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The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) took on direct implications for the international cement industry this week when an Italian vendor infected with the virus visited Lafarge Africa in Ogun state, Nigeria. The cement producer said that it had ‘immediately’ started contact tracing and started isolation, quarantine and disinfection protocols. This included initiating medical protocols at its Ewekoro integrated plant, although local press reported the unit’s production lines were still open. Around 100 people were thought to have had contact with the man.

Global Cement has been covering the epidemic since early February 2020 when the virus’ effect on the construction industry in China started to become evident. First, an industry event CementTech was postponed, financial analysts started forecasting negative financial consequences for producers and plants started going into coronavirus-related maintenance or suspension cycles. Then at least one plant started to dispose of clinical waste and now China National Building Material Group (CNBM) is considering how to restart operations at scale. Also, this week Hong Kong construction companies reportedly laid off 50,00 builders due to a lack of cement due to the on-going production suspension in China.

The major cement companies have identified that their first business risk from coronavirus comes from simply not having the staff to make building materials. LafargeHolcim’s chief executive officer Jan Jenisch summed up the group’s action in its annual financial results for 2020 this week when he said, “We are taking all necessary measures to protect the health of our employees and their families.” Other major cement producers that Global Cement has contacted have placed travel restrictions for staff and reduced access to production facilities.

The next risk for cement companies comes from a drop in economic activity. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts a global 0.5% year-on-year fall in real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 2.4%, with China and India suffering the worst declines in GDP growth at around 1%. The global figure is the worst since the -0.1% rate reported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2009. The OECD blamed the disease control measures in China, as well as the direct disruption to global supply chains, weaker final demand for imported goods and services and regional declines in international tourism and business travel. This forecast is contingent on the epidemic peaking in China in the first quarter of 2020 and new cases of the virus in other countries being sporadic and contained. So far the latter does not seem to have happened and the OECD’s ‘domino’ scenario predicts a GDP reduction of 1.5%. All of this is likely to drag on construction activity and demand for cement and concrete for some time to come.

Moving to cement markets and production, demand is likely to be slowed as countries implement various levels of isolation and quarantine leading to reduced residential demand for buildings directly and as workforces are restricted. Business and infrastructure projects may follow as economies slow and governments refocus spending respectively.

The UK government, for example, is basing its coronavirus action plan on an outbreak lasting four to six months. This could potentially happen in many countries throughout 2020. This has the potential to create a rolling effect of disruption as different nations are hit. Assuming China has passed the peak of its local epidemic then its producers are likely to report reduced income in the first quarter of 2020. The effect may even be reduced somewhat due to the existing winter peak shifting measures, whereby production is shut down to reduce pollution. Elsewhere, cement companies in the northern hemisphere may see their busy summer months affected if the virus spreads. The effect on balance sheets may be visible with indebted companies and/or those with more exposure to affected areas disproportionately affected. The wildcard here is whether coronavirus transmits as easily in warmer weather as it does in the cooler winter months. In this case there may be a difference, generally speaking, between the global north and south. Exceptions to watch could be cooler southern places such as New Zealand, Argentina and Chile. Shortages, as mentioned above in Taiwan, potentially should be short term, owing to global overcapacity of cement production, as end users find supplies from elsewhere.

The cement industry is also likely to encounter disruption to its supply chains. Major construction projects in South Asia are already reporting delays as Chinese workers have failed to return following quarantine restrictions after the Chinese New Year celebrations. As other countries suffer uncontrolled outbreaks then similar travel restrictions may follow. Global Cement has yet to see any examples of materials in the cement industry supply chain being affected. On the production side, raw mineral supply tends to be local but fuels, like coal, often travel further. Fuel markets may prove erratic as larger consumers cut back and suppliers like the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) react by restricting production.

On the maintenance side cement plants need a wide array of parts such as refractories, motors, lubricants, gears, wear parts for mills, ball bearings and so forth. Some of these may have more complicated supply chain routes than they used to have 30 years ago. On the supplier side any new or upgrade plant project is vulnerable if necessary parts are delayed by a production halt, logistics delayed and/or staff are prevented from visiting work sites. Chinese suppliers’ reliance on using their own workers, for example, might well be a hindrance here until (or if) international quarantine rules are normalised. Other suppliers’ weak points in their supply chains may become exposed in turn. This would benefit suppliers with sufficiently robust chains.

Chinese reductions in NO₂ emissions in relation to the coronavirus industrial shutdown have been noted in the press. A wider global effect could well be seen too. This could potentially pose problems to CO₂ emissions trading schemes around the world as CO₂ prices fall and carbon credits abound. This might also have deleterious effects on carbon capture and storage (CCS) development if it becomes redundant due to low CO₂ pricing. In the longer-term this might undesirable, as by the time the CO₂ prices pick up again we will be that much nearer to the 2050 sustainability deadlines.

COVID-19 is a new pandemic in all but name with major secondary outbreaks in South Korea, Iran and Italy growing fast and cases being reported in many other countries. The bad news though is that individual countries and international bodies have to decide how to balance the economic damage disease control will cause, versus the effects of letting the disease run unchecked. Yet as more information emerges on how to tackle coronavirus, the good news is that most people will experience flu-like symptoms and nothing more. Chinese action shows that it can be controlled through public health measures while a vaccine is being developed.

Until then, frequent handwashing is a ‘given’ and many people and organisations are running risk calculations on aspects of what they do. It may seem flippant but even basic human interaction such as the handshake needs to be reconsidered for the time being.

Zimbabwe: Lafarge Zimbabwe has appointed Precious Murena-Nyika as its chief executive officer (CEO). She succeeds Siame Kaulule, who left the post in February 2020 for a new role with LafargeHolcim in South Africa, according to the News Day newspaper.

Murena-Nyika was previously director for human resources and communications at Lafarge Cement Zimbabwe. She is the immediate past president for the Institute of People Management of Zimbabwe. She holds a degree in Psychology and Masters in Business Administration from the University of Zimbabwe and a postgraduate diploma in leadership from the Harvard Business School.

UK: Lafarge Cement has appointed Stuart Hutchings as the new plant manager of its Cauldon integrated cement plant in Staffordshire. He holds over 20 years of experience in the cement industry and is a qualified chemical engineer with a master’s degree in business.

The plant produces around 1Mt/yr of cement and employs around 150 staff. LafargeHolcim’s local subsidiary Aggregate Industries is currently planning a potential investment project to develop an additional chloride bypass and a new pre-processing plant for the storage of solid and liquid alternative fuels at the plant.

Italy: Gambarotta Gschwendt has appointed Davide Gambarotta as its chief executive officer (CEO) with immediate effect. He is also its sole owner designate. Gambarotta will maintain his position as CEO and sole director of MDG Handling Solutions.

Both companies will operate jointly, under the holding company Gambarotta Group. MDG Handling Solutions will offer complete engineering and procurement (EP) and engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) projects. Gambarotta Gschwendt will design and produce equipment for bulk material handling.

UK: The Materials Handling Engineers Association (MHEA) has appointed James Bullock as its vice-president. He has been a member of the MHEA’s executive committee for several years. He succeeds Linda White, who has held the post since late 2019. White is taking the post of secretariat from 1 March 2020.

China: China National Building Material Group (CNBM) has started to resume its operations in various sectors following the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. Priority has been given to activities related to epidemic control, according to the China Daily newspaper. Its plans are aligned with instructions from the Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council to ensure stable production and operations to back the country's economic development while preventing the virus from spreading further.

Zhou Yuxian, chairman of CNBM, said that the company is aiming at grasping ‘the first market share’ after the epidemic. The state-owned company intends to watch market demand and the reactions of companies from the upstream and downstream supply chain. CNBM also released guidelines of resuming work and epidemic prevention for different sectors earlier this month.

For its cement business, CNBM has urged the resumption of full production by subsidiaries related to life and medical waste handling. CNBM has asked its other subsidiaries to restart work gradually in different batches based on market demand.

India: Production capacity utilisation in the cement industry is expected to remain below 70% in the 2020 – 2021 financial year due to new plant projects in the next two years. Credit ratings agencies ICRA, India Ratings and Crisil all forecast relatively low demand for cement compared to a decade-high of 13% in the 2019 – 2020 period, according to the Press Trust of India. Cement production rose by 0.7% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2019 – 2020 period. However, production growth has hastened since then. The ratings agencies offer different outlooks on anticipated profits look forward.

Netherlands: Royal Cement Benelux, part of Royal El Minya Cement and the Sesco Group, has acquired a new 18,500m² facility in the port of Schiedam near Rotterdam. The new facility, which includes 13,500m2 combined office, storage and operating space will be the company’s second European location. Available on the premises is 160 M1 Quay, which can receive ships up to 15,000dwt.

“The opening of Royal Cement Benelux’s new Schiedam facility is an important step towards the ambition to develop the European market,” said Martin Bakker, general manager of Royal Cement Benelux. The company intends to target its white cement products from the terminal to Germany by barge, to several locations in Belgium and the Netherlands by inland rivers and to the UK by sea.

The new location is intended to be first of several expansions for the company in 2020. Royal Cement Benelux says it wants to take former business in Western Europe from CBR since it stopped white cement production. The group is also opening an Italian terminal.

Vietnam: Xuan Thanh Cement has ordered seven liquid starters from AKA. The plant in Ha Nam Province has a cement production capacity of 5.5Mt/yr from two production lines. The most recent production line was supplied by Denmark’s FLSmidth. France’s AKA supplies a variety of liquid starters, electronic starters and power controllers for industrial end users.

India: A worker has been killed after becoming trapped in a crusher at the Bhavya Cement plant in Andhra Pradesh. The incident took place when the 28-year old worker was cleaning the belt of the crusher, according to the New Indian Express newspaper. The local authorities have inspected the plant