Displaying items by tag: Coal

India: UltraTech Cement has imported a 157,000t shipment of coal from Russia for US$25.8m, which it paid in Chinese Yuan. ET NOW News has reported that this is the first instance of an Indian entity using the currency in international trade. The deal has a value of US$164/t, 50% below average South African coal prices and 20% below average Australian cement prices in India. The deal reportedly signals the possible end of Indian coal prince inflation in the medium – long term.

Boral admitted this week that high energy costs in Australia had forced it to reduce production levels. Chief executive officer Zlatko Todorcevski revealed to Reuters that the company was temporarily cutting back some unspecified areas of its operations. He also said that it was going to have to pass on growing energy prices directly on its customers.

This has followed mounting alarm at fuel prices in successive financial reports by the building materials company leading to revised earnings guidance being issued in May 2022. Bad weather was responsible for the larger share of the expected additional adverse impact to underlying earnings in its 2022 financial year but around US$10m was anticipated from rising fuel prices. Growing coal and electricity prices were said to be impacting its production and logistics costs, with price rises in January and February 2022 having proved insufficient to keep up with inflation. In a trading update in March 2022 the company said that its exposure to coal prices was unhedged for the second half of its 2022 financial year, to June 2022.

An energy crisis in Australia may seem hard to understand given that the country is one of the world’s biggest exporters of coal and gas. Yet, the country has faced a number of problems with its electricity generation sector in 2022 with disruptions to coal supplies to power stations, outages, ongoing maintenance and a cold winter that adversely affected the market. This led the Australian Energy Market Operator to suspend the country’s main wholesale market on 15 June 2022 in an attempt to stabilise the supply of electricity. New South Wales has also reportedly forced coal mines to prioritise the local market over exports. Energy minister Chris Bowen even asked the residents of New South Wales to try and reduce electricity use in the evenings in an attempt to prevent blackouts. However, with the consumer electricity market now looking more stable, attention has turned to industrial users such as Boral.

Global Cement Weekly has covered energy costs for cement producers a couple of times in the last year. There has been plenty of angst about growing energy costs on cement company balance sheets since mid-2021 as the logistics problems following the lifting of the coronavirus-lockdowns became clear. The biggest story at this time was an energy crisis in China that caused supplies to be rationed to industrial users. This then intensified with the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022 and energy prices went up everywhere as economic sanctions were imposed upon Russia. One standout was Turkey where cement producers publicly raised the alarm about jumps in coal prices.

Recently, some North American lime producers such as Lhoist North America and the Mississippi Lime Company have been notably bold in announcing price rises due to energy costs and other factors. This week, for example, Lhoist North America said it had raised the price of its lime products by up to 45%. It cited the ‘challenging circumstance’ for all parties at an ‘unprecedented’ time. One alternative to the direct approach of simply putting up prices has been the use of energy surcharges. Japan-based Taiheiyo Cement announced earlier in June 2022 that it was going to introduce a coal surcharge for its cementitious products in September 2022 due to rising energy prices. Its system is based on the coal price with revisions planned every two months. The scheme will run for one year in the first instance. How customers will react to this remains to be seen.

We have looked above at a few disparate examples of the problems that energy costs have been causing cement and lime producers over the last month. These issues look set to continue in an acute phase while the war in Ukraine rages on, but the longer term trends from the economic recovery from coronavirus will undoubtedly last for longer. As examples in Australia and China have shown, local energy crises can easily spill over into the industrial sector as domestic users are prioritised. So, even if cement companies source their supplies carefully, they may face issues if the wider market struggles. Meanwhile, cement producers face the dilemma of justifying price rises to customers adapting to mounting inflation. Taiheiyo Cement has shown one way of doing this. The problems caused by surging energy prices to other cement companies look set to become more apparent in the next few months as reporting of the first half of the year emerges.

Japan: Taiheiyo Cement plans to introduce a coal surcharge for its cementitious products in September 2022 due to rising energy prices. It will use a surcharge system linked to the price of coal for one year until the end of August 2023. The first surcharge will be determined based on the price of coal in June 2022 and then disclosed in mid-August 2022. It will be revised every two months. The surcharge will be charged separately from the product price.

The cement company said that, “Although we are trying to further reduce costs, it is not possible to absorb the unprecedented rise in costs only by corporate efforts.”

India: State-owned coal supplier Coal India has recorded a 17% year-on-year decline in deliveries of coal to cement plants in May 2022. Its coal supply to captive power plants also dropped in the month, by 40% year-on-year.

Coal India is the leading coal mining company globally. Its main customers are energy, cement and steel companies.

One big story in India in recent weeks has been the start of action by the central government to tackle rising cement prices. First it reduced tax duties on petrol and diesel in late May 2022. Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman also said that they were looking at ways of improving the availability of cement in the country, including better logistics, to help lower its cost. A delay to a change in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate structure is also being considered to slow inflation generally. Local press then reported a few days later that the government had set up a panel to explore ways of reducing the price of cement by distributing supplies better around the country. Specifically, it was talking to the South India Cement Manufacturers’ Association to work out ways for their members to meet the rising demand in other parts of the country. Reported options included looking at better use of rail and sea connections.

Chart 1: Map of Indian regions showing integrated/clinker production capacity per capita. Note: the chart does not include standalone grinding plant capacity. Source: Global Cement Directory, Indian census data. Map image adapted from Filpro CC BY-SA 4.0.

The map above (Chart 1) summarises the general problem the country faces from a clinker production point of view. More clinker can be produced in the south of the country than elsewhere. This map is partly a reflection where the limestone reserves are. However, it does not show that the East region of India has a higher concentration of cement grinding plants than elsewhere. Additionally, a number of new integrated/clinker plants have been built in the East and more have been proposed. The data in Chart 1 suggests that India has an integrated production capacity of 312kg/capita nationally. This compares to a cement consumption of 200 – 250kg/capita as reported by the ratings agency Crisil.

Data from Crisil indicates that cement prices grew by 9% from the start of 2021 to March 2022. A similar rise of 8.1% month-on-month was reported in April 2022. It is not a direct comparison but retail inflation in India was reported as being 7.8% in April 2022. The cause of this has been blamed on a general tightening in energy supplies in the autumn of 2021 followed by the effects of the war in Ukraine that started in early 2022. Rising international coal and petcoke prices have made manufacturing cement more expensive. Growing petrol and diesel prices have made moving it around costlier still. Looking at the cement market generally, Crisil noted that demand for cement grew sharply in the first half of the 2022 financial year but then slowed in the second half due to poor weather, issues with sand supply and a labour shortage. The ratings agency has forecast stable growth in the 2023 financial year but with the caveat that the mounting costs of construction, including building materials, could dent this.

The fundamentals for the world’s second largest cement market look good as Adani Group’s recent deal to buy Holcim’s Indian assets for US$6.34bn attests. This won’t be much comfort for end-users though who are watching the price of cement rocket upwards. Yet how far the central government will be able to help the southern cement producers move their wares around more easily remain to be seen. If it succeeds, it may slow the rise in prices but it seems unlikely to halt it. The reaction of the more northerly producers is also key, since one option they have is to slacken their own price increases by just enough to fight off the new competition. Already they are facing the dilemma of raising their prices to cover input costs versus the effect this may have on overall demand. All of this looks set to put pressure on the producers’ margins. Indian cement prices look set to go up whatever happens next, making everyone unhappy. Some may be more unhappy than others.

India: India Cements’ fourth-quarter sales were US$183m in its 2022 financial year, which ended on 31 March 2022, down by 4% year-on-year from US$190m in the corresponding quarter of the 2021 Indian financial year. The producer’s net loss was US$1.37m, as against a first-quarter 2021 financial year net profit of US$6.47m. During the quarter, the company’s cement sales volumes fell by 1.4% to 2.63Mt from 2.67Mt, while its clinker sales volumes fell by 88% to 38,000t from 324,000t. For the full 2022 financial year, India Cements’ sales of cement rose by 2% to 9.07Mt from 8.9Mt. Coal costs ended the financial year at US$300/t, five times the 31 March 2021 price of US$60/t.

India Cements said “The spiralling prices of fuel, along with the shortage in availability of the same, affected the margins of the industry. The woes of the industry worsened further with the outbreak of Russia's war with Ukraine resulting in sanctions being imposed on Russia and its exports, fuelling further shortage of coal and oil in the market.”

Russia: SibCem’s first vice president Gennady Rasskazov says that the local production cost of cement is expected to rise by 30% year-on-year in 2022 due to the new ‘economic circumstances’ the country faces. He added that, due to economic sanctions, the price of coal rose by 76 - 86%, goods and materials by 55%, diesel by 30%, oils and lubricants by 83% and transport and logistics costs by 14 - 24% in the first quarter of 2022. The average growth in worker pay at SibCem will rise by 30% in 2022 as the company has implemented indexed salaries. Rasskazov made the comments at a meeting with cement producers, consumers and local officials at the Novosibirsk State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering.

Japan: Sumitomo Osaka Cement’s sales fell by 23% year-on-year to US$1.43bn in the financial year to the end of March 2022 from, US$1.85bn in same period in 2021. Its domestic sales volumes of cement grew slightly to 8.34Mt but exports sales volumes rose by 8.4% to 1.54Mt. Its operating income dropped by 59% to US$53.3m from US$129m. The company blamed its falling profits on rising input costs including energy prices such as a coal and oil.

Vietnam: ThyssenKrupp Industrial Solutions Vietnam (TISV) and the Vietnam Institute of Building Materials (VIBM) have signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation between both parties on the research and application of new technologies towards reducing the CO₂ emissions of cement production. At the signing ceremony, Lukas Schoeneck, the chief executive officer of TISV confirmed his commitment to collaborate with VIBM, under the guidance of the Deputy Minister of Construction Nguyen Van Sinh. The parties now plan to identify a lighthouse project that will use alternative fuels in response to an increase in the global price of coal.

Pham Van Bac, Head of the Building Material Division at the Ministry of Construction, said that Vietnam is implementing the a strategy for the development of building materials for the period 2021 - 2030, with a vision to 2050. The plan for the cement industry is to limit the use of natural resources, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and save energy while promoting the maximum use of waste streams from industries and domestic sources as raw materials in cement production.

China Daily ran a story this week entitled “Steel and cement don't reflect China's growth story any more.” The piece reassured English-language readers that the country’s economy is moving on and that recent falling production of cement simply reflected the “profound changes China's economic structure is undergoing.” Profound is the right word here given that China is home to the world’s largest cement sector.

Graph 1: Cement output by quarter in China, 2019 - 2022. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that cement output fell by 12% year-on-year to 387Mt in the first quarter of 2022. This compares to 7% and 15% falls in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 respectively. On an annual cumulative rolling basis, output previously hit a low of 2.22Bnt in March 2020 as the initial coronavirus outbreak was brought under control. Output then surged to a high of 2.53Bnt/yr in April 2021 before it started to fall in the autumn of 2021. On a monthly basis, output volumes fell by 5.6% year-on-year to 187Mt in March 2022.

As covered in last week’s column (GCW 555), the financial results from the larger Chinese cement producers have also suffered in the first quarter of 2022. CNBM’s total operating revenue fell by 1% year-on-year to US$7.29bn in the first quarter of 2022. Anhui Conch’s revenue fell by 26% to US$3.85bn and China Resources Cement’s (CRC) turnover fell by 18% to US$889m. Of these three only CRC has released cement sales volumes. Its sales volumes of cement and clinker decreased by 34% and 12% respectively.

In its own analysis, the China Cement Association (CCA) has summarised the current situation as one of rising costs, falling demand and declining benefits. The latest large-scale coronavirus lockdowns and a poor real estate market have hit demand. Rising energy and freight prices have increased the cost of cement. Together, higher costs and falling demand have hit the profits of the cement producers. CNBM’s net profit, for example, fell by 9% to US$420m. Regionally, the CCA observed that the losses of the northern-based producers had increased and that the profits of the southern producers had started to fall sharply also. Another interesting point it made was that the year-on-year decline in March 2022 was slower than compared to the first quarter as a whole and that high levels of inventory may have made March 2022 look worse than it actually was. The association is now pinning its hopes upon demand and prices picking up again later in the second quarter after the current quarantine controls are eased and the government curbs high coal prices.

The CCA’s take doesn’t seem unreasonable, although the first quarter of 2022 was previously deemed to be a continuation of the trouble the Chinese cement sector experienced in the autumn of 2021. Possibly the first quarter has turned out worse than expected but the monthly output in March 2022 has started to look like it might be a tail-off from the worst. The period to watch remains the second quarter of 2022. Looking more widely, energy shocks from the war in Ukraine couldn’t be easily predicted but coal prices were already becoming a concern in the autumn of 2021. China’s renewed zero-Covid policy meanwhile is starting to look unpalatable both economically and socially. Throw in a continued slowdown of the real estate sector and China Daily’s profound pronouncement about the future of cement may prove accurate.