Displaying items by tag: GCW315

After a couple of weeks looking at the capacity-rich cement markets of Angola and Vietnam, we turn our attention this week to some of those countries on the receiving end of overcapacity.

Costa Rica is an unlikely place to start but it came to our attention this week due to a short but significant news item. In summary, the amount of cement imported into Costa Rica increased by a factor of 10 between 2014 and 2016, from around 10,000t to over 100,000t. This is around 5% of its 2Mt/yr domesitic capacity, so the change is already fairly big news. The fact that an incredible 97% of this came from just one country, China, makes the story far more interesting as it shows the effects that Chinese overcapacity can have on smaller markets.

But when we look at how the value of the cement imports has changed over time, we see an even more dynamic shift. While the amount of cement imported into the country increased by nearly 10-fold, the value of the same imports only increased by around half as much between 2014 and 2016. If these figures can be taken at face value, the implication is stark. Taking the very low base as effectively ‘zero,’ each tonne of cement imported must cost around half as much as it used to.

Digging a little deeper and the picture gets more complicated. While they have fallen, Costa Rican cement prices have not fallen by 50% and why the sudden deluge of imports anyway? In 2015 the country changed its rules on cement imports to facilitate more flexible imports and lower prices for consumers. It did this by changing a regulation relating to how long cement can be stored, previously set at just 45 days, with the aim of allowing cement to come from further afield and, crucially, in bulk rather than bags.

The effects on price were immediate. Previously as high as US$13/bag (50kg) in December 2014, fairly high by global standards, Sinocem, the first Chinese importer, immediately sold its first shipment at US$10/bag. This effect of lower prices has now forced the average sales prices down to around US$10/bag across the country by 2017. This is good for consumers but not necessarily the local plants.

Back in 2015, the two local integrated plants operated by Cemex and Holcim warned that cement quality would suffer if cement bags were not used within 45 days. This apparently self-serving ‘warning’ went unheeded by the Ministry of Economy, Industry and Trade (MEIC), which pointed out that other countries in South America, as well as the European Union and United States, had no analogous short use-by dates for cement bags.

The rule remains in place, although discontent rumbles on. Indeed LafargeHolcim noted in its third quarter results for 2016 that ‘Costa Rica was adversely affected by increased foreign imports.’  This may well be a little bit of posturing and it doesn’t square with the fact that Costa Rica exported three times more cement that it imported in 2016. Of total exports of 0.34Mt, over 95% went to neighbouring Nicaragua, which has a single 0.6Mt/yr wet process plant owned by Cemex. It seems that the two Costa Rican plants have found a way to keep a little bit of the Chinese producers’ margin for themselves.

Of course, Chinese cement overcapacity doesn’t only affect the Central American market. It has been rippling all around the Pacific Rim. In July 2017, this column looked at the decision by Cementos Bío Bío to stop making clinker at its Talcahuano plant in Chile. It now favours grinding imported clinker from Asia. Before that, Holcim New Zealand closed its Westport cement plant in 2016, finally admitting that domestic clinker was not viable.

In the grand scheme of things, this all makes sense. The market has forced those operating on thin margins to adjust. Ultimately, the end consumer is likely to benefit from lower prices, at least for as long as reliable low-cost imports can be secured. What happens, however, if China actually gets round to curtailing its rampant cement capacity, or simply decides to charge more for its cement? Flexible imports, the main aim of the Costa Rican rule change, may then prove vital, as long as there is more than one international supplier of cement.

Dominican Republic: Colombian cement producer Cementos Argos has announced the appointment of Gary Manuel de la Rosa as its new Director General in the Dominican Republic. Previously, de la Rosa acted as a director of the industrial business unit at Cementos Argos in the Caribbean and Central American region.

Ghana: President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo has laid the foundation stone for a new cement plant in the Tema Free Zones near Accra. The US$55m grinding plant, to be operated by CBI Ghana, will take a year to complete. It will produce and supply premium cement under the brand name Supacem. The company is expected to employ some 400 staff when it commences operations.

In remarks before the ground-breaking ceremony, the President said that his government would continue to provide regulatory support and ensure a business-friendly environment that would engender competitiveness to enable the cement industry to thrive. He said the growing competition in the sector was leading to healthy competition that was benefiting consumers.

With CBI only the latest entrant to the cement sector, President Akufo-Addo was optimistic that the company would diversify the sector, promote healthy competition and further improve product standards. He added that the government was considering the use of concrete for constructing durable roads, envisaging a huge demand for cement in the near future.

Ireland: A proposed Euro100m rise in Ireland’s green energy levy threatens the recovery in construction, according to building materials suppliers. The Commission for Energy Regulation (CER) wants to increase the Public Service Obligation (PSO) levy on electricity bills by Euro104m to Euro496.5m from October 2018 to support renewable energy developers and peat-fired power plants.

However, cement and concrete manufacturers, whose businesses face high-energy bills, have warned the regulator that such a move could hit jobs and endanger the recovery in construction. In a submission to the commission, manufacturer Kilsaran International said that, "Irish electricity prices are among the highest in Europe and the yearly increases in the PSO levy only serve to undermine the cost base and competitiveness of Irish companies, thereby limiting the potential for growth and job creation.”

Many other companies in the industry submitted versions of the same letter to CER analyst Gráinne Black, pointing at the likely cost of the increase to their businesses and its implications for job creation.

According to the CER large energy users, which include cement and concrete producers, will pay Euro234.2m of the Euro496.5m total. The charge guarantees the price paid for electricity to wind farms, other renewable energy producers and peat-fired plants. It is meant to implement government policy to support green electricity generation.

UK: Hanson Cement, the UK subsidiary of HeidelbergCement, has project that it could start construction of a Euro22m new cement mill at is Padeswood plant in north Wales within 2017. The new vertical roller mill for cement grinding will improve the plant’s efficiency, reduce energy consumption and increase its cement output. It will also ensure the long-term viability of the site, securing around 100 jobs.

Currently the plant’s four ageing cement mills have significantly less capacity than the kiln, which leads to Hanson distributing clinker for grinding at other sites in the country. Hanson is also committed to investing in new rail loading facilities to allow cement to be dispatched by train. This will reduce truck movements.

Brazil: According to data from SNIC, Brazil's national cement industry association, domestic cement sales came to 4.7Mt in July 2017, down by 10.5% compared to July 2016. Sales per working day were also down by 10.5% in the year-on-year comparison, but up by 3.3% compared to June 2017.

In the first seven months of 2017, domestic cement sales came to 30.7Mt, a fall of 9.1% from the same period of 2016, while in the 12 months ending July 2017 sales totalled 54.3Mt, down by 9.8% year-on-year. Apparent consumption in July 2017 stood at 4.7Mt, down by 10.1% from July 2016, with an accumulated 9.7% drop in apparent consumption in the 12 months to 31 July 2017. SNIC notes that the figures are in line with expectations for the period, though there may have been some impact from the political and economic instability in recent months. SNIC forecasts a 7% drop in domestic cement sales in 2017.

Costa Rica: According to a report released by the government trade promotion agency Procomer, imports of cement into Costa Rica expanded from 10,418t in 2014 to 107,294t in 2016, representing a growth of 930% in only two years. Approximately 97% of the 2016 figure corresponds to cement imports from China, which is now the main origin of imported cement in the country.

In value terms, cement imports reached US$18.3m in 2016, only 5.4 times more than in 2014. Cemex and Holcim are the main cement manufacturers operating in Costa Rica. If the import volumes and prices are to be taken at face value, domestic plants would appear to be under increasing price pressure from the imported cement from China.

Nigeria: Over the weekend of 12-13 August 2017 Dangote Cement gave out prizes totalling US$1.3m to its distributors and customers in its on-going Dangote Retailers Bonanza – Season 2. 10 ‘Star Winner’ retailers from the company's West region claimed their prizes. Some went home with 1200 bags of cement and a 40ft container and others won 600 bags and a 20ft container.

The process of awarding the prizes involved moving cement directly to traders, which, according to Dangote Cement, had the desired effect of raising interest among other cement traders.

Funmi Sanni, the West Regional Sales Director, said the decision to take the products to the retailers in their respective place of trade was to prove that the bonanza was real. She explained that the management designed the bonanza to reward its loyal retailers and help them shore up their businesses, saying this is why it has also included containers in the winning package.

Colombia: Cementos Argos has posted an 84.5% fall in its first half net profit in 2017 to US$19.3m. It made US$124.4m in the first half of 2016. It said that its operating revenues dropped by 3.9% year-on-year to US$1.42bn the first half of 2017, from US$1.48bn a year earlier.

Russia: LafargeHolcim’s local subsidiary Holcim Russia has launched an upgrade at its cement plant in Saratov Region at a total cost of US$300m. The project to build a new dry process line began in 2012 and has increased the plant’s capacity to 4500t/day. According to local press the plant meets all modern standards and environmental safety requirements. It is expected that the line will be at full capacity by the end of 2017.