Displaying items by tag: Export

Vicat’s plans to buy another 42% stake in Sinai Cement became public this week. Once completed, the France-based company should own 98% of the Egyptian company, based on previously published ownership figures. The announcement heralds a rapprochement in the relationship between the cement producer and the Egyptian government.

Last year Vicat raised a case against the government with the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) over an argument about how it could invest in Sinai Cement as a foreign company. All seems forgiven and forgotten now with a settlement agreement signed in March 2022 between Rania el Mashat, the Minister of International Cooperation on behalf of the Egyptian government, and Guy Sidos, the chairman and chief executive officer of Vicat Group. Local press reported that the government is trying to attract more direct foreign investment. Sinai Cement reported a loss attributable to its parent company of around US$19.1m in 2021, down from a loss of US$30.3m in 2020. However, its sales rose by 63% year-on-year to US$78m.

Sinai Cement has some specific operating issues related to its geographic position in the Sinai Peninsula and ongoing security concerns. Yet its mixed fortunes also sum up some of the continuing challenges the Egyptian cement industry is facing. After years of overcapacity, the government introduced reduced cement production quotas in July 2021 and this is mostly perceived to have improved prices in the second half of the year. Vicat described the arrangement as having capped the local market at 65% of its production capacity and it said that prices recovered ‘significantly’ as a result in the second half of 2021. Cemex’s regional chief Carlos Gonzalez told local press that the move had given plants “A glimmer of hope for the return of balance to the cement market.” The company has also announced a US$20m local investment backing up this view. Not all the foreign multinational companies entirely agreed, with HeidelbergCement reporting a ‘sharp’ decline in sales volumes although chief executive officer Dominik von Achten did describe the country as ‘coming back’ in an earnings call about his company’s financial results in 2021. Solomon Baumgartner Aviles, the chief executive officer of Lafarge Egypt, was also cooler about the production cap in a press interview in October 2021, describing it as too early to assess how well the cap was working and noting that the gap between supply and demand was still large.

Vicat said in its annual report for 2021 that, “Provided no further adverse geopolitical, health or security developments occur, the current climate is unlikely to jeopardise the prospects of an improvement in the subsidiary’s profitability, which should begin to gradually occur.” The geopolitical bit was timely given that Russia’s war in Ukraine started on 24 February 2022. It also targets the latest problem hitting Egyptian cement producers: energy costs. The head of Arabian Cement told Enterprise Press that initially some producers had opted to temporarily stop production and use stocks instead to attempt to try and wait until the energy price volatility ended. However, it stayed high so the cost of cement has gone up generally. Producers are now trying to switch to using a high ratio of natural gas, such as 10%, but this is dependent on the government letting them.

The Egyptian government, for its part, is facing a decision whether to supply subsidised gas for domestic industry or to export to Europe. The backstory here is that Egyptian cement producers are facing yet another step change in fuel supply. In the mid-2010s lots of plants switched from heavy fuel oil and gas to coal. High international coal prices could be heralding another change.

Alongside this the value of Egypt’s cement exports rose by 151% year-on-year to US$456m in 2021 from US$182m in 2020. The Cement Division of the Federation of Egyptian Industries has attributed this to growth mainly on the African market. This trend continued in January and February 2022 with cement exports up by 141% year-on-year to US$104m from US$43m. The main destinations were Ghana, Cameroon, Ivory Coast and Libya.

HeidelbergCement summed up the current state of the Egyptian cement market in its 2021 annual report as follows “The development of the Egyptian cement market continues to be determined by government intervention.” What happens next is very much in the hands of the state as it decides whether to extend the production cap, which fuels to subsidise, whether to allow exports and where to invest in infrastructure projects. One variation on this theme may be local decarbonisation targets. At the end of March 2022 the Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) launched a series of Net Zero Accelerator initiatives, including one in Egypt. How a country that produces more cement than it needs reduces its CO₂ emissions presents another challenge for manufacturers and the government to grapple with.

Kazakhstan: Steppe Cement recorded rising revenues in the first quarter of 2022 due to stronger cement volumes and higher prices during the period. The manufacturer posted sales revenue of US$14m in the three months to 31 March 2022, up by 29.6% year-on-year from US$10.8m in the first quarter of 2021.

Sales volumes rose by 6% to 281,968t from 266,007t, while average prices for delivered cement also climbed. Exports from Kazakhstan fell by 50% as new factories opened in Uzbekistan. Imports into Kazakhstan, predominantly from Russia, increased from 6.5% to 8% of the market.

Steppe Cement estimates that Kazakhstan's cement market demand will stay at 11 - 12Mt in 2022 but added that there was is a high degree of uncertainty due to the ‘geopolitical situation’ in the region.

Brazil: The Brazilian cement market closed the first quarter of 2022 with a decline in sales year-on-year, according to data from the Brazilian National Cement Industry Association (SNIC). This was in part due to strong rains that affected parts of the country in January and February 2022. In March 2022, however, there was some recovery, with a 0.3% year-on-year increase in sales, to 5.53Mt.

Between January and March 2022, 14.8Mt of cement were shipped within Brazil, compared to 15.2Mt in the same period in 2021, a fall of 2.6%. Total sales, which include exports, totalled 14.91Mt, a 2.2% contraction compared to 15.25Mt in the same quarter of 2021.

SNIC said that the sector’s March 2022 performance had been bolstered by real estate projects, although this was not expected to continue. According to SNIC head Paulo Camillo Penna, self-construction, an important inducer of cement consumption, continues to slow down due to high unemployment

Panama: Cemex exported 3000t of bagged Ordinary Portland Cement to Jamaica from the Bahía Las Minas Grain Terminal in Colón. Data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industries shows that the company started exporting cement in January 2021 and recorded sales of over US$17m in 2021. In the first two months of 2022 Panama exported OPC to countries including Jamaica, the Bahamas, Guyana, Bonaire, Cuba and Curaçao.

Malaysia: Sharuddin Omar Hashim, the managing director of Cement Industries of Malaysia Berhad (CIMA), says that rising input materials, especially coal, are driving up the cost of cement. He blamed the mounting price of coal on Indonesia’s export ban and the war in Ukraine, according to the Malaysian National News Agency. Sharuddin said that coal had previously cost up to US$70/t but it was now US$200/t, with the possibility of reaching US$400/t. Other raw material costs were also reported to have risen sharply due to logistic problems following the Covid-19 pandemic. Sharuddin added that his company is trying to optimise production and reduce production costs through the use of other alternative materials.

Pakistan: Maple Leaf Cement’s first-half standalone sales were US$121m in the 2022 financial year, down by 33% year-on-year from a first-half 2021 financial year figure of US$91.5m. Export sales fell by 46% to US$2.63m, 2.5% of total sales. Its main export markets were Afghanistan, the Seychelles, Oman and Tanzania. The company reported a 70% increase in its consolidated net profit to US$15.2m from US$8.97m in the first half of the 2021 financial year. The producer said that it expects the domestic cement market to remain ‘stagnant’ for numerous reasons, including high inflation, increased interest rates and decelerating implementation of projects under the Public Sector Development Programme.

El Salvador: Cementos Fortaleza is establishing a new 0.3Mt/yr cement plant at Acajutla in Sonsonate Department. The Diario El Mundo newspaper has reported that the subsidiary of Grupo Regalado and Mexico-based Elementia plans to commission the plant in eatly 2023. The company will invest US$40m in its construction. The plant will produce its cement from 20% El Salvadorean-produced raw materials and will primarily serve local consumption, with the possibility of also exporting some cement.

Grupo Regalado representative Marcos Regalado Nottebohm said “It is challenging to invest in a project of such magnitude. This has been a natural step between two large business groups of great renown.”

Tanzania: Dangote Cement has signed an agreement with the Tanzanian Ports Authority whereby it will ship cement from its Mtwara cement plant and raw materials for its Tanzanian operations via the Port of Mtwara. Ecofin Agency News has reported that the company previously used the road network for both materials. This had a negative impact on local roads and prevented it from exporting the Mtwara cement plant’s cement overseas.

Cement producers in the north of Pakistan have started to increase their use of coal from Afghanistan in response to the ongoing volatility in energy markets. Research from a report by Darson Securities found that companies were already using up to 70% Afghan coal in their fuel mix with a further 20% being considered. Most of the northern producers are reported to have secured the cheaper Afghan coal for about two months of inventory, although Maple Leaf Cement was said to have four to five months of inventory. Meanwhile in the south of the country, producers were reported to be facing a tougher situation as Afghan coal costs more for them due to higher logistics charges and export orders were being reduced due to the low cost of clinker internationally. So they are focusing on the domestic market instead.

Graph 1: Cement despatches in Pakistan, 2015 – 2021. Source: All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association.

Data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) shows that cement despatches have been steadily growing since the mid-2010s with a blip in 2020 caused by the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The upward trend has been driven by local sales. Exports have generally grown at the same time, with more variance, but they are yet to regain the high of nearly 11Mt reported in 2009. On a rolling annual basis, local sales have remained steady since mid-2021 but exports have been slowly falling. In April 2021 they were 9.17Mt but by February 2022 they were 7.33Mt. For the February 2022 figures APCMA blamed this on the growing cost of production, rising international freight rates, mounting coal prices and a trade ban with India. On that last point for example, Pakistan-based producers exported 1.21Mt of cement to India in the 2017 – 2018 financial year before exports stopped after February 2019. Despite a brief respite in the spring of 2021 talks are still ongoing to resume trade with India.

On the corporate side the country’s largest cement producer by capacity, Lucky Cement, drew the same conclusion as the APCMA with its half-year results to 31 December 2021. Its local sales volumes were down a little but its exports were down a lot. It noted that the reason its local sales were falling but national industry local sales were up slightly was due to some competitor plants being non-operational in the previous year. However, the company managed to keep sales revenue and earnings increasing year-on-year by successfully combating growing input costs with price rises. Bestway Cement, the country’s other large producer, reported a tougher situation in the second half of 2021, with both local sales and export volumes down. This was attributed to a boom in construction activity in the second half of 2020 as Covid-19 lockdowns were eased. Demand for cement since then was said to be ‘sluggish’ due to inflation and high commodity prices. It also pinned its marked fall in exports on political and economic instability in Afghanistan. However, turnover and operating profit were both up due to higher selling prices.

Elsewhere in the sector news since the start of 2021, Pakistan’s exports to South Africa remained stymied in early 2020 due to a review of ongoing tariffs and the government decision to restrict infrastructure projects to only using locally produced cement. On the sustainability front the APCMA started to set out its decarbonisation strategy in November 2021. It may have a long way to go given that a think tank reported earlier in the year that the cement sector was the largest emitter of coal-related CO₂ emissions in the country, even more than power generation. Alongside this plenty of capacity additions have been announced. Lucky Cement started commercial cement production at its 1.2Mt/yr integrated Samawah cement plant in March 2021. Various new cement plants and upgrades to existing plants have been proposed by Bestway Cement, Cherat Cement, Fauji Cement, Kohat Cement Company, Lucky Cement and Maple Leaf Cement. Finally of note to a sector troubled by energy prices, in September 2021 the Pakistan International Bulk Terminal said it was going to upgrade its coal handling capacity to around 17Mt/yr by 2024.

Last week’s Global Cement Weekly covered Turkey. The contrasts are interesting because both of these countries have high cement exports and have raised energy concerns recently. This leads to the question of whether other cement exporters may be vulnerable to the current situation. Pakistan isn’t the only country where the cement industry is facing the negative effects of growing energy costs. This week in the sector news, Spain-based Tudela Veguín has shut down the kiln at its La Robla plant down for 10 days due to high electricity prices, Thailand-based Siam Cement Group (SCG) announced it was reviewing its investment plans and the UK-based Mineral Products Association lobbied the government on the issue.

The shift to Afghan coal by Pakistan’s cement producers is rational given the current situation. No doubt fuel buyers all over the world are doing similar things. In January 2022 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that Pakistan’s gross domestic product would grow by around 4% for 2021, 2022 and 2023 but current geopolitical events may test these estimates. Over the last year domestic cement demand has remained strong but inflation, growing input costs and the impetus to further rise prices may change this. Meanwhile, lots of new production capacity is in the pipeline and, if or when it is built, it may add additional competition pressure. This may present a problem in Pakistan if capacity utilisation levels drop but input costs keep on going up.

Türkçimento’s Volkan Bozay took to the airwaves last week to raise the issues that the war in Ukraine is causing for Turkey-based cement producers. The head of the Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association explained, to the local Bloomberg HT channel, that the dramatic jump in the price of Newcastle Coal posed a serious threat to the sector. The price jumped nearly US$100/t in a single day in early March 2022. Bozay said that the cost of cement from a plant using imported coal would consequently rise by around US$15/t. He added that the association’s members had an average of 15 – 20 days of coal stocks.

Graph 1: Price of coal, March 2020 – March 2021. Source: Trading Economics.

In a separate press release Türkçimento revealed that Turkey, as a whole, imported approximately US$1.5bn of coal from Russia in 2021. The cement industry imported about 5Mt of coal in 2021, from all sources, although the majority of this came from Russia. Coal shipments from Russia since the start of the war were reported as ‘very limited or even not possible.’ It was further explained that each US$10/t increase in the price of coal put up plant production costs by US$1.5/t of cement.

Naturally Bozay’s appearance on a television news show carried a lobbying aspect. He called for government import standards – such as the sulphur ratio, lower heating values and volatile matter limits - to be relaxed to allow coal to be imported more freely from sources such as Colombia, Indonesia and South Africa. There was also a push to let in more alternative fuels such as tyres and waste-derived fuels. The bit that Bozay didn’t mention though was how many of his members had long term coal supply contracts in place to cushion them, from short term price inflation at least. Yet, if coal shipments from Russia have simply stopped, then the price is irrelevant. A cement kiln configured to run on coal stops when it uses up its stocks.

Turkey was the world’s fifth largest cement producer in 2021 according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Türkçimento data shows that in 2020 it exported 145,000t of cement to Russia by sea. Overall it exported 16.3Mt of cement and 13.5Mt of clinker. The US, Israel, Syria, Haiti and Libya were the top destinations for cement. Notably, Ukraine was the sixth largest recipients of cement, with 752,000t imported, although anti-dumping legislation introduced in mid-2021 looked set to reduce it until the war started. Ghana, Ivory Coast, Guinea, Cameroon and Belgium were the principal recipients of clinker. Cumulative cement exports for the year to October 2021 were up by 3% year-on-year compared to the first 10 months of 2020. Clinker exports were down by 27% though. Overall domestic production and sales in Turkey rose by 9.5%, suggested an estimated production figure of 79Mt for 2021.

Other fallout in the cement sector from the war in Ukraine this week included Ireland-based CRH’s decision to quit the Russian market. It entered the region in 1998 through a subsidiary based in Finland and was operating seven ready-mixed concrete plants via its LujaBetomix joint venture. CRH says that all operations in Russia have now stopped. In 2021 it sold its lime business in Russia, Fels Izvest, to Russia-based Bonolit. Although selling concrete plants is not trivial, these are far cheaper assets than clinker production lines. Germany-based HeidelbergCement, Italy-based Buzzi Unicem and Switzerland-based Holcim each operate at least one integrated cement plant in Russia. So far these companies have publicly expressed dismay at the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Ukraine and made donations to the Red Cross.

Graph 2: European Union Emission Trading Scheme price, 2020 – March 2022. Source: Sandbag.

Finally, one more surprise this week has been a crash in the European Union (EU) Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) carbon price from a high of Euro96/t in early February 2022 to Euro58/t on 7 March 2022. As other commentators have stated, normally the carbon price would be expected to follow the energy market, but this hasn’t happened. Instead investors have pulled out, possibly to maintain liquidity for other markets.

With the US set to ban Russian oil, gas and coal imports and phase-outs to varying degrees promised by the UK and the EU in 2022, we can expect more turbulence from energy markets in the coming days. As the Turkish example above shows, all of this can... and will... have effects on cement production.