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Ed Sullivan, the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) chief economist was in tub-thumbing mood last week at the IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Conference in Calgary, Canada. The headline figures that the PCA put out in a press release was a forecast of a 3.5% rise in cement consumption in 2018 and 2019. Yet behind this in a stirring speech given to a cement industry crowd craving growth was a tale of riches ahead. The audience lapped it up. There was only one problem: nothing has really happened yet to make any if this happen. It always seems to be riches ahead. As Sullivan freely put it, “Trump policies will impact cement… But we don’t know what they are!”

Sullivan broke down his forecast into three sections that hinged around President Trump’s desired policy changes kicking in from about the third quarter of 2019. At this point, owing to lack of information about what the Trump administration actually wants to do, Sullivan freely broke open the assumptions. These covered issues such as a tax reform, infrastructure budgeting, immigration reforms and more. As he explained it all of these issues interact, so that reducing taxes potentially pushes national debt up making infrastructure spending harder. Owing to the lack of specifics from the current administration though Sullivan was forced to resort to the more solid plans of Democratic presidential contenders Hillary Clinton and even Bernie Saunders for nuggets of information of how ‘a government’ might act. For example, he used a breakdown of Saunders’s intended infrastructure spend to try and predict how Trump’s policies could play out. Increases in highway building from the overall infrastructure spend in this context being good news for the cement industry. And as for Sullivan’s view on the impact of the Trump border wall: ‘overrated’.

The new forecasts for 2018 and 2019 appear to be retrenchment given that the PCA was predicting growth of 4% for 2016 in the middle of that year. It subsequently reduced its estimate to 2.7% for 2016 by December 2016 after the presidential election. However its figures for 2017 and 2018 have increased since the December forecast. Sullivan predicted that growth will start to surpass 5% in 2020 once Trump’s policies have time to make waves. The crescendo of his presentation at the IEEE-IAS/PCA was a prognostication of an extra requirement of 14Mt of cement in 2021 and 2022. Sullivan topped this off by saying that, “We have the supply infrastructure in place right now.” However, some delegates informally questioned afterwards where that cement might actually come from with mass international clinker capacity waiting in the wings from places like Vietnam and new cement plants such as the McInnis Cement plant in Quebec expressively targeted at the US import market about to come on line.

Sullivan has a tricky job trying to predict what will happen next in the US cement industry and sometimes his forecasts seems to change as much as the weather that cement company financial reports often blame their poor returns on. This column knows a little bit how he feels. As Sullivan’s biography points out he’s been cited by the Chicago Federal Reserve as the most accurate forecaster regarding economic growth among 30 top economists. In short he’s the best we’ve got. But Donald Trump’s approach to government so far has made his job exponentially harder. As we’ve said more than a few times when describing the US cement market, the basis are there for growth but something is holding back faster growth. Will Trump be the catalyst to break the 5% growth barrier? Looks like we’ll have to wait until late 2019 to find out.

Elsewhere, the conference brought together a large cross-section of the North American industry. Surprisingly perhaps given the change in leadership at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) several parts of the speaker and discussion programme focused on coping with National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP), carbon tax schemes in Canada and California and practical carbon capture methods at the plant level. The key here seemed to be a piecemeal approach that may not necessarily be at odds with less government environmental legislation. Next year’s outing in Nashville, Tennessee looks set to be an even more important event, especially if more on Trump's infrastructure plans become known.

Mexico: Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua (GCC) has appointed Luis Carlos Arias Laso as its new Chief Financial Officer. Luis Carlos Arias has worked for GCC since 1996 in the Planning, Finance, and Corporate Treasury functions. He holds an undergraduate degree in financial administration and an MBA, both from the Tecnológico de Monterrey (ITESM). He is also a graduate of the senior management program of the Instituto Panamericano de Alta Dirección de Empresas (IPADE).

Dominican Republic: Alejandro Ramirez Cantu has been appointed as the president of Cemex Dominican Republic. Ramirez succeeds Carlos Emilio Gonzalez, who has held the position since 2011, according to the Diario Libre newspaper. Ramirez will also be responsible for the operations of Cemex in Bahamas and Haiti. He has worked for the building materials producer since 2000, managing operations in Thailand, Puerto Rico and Costa Rica.

Germany: Michael Ambros has been appointed as the managing director of KA Schmersal, part of the Schmersal Group. Ambros is responsible for the Administration and Sales & Marketing divisions on a global basis. Fellow managing director Michael Mandel will run the technical divisions alongside Ambros. The company’s management team includes both Ambros and Mandel, plus two managing shareholders, Heinz and Philip Schmersal. The Schmersal Group develops and produces a range of switchgear and control devices.

Philippines: Cemex Philippines and CBMI Construction have signed a contract for the construction of a 1.5Mt/yr production line at the Solid Cement Plant in Rizal. The scope of the deal covers quarry crushing to package and dispatch, including engineering, equipment supply, civil work, erection, training and commissioning. CBMI say it is the first collaboration between the subsidiary of Sinoma and Cemex. No value for the order has been disclosed.

Cameroon: Mira’s plans to build a 1Mt/yr cement plant have taken a step forward with an investment of US$55m. The investment is a continuation of an agreement signed with the government in late 2015, according to the African Press Agency. The project intends to use a 2013 private investment incentives law granting tax exemptions over a 5 – 10 year period to set up the plant.

Myanmar: Residents have signed a petition asking the Karen National Union (KNU) to cancel the Min Lwin Mountain quarry and cement plant project. Local activists say that the plant could lead to environmental concerns and land disputes, according to local press. The Phyu Min Tun Company Limited started mineral tests at the site in 2014. However, the KNU suspended the project in May 2016 in response to protests and complaints lodged by the Min Lwin Area Natural Environment Protection Committee. Despite the cancellation representatives of the KNU have continued to discuss the project with local residents leading to renewed opposition.

Jamaica: A strike has closed down the Caribbean Cement Company’s Rockfort plant. The industrial action also prevented locals accessing a ship-based book fair via the plant’s jetty, according to the Jamaica Observer newspaper. The cement company says it is in negotiations with the National Workers' Union (NWU) to reach a new collective labour agreement. It has also informed the Ministry of Labour and Social Security about the industrial action. Work at the site was expected to resume in late May 2017. Cemex took over Trinidad Cement, the majority shareholder of the Caribbean Cement Company in early 2017.

Pakistan: Power Cement has ordered a 7700t/day production line from FLSmidth for its plant at Nooriabad. The new line will be the third production at the site run by Arif Habib Group. The engineering, procurement and supply contract includes a complete range of equipment from crushing to packing and cement loading. No value for the order has been disclosed.

The order includes an ATOX 55 vertical mill for raw grinding, an ATOX 25 vertical mill for coal grinding, an EV 250x250 Hammer Impact Crusher, stacker and reclaimer systems for storage, a ROTAX-2 rotary kiln with low NO_x ILC calciner, a JETFLEX burner prepared for future refuse derived fuel (RDF) use, a FLSmidth Cross-Bar cooler and two OK 39-4 vertical mills for cement grinding. Commissioning for the project is scheduled for the end of 2018.

Brazil: Votorantim’s net revenue from its cement business fell by 14% year-on-year to US$731m in first quarter of 2017 from US$848m in the same period in 2016. The cement and steel producer blamed the continuing decline on an 8% drop in cement consumption which triggered lower sales volumes and prices. Negative currency exchange effects also contributed to the situation as the country continued to suffer from the on going political crisis and the resulting negative effects on the local economy. The company’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for its cement division decreased by 49% to US$60.9m from US$119m.

Outside of Brazil the group started up a 1.2Mt/yr expansion project in Turkey in April 2017. In North America its good performance driven by strong demand and cost optimisation helped to offset the group’s overall performance. In China the group sold ‘non-core’ assets worth Euro30m in May 2017.