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It's official: the big boys are heading to India this week.

First Lafarge head Bruno Lafont announced broad expansion plans in the subcontinent. Then a Holcim presentation emerged from earlier in 2012 projecting that the company expects India's overall construction market to take the global third position after China and the US by 2020.

With the Indian construction share set to rise from US$360bn in 2010 to US$840bn in 2020 that's one massive market share up for grabs. Throw in some interpretation from India's 2011 census and the signs are that its population could overtake China's by 2030. Sounds like an absolutely perfect opportunity for your average embattled European cement corporation!

Except that there's no such thing as a sure bet. As we covered previously, Indian cement consumption fell for the first time in 20 years in August 2011. The cause was put down to political problems holding up infrastructure in key states. In March 2012 we've had two stories that have impacted upon the local industry. First the Railway Board of India hiked the freight rates by 24%. Then the Union Budget for 2012-13 increased the excise and service tax. Clearly everybody wants a piece of the 'inevitable' bonanza. If anything impedes India's growth in the next decade there may be bargains going for cement on the export market.

Elsewhere this week we have stories on the potential cost of a proposed air pollution ruling upon two plants in the US state of Montana, more information on a revival in the Gulf Cooperation Council region and more capacity growth in Indonesia.

Denmark: Carsten R Lund will be appointed new Group Executive Vice President of FLSmidth and a member of the Group Executive Management in July 2012. He will replace Christian Jepsen, who will be joining Alcoa, one of FLSmidth's global mining customers. Lund will be heading the new global Bulk Materials Division that was formed as part of the new FLSmidth Group structure announced in February 2012.

Lund, age 49, is a Danish citizen, Executive MBA and Mechanical Engineer (BSc.), who has been employed by the FLSmidth Group for 24 years in varying managerial positions. Most recently, Lund has headed the implementation of a major business system program for the entire FLSmidth group as program director. Prior to that, he was CEO of FLSmidth Airtech from 2007-2011 and responsible for growing and developing FLSmidth's Air Pollution Control business to become a major global player.

China: Analysts expect the profitability of China's leading cement producers to weaken in 2012 due to slowing demand and falling prices.

SWS Research analyst Ye Rong expects the earnings of China's second-biggest cement producer, Anhui Conch Cement, to plummet by half in the first quarter, because the Yangtze River Delta, where most of Anhui Conch's sales are based, has seen cement price drops of 5% to 20% since the Lunar New Year, on 23 January 2012. Citic Securities forecasts the Hong Kong-listed firm's net profit will drop by 40% in the first quarter.

The net profit of Anhui Conch soared by 88.1% to US$1.84bn in 2011, while revenue surged by 41% to US$7.71bn. The state-owned enterprise's results for 2011 were in line with market expectations, wrote Luo Yang in a Nomura report. However, Anhui Conch's profit margin was likely to deteriorate in 2012, due to downward pressure on selling prices, rising costs and decelerating productivity, Luo wrote. "Under severe overcapacity, the company is subject to higher price risk in comparison with most of its peers."

Anhui Conch chairman Guo Wensan said the industry would face unfavourable factors in 2012, such as a slowdown in investment growth, regulation of the real-estate sector and rising energy prices. Anhui Conch plans a capital expenditure of US$1.27bn in 2012 less than the US$1.44bn in 2011.

In an exception to this trend, mainland China's biggest cement producer, China National Building Materials, announced it expected net profit to jump more than 100% from 2011. However, JP Morgan expects prices and profit per tonne for most mainland cement producers in 2012 to be up to 10% lower than 2011, and has trimmed its earning estimates for most listed cement companies. The growth in the mainland's cement consumption would be 5% to 8% in 2012, against 11% in 2011, the China Cement Association said.

The net profit of China National Materials (Sinoma) rose by 32.78% to US$231m in 2011, while turnover grew by 14% to US$8.04bn. The Hong Kong-listed firm's cement sales surged by 40% to US$3.21bn in 2011, while sales of its hi-tech materials increased by 7.7% to US$981m and its cement equipment business dipped by 0.1% to US$3.85bn.

Sinoma's net profit in 2011 was 10% below market consensus and 11% below Nomura's estimate. This was mainly due to much lower top-line growth and a disappointing margin performance. The state-owned firm's biggest business sector, cement equipment, suffered a small drop in 2011, because China's fixed-asset investment in cement fell by 8.3% in 2011, Luo wrote. "We expect it to further decrease by 15% in 2012." Sinoma's cement prices were under significant downward pressure, especially in Xinjiang province, due to worsening overcapacity, Luo warned.

Philippines: Holcim Philippines expects a modest growth rate of 5-6% in 2012 as it attempts to recover from a steep drop in net profit in 2011, according to its chief operations officer Roland van Wijen.

The Philippine subsidiary of Switzerland-based Holcim Ltd posted a net profit of US$47m in 2011, down by 47.1% from US$90m in 2010 because of weak demand and higher production costs. Sales revenues dropped 9% to US$496m due to a surge in prices of coal and electricity, the biggest cost components in cement production.

"Last year was a challenging year for us because reduced government spending meant that there was less structure built, which has a direct correlation to cement consumption. Also, the (operational cost) has been increasing which had a marked effect on our bottom line. Those are the elements we are recovering from," Van Wijnen said at the launch of Holcim's new CSR project. He added that the company is currently cutting production cost by stepping up the use of waste materials as an alternative to coal.

Holcim Philippines currently has a market share of one third of the cement industry and at present the company has no plans of expanding its market share. "We will go there when our customers want us to go. Right, now, the market has an over-capacity so significantly increasing our market share will not contribute to growth," Van Wijnen said.

Van Wijnen said the company's growth would be greatly driven by more projects that would be approved under the government's Public-Private Partnership (PPP) scheme. The company is pursuing opportunities for supplying winning bidders in the PPP projects. Van Wijnen said the company is optimistic that both the government and the private sector would increase infrastructure spending this year.

With a workforce of over 1700, Holcim Philippines operates four plants in La Union, Bulacan, Misamis Oriental and Davao. In January 2012 Holcim reopened its cement plant in Calaca, Batangas, to take advantage of an anticipated surge in demand for new buildings and infrastructure in Metro Luzon.

Indonesia: Indonesia's second-largest cement producer, PT Indocement ,has announced that its recent expansion drive will increase production to up to 30Mt/yr by 2017, up by almost 50% from the 2012 target of 20.6Mt/yr.

One of these projects is the construction of a cement mill in Citeureup, West Java, with an expected production capacity of 1.9Mt/yr. The mill is scheduled for completion in 2013.

Besides the new cement mill, the company is in the final planning stage of constructing a cement factory with a capacity of 4.4Mt/yr at an existing location (brownfield), also in Citeureup. Additionally the company is conducting final studies for the construction of two new cement factories (greenfield) in Central Java and outside Java, each of which will have capacities of up to 2.5Mt/yr.

Finance director Tju Lie Sukanto said the company would fund the expansion projects partly with US$757m of internal cash. He added that this year's market conditions, such as the continuing strong residential-market trends, thanks to an expanding middle class, would further facilitate the company in reaching its growth targets.

India: Holcim expects the Indian construction market to more than double by 2020. According to one of the company's presentations made earlier in 2012, the Indian construction market will replace Japan as the third largest, after China and the US, by 2020, by which time, emerging markets will outweigh mature markets.

At US$360bn, India accounted for 5% of the US$7.2tn global construction market in 2010. However, by 2020, India is likely to capture a 7% market share, at US$840bn, of the US$12tn global market.

Holcim, which entered India post-2000, has its presence in the country through two established brands: ACC and Ambuja Cements. Collectively, these companies have the largest market share in India. The company currently has an Indian capacity of close to 57Mt/yr and is ahead of domestic giant Aditya Birla Group's UltraTech Cement, at 52Mt/yr.

Both have plans to augment capacities. UltraTech has plans to take its overall capacity to 75Mt by 2015. Holcim's Ambuja Cements will pump in around US$365m by 2013 to add more capacity.

According to India's 12th five year Plan (2012-17) document, the two segments most important to construction activity are infrastructure and housing. Since infrastructure spending is expected to go up to 9% of gross domestic product (GDP) or US$1tn for the Plan period (2012-17), this should translate into double-digit growth for the demand segment.

The Indian cement sector is the world's second largest, after China. During the current Plan (2007-12), cement players invested around US$10bn to add fresh capacities of 150Mt. According to the 12th Plan documents on the industry, the sector would need to increase capacity to 470Mt by 2017.

Indonesia: PT Indocement, Indonesia's second largest cement producer, has announced that its fourth-quarter 2011 net profit rose 20% as demand for construction jumped in Southeast Asia's biggest economy. The firm's fourth quarter net profit was US$109m in 2011, compared with US$91m in the same period in 2010.

The HeidelbergCement subsidiary reported a full year 2011 net profit of US$392m, up by 12% from US$351m in 2010. Analysts forecast that the full-year 2011 net profit will rise by 11% to US$391m. Indocement's 2010 full-year net revenue rose by 25% to US$1.5bn.

India: Lafarge is focused on expanding its own operations in India and isn't considering any acquisitions at present, according to its chairman Bruno Lafont.

"We will continue to grow, mostly through internal growth and by expanding our existing cement plants and growing through several green-field plants," Lafont told reporters on the sidelines of an event.

He said the company will continue with its program to increase production capacity in India by 2Mt/yr, but he didn't say when the expansion will be completed. Lafarge has increased its capacity in India from 6.5Mt/yr in 2010 to 8Mt/yr in 2012. Lafont said the company will continue investing in its concrete and construction aggregates businesses in India.

The company recently expanded its capacity through new production lines at Jojobera in Jharkhand and at Mejia in West Bengal. Its four greenfield projects in Rajasthan, Karnataka, Meghalaya and Himachal Pradesh are in different stages of progress. Lafarge entered the Indian market in 1999 with the acquisition of Tata Steel's cement business. This was followed by the purchase of the Raymond Cement facility in 2001. Lafarge currently has four cement plant across the country - in Sonadih and Arasmeta in Chhattisgarh, Jojobera and Mejia.

Lithuania: Akmene Cement, Lithuania's only cement producer, says it will be affected by the European Union's sanctions against Belarus. Previously the producer sold cement to the Belarusian company Triple, owned by oligarch Yury Chyzh, which has been affected by the blacklist.

"We discussed it today at our company. It is hard to say what it is going to be like now," Arturas Zaremba, head of Akmenes Cementas, stated. "I do not know myself how those sanctions would work. Does it mean that we will not be able to maintain any business relations with them? We will need to clear that up."

EU foreign ministers decided to impose sanctions against 29 Belarus companies and 12 individuals related with Alexander Lukashenko's regime. Akmenes Cementas exported around 70,000t of cement to Belarus in 2011.

Kuwait: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) cement companies have emerged from two years of decline following the credit crisis with a strong 14.2% increase in revenue, according to a report by Global Investment House. Sector profits, however, increased by 2.7% in 2011. Revenues reached US$4.6bn in 2011 compared to US$4bn in 2010. Net profits increased from US$1.44bn in 2010 to US$1.48bn in 2011.

By country, Saudi Arabia, Oman, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait overturned declining revenues in 2010 and all four countries reported increasing sales for 2011 except Qatar. UAE, which witnessed declining sales revenue since 2008, enjoyed a 5.9% increase in sales to reach US$940m. Yet net profit was negative for the first time since the researchers started to compile UAE cement data.

Oman witnessed a 12.8% increase in sales revenue reaching US$342.3m in 2011, the second highest revenue in Oman's cement history. However Oman reported a 39.4% decrease in profits in 2011. Kuwait reported a 5.4% increase in revenue reaching US$66.9m in 2011, but it posted a 47.1% decrease in net profits compared to 2010. Qatar was the only GCC country reporting declining sales and profits. Saudi Arabia posted a healthy 22.6% increase in sales revenue and a 25.2% increase in net profits in 2011.

According to Saudi government officials, Saudi Arabia will spend an estimated US$400bn on large infrastructure projects from 2012 until 2017. Ever since the country banked upon diversification, the cement sector witnessed a tremendous pick up in demand from less than 20Mt in 2005 to 49Mt in 2011. In the wake of increasing demand locally, the government imposed a conditional ban on cement exports in 2010 that further pushed demand. Saudi Arabia lifted a ban on cement imports in March 2012 and neighbouring exporter nations, Oman and the UAE, are expected to benefit greatly from the change.