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The close of the first half of 2023 brought the latest crop of seasonal cement data from the Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA). Vietnam sold 61.4Mt of cement and clinker during the first half of 2023, up by 2.7% year-on-year.1 Graph 1 (below) tracks the progress of full-year Vietnamese cement and clinker sales over the six years up to 2022, as well as the most recent half-year.
Graph 1 - Vietnamese annual cement production, January 2017 – June 2023
The first half of 2023 marks the first half-year in which lockdown restrictions have been absent in both Vietnam and its main export market, China, since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak.2 Vietnam was especially hard-hit: it implemented the first lockdown outside of China in March 2020, and has recorded the 13th most Covid-19 cases of any country up to July 2023. Then, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused uncertainties for cement producers and importers all around the world. Yet the price of imported coal across Southeast Asia had returned to pre-war levels by the end of June 2023.3 This indicates that the first half of 2023 may represent a ‘typical’ first half for the Vietnamese cement industry, for the first time this decade. During the 2010s, this meant growth margins of over 10% year-on-year.
During the first half of 2023, Vietnam’s sales volumes grew by 30% from pre-Covid-19 levels of 47.1Mt in the first half of 2019, confirming the industry trend of rapid capacity expansion. Just in the course of the half year, Vietnam’s integrated cement capacity rose by 7.9% to 123Mt/yr.4 It previously rose by 6.9% year-on-year to 114Mt/yr in 2022. That year, first-half cement sales also grew by 6.9% year-on-year, to 59.8Mt from 55.9Mt. In the first half of 2023, capacity growth has outstripped the country’s sales growth, of 2.7% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, Vietnam exported 15.7Mt of cement and clinker in the first half of 2023, 26% of its total despatches.5 This corresponds to a decline of 31% year-on-year from 22.7Mt (38% of despatches) in the first half of 2022 and a rise of 0.5% from pre-Covid-19 levels of 15.6Mt (33%) in the first half of 2019.
Chinese construction is the lynchpin in the Vietnamese cement industry’s current growth model. Over successive Five-Year Plans, it has consumed increasing volumes of clinker from Vietnam, as well as cement, at diminishing prices. This strategy overreached itself in the first quarter of 2023, more than a year into an on-going Chinese property market slump, when the value of Vietnam’s cement and clinker exports to the country fell by 95% year-on-year, to US$11.4m.6
By lowering prices, Vietnam’s cement sector charts a careful course within the contested waters of global trade rules, but it has run aground before. Most recently, from the start of 2023, the Philippines attached tariffs of up to 28% (and up to 55% for blended cement) to Vietnamese cement from 11 different producers.7 The Philippines Tariff Commission had found that ‘dumped’ cement from Vietnam – constituting over 50% of cement imports over the 18 months up to the end of 2020 – threatened the domestic industry. The failure to diversify its markets is a further sign that Vietnam’s current positioning in the cement and clinker trade is, at best, medium-term.
From October 2023, cement entering the European Union (EU) will become subject to extra taxes under the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM).8 The EU is a relatively small trade partner for Vietnam, but the longer-term effect of this policy will be to replicate itself in the statute books of other nations and trade blocs, beginning in the Global North. With forecast lignite imports of 70 – 75Mt to Vietnam in 2023 – 2026, opportunities for cement exports from Vietnam, and countries like it, are diminishing.
The best situation for Vietnam would be accelerated growth in its domestic consumption base. The government is attempting to trigger a construction boom with its 2023 budget, which includes US$5bn in residential construction funding. Meanwhile, full-year infrastructure spending will rise by 25% year-on-year.9 To this end, it also needs to keep the cement price low. From 1 January 2023, Vietnamese exporters paid a tax of 10% of value on shipments of cement and clinker, instead of the previous 5% rate. If successful, this will nourish booming consumption with booming, and cheap, supply. Vietnam is grafting its Chinese model back onto the domestic market.
Producers will keep exporting. In May 2023, Nghi Son Cement Corporation despatched a first shipment of 31,500t of cement to the US. Nghi Son Cement Corporation’s cement, produced with fly ash, is clearly considered by the company and its owners to have some long-term marketability in the US. Said owners include Japan-based Taiheiyo Cement, which produces cement in the US via its CalPortland subsidiary.
In Vietnam, the cement industry has undergone a period of unparalleled growth, fuelled by exports. It can now reinvest the proceeds in establishing a self-sufficient construction sector around an ever more sustainable cement industry, ready to become the first choice across new markets as they arise in Southeast Asia and beyond.
1. Global Cement, 'Vietnam's first-half cement production declines in 2023,' 29 June 2023, https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/15941-vietnam-s-first-half-cement-production-declines-in-2023
2. The Observer, ‘‘It was all for nothing’: Chinese count cost of Xi’s snap decision to let Covid rip,’ 29 January 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/29/chinese-cost-covid-xi-lockdowns-china
3. Reuters, ‘Column: Asia thermal coal prices get the blues from Europe and LNG,’ 20 June 2023, https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/asia-thermal-coal-prices-get-blues-europe-lng-russell-2023-06-20/
4. Việt Nam News, ‘Record input costs thwart cement groups,’ 12 July 2023, https://global.factiva.com/ha/default.aspx?mod=SavedSearch_SelectSearch&page_driver=SavedSearch_SelectSearch#./!?&_suid=168119771197707004455190223307
5. Việt Nam News, ‘Industry: Vietnam’s Cement, Clinker Exports +82.2% y/y to $116M in Jun: GSO,’ 4 July 2023, https://global.factiva.com/ha/default.aspx?page_driver=searchBuilder_Search#./!?&_suid=168908188871006418595282713178
6. Vietnam Investment Review, ‘A strenuous year ahead in cement,’ 9 May 2023, https://vir.com.vn/a-strenuous-year-ahead-in-cement-101707.html
7. Global Cement, 'Philippines Department of Trade and Industry to impose anti-dumping duties on cement from Vietnam,' 22 December 2022, https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/15084-philippines-department-of-trade-and-industry-to-impose-anti-dumping-duties-on-cement-from-vietnam
8. Global Cement, 'Too taxing? How the CBAM affects cement exporters to the EU,’ 29 June 2022, https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/14316-too-taxing-how-the-cbam-affects-cement-exporters-to-the-eu
9. Customs News, ‘Cement enterprises expect a "brighter" second half of 2023
https://english.haiquanonline.com.vn/cement-enterprises-expect-a-brighter-second-half-of-2023-25368.html
Asia Cement presents 2050 net zero strategy
06 July 2023China: Asia Cement has launched its 2050 decarbonisation strategy, entitled 'Net-Zero Carbon Emissions By 2050 - Asia Cement Advanced Deployment.' The strategy consists of multiple pillars, namely 'alternative fuels,' 'reducing cement's clinker factor,' 'increasing renewable energy reliance' and 'carbon capture.'
During 2022, Asia Cement reduced its limestone, clay, iron and sand consumption by 266,000t, its coal consumption by 17,000t and its gypsum consumption by 56,000t year-on-year. This eliminated 95,100t of CO2 emissions throughout the year, according to the producer.
Malayan Cement forecasts level sales volumes year-on-year throughout 2023 and 2024 financial years
06 July 2023Malaysia: Malayan Cement expects its sales of cement to remain level at 8Mt/yr throughout the 2023 and 2024 financial years. The New Straits Times newspaper has reported that the producer forecast consistent declines in its cement prices over the period. Meanwhile, it expects the price of Indonesian coal, which it imports for use as fuel, to drop to US$285/t in the 2023 financial year, then by 42% to US$165/t in the 2024 financial year and by 12% to US$145/t in the 2025 financial year.
India: Ambuja Cements and its subsidiary ACC have transitioned to reporting their results in line with the (April - March) Indian financial year. As such, they have published 15-month results for 2022 and the first quarter of 2023. During the period, Ambuja Cements reported sales of US$4.75bn, up by 34% year-on-year from US$3.53bn. Its cement volumes rose by 28% to 68Mt, while its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell by 11% to US$714m. Meanwhile, ACC recorded sales of US$2.71bn, up by 38% from US$1.97bn in 2021. Its cement volumes rose by 31% to 37.9Mt, while its EBITDA fell by 30% to US$275m.
ACC announced its goal to become India's 'most profitable cement company.' To realise this, the company will implement a three-pronged strategy of capacity expansion, efficiency improvements and development of its distributor and dealer network. Under the capacity expansion heading, the producer will double its production capacity through the construction of new cement plants and the expansion of existing ones. In this, it will lay special emphasis on securing supplies of renewable energy and supplementary cementitious materials, including fly ash from its own power plant segment. The company noted that it recently secured access to 1Bnt-worth of new limestone reserves in Maharashtra, Odisha, Karnataka and Rajasthan. It will also seek to increase its coal production to avoid the rising cost of imports.
In the 2024 financial year, the government of India plans to invest US$11.4bn in the construction of new housing, roads and sanitation infrastructure nationally. Ambuja Cements has forecast an increase in domestic cement consumption of 6 - 8% to over 390Mt/yr. It expects Indian cement production to rise by 8 - 10% year-on-year to 390Mt in the 2024 financial year.
Cemros’ Serebryansky cement plant switches to gas
28 June 2023Russia: Cemros’ integrated Serebryansky cement plant in Ryzan region has switched to using gas as a fuel. The project was conducted with Gazprom and the regional government, including linking the site up to the gas network with a 14km pipeline. CO2 emissions at the plant are expected to decrease by up to 17% and electricity consumption by 4%. The 1.8Mt/yr plant used around 200,000t/yr of coal before starting the switch to gas from March 2023.
Canada: The Cement Association of Canada (CAC), with its members and partners in the concrete sector, has released Concrete Zero, an action plan to help the local cement and concrete sector reach net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. The five priority areas it is focusing on include: eliminating the use of coal and petroleum coke as fuel sources for clinker production; reducing the volume of clinker used to produce cement; increasing the use of supplementary cementitious materials; working towards building carbon capture, utilisation and storage capacity; and advocating for performance-based codes, standards and specifications, procurement policies and increased material efficiency in construction. Targets include reaching a 100% fuel mix from non-fossil-based sources by 2050. The latest plant follows the goal of achieving a 40% emissions reduction by 2030 as part of its Roadmap to Net-Zero Carbon Concrete by 2050.
Adam Auer, the president and chief executive officer of CAC, said “Our net-zero action plan is ambitious and cannot be achieved by industry action alone. Working with government, industry, and partners in the design, architecture, and construction industry will be essential for success. Canada’s cement and concrete industry are committed to doing our part to help Canada build a better, cleaner future. Working together, we can deliver Concrete Zero.”
Lithuania: Arturas Zaremba, the head of Akmenes Cementas, has warned that government proposals to increase the import tax on coal in 2024 and the abolition of subsidies for the fuel will affect the company. The country’s parliament is also proposing scaling the import tax based on a CO2 scale, according to the Baltic Business Daily newspaper. Zaremba said that the cement producer uses 130,000t/yr of coal. However, it is currently investing Euro22m on an upgrade to its Akmenes integrated plant to allow it to switch to using a higher proportion of solid-recovered fuel. It currently has a 10% alternative fuels substitution rate using dried sewage sludge and tyres.
Zaremba said "There will be some impact because we will still have some of that coal left, but not as much as we would have had without the investment. I have not followed how much they plan to increase the excise duty, but we need to look into how much that would be in the financial terms. Any increase has an impact."
Chayton Capital and Montenegro government to assess feasibility of Pljevlja building materials complex
12 April 2023Montenegro: UK-based private equity firm Chayton Capital has agreed to fund the feasibility study for the establishment of a joint public/private building materials production complex at the site of the Plejevlja energy hub. The complex will include a cement plant and cement bonded particle boards plant. Emerging Market Watch News has reported that the firm will also be involved in the modernisation of a coal-fired power plant at the site. The total budget for the project is Euro700m.
India: The government has published plans for a new broad-gauge double railway line in Rajasthan. The planned line will connect Jaipur and Sawai Madhopur, and will facilitate the transport of coal to businesses including cement plants. Maritime Gateway News has reported that the new line will increase carrying capacity in the local railway maintenance block by 80%. It is scheduled for commissioning in the 2027 financial year.
Update on China, March 2023
29 March 2023The Chinese cement sector had a tough time in 2022. This was confirmed this week as the large domestic cement producers released their financial results. Revenue was down, profits fell and cement sales volumes tumbled. The key causes included the continuation of the country’s zero-coronavirus policy, the declining real estate market and rising input costs for raw materials such as coal. Demand for cement withered and so did the fortunes of the cement companies.
Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2018 to 2022. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that cement output fell by 9.8% year-on-year to 2.13Bnt in 2022 from 2.36Bnt in 2021. The greater decrease was in the first half of the year rather than the second. The China Cement Association (CCA) said that this was nearly the lowest output in the last decade and the largest decline since 1969 ! The National Bureau of Statistics of China also pointed out in a release that, despite investment in fixed assets increasing by around 5% in 2022 and national infrastructure spending growing by 9%, real estate development investment dropped by 10% to US$1.46Tn.
Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.
Graph 3: Sales volumes of cement and clinker from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.
The cement producers warned in their forecasts that the results for 2022 were going to be rough and so it came to pass. China National Building Material (CNBM)’s revenue fell by 16% year-on-year to US$33.4bn in 2022 and Anhui Conch’s sales fell by 21% to US$19.2bn in 2022. Although, Tangshang Jidong Cement and Huaxin Cement reported declines of income or revenue in single digits. Profits halved for all of the companies covered here. Various combinations of the reasons covered above were cited for the situation.
What is more interesting are the responses some of the producers are making and what has gone well. CNBM, for example, is pinning its hopes on better staggered peak production and infrastructure projects. Anhui Conch, meanwhile, appears to have been diversifying its business by increasing both its concrete and solar power production capacity significantly in 2022. It was also announced that it plans to spend US$2.81bn on capital expenditure projects in 2023. China Resources Cement (CRC) said it had optimised its presence in South China through selected acquisition and divestments. Huaxin Cement has continued its focus on overseas markets with its share of operating revenue originating from outside China rising to 13% of the group’s total in 2022 compared to 8% in 2021. It also mentioned a number of unnamed projects around the world steadily drawing nearer to action. Sure enough, the group announced earlier in March 2023 that it was buying a majority stake in Oman Cement.
As for 2023, the CCA forecast in January 2023 that cement demand would be flat or slightly down. However, at the same time, provincial changes to the real estate market are expected to improve market conditions and infrastructure development will further drive demand for cement. The CCA identified that the cement sector’s production overcapacity could become an issue with lower demand. In 2022 the national clinker production utilisation rate was 65%, a fall of 10% from that in 2021. It also pointed out that peak-staggered production had actually helped cement producers generally to cope with smaller declines in profits compared to less well regulated industries.
Problems such as the zero-coronavirus policy, the real estate market and rising raw material costs have made the country’s production overcapacity issue worse. Changes are being made such as the national abandonment of the coronavirus lockdowns in late 2022, and, as mentioned above, the real estate market is being modified. In addition to this, various environmental changes are on the way, as the government works towards its sustainability goals. The country remains the largest cement producer in the world. Yet the message here is that we should expect more of the same for the cement sector in China in 2023.