 66Mt/yr in the Global Cement Directory 2018, which includes new capacity being built. This compares to around 10Mt/yr in the 1995 local financial year to an estimated 73Mt/yr by the State Bank of Pakistan in its third quarter report for 2017 - 2018. This rapid growth can be seen in recent stories such as the Iskanderabad plant expansion, Flying Cement’s mill order from Loesche, Kohat Cement’s mill order also from Loesche, a new solar plant at Fauji Cement at its Attock plant and the commissioning of DG Khan’s new plant at Hub. These stories are all from the last three months! The State Bank of Pakistan estimated that 11 producers hare now investing US$2.12bn on capacity expansions to add over 23Mt/yr by the end of the 2021 financial year.

One potential price for all of this growth is currently being illustrated in the ongoing legal wrangles about the use of water by cement plants near the Katas Raj Temples. What started as an investigation into why water levels were dropping at a pond at a Hindu heritage site seems to have transformed into a full scale inquiry into alleged corruption by local government around the setting up of cement plants. A report by the Punjab Anti-Corruption Establishment Lahore to the Supreme Court has found irregularities committed by government departments in connection to the setting up of cement plants by DG Khan and Bestway Cement in Chakwal. It seems unlikely at this stage that this inquiry will cause too much trouble for the local cement industry but it will certainly make it more complicated and potentially more expensive to st up new plants in the future.

Read Global Cement’s plant report from the DG Khan’s Khairpur cement plant in Chakwal

Pakistan: Overall cement sales in Pakistan fell by 2% year-on-year to 7Mt in the first two months of the current fiscal year, which began on 1 July 2018. Domestic sales dropped by 5.3% to 5.9Mt, while exports increased by 21.5% to 1.1Mt.

A spokesperson from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) said that the industry had been expecting slower growth at home but had not expected a contraction. He added that in July 2018 overall sales had grown by 5% but they fell by 8% in August 2018.

Pakistan: Cement despatches rose by 15% year-on-year to 23.7Mt in the first half of 2018 from 20.5Mt in the same period in 2017. All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers' Association (APCMA) data showed that despatches in the north of the country rose by 13% to 17.5Mt and in the south they grew by 7% to 3.8Mt. However, despatches in the south fell by 13% year-on-year to 4.2Mt in June 2018.

Pakistan: The All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) says that the capacity utilisation of the local cement industry reached 94% in the nine months of the local financial year to March 2018. Demand for cement has been bolstered by local demand and growing exports so far in 2018, according to the Business Recorder newspaper. Cement despatches grew by 14.7% year-on-year to 34.8Mt in the first nine months of the 2017 – 2018 year from 30.3Mt in the same period in the previous period. Despatches grew faster in the north of the country than the south.

Pakistan: The All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) has expressed its concern over a ‘sharp’ rise in coal and fuel prices have increased the production cost of cement. Sources quoted by the association have blamed the implementation of supply side measures in China to limit its coal mining capacity, according to the Nation newspaper. A recent surge in coal prices has also followed stricter local rules on coal transportation. The association has called on the government to avoid ‘disruptive policies’ that impact construction growth.

Pakistan: Cement sales rose by 12% year-on-year to 22.2Mt in the last six months of 2017 from 19.8Mt in the same period in 2016. Data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers' Association (APCMA) shows that domestic consumption rose by 17.4 % to 19.8Mt from 16.9Mt, according to the Express Tribune newspaper. However, exports continued to decline in the period by 17.3% to 2.9Mt from 2.4Mt. Exports fell in most parts of the country, particularly in the south, despite increases from plants in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. The APCMA has blamed this on high industry costs, foreign imports and local legislation.

The All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) struck a triumphant note this week as it announced that its industry has over 26Mt/yr of capacity upgrades in the pipeline. Its chairman Sayeed Saigol concluded in a press release that the country’s growth trend required ‘massive’ investment and that its producers were working on it.

Graph 1 – Local and export cement despatches in Pakistan, 2008 – 2016. Data source: APCMA.

Graph 1 shows how the local industry has changed since 2009. At this time exports hit a high of over 11Mt, constituting 34% of all cement despatches at the time. Since then though exports have fallen to below 6Mt or 14% of despatches, as local despatches have started to increase. Although local despatches have risen each year, the growth rate was below 1% in 2011. In 2016 it was over 14%.

Much has changed since 2010. At this time production capacity hit a high of 45Mt/yr in the 2009 – 2010 Pakistan financial year, according to APCMA data, but then utilisation sunk to below 73%, its lowest rate in over a decade. Pakistan’s cement producers sought a way out by exporting their cement. Export volumes subsequently exploded to a high of nearly 11Mt in 2008 – 2009 from next to nothing at the turn of the millennium.

The effects of this had particular repercussions in eastern and southern Africa as local producers suffered against seaborne imports. In 2012 the outgoing chief of South Africa’s PPC summarised the problem by saying that imports were not a threat to African expansion, provided that a cement plant was not built within 200km of a port. Rightly or wrongly cement from Pakistan was vilified by the African press and then legislated against. South Africa even implementing anti-dumping duties to howls of derision from Pakistan.

Funnily enough though the APCMA has recommended that Pakistan’s government do exactly the same thing against imports of cement from Iran. Industry scare stories about Iranian cement being sold illegally in Pakistan have circulated since at least 2012. Iran’s nuclear deal in 2015 must have worried the local industry, as the prize for Iran was the lifting of international sanctions making it easier for one of the world’s largest cement producers to start exporting its product. However, president-elect Trump’s disdain for the Iran deal may put those worries to rest if the deal is ‘cancelled’.

Back to the present, the Pakistan cement industry appears to be booming. One motor is the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, a collection of infrastructure projects worth US$54bn. There is some disagreement at this point about how the usage levels of cement breakdown, with the chief executive of Thatta Cement placing it at 60% for infrastructure and 40% for housing but with other commentators placing it at 70% for housing and 30% for infrastructure. If the latter is true then Pakistan’s cement producers may receive an even bigger payday. The emphasis on housing shouldn’t be underestimated though as the country’s production capacity per capita, below 200kg/capita, is low by international standards. Either way, things are looking good for the local producers.

At the beginning of September 2013 Lucky Cement reportedly resigned from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association. The implications of this departure raise interesting implications for Pakistan's cement industry and its export markets.

Lucky Cement reacted to a growing row over energy prices for cement producers in Pakistan. The government increased electricity taxes for industrial consumers by 55% but only increased gas prices by 17.5%. This has created an uneven rise in the cost of production between those smaller cement producers powered off the national electricity grid and those larger cement producers using captive power plants. Suddenly smaller cement producers have found it much more expensive to make cement than their larger competitors.

Although Pakistan's cement industry contains over 20 producers, it is dominated by four major players - Lucky Cement, Bestway Cement, DG Khan and Maple Leaf – who hold nearly half of the country's cement production capacity of around 45Mt/yr. According to local media covering the spat, Lucky Cement uses 100% captive power generation, DG Khan Cement uses 40% and Maple Leaf Cement uses 45%.

In 2009 the Competition Commission of Pakistan issued fines to 20 cement producers found guilty of acting as a cartel and co-ordinating rises in cement prices. Following the action cement prices fell by 30%. Since then prices have steadily risen again with the industry publicly denying the existence of a cartel as recently as April 2013.

Regardless of whether any collusion exists today, with new cement production capacity announced this week by DG Khan, the incentives for Pakistan's larger cement producers are growing to keep their prices low with the benefit of seizing greater market share. Meanwhile the smaller cement producers could be squeezed on both energy input costs and price.

In Pakistan, if the larger cement producers act on the new market opportunities, industry consolidation seems possible. Internationally, if the big cement producers in Pakistan concentrate more on the domestic market then this presents opportunities elsewhere. For example, markets in East and South Africa receive significant cement imports from Pakistan. If the volumes of these imports decrease then local African producers and rival exporters will benefit.

Changes in Pakistan's cement industry carry implications both at home and abroad in its export markets. Who exactly these changes will be 'lucky' for remains to be seen.